Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- An uneven financial recovery among OEMs and Suppliers March 27, 2023
- Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 5. Optimal fuselage March 24, 2023
- Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 5P. Optimal fuselage March 24, 2023
- A Chinese intervention in Ukraine would kill its aerospace industry March 23, 2023
- Pontifications: Complacency, arrogance aren’t a Boeing exclusive March 21, 2023
Repost: Exclusive Interview with Joe Sutter’s grandson as Last Boeing 747 leaves Everett factory
Update, Jan. 30, 2023: The last Boeing 747 will be delivered to Atlas Air tomorrow. Below is the story LNA posted on Dec. 6, 2022, when the airplane was ready to roll out of the Everett factory. In it, we exclusively interviewed the grandson of Joe Sutter, the lead engineer of the 747 design.
Cargo carrier Atlas Air is taking the final 747-8Fs, the last of a legendary line of Boeing jumbo jets./Atlas Air photo
By Bryan Corliss
Dec. 6, 2022, © Leeham News: The final Boeing 747, line No. 1,574, rolls out of Boeing’s Everett factory tonight. The plane was built for Atlas Air, which is scheduled to take delivery in early 2023 – almost 52 years after the first 747 entered service with Pan Am in January 1970.
“It’s kind of a sad occasion,” said Jon Sutter, the grandson of legendary Boeing aircraft designer Joe Sutter, the father of the 747.
Jon Sutter – who now works at Boeing in the same Boeing Field building where his grandfather designed the Queen of the Skies – hadn’t been born when the first 747 flew.
And his grandfather, who passed away in 2016, didn’t live to see the end of the program he’s most closely associated with.
However, even with the end of the 747 program, Joe Sutter’s legacy lives on, his grandson said.
“His baby, Boeing, is still going,” Jon Sutter said in a recent interview with LNA. “You can see his influence in every other plane out there.”
SUMMARY:
- First-flight pilots called it a “two-finger” airplane
- 747 was Plan B after SST was canceled
- Last 747s sport special decal honoring Sutter
- 747 survived the Boeing Bust
- 747-8 was final iteration
- ‘Hard to imagine the world without it’
Read more
New air cargo operators to drive freighter demand, Boeing says
By Bryan Corliss
Nov. 9, 2022, © Leeham News: The Boeing Co. projects the world’s air cargo fleet will grow by 80% in the next 20 years, as new operators rush to meet demand caused by a global boom in e-commerce.
This will translate into orders for nearly 2,800 new and converted freighters by 2041, said Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of commercial marketing.
Boeing 747-8F jets at Boeing Field, Seattle, during initial flight testing in 2011. Bryan Corliss photo.
As many as 40 new companies are getting into the air cargo market, ranging from start-ups to traditional shippers diversifying into the air cargo market, Hulst said.
“Cargo has been, relatively, the bright spot in aviation since the beginning of the pandemic,” he said during a briefing with reporters prior to today’s International Air Cargo Association forum in Miami..
SUMMARY
- Cargo market hanging on to most pandemic gains
- Demand strong for dedicated cargo jets
- Boeing doesn’t see need to replace 747-8F until ‘mid-century’
Read more
Dual or Single Aisle for Long Haul, Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 4, 2022, © Leeham News: We’ve been analyzing whether flying long-haul is better with a single-aisle or with a widebody under identical conditions.
To have equal conditions, we fly between Milano and New York at the practical range limit for our single aisle, Airbus A321XLR. We finished the analysis of Cash Operating Costs; now, we look at passenger and cargo yields and the generated margins on the trips.
Summary
- The margins with identical conditions point the same way as the Cash Costs.
- Any cargo traffic on the route will favor the widebody.
Boeing sees long-term demand bouncing back after pandemic
July 16, 2022, © Leeham News: After years of market turmoil, Boeing and Airbus see brighter skies–and bigger order backlogs–ahead. Both companies maintained confidence that demand for aircraft would bounce back as the COVID-19 pandemic ebbed. Passenger traffic and aircraft utilization seem to back up their optimism. Traffic is bouncing back despite short-term economic concerns, a pandemic that is still smoldering and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Boeing projects demand for 39,050 new commercial aircraft, excluding regional jets, over the next two decades, according to its Current Market Outlook, which it released Saturday. The company’s forecast is in line with Airbus’ forecast of demand for 39,500 aircraft. Single-aisle aircraft make up three-quarters of demand in both companies’ outlooks. Boeing is slightly more bullish on passenger widebody demand.
Sustainability is an increasingly important factor in Boeing’s market outlook. It is also a relatively new variable, and how much it will shape market demand and in what ways is not very clear.
Best business; Under-floor Cargo or Dedicated Freighter. Part 4.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
July 7, 2022, © Leeham News: What is the best business? To transport cargo below the floor in passenger airliners or dedicated freighter aircraft?
We dug deeper into the cost of flying air freight from Shanghai to Denver last week, forwarded as a below-floor pallet on a passenger jet or via a dedicated freighter.
The cost advantage changed from passenger jet to freighter when we looked deeper into the allocatable cost. Now we finish by analyzing why cargo airlines are consistently more profitable than passenger airlines.
Summary
- Freight airlines generate lower margins from operations than passenger airlines.
- Still, they are more profitable. We explain how.
Best business; Under-floor Cargo or Dedicated Freighter. Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 30, 2022, © Leeham News: What is the best business? To transport cargo below the floor in passenger airliners or dedicated freighter aircraft?
We analyzed the cost of flying air freight from Shanghai to Denver last week. It was forwarded as a below-floor pallet or on a dedicated freighter.
We found the allocatable fuel costs were lower when piggybacking on passenger aircraft, but it’s not the whole story. Now we go a level deeper.
Summary
- For fuel costs, the belly cargo alternative was the lower-cost alternative.
- This changed when we added other operational costs.
Best business; Under-floor Cargo or Dedicated Freighter. Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 23, 2022, © Leeham News: What is the best business: to transport cargo below the floor in passenger airliners or with dedicated freighter aircraft?
We could see in last week’s article that air freight companies have generally been more profitable over the last decade than passenger airlines. Why?
We continue the analysis by looking at the cost of flying cargo in passenger airliner bellies versus dedicated freighters.
Summary
- At today’s high fuel prices, transporting cargo in a passenger aircraft’s belly is cheaper than on freighters when we do a first-level analysis.
- Does this change when we go deeper?
Best business; Under-floor Cargo or Dedicated Freighter?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 16, 2022, © Leeham News: What is the best business; to transport cargo below the floor in passenger airliners or dedicated freighter aircraft?
The market clearly says both, as this is the state of affairs. Market economy says a business will find its optimal form, and it’s about fifty-fifty now. But what are the plus and minuses of these two very different ways of transporting cargo, and why do we have the present situation?
We search for answers by looking at the transport fundamentals and comparing costs with revenues.
Summary
- About half of the world’s cargo flies in the bellies of passenger aircraft, and the other half flies on dedicated freighters.
- What are the factors that have created this division, and will it change?
Impact of Russian Airspace Closure for mid-European freight airlines
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 12, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at what the closure of Russian airspace would mean for a mid-European airline that flies to Asia destinations like Japan, Korea, or Mainland China.
Air France now flies the routes from East Asia south of Russian airspace instead of over Siberia. The route is longer which increases the operating costs, but with the examples Boeing 777-300ER, there are no restrictions on passenger load factors, and most times, the cargo space can be loaded to the volume limit.
For a freight airline flying similar routes, the added distance impacts payload, as freighters have about 2,000nm less range than their passenger siblings. We check the operating cost and payload impact for mid-European freighter airlines flying from Far-East freighter hubs to West Europe.
Summary
- A freighter airline takes a heavier hit from Russian airspace closure.
- As the extra distance eats into the possible payload, the operating cost per tonne for hubs like Shanghai, Seoul, and Taipei increases more than for the airline’s passenger service.
An A330neo freighter, should it happen?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
April 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we started a discussion on what should be Airbus’ response to a 787 freighter. We have seen in a series of articles that the 787 freighter would beat the present A330 freighter, and the question is, will Airbus leave this segment to Boeing, or will it respond?
We look at what’s involved for Airbus to upgrade the present A330-200F to a neo freighter and what performance it would have compared to a 787 freighter.
Summary
- An upgrade of Airbus’ present A330-200F freighter to a neo variant based on the longer, more capable A330-900 would be a modest project for Airbus. All the special bits needed were developed for the A330-200F.
- The resulting A330-900F would be a competitive freighter, and as all needed parts are in serial production today, it could hit the market before a Boeing 787 freighter.
