BRG, which agrees with other aerospace analysts that Boeing stock is priced on free cash flow, sees FCF falling beginning next year. Buckingham predicts 737 production rates—which Boeing wants to boost to 57/mo to support FCF—will be short-lived.
Buckingham sees 777 Classic delivery rates dropping from Boeing’s target of 3.5/mo to “bottom out” at 2/mo.
Weak orders for the 787 means Boeing won’t increase production rates for the 787 from 12/mo to 14/mo. BRG predicts that in 2019 Boeing will announce a rate reduction from the current 12.mo to 7/mo on one production line, and this line will be only in Charleston (SC).
Boeing VP-Marketing Randy Tinseth speaks tomorrow at the annual Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference in Lynnwood (WA). Tinseth is always the eternal optimist in his presentations. We’ll see if he addresses anything in BRG’s bearish report.
Feb. 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Russia’s Irkut designed a mainline jet to compete with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families that, from a passenger experience
viewpoint, is the best in class.
The MC-21 has a wider fuselage than the A320 (which is wider than the 737). Seats and the aisle are the widest in the class. The overhead bin space is plentiful.
But the airplane is hampered by its environment: Russia itself.
Feb. 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: China’s effort to become a viable commercial aerospace alternative was filled with rocky fits and starts for its two signature airliner programs, the AVIC ARJ-21 and the COMAC C919.
COMAC, a spin off from AVIC and yet another government-controlled entity, is already casting eyes on a 250-seat, twin-aisle design, the C929—ostensibly in a joint venture with Russia’s United Aircraft Corp.
The ARJ-21 regional jet finally entered service after delays of eight years. The C919 target EIS is now 2019, six years after the original date. The first flight hasn’t even taken place.
Chinese officials set a target EIS for the C929 of 2026.
A rough road remains ahead for each program.
Update: Airbus Jan. 11 announced a 1% list price increase. The chart has been updated.
Jan. 10, 2017: Aircraft list prices are largely unchanged for 2017, the airline industry demand cools for new aircraft.
Sales in 2017 were down for the Big Two, Airbus and Boeing. Boeing announced orders for 688 aircraft, well off of last year, which also was a major decline from the year before.
Airbus announces tomorrow, with sales expected to be in a similar range.
Bombardier and Embraer announce later this month or next.
LNC compiled the current list prices from all the manufacturers, detailed in Figure 1 below.
Airbus and Boeing discounts typically range from 40% to 60%, depending on the customer, the airplane and the size of the order. BBD and EMB discounts may also be steep, depending on the campaign.
The balance of this article is for Subscribers only.
January 06, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Before we finish of our series on airliner turbofan technology, let’s spend this Corner on what will happen on the airliner engine front during 2017.
While there is no totally new engine that comes into the market during 2017 there are a number of new variants of existing engine families that will be introduced.
If we start with the engines for regional/single aisle aircraft and then climb the thrust scale, we will cover the engines in climbing thrust class.
Jan. 3, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The New Year is here and it doesn’t look like a good one for commercial aerospace, if measured against previous outstanding years.
There are some troubling signs ahead, piling on to a slowdown in orders from last year that didn’t even reach a 1:1 book:bill.
This year looks to be worse than last. Airbus and Boeing will give their 2017 guidance on the earnings calls this month and next. Bombardier and Embraer earnings calls are a ways off, when each will provide its guidance.
But LNC believes the Big Two in particular will be hard pressed to hit a 1:1 book:bill this year and may even struggle to match 2016 sales.
Boeing’s year-end order tally comes Thursday. Airbus’ comes on Jan. 11.
Nov. 15, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Government subsidies to commercial aircraft companies appear to be increasing despite the 12-year disputes before the World Trade Organization between Europe and the US over Airbus and Boeing aid.
Yet the US and Europeans appear to be doing little to try and curb the subsidies to new competitors.
Part 3: Oct. 24, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Lessors select aircraft to add to their portfolios based on several basic criteria:
Lessors often conclude that while an airplane may be good technically and perfectly acceptable for airline use, failure to meet their specialized key criteria—notably liquidity and customer base—they may pass on the aircraft.
October 21, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In our Corners on East bloc aeronautical industries, we could see that the hardest part to master in a new civilian airliner is the engine.
Both new airliners from Russia and China (Irkut MC-21 and COMAC C919) start their lives with Western engines.
Why is this so? What are the challenges that make engines harder to create than aircraft?
We will spend several Corners on the main reasons that airliner engines are harder to do than aircraft. Read more
Oct. 20, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The past decade was a hive of activity as the Big Four OEMs launched new airplane programs and put the aircraft into service.
Airbus launched the A320neo, A330neo and A350 families. The A330neo is under production; the other two entered service early this year.
Boeing launched the 787 in late 2003 (outside the decade mark), rolled it out in 2007 and entered service with it in 2013. The 737 MAX was launched in 2011 and is in flight testing. The 777X was launched in 2013; components are in production.
Bombardier launched the CSeries in 2008; it entered service this year, after three years of delays.
Embraer launched the E-Jet E2 om 2013. Flight testing began this year.
These were supplemented by new entrants into commercial aviation: COMAC with its C919; Irkut with the MC-21; and Mitsubishi with the MRJ90. Of these, only the MRJ90 is flying. After more than two years of delays and several false starts, flight testing began in earnest this week at Moses Lake (WA) with FTA-1 (Flight Test Aircraft 1).
Development and new program launches have slowed, but the next decade is hardly going to be idle.