By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 28, 2019, © Leeham News: Launch by Boeing of the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA) is pretty much a given, despite a still undecided business case, say people on the sidelines of the Airfinance Journal’s Dublin 2019 conference.
Here is a potpourri of information picked up at the conference, which is attended by about 2,000 people.
New Midmarket Aircraft
- The true market demand is +/- 2,500, not 4,000-5,000 aircraft over the next 20 years, people almost universally agreed.
- CFM will almost certainly be the sole source engine supplier.
- Rolls-Royce offered the Ultra-Fan technology engine (aka Geared Turbo Fan) in its bid.
- One US airline official said Boeing must decide this year whether to launch the program. It, and others, won’t wait much longer.
- Airbus could have launched the A321XLR in November 2017. It didn’t because of indecision and distractions over the series of fraud, bribery and corruption investigations.
- The distractions at Airbus will continue. More firings are expected this year.
- The chaos from this will continue to disrupt Airbus sales this year and beyond. One prediction: It will be five years before Airbus finds its footing again.
- Boeing is ready to kick Airbus’ butt this year.
- And then there’s Brexit….
- Bombardier CEO Alain Bellemare may be coy about the “strategic options” being considered over the CRJ program, but everyone who mentioned it openly is talking about a sale of the program.
- Then they ask, Who would buy it?
- Other than NMA, the sideline talked revolved around the Embraer joint venture.
- Although Boeing says there is good synergy between the EJet and the 737-7, few see it.
- Many don’t understand the motive behind the JV and what Boeing gets out of it. (NB: They are not looking at the big picture.)