Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing still hopes for 737-7 certification this year, 737-10 next year and an Amended Type Certificate for the 777X June 5, 2023
- Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 15. Airframe for lower Induced drag June 2, 2023
- Boeing’s Calhoun: Be patient for a new airplane June 1, 2023
- Embraer gears for growth June 1, 2023
- Boeing SC construction underway for second 787 final assembly line May 31, 2023
HOTR: Some changes coming to LNA in January
Dec. 27, 2022, © Leeham News: There will be some changes coming to Leeham News on Jan. 1, 2023.
The first is that for the first time since 2017, we adjust our subscription rates. We’ve been including notices in our articles throughout December. We provided notice on our Subscription page on Dec. 1. Here are the new rates:
Subscription Rate Adjustment
Effective Jan. 1, 2023, the following subscription rates will be in effect (US dollars):
-
- Monthly Rate: $59.95. This is for individuals and not corporate employees.
- Annual Individual Rate: $652. This is for individuals and not corporate employees.
- Annual Single User Corporate Rate: $1,632. This is for an individual corporate user.
Enterprise corporate subscriptions begin with Enterprise 3 (three users) and are available for up to 500 users. Please contact us at info@leeham.net for more information.
This is the first rate adjustment since 2017.
Accordingly, we’ll make some adjustments to our content.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year
By Scott Hamilton
Growing up in the Chicago suburbs, my family would occasionally trek down to the Chicago Museum of Science and Industry at Christmas time. The main attraction then was not all the very cool stuff in the Museum, including the German submarine U-505, a full-size replica of a coal mine, and locomotives.
At this time of year, it was to see the Christmas Around The World display–a tradition that is now 80 years old. Even as a child, it was amazing to see how different cultures celebrated Christmas. Here’s a taste.
LNA has some prepared posts between Christmas and New Year. Otherwise, we are taking the holidays off and return Jan. 2, 2023–unless there is compelling breaking news.
So with disdain for political correctness, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
Leeham News in addition to Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin, may now be found on Post.news here and on Mastodon here.
Aviation veteran journalist Creedy joins LNA
Kathryn Creedy
July 29, 2020, © Leeham News: Kathryn B. Creedy has joined Leeham News & Analysis as a regular contributor, it was announced today.
Creedy is an award-winning veteran aviation/travel journalist and author who has covered every facet of commercial and business aviation.
Holiday publishing schedule
Dec. 23, 2019: Except for 2019’s Top 10 Stories, LNA is going to try and take off publishing from Christmas Eve through New Year’s Day.
The Enchanted light maze at T-Mobile Park (Seattle Mariners) Field. Seattle Times photo.
However, if there is breaking news, we’ll report it.
Boeing hiring for key mechanic roles even as production cuts rumored
By BRYAN CORLISS
Dec. 16, 2019, © Leeham News — Even as Boeing’s board of directors met this weekend to discuss a potential 737 MAX production reduction or freeze, the company has continued to hire workers it will need desperately once it finally gets the go-ahead to resume deliveries of the grounded jet.
So far this month, Boeing hired more than 250 new mechanics at its Puget Sound plants. Insiders also tell LNA managers are talking to their recent retirees–among others- about coming back to work.
This is extremely unusual for Boeing. Historically, hiring at the company all but dries up after Thanksgiving, largely because of a provision in its contract with its union touch-labor workers that makes December a lucrative month to be a Machinist–but an expensive month for Boeing.
Two factors could be driving the hiring: a need to quickly install mandated updates on nearly 800 grounded MAXes once the grounding is lifted, and a long-term global shortage of exactly the kinds of workers who have the necessary skills to do those jobs.
- No end in sight for MAX grounding;
- December hiring unusual at Boeing;
- Boeing may need to lock down certain mechanics now;
- Last 777X bonus.
Airbus faces challenges for A330neo
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Aug. 26, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus faces near-term challenges with its production skyline for the A330, even at a reduce rate of 4/mo, an analysis shows.
Looking forward from next year, when there are slightly more deliveries scheduled than production rates—a function of some leftover 
2019 builds—Airbus faces an easily-filled gap in 2021 but huge production gaps beginning in 2022.
Even if Letters of Intent and options were fully converted to firm orders, big production gaps will exist.
A production rate cut seems inevitable in the near future.
Summary
- Key Emirates order not yet firmed up.
- Big, 200 unit A330-200R LOI no longer appears in data.
- Why keep the A330neo in the product line?
Digital transformation critical to Boeing
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Introduction
March 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Digital transformation is critical to Boeing’s evolving business model. But suppliers are in no rush to hand over their data to Boeing.
For more than a year, the airplane maker has been moving toward a new system for managing inventory and parts. As LNA noted last year, Boeing 
Commercial Airplanes’ management expects the new system, known as SAP, will streamline parts delivery and cut costs for Boeing and suppliers. BCA has been pushing suppliers for more transparency of their own supply chains and production flows. It likely would not surprise many industry watchers if BCA moves to integrate its suppliers into SAP in some fashion down the road.
Managers and executives at several suppliers told LNA that they expect Boeing to push for greater access to their companies’ internal data in coming years. They expressed ambivalence between potential efficiency gains and loss of autonomy.
Airbus appears poised to launch A321XLR
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Introduction
Feb. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: The longer Boeing dithers on launching the New Midmarket Airplane, the harder it is to close an already difficult 
business case.
News last week that Airbus finally, at long last, is appears about to launch its Xtra Long Range A321XLR this year is overdue. Doing so will make Boeing’s NMA business case more difficult to close.
The aircraft should have been launch in late 2017, an insider told LNA recently. But the corruption scandals enveloping Airbus disrupted plans and drove executives to indecision. Launching the A321XLR was put on hold.
Summary
- Killing the NMA.
- A321XLR details.
- Narrow market.
- Engine down select soon.
A380 end opens opportunity for A350-2000
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Introduction
Feb. 18, 2019 © Leeham News: Airbus’ decision to end the A380 program clears the path, if chosen, for a plane that was studied three or four years ago: the stretch of the A350-1000 to the size of the 777-9.
Will the termination of the A380 open the way to stretch the A350-1000? Source: Airbus.
A 400+ passenger “A350-2000” would have encroached too closely on the A380’s 500+ passengers. Officials feared the A350-2000 would hurt the sales prospects of the A380.
With the A380’s last delivery now planned for 20xx, this becomes a moot point.
The prospect of a new, Rolls-Royce Ultra Fan engine for the A350 around 2025 will give the -2000 significantly superior economics to the 777-9 and a longer range, a preliminary analysis by LNA shows.
Summary
- An A350-2000 with RR Ultra Fan engines is superior to the 777-9.
- However, Boeing has a big head start with orders for 340 777Xs, most of which are for the -9.
- The market demand for a 400-450 seat airplane is increasingly iffy.
- But the A350-900/1000neo helps business case.
Read more
Rolls-Royces sees NMA “addressable” market as 4,000-5,000, same as Boeing
Jan. 22, 2019, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce sees an “addressable” market for the Middle of the Market Aircraft at between 4,000 and 5,000 over 20 years—the same size Boeing sees.
But at the Airfinance Journal annual conference today in Dublin, an executive declined to be specific about the details of this assessment.