Too many orders? Yes, says consultant. No, says ex-super-salesman

Jan. 28, 2019, © Leeham News: There are too many airliner orders for the future demand, says a leading aviation consultant.

John Leahy. Airbus photo.

No, there aren’t, says the leading industry salesman, now retired.

These opposing views emerged at the Airfinance Journal Dublin conference last week.

Adam Pilarski, the consultant from the US firm Avitas, said a recession is on the horizon.

John Leahy, the former COO Customers from Airbus, said overbooking orders is a good thing.

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Pontificatons: From the sidelines at the AFJ Dublin conference

 

By Scott Hamilton

Jan. 28, 2019, © Leeham News: Launch by Boeing of the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA) is pretty much a given, despite a still undecided business case, say people on the sidelines of the Airfinance Journal’s Dublin 2019 conference.

Here is a potpourri of information picked up at the conference, which is attended by about 2,000 people.

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Rolls-Royces sees NMA “addressable” market as 4,000-5,000, same as Boeing

Jan. 22, 2019, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce sees an “addressable” market for the Middle of the Market Aircraft at between 4,000 and 5,000 over 20 years—the same size Boeing sees.

But at the Airfinance Journal annual conference today in Dublin, an executive declined to be specific about the details of this assessment.

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Rolls sees end of Trent 1000 issues, but a spike in 787 AOG possible

Jan. 22, 2019, © Leeham News, Dublin: Rolls-Royce faces an uptick in Boeing 787s that may become “aircraft on the ground” (AOG) as inspections of Trent 1000s spike in the coming months.

But Richard Goodhead, SVP Marketing, Rolls-Royce, says the worst is behind the company and the airlines—even though it will be a few years before engine part replacements are fully integrated into the global fleet.

There are more than 100 Boeing 787 Trent 1000 customers. About 20 have issues.

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Pontifications: The Airbus North America Tour

By Scott Hamilton

Jan. 21, 2019, © Leeham News: Last week’s Airbus North America Tour (#AirbusNATour on Twitter) was a whirlwind 2 ½ days encompassing Montreal Mirabel, Columbus (MS) and Mobile (AL).

To those who don’t follow Airbus Americas closely, the Mississippi stop might be a puzzle. I’ll come back to this to explain why an international group of media, including me, made this trek.

Let’s start with Montreal.

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PIPs planned for A220 to improve operating costs

Airbus A220-300, ordered by JetBlue last year. Source: Airbus.

Jan. 17, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus is planning performance improvement packages for the A220, intended to shave operating costs off an airplane that already beat performance promises.

The PIPs, as the upgrades are known, are common among all airliners. In this case, the PIPs were under study by Bombardier long before Airbus acquired a 50.01% stake in the C Series program last year.

While financially-strapped Bombardier may have been able to find the money to execute, giant Airbus has no problem doing so.

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Bjorn’s Corner: Pitch stability, Part 5

By Bjorn Fehrm

Jan. 11, 2019, ©. Leeham News: The week before Christmas we discussed the pitch stability of an airliner. We covered how a horizontal stabilizer made the aircraft stable in pitch, and why transonic airliners used a trimmable horizontal stabilizer rather than trimming with the elevator.

Now we look at some different flight situations with different trim needs before we move into the more troublesome parts of a pitch moment curve.

Figure 1. The pitch moment coefficient curve of an early DC-9 candidate. Source: Stanford University.

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Pontifications: “We will develop and actionable plan to develop supply chain”

By Scott Hamilton

Oct. 15, 2018, © Leeham News: “With your help, we will develop actionable plans to develop the supply chain.”

This was the leading message from the 5th Annual South Carolina Aerospace Conference and Expo, held Tuesday and Wednesday last week in Columbia (SC).

Conference officials also said they are “exploring a national aerospace coalition.”

SAVE THE DATE

Second Annual Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference

Organized by Leeham Co. and Airfinance Journal

April 14-16, 2019

Francis Marion Hotel

Charleston, SC

The South Carolina Council on Competitive/SC Aerospace already have a Letter of Intent with Washington State’s Aerospace Futures Alliance “for the purpose of advancing the aerospace industry across the US. The LOI will serve as the platform for exploring the creation of a national aerospace Coalition (Coalition) with the objective of strengthening and growing commercial aviation, space, and unmanned aerial systems in the US through a variety of activities.”

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Boeing,insurance firm stole trade secrets, launched ExIm Bank funding replacement, lawsuits charge

Sept. 11, 2018, © Leeham News: The Boeing Co., Boeing Capital Corp, Marsh & McLennan and its subsidiary, Marsh, a major insurance firm, have been sued for trade secret theft in lawsuits filed in Chicago and New York.

The dispute centers around the roles of Boeing, BCC and the insurers in creating Aviation Finance Insurance Consortium (AFIC). AFIC was created following years of the US Congress’ refusal to reauthorize the US ExIm Bank.

Thatcher Stone

Robert Morin

Kostya Zolotusky

Xavian Holdings and Xavian Insurance Co. allege in the lawsuits that The Boeing Co., through its Boeing Capital Corp unit, and Marsh signed trade secret and confidentiality agreements that precluded the companies from acting on the concept for an ExIm replacement financing guarantee vehicle.

“Boeing and BCC waited until their need for those trade secrets became critical – and then
misappropriated them,” the Boeing lawsuit charges.

Xavian was founded by several Wall Street professionals in aircraft finance and some bankers from ExIm, led by attorney Thatcher A. Stone. Stone now lectures on aviation law at the University of Virginia School of Law. Xavian was backed by venture financiers and had received a significant financing commitment from Lightyear Capital, led by Don Marron, former chairman of Paine Webber and UBS.

AFIC was launched in June 2017. In its first seven months, it provided financial guarantees for 16 Boeing aircraft to four airlines and a lessor. The aircraft had a value of $1.5bn in financing guarantees.

One person told LNC that Boeing’s profits from the sale could be around $800m. The lawsuits don’t specify a damage claim, which is normal in federal courts.

Despite the trade secret and confidentiality agreements, Xavian charges in the lawsuit that BCC’s Kostya Zolotusky, Tim Myers, now president of BCC but a VP at the time, and Robert Morin, then still employed by ExIm but a part of Xavier’s effort, were privy to then Xavian plans. Also privy was BCC officer Scott Scherer, now retired, the lawsuit says.

Morin now works for Marsh, the insurance manager for AFIC.

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Disagreements on NMA market footprint

Appraisers differ on market size but Boeing’s new aircraft type could launch as early as 2026.

Sept. 11, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal: No announcement was made at the Farnborough Air Show about the proposed New Midsize Airplane (NMA). With Airbus’ A321neo model selling well, the ball is in Boeing’s court.

The A321neo is Airbus’s weapon to challenge that market and the European manufacturer is trying to move fast into the middle of the market segment with more A321neo improvements in an effort to challenge further Boeing on its business case. The aircraft’s current maximum range is 4,000 nautical miles (nm), but Airbus is understood to be working on an improved version that would be capable of 4,500nm or more. This would enable airlines to operate the aircraft on transatlantic services to destinations further south on the US east coast and further east.

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