Pontifications: Final Farnborough forecast

Special Sunday edition of Pontifications.

By Scott Hamilton

July 15, 2018, © Leeham News: The Farnborough Air Show officially starts tomorrow, when airframers begin their public relations presentations and orders are announced.

As this is written on July 13, I’m doing a final update of what to expect from the show. It’s always risky making predictions. If they are overly optimistic or pessimistic, the predictor can look foolish.

But here goes.

LNC took its first forecast look June 25.

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JetBlue orders 60 A220-300s in surprise timing

July 10, 2018, (c) Leeham News: JetBlue announced an order today for 60 Airbus A220-300s, nee Bombardier CS300s. The airline took options on 60 more.

The timing is a surprise–JetBlue previously said it would not be ready to order until toward the end of the year.

The order is a blow to Embraer, which has 60 E-190s in service with JBLU. The airline had orders for 20 more, but delivery had been deferred several times. Industry insiders told LNC the order could be canceled with little or no penalty.

The order is a blow to Embraer for the flip and for the loss of a potential E2 order. The E195-E2 seats slightly fewer passengers and has less range than the A220-300.

JetBlue has a large fleet of Airbus A320ceos, a few A321ceos and a large order book for neos.

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CSeries becomes Airbus A220-100 and A220-300

By Bjorn Fehrm

July 10, 2018, © Leeham News.: Airbus launched its new A220 aircraft family today in Toulouse. The event took place at the Airbus Delivery Center at Blagnac airport with the World’s Media invited.

The Bombardier CS100 is now A220-100 and the CS300 is A220-300. The name of the newly branded family was revealed with a flyover of a CS300, sorry, A220-300 painted in Airbus colors and with the A220-300 name on the side.

Figure 1. A220-300 which flew into the A220 launch today. Source: Airbus.

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MRJ’s GTF flameout traced to manufacturing issue

Editor’s note: The Farnborough Air Show begins next week. Mitsubishi is expected to have a flying display of the MRJ90 at an international air show for the first time. This is the last of three stories from Mitsubishi’s MRJ program update in Moses Lake (WA) last month.

By Dan Catchpole

July 10, 2018, © Leeham News: An engine flameout in August 2017 that left the Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) test fleet grounded for several weeks was caused by a manufacturing quality issue on a component in the Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan’s accessory gearbox, according to a Mitsubishi executive.

Source: Mitsubishi.

Related Stories

MRJ program chief Alex Bellamy said the manufacturing quality problem caused a machined component to suffer a durability issue, leading to flameout.

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Boeing, Embraer tie-up key to NMA development

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Introduction

July 9, 2018, © Leeham News: When Boeing and Embraer announced last week the Memorandum of Understanding to form a joint venture between Boeing and Embraer Commercial Airplanes, writers and analysts jumped on the bandwagon that LNC pointed out as far back as last year.

Summary

This is:

  • A strategic play;
  • About Embraer’s engineers and low-cost production in Brazil;
  • About tapping Embraer’s resources for development of the potential Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft; and
  • About EMB’s potential lead in developing a new single-aisle aircraft to replace the 737, among other things.

Additionally, a Boeing partisan sees new trade complaint against C Series.

Related stories:

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Boeing, Embraer to create commercial company, intent for defense JV

July 5, 2018: Boeing and Embraer announced an agreement to create a new company with EMB’s commercial aircraft unit and intent to create a second JV for its defense unit.

The full press release is below the jump.

Related stories:

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Pontifications: C Series to Airbus, 10 years since program launch, lower fuel burn

By Scott Hamilton

July 2, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus officially became the majority partner yesterday of the C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership, or CSALP.

Airbus has a 50.01% stake in the LP, with Bombardier and the province of Quebec holding minority stakes.

Things will move quickly, now that Airbus has control.

Airbus is expected to announce a rebranding of the C Series at its July 10 pre-Farnborough Air Show media briefing. An aircraft is in the process of being repainted in Airbus colors for display at the event.

Bloomberg reported in April new names were to be assigned to the CS100 and CS300, probably the A210 and A230 respectively.

Construction of the new C Series Final Assembly Line in Mobile (AL) will begin sooner than expected. This was announced at the Inaugural Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference in Mobile, organized by Leeham Co. and Airfinance Journal.

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Farnborough Air Show: No NMA, unlikely A321 Plus, no Boeing-EMB tie up

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Introduction

June 25, 2018, © Leeham News: Little in the way of excitement is expected at the Farnborough Air Show next month.

There won’t be any launch of the oft-talked about Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA, aka 797).

Airbus continues to be coy about its response to the NMA. Studies about an A321neo Plus or Plus-Plus have been talked about almost as long as Boeing has been discussing the NMA. More recently, now there’s talk of an A321 XLR.

Summary

  • Expectations for incremental airplane orders at the show should be low.
  • No NMA program launch.
  • Doubtful if Airbus launches A321neo enhancements.
  • Airbus-C Series makes its debut—but to what end?
  • Mitsubishi to showcase MRJ.
  • Bombardier renews emphasis on Q400, CRJ.
  • Embraer looks for order boost.

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US start-up has a lot of Moxy

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Introduction

June 21, 2018, © Leeham News: A new US airline secured delivery positions for 60 Bombardier CS300s for deliveries from 2020, according to its business plan circulating this month.

Moxy Airlines is led by David Neeleman, founder of several airlines including Morris Air (later acquired by Southwest Airlines), WestJet, JetBlue and Brazil’s Azul Airlines.

No application for certification had been filed with the US Department of Transportation as of last week.

The plan was first reported by Airfinance Journal June 11.

Summary
  • Business plan says an “order” has been placed for 60 CS300s but also says “delivery positions” were procured.
  • Delivery positions may be those of Republic Airways Holdings.
  • Initial funding of $100m raised.
  • Secondary cities, point-to-point business model.
  • Likely boost for C Series plant in Mobile (AL)—but a suggestion that this fills the line for two years is off base.

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Pontifications: Why Embraer downplayed range of EJet

By Scott Hamilton

June 18, 2018, © Leeham News: Bjorn Fehrm on Thursday wrote (behind the paywall) that Embraer seems to be selling the E190-E2 short when it comes to range.

Embraer’s published range is 2,850nm. But Bjorn discovered that the range is truly 3,250nm, fully 14% more than the advertised range.

I laughed out loud when Bjorn told me of this discrepancy.

Why would Embraer short-change the E190-E2’s range?

The answer was obvious to me.

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