Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Look at entire portfolio when investing in sub-types, Airbus and Boeing say January 23, 2019
- Rolls-Royces sees NMA “addressable” market as 4,000-5,000, same as Boeing January 22, 2019
- Rolls sees end of Trent 1000 issues, but a spike in 787 AOG possible January 22, 2019
- Additive manufacturing explained January 22, 2019
- Leeham News and Comment is now Leeham News and Analysis January 21, 2019
Bombardier CEO “proud” at A220 FAL groundbreaking
Jan. 16, 2019, © Leeham News, Mobile (AL): Groundbreaking for the Airbus A220 final assembly line today might be viewed as a bittersweet moment for Alain Bellemare, CEO on Bombardier, designer of the C Series.
Airbus Group CEO Tom Enders at the A220 FAL groundbreaking in Mobile (AL). It’s his last one with Airbus., He retires in April. (Scott Hamilton photo.)
The program nearly bankrupted Bombardier. A sale of 50.01% of the CSLAP limited partnership to Airbus was necessary to save the program and Bombardier.
Bombardier’s share in the program was reduced to about a third after the Airbus sale. (A quasi-government Quebec pension fund owns the rest.)
But in an interview following the groundbreaking, Bellemare was almost giddy with excitement.
Read more
KKR invests $1bn in small lessor
Jan. 3, 2019, © Leeham News: The US private equity fund KKR agreed to invest $1bn in boutique lessor Altavair, a deal that includes taking a 50% stake in the company.
KKR may supplement the investment with additional commitments, the companies said.
LNC’s Top 10 stories in 2018
Jan. 2, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing dominated the Top 10 news stories last year, as measured by views.
Displacing Airbus at Hawaiian Airlines, which ordered the 787-9 and canceled the A330-800, led the readership.
Boeing’s flip of the Hawaiian Airlines order for the A330-800 to the 787-9 was the most read story of 2018. Photo: Hawaiian Airlines.
Airbus’ launch of the A350-900ULR came in second.
Here are the Top 10 stories on Leeham News for 2018: Read more
2019 Outlook: Will Bombardier exit Commercial aircraft?
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Introduction
December 27, 2018, © Leeham News.: In July the CSeries changed from Bombardier to Airbus and in November the Q400 program was sold to Viking Air, the buyer of de Havilland Canada aircraft from Bombardier like the Twin Otter and the water bomber CL415.
When the Viking Air deal closes in the second half of 2019, only the CRJ regional jet will make up Bombardier Commercial Aircraft. Will the CRJ stay with Bombardier or go? And if so, why?
Summary:
- With other divisions increasing revenues amid healthy margins, the loss-making Commercial Aircraft’s time was up. It’s future hope, the CSeries, was digging an ever deeper cost hole with each delay. Only a market success could save it.
- The Boeing trade complaint in April 2017 made a success far-fetched, sealing the fate not only for the CSeries but for the Commercial Aircraft division.
- With the CSeries at Airbus and Q400 at Viking Air, why keep the CRJ? It makes no sense. The CRJ is presently dressed for sale. Now it’s more a question to whom and when.
Boeing deal, “crucial to Embraer survival,” in doubt
Update, Dec. 7: Embraer to appeal injunction.
According to the Google translation of a Brazilian newspaper, the injunction appears to be intended to halt any completion of the deal during the interim between the November presidential election and the assumption of office by the president-elect. The Google translation does not appear to indicate the injunction is based on any specific objection to the proposed JV.
ANALYSIS
Dec. 6, 2018, © Leeham News: In a stunning piece of news, a Brazilian court blocked the proposed joint venture between Boeing and Embraer.
If the action holds, this is a major blow to Boeing’s future plans.
The new joint venture, which LNC dubs NewCo for the lack of a name, was to be responsible for all future Boeing aircraft of 150 seats and below, according to a Memorandum of Understanding revealed by Embraer’s labor unions.
This is critical to Boeing’s long-term future for the 2030 decade. Read more
Delta orders more A330-900, pushes out A350-900
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
November 22, 2018, © Leeham News.: Delta and Airbus announced Friday; Delta will increase its A330-900 order from 25 to 35 aircraft and push out 10 ordered A350-900 five years, to 2025-2026.
Why this change for Delta? Can the 10 added A330-900 replace the planned A350-900? If so, will other airlines do the same?
Summary:
- Delta is a large operator of A330. With the new order, it will grow to 60 aircraft in the next five years. Through its Delta TechOps operation, it has achieved low operating costs for the A330.
- In its 251t version available from 2020, the A330-900 can cover most of Delta’s Asian destinations.
- The A350-900 is now a sub-fleet of 15 aircraft until 2025. It will be reserved for Delta’s longest Asian destinations and where higher capacity is needed.
Huge surge of A320 orders greatly exceed near-, mid-term A320 retirements
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Introduction
Oct. 4, 2018, © Leeham News: The huge surge of orders for the Airbus A320 family far outstrips the aging aircraft statistics, an analysis shows.
Airbus has a backlog of more than 6,000 A320 family members, with more than 1,700 sales potential just for retirements.
There is a backlog of more than 6,000 A320neo family members, with the near- and mid-term delivery schedule far exceeding A320 retirements. Photo credit: Airbus.
There are more than 4,300 A320s scheduled for delivery from 2019 through 2025.
There are just 765 A320s that hit 25 years old during the same period.
The surge in A320-family aging aircraft begins in 2030, just as the bulk of the current backlog ends, according to data bases maintained by Ascend and Airfinance Journal’s Fleet Tracker.
Summary
- Useful lives of A320s in passenger service historically have been 25 years. Till now, no P2F programs existed to extend the useful lives.
- But, some passenger airlines are returning A320s off lease in 12 years or less—accounting for some of the surge in orders vs aging aircraft.
- Supply-demand imbalance in the secondary markets could emerge.
Farnborough: Boeing reconsiders metal fuselage for NMA as cost remains major challenge
July 16, 2018, © Leeham News: Farnborough: Boeing has returned to considering a metal fuselage for the New Midmarket Aircraft as an alternative to the ovoid-based composite design that has been the focus for the past two-three years, multiple sources tell LNC.
Boeing hasn’t been able to narrow the cost of the composite design to a point where selling the aircraft in the $70m-range is feasible, sources say.
Future Mobile A220 final assembly line already pushing capacity
July 11, 2018, © Leeham News: The order for 60 Airbus A220-300s, when added to the order for 75 A220-100s by Delta Air Lines and the anticipated order for 60 A220-300s by USA start-up carrier Moxy Airlines, nearly fills out the new Mobile (AL) production line through 2024, an LNC analysis reveals.
Construction of the A220 Final Assembly Line (FAL) begins this year. The first delivery is planned for mid-2020.
JetBlue and Moxy show first deliveries in 2020, according to company documents. Delta’s deliveries begin this year from the Airbus Canada Montreal facility, but will shift to the Mobile plant.
JetBlue orders 60 A220-300s in surprise timing
July 10, 2018, (c) Leeham News: JetBlue announced an order today for 60 Airbus A220-300s, nee Bombardier CS300s. The airline took options on 60 more.
The timing is a surprise–JetBlue previously said it would not be ready to order until toward the end of the year.
The order is a blow to Embraer, which has 60 E-190s in service with JBLU. The airline had orders for 20 more, but delivery had been deferred several times. Industry insiders told LNC the order could be canceled with little or no penalty.
The order is a blow to Embraer for the flip and for the loss of a potential E2 order. The E195-E2 seats slightly fewer passengers and has less range than the A220-300.
JetBlue has a large fleet of Airbus A320ceos, a few A321ceos and a large order book for neos.