Boeing tells union: MAX production halt “weeks;” others see months

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By Scott Hamilton and Byran Corliss


Dec. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: The Boeing 737 MAX production shut down will be measured in “weeks,” Boeing told one of its unions.

But “weeks” is a highly  open-ended description.

One supplier estimated for LNA that the suspension will be at least 60-90 days.

An aerospace analyst sees the halt lasting 3-6 months at a minimum.

Boeing 737 MAXes stored at Boeing Field. Source: Seattle Times.

LNA’s analysis does not see production resuming before the Federal Aviation Administration notifies Boeing that it has a date certain for recertification. It has announced no timeline, although published reports already suggest this could be any time from mid-February to well into March.

But these are speculative dates. 

  • Boeing now says that once certification is achieved, delivering from the inventory is a priority over producing new airplanes.
  • This raises additional uncertainty over restarting production.
  • Spirit Aerosystems has some 90 fuselages in storage.
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Paris Air Show Day 3: Eyes focus on Boeing for more MAX commitments

June 18, 2019, © Leeham News: As the Paris Air Show prepares for Day 3 (June 19, Paris time), eyes will be on Boeing to see whether another commitment for the 737 MAX will be forthcoming.

Headlines the first day were split between Boeing’s early morning briefing in which executives apologized for the fatalities on the Lion Air and Ethiopian crashes, sympathies to their families and disruptions to the airlines for the groundings and the Airbus launch of the A321XLR.

Tuesday’s headlines belonged to Airbus until 4:30pm when International Airlines Group, the parent of British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus, Vueling and LEVEL, announced a commitment for 200 MAX 8s and MAX 10s.

If any such order was to come at the air show, observers expected it to be from Ryanair, whose CEO Michael O’Leary already had publicly endorsed the MAX and said he could order more.

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How useful is an Airbus A321XLR?

By Bjorn Fehrm

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June 6, 2019, © Leeham News: There are growing rumors Airbus will launch the extended range A321XLR at the Paris Air Show on June 17th. The aircraft will get more fuel and takeoff weight to enable an A321 to fly longer routes, penetrating deeper into the US and Europe for a trans-Atlantic use case.

Operators can now choose between longer routes than for the A321LR or the same routes while carrying more passengers. We use our performance model to find out the limits of this trade.


  • The A321XLR turns the trans-Atlantic capability of the A321LR from coast to coast opportunities into a mid-US to mid-Europe capability.
  • As the seat mile cost of the A321LR and A321XLR are competitive with the A330neo and Boeing 787, the A321XLR opens for thin and long service to several new city pairs.

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IAG’s low-cost airlines.

By Bjorn Fehrm

September 06, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We continue our series about the European legacy carriers’ LCC arms. Now we cover International Airlines Group or IAG.

The LCC approach of IAG has a more local focus than for Lufthansa Group. Europe’s leading LCCs are based in UK/Ireland. Yet IAG, with its main brands, British Airways and IBERIA, only has a Spain-centric LCC, Vueling, and since June a Spain-centric long-haul LCC brand, LEVEL.

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Boeing 737 MAX 10 analyzed

By Bjorn Fehrm

Note: Boeing’s “soft launch” of the 737-10 MAX at the ISTAT conference in San Diego a week ago met with some sharp criticism by lessors and some others. Within hours, Boeing scheduled a conference call for reporters the next day to defend and promote the airplaneLNC closely tracked the development of the MAX 10 and its competivitive position vis-a-vis the Airbus A321neo. Here is our first detailed, public analysis of the MAX 10.–Editor.

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March 12, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing has taken the wraps of the 737 MAX 10. Its overall configuration has long been known to LNC, but we now have more data and performance claims that we can analyze.

Boeing claims the MAX 10 flies farther, cheaper and with just about the same numbers of passengers as the class-leading Airbus A321neo.We now have enough data to analyze if this is true. We put the data in our performance model and here is the result.

  • Boeing’s claims on a basic level seem OK. The seating is close to the A321neo.
  • On a higher level it starts to stutter. Our model can’t agree on the 5% better economics.
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IAG is looking at leasing used A380s

By Bjorn Fehrm

18 January 2016, ©. Leeham Co in Dublin: Willie Walsh, the CEO of IAG (which is the holding of Brittish Airways, IBERIA, Vueling and Air Lingus) spoke at the Growth Frontiers 2016 conference in Dublin about how the new IAG has become more agile in following market changes to opportunistically increase its operational efficiency.

BA A380

Walsh gave the example of IAG’s aircraft fleets where he announced that it is looking to lease five to six used Airbus A380s in addition to the ones that British Airways (BA) already have on order. These could be aircraft for BA only use but also for a joint BA and IBERIA operation.

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Very un-British report on Ryanair-AerLingus

This amused us a lot–from the free British e-newsletter from Airline Fleet Management.

Talking Point
Pesky pursuer Ryanair claims Aer Lingus is a done deal

Ah, Ryanair. It’s like the Granny no one wants a sloppy kiss from, or the colleague no one wants to sit next to at the Christmas dinner. In fact, many of its hardened customers don’t really like it that much. Bottom of the friends list though is Aer Lingus.

To Aer Lingus, Ryanair is a sleazy old man with relentless ambition and bad intentions. Despite continuous rebuttals, it keeps trying to woo, or win Aer Lingus by force.

Ryanair now says it is “confident” that its €700m takeover bid for Aer Lingus will gain approval from the European Commission, despite the regulator recently sending the airline a list of objections based on rules governing competition.

The carrier said it has devised a number of remedies, including: “new airline bases in Dublin, new entrant competitors on over 40 routes to/from Dublin, Cork and Shannon, as well as specific competition solutions that guarantee increased price competition”.

It has until December 31 to finalise these plans before the watchdog makes its final decision.

Ryanair already owns 30 per cent of Aer Lingus and has had two failed attempts at a takeover. In 2007, the Commission turned down a bid for completion issues and in 2009, Ryanair dropped its second bid.

Poor Aer Lingus, when is it going to convince Ryanair that ‘no means no’?

Mary-Anne Baldwin, Editor, Airline Fleet Management