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By Karl Sinclair

Sept. 9, 2024, © Leeham News: China isn’t getting into the commercial aviation industry to let Airbus and Boeing supply three quarters of the market, says a consultant. The long-term outlook for the Big Two aircraft producers may be considerably more bearish than many think.

He made the following comments when asked about the new Boeing (BA) projections for the aircraft market in China, “COMAC wants to hit 150 (deliveries) in the next five years. That means that one-fourth of that China demand goes to COMAC,” said Brian Langenberg, principal and industrial strategist of Langenberg and Co. “If you believe that China got into the commercial aviation industry to let Boeing and Airbus make three-fourths of their narrow bodies aircraft,” he says people underestimate the determination of the Chinese government.

COMAC C919. Source: Leeham News.

The C919 is COMAC’s latest narrow-body jet, which began commercial service at China Eastern Airlines (CEA) in 2023. Since then, eight more have been delivered to CEA, Air China, and China Southern as COMAC slowly ramps up production. COMAC has more than 1,000 orders for the type, with the vast majority coming from airlines and lessors in China, although AerCap of Ireland has orders for 20.

COMAC’s production goals are aggressive. LNA believes the learning curve will take longer than production managers suggest. International certification by European and US regulators is also important to China and mandatory for export sales.

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