Mitsubishi SpaceJet retreat is the best news for Embraer in months

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By Scott Hamilton

Analysis

May 25, 2020, © Leeham News: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) surprising retreat from its SpaceJet regional airliner program is the best news in months for beleaguered Embraer.

This takes pressure off the Brazilian manufacturer and gives it time to regroup after Boeing jilted it at the alter by walking away from a proposed joint venture.

Going into storage: four Mitsubishi MRJ90s at Moses Lake (WA). Photo: Mitsubishi.

MHI’s actions leave Embraer with a monopoly in the 76-100 seat arena vs new airplanes. The M90 SpaceJet is not a viable competitor to the E175-E1 or the struggling E175-E2. Embraer’s competition will be its own used jets, plus used Bombardier CRJ-700/900s.

Summary

  • Closing US operations entirely. Closing the recently opened engineering center in Montreal
  • Continued operation of the CRJ product support center in Montreal or relocation to Nagoya uncertain.
  • Major cost-cutting drive.
  • MHI wants to certify M90, then consider whether to proceed with M100.
  • M100 has MOUs for 495 aircraft.
  • MRJ90 was not certifiable due to design deficiencies.
  • Redesigned M90 meets certification requirements.
  • M90 is economically uncompetitive with E-Jet.
  • COVID-19 upends entire airline industry, casting doubt in MHI’s commitment to SpaceJet future.

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The Squeeze on Embraer

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By Scott Hamilton

Introduction

April 27, 2020, © Leeham News: The collapse of the Boeing-Embraer joint venture Saturday resurfaces the squeeze Embraer was under when the deal was announced in 2018.

Then, Embraer faced the prospect of competing against Airbus in the 100-150 seat sector with the former Bombardier C Series.

Embraer’s E2 Jets are squeezed from above by the Airbus A220 and, if Mitsubishi performs, the M100 SpaceJet from the bottom.

John Slattery, the CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation (ECA), said he could not compete against the marketing might of Airbus alone. In fact, he lost a key customer when jetBlue ordered the A220-300 instead of the E195-E2 to replace 60 E190-E1s. Airbus, which took over the C Series July 1, 2018, wrapped the A321neo into the A220 order. This deal was announced shortly after Airbus assumed majority ownership of the C Series program.

Summary
  • E195-E2 will drive demand.
  • The E190-E2 won’t be a “door opener.”
  • The E175-E2 future depends on US Scope Clause relief.
  • Coronavirus upends everything.
  • M100 waiting in the wings.

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Pontifications: Taking a knife to a gunfight

April 27, 2020, © Leeham News: There is a great line in the movie, The Untouchables. Sean Connery’s character tells an assassin that he’s bringing a knife to a gunfight.

By Scott Hamilton

That’s what came to mind when Embraer says it will seek remedies against Boeing following the latter’s terminating the joint venture agreement between the two companies.

In the movie, the assassin lured Connery into a trap. Connery was gunned down by a machine gun. But don’t expect Boeing to be lured into any trap by Embraer.

Boeing doesn’t pull a move like this without thinking through all the possibilities. It may muff the thought process, as will be noted below, but it does think through alternatives.

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Pontifications: Assessing the impact of COVID-19: today’s take

By Scott Hamilton

April 6, 2020, © Leeham News: It’s going to be quite a while before there is a clear understanding how coronavirus will change commercial aviation.

LNA already touched on impacts to Airbus, Boeing and Embraer. None of it is good. For Boeing, burdened with the additional stress of the 737 MAX, is in the worst position. Even when the MAX is recertified, there won’t be many—or any—customers in a position to take delivery of the airplane.

Bearing in mind that what’s true today will change in a day, or even an hour, let’s take a rundown of where things seem to stand now.

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Pontifications: There was other news in 2019 besides MAX. Really.

By Scott Hamilton

Dec. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: The Boeing 737 MAX crisis clearly dominated the news this year.

It’s felt like the aviation stories have been all-MAX, all-the-time.

Believe it or not, there was aviation news other than the MAX.

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Embraer’s E195-E2 or Airbus A220-300 under 150 seats? Part 3

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction 

October 3, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We have the last two weeks analyzed what aircraft to choose for the segment 120 to 150 seats, comparing Embraer’s E195-E2 with Airbus’ A220-300.

The first week we looked at fundamental data and last week we compared the drag data and by it the fuel consumption of the aircraft. Now, we analyze the other operational costs for the aircraft.

Summary:

  • The fuel costs between the E195-E2 and A220-300 are close.
  • We now analyze the other operational costs; Crew, Maintenance and Airway/Airport costs to see how these differ.

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Embraer delivers first E195-E2, expects E175-E2 entry into service 2021.

By Bjorn Fehrm

Sept. 12, 2019, ©. Leeham News, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil: Embraer celebrated the first delivery of its to-date largest aircraft, the 132 seat E195-E2, to Brazil’s Azul Airlines at a press event at its Sao Jose dos Campos headquarters today.

At the conference, the Commercial Aircraft CEO, John Slattery. also stated the smallest member of the E2 family, the E175-E2, will fly before the end of the year and he expects it fly revenue flights for its first customer before end 2021.

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Embraer presents second quarter 2019 results.

By Bjorn Fehrm

August 14, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: Embraer announced its 2Q2019 results today. The company delivered a slightly better quarter than expectations after a disappointing first quarter.

The Commercial Aircraft division and its E175 is still paying the company bills, as the start of the E2 program with E190-E2 is slow, with deliveries at one per quarter so far this year.

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Pontifications: Melancholy about Embraer’s 50th year

By Scott Hamilton

June 10, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer is 50 years old Aug. 19.

This must be the classic case of mixed feelings. By the end of the year, if regulators approve, the marquis business unit, Commercial Aviation, will be spun off and the Embraer name for it disappears into Boeing Brasil-Commercial (BB-C).

Boeing will own 80% of the new joint venture and Embraer retains 20%. Boeing has the governance and chairman. Embraer’s CEO of Commercial Aviation becomes president and CEO of BB-C, but the direction now will clearly be set by Boeing.

Sixty percent of Embraer’s services unit goes into BB-C.

Embraer and Boeing also created a second JV, for the KC-390 program. Embraer retains 51% and Boeing gets 49%.

Embraer retains full control over the remaining defense and business jet units.

Officials put a “best face” on the pending changes at Embraer’s pre-Paris Air Show briefings May 27-29, but they really could not mask the uncertainties and, to some degree, resignation about the future.

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Mitsubishi in negotiations with Bombardier to acquire the CRJ program (Updated)

By Bjorn Fehrm

June 5, 2019, © Leeham News.: The Air Current broke the news earlier today Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) is negotiating with Bombardier to buy the CRJ program.

BBC has got comments from both companies confirming the discussions, with cautions nothing is settled and it can still result in a no deal. Should it happen it would make a lot of sense for both parties.

UPDATE: Bombardier has issued a statement confirming the discussions, see below.

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