Leeham News and Comment
Intelligence for the Aviation Industry
Leeham News and Comment
- Automation reduces foreign advantages over US November 19, 2018
- Pontifications: A fresh look at the world’s worst aviation accident November 19, 2018
- Bjorn’s Corner: Supersonic transport revival, Part 15. Wrap-up. November 16, 2018
- How useful is an NMA, Part 6 November 15, 2018
- Boeing’s automatic trim for the 737 MAX was not disclosed to the Pilots November 14, 2018
Huge surge of A320 orders greatly exceed near-, mid-term A320 retirements
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Introduction
Oct. 4, 2018, © Leeham News: The huge surge of orders for the Airbus A320 family far outstrips the aging aircraft statistics, an analysis shows.
Airbus has a backlog of more than 6,000 A320 family members, with more than 1,700 sales potential just for retirements.
There is a backlog of more than 6,000 A320neo family members, with the near- and mid-term delivery schedule far exceeding A320 retirements. Photo credit: Airbus.
There are more than 4,300 A320s scheduled for delivery from 2019 through 2025.
There are just 765 A320s that hit 25 years old during the same period.
The surge in A320-family aging aircraft begins in 2030, just as the bulk of the current backlog ends, according to data bases maintained by Ascend and Airfinance Journal’s Fleet Tracker.
Summary
- Useful lives of A320s in passenger service historically have been 25 years. Till now, no P2F programs existed to extend the useful lives.
- But, some passenger airlines are returning A320s off lease in 12 years or less—accounting for some of the surge in orders vs aging aircraft.
- Supply-demand imbalance in the secondary markets could emerge.
Farnborough: Boeing reconsiders metal fuselage for NMA as cost remains major challenge
July 16, 2018, © Leeham News: Farnborough: Boeing has returned to considering a metal fuselage for the New Midmarket Aircraft as an alternative to the ovoid-based composite design that has been the focus for the past two-three years, multiple sources tell LNC.
Boeing hasn’t been able to narrow the cost of the composite design to a point where selling the aircraft in the $70m-range is feasible, sources say.
Future Mobile A220 final assembly line already pushing capacity
July 11, 2018, © Leeham News: The order for 60 Airbus A220-300s, when added to the order for 75 A220-100s by Delta Air Lines and the anticipated order for 60 A220-300s by USA start-up carrier Moxy Airlines, nearly fills out the new Mobile (AL) production line through 2024, an LNC analysis reveals.
Construction of the A220 Final Assembly Line (FAL) begins this year. The first delivery is planned for mid-2020.
JetBlue and Moxy show first deliveries in 2020, according to company documents. Delta’s deliveries begin this year from the Airbus Canada Montreal facility, but will shift to the Mobile plant.
JetBlue orders 60 A220-300s in surprise timing
July 10, 2018, (c) Leeham News: JetBlue announced an order today for 60 Airbus A220-300s, nee Bombardier CS300s. The airline took options on 60 more.
The timing is a surprise–JetBlue previously said it would not be ready to order until toward the end of the year.
The order is a blow to Embraer, which has 60 E-190s in service with JBLU. The airline had orders for 20 more, but delivery had been deferred several times. Industry insiders told LNC the order could be canceled with little or no penalty.
The order is a blow to Embraer for the flip and for the loss of a potential E2 order. The E195-E2 seats slightly fewer passengers and has less range than the A220-300.
JetBlue has a large fleet of Airbus A320ceos, a few A321ceos and a large order book for neos.
Boeing, Embraer tie-up key to NMA development
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Introduction
July 9, 2018, © Leeham News: When Boeing and Embraer announced last week the Memorandum of Understanding to form a joint venture between Boeing and 
Embraer Commercial Airplanes, writers and analysts jumped on the bandwagon that LNC pointed out as far back as last year.
Summary
This is:
- A strategic play;
- About Embraer’s engineers and low-cost production in Brazil;
- About tapping Embraer’s resources for development of the potential Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft; and
- About EMB’s potential lead in developing a new single-aisle aircraft to replace the 737, among other things.
Additionally, a Boeing partisan sees new trade complaint against C Series.
Related stories:
Pontifications: C Series to Airbus, 10 years since program launch, lower fuel burn
By Scott Hamilton
July 2, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus officially became the majority partner yesterday of the C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership, or CSALP.
Airbus has a 50.01% stake in the LP, with Bombardier and the province of Quebec holding minority stakes.
Things will move quickly, now that Airbus has control.
Airbus is expected to announce a rebranding of the C Series at its July 10 pre-Farnborough Air Show media briefing. An aircraft is in the process of being repainted in Airbus colors for display at the event.
Bloomberg reported in April new names were to be assigned to the CS100 and CS300, probably the A210 and A230 respectively.
Construction of the new C Series Final Assembly Line in Mobile (AL) will begin sooner than expected. This was announced at the Inaugural Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference in Mobile, organized by Leeham Co. and Airfinance Journal.
Pontifications: Growing aerospace in the US Southeast
By Scott Hamilton
June 24, 2018, © Leeham News: We’re a week away from the partnership between Airbus and the Bombardier C Series program becoming effective.
Beginning tomorrow, Leeham Co. and Airfinance Journal hold the Inaugural Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference in Mobile (AL), where Bombardier will be a C Series Final Assembly Line.
The US Southeast will also be a competitor for the site selection of the FAL for the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA) should Boeing decide, probably next year, to proceed with this new airplane.
US start-up has a lot of Moxy
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Introduction
June 21, 2018, © Leeham News: A new US airline secured delivery positions for 60 Bombardier CS300s for deliveries from 2020, according to its business plan circulating this month.
Moxy Airlines is led by David Neeleman, founder of several airlines including Morris Air (later acquired by Southwest Airlines), WestJet, JetBlue and Brazil’s Azul Airlines.
No application for certification had been filed with the US Department of Transportation as of last week.
The plan was first reported by Airfinance Journal June 11.
Summary
- Business plan says an “order” has been placed for 60 CS300s but also says “delivery positions” were procured.
- Delivery positions may be those of Republic Airways Holdings.
- Initial funding of $100m raised.
- Secondary cities, point-to-point business model.
- Likely boost for C Series plant in Mobile (AL)—but a suggestion that this fills the line for two years is off base.
Pontifications: Why Embraer downplayed range of EJet
By Scott Hamilton
June 18, 2018, © Leeham News: Bjorn Fehrm on Thursday wrote (behind the paywall) that Embraer seems to be selling the E190-E2 short when it comes to range.
Embraer’s published range is 2,850nm. But Bjorn discovered that the range is truly 3,250nm, fully 14% more than the advertised range.
I laughed out loud when Bjorn told me of this discrepancy.
Why would Embraer short-change the E190-E2’s range?
The answer was obvious to me.
Countdown to Airbus-CSeries deal: boost needed to backlog
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Introduction
May 28, 2018, © Leeham News: Bombardier and Airbus may clear regulatory approvals next month, allowing for consummation of the latter’s acquisition of 50.01% of the CSeries program.
If all works, this will be well in advance of the Farnborough Air Show that begins July 15. Industry eyes will be on the FAS to see what orders might be announced by
Airbus for the CSeries, which reportedly may be renamed the A210 and A230 for the CS100 and CS300 respectively.
As May fades to June, Bombardier has beefed up its skyline quality, but there are some orders that are in doubt, including a big one for 40 airplanes.
Summary
- No sales since Dubai Air Show.
- Airbus-CSeries deal expected to close next month.
- Three questionable orders affect nearly 20% of backlog.
- Farnborough Air Show will be keen to watch for news.