By Bjorn Fehrm
August 14, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: Embraer announced its 2Q2019 results today. The company delivered a slightly better quarter than expectations after a disappointing first quarter.
The Commercial Aircraft division and its E175 is still paying the company bills, as the start of the E2 program with E190-E2 is slow, with deliveries at one per quarter so far this year.
Embraer’s revenue for the first six months was €2.20bn (€2.25bn 1H2018) with profit at €11m (€9m). It delivered 37 (41) commercial jets and 36 (31) executive jets. Free Cash Flow was -€0.66bn (-€0.38). Cash and financial investments are at $2.5bn ($3.4bn). Backlog is $16.9bn ($17.4bn).
Commercial Aircraft (41% of revenue, Figure 1) had a Book to Bill of 1 for the quarter, with a good order intake during the Paris Air Show. Orders and deliveries for the Executive jet sector are picking up after a bad 2018.
Guidance for 2019 was reiterated at 85 to 95 Commercial aircraft and 90 to 110 Executive jets.
Embraer is still dependent on deliveries of the E175, mainly to the US Scope Clause market, Figure 2.
The E2 program has only delivered six E190-E2s after one year of deliveries, with the last half-year delivery rate of one aircraft per quarter. It’s not clear what is keeping the deliveries at this slow rate.
The Phenom 300 light jet is selling well with 21 deliveries out of a total of 36 for 1H2019 (31). The margin richer mid-range Legacy/Praetor family is delivering at a fraction of its main competitor, Bombardier Challenger 350/650, at nine compared with 31 aircraft. The longer-range Praetor replacement for the Legacy 450 and 500 shall improve this ratio.
The focus is here the KC-390 tactical transport. The first aircraft for delivery to the Brazilian Air Force is flying since May with delivery 2H2019. The KC-390 has also got its first export order from Portugal for five KC-390, just after the close of the quarter, on July 11th.
All support and services are bundled in this division with revenues of $0.5bn. It’s the margin riches business at Embraer. A large portion of this revenue and margin will be going to Boeing Brasil once the Joint Venture gets regulatory approval.
How much larger and more range capable could the E-195 be? I wonder if the hull would be sufficient to sit just below the NMA and still support the market that the 73 series has done to date, while the larger end (Max 9 and 10) be taken up the NMA. I expect the NMA would have larger windows and cabin pressure more suitable to 8 hour+ flights transatlantic, along with suitable seating.
I could see the A220 (100 /500) replacing the A318 – A320 and Airbus building a similar NMA to replace the A321 – up to A330 considering these air-frames are now expected to tend to 8 hour+ flights transatlantic.
I don’t think the the E2-195 will get longer. The E2-195 is already 9 feet longer than a A220-300 but seats 15 fewer passengers in a single class 28″ seat pitch configuration. It would need to add another 9′ just to match the A220-300 in seats. Conversely a A220-500 will be about as long as an E2-195 but seat about 180.
This is Boeing’s problem. It needs both a NSA and a NMM to match what AirBus can do with the A220 200/300/500, the A32x and the A330.
I also don’t think AirBus will do a NSA. Instead they will next neo/neo the A32x which will include a new wing and engine. They will do this while trying to keep the line running at the current rate. Boeing will have a hard time ramping a NSA without “Osborning” the 737.
I nave not been following their orders – do they have the orders and just mot making enough to meet the orders date commitments?
They have to be looking at getting the 175E2 under scope.
TW: See: https://leehamnews.com/2019/07/22/pontifications-embraer-counts-on-boeing-heft-for-ejet-e2-sales-boost/
Got it. Any know reason so slow, clearly they need to ramp up with that many.
Getting E2 under scope ?
Not going to work, they cant do the stuff Mitsi did to increase passenger space with their baggage hold on the main deck. But they were under scope weight to start with just needed more space for 3 class cabin.
I suppose Embraer can try making the old short fuselage E170 into an E2 version its 1.78m shorter and 4000lb lighter with less range, but thats more of a 66 seater in 2 classes.
Republic in US runs 59 of that version for the mainline carriers
I knew the larger E2 series had a new wing aerofoil but it seems the changes go beyond that.
“Built on the first generation E-Jet, its wing is redesigned, and it introduces new pylons, landing gear, horizontal stabilizers, cabin, cabin air system, air cycle machine, bleed air system, and a new fly-by-wire system.[32] The switch to a composite wing was not yet justified economically for a similar shape, the less draggy flaps are single-slotted instead of the more complex double-slotted on the E1, and the engine pylon is shorter.[22] The raised, 11:1 aspect ratio gull-wing partially accommodate the 2.01m (79 in) diameter GTF, larger than the CF34 by 66 cm (26 in), while the trailing arm landing gear is taller for 23–25 cm (9.1–9.8 in) higher door sills, giving a 5 cm (2.0 in) lower nacelles than the E1”- Wikipedia.
They seemed to have been short of space under the wing for the larger diameter engine like the Max, but used a different technique: shortening the pylon, raising the wing -fuselage connection – gull wing- and increasing undercarriage height.
Southwest needs to start replacing its 500 3 cabin attendent 737-700s. They ordered / deferred a few -7, before the crashes. A 149 seat, Mobile build A220-300 with Geared Fans weighs 5t less.
Some 737-700 will be replaced by bigger -8s.
Non the less, Boeing Brasil better comes up with a real smart E195-E2 proposal or strange things could happen.
https://interestingengineering.com/boeing-and-southwest-airlines-this-might-be-the-end-of-one-of-the-most-famous-exclusive-partnerships-in-history