Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Airlines look toward another peak season without the MAX November 11, 2019
- Pontifications: Observing Veterans Day November 11, 2019
- Bjorn’s Corner: Analysing the Lion Air JT610 crash, Part 2. November 8, 2019
- Air France-KLM wants to simplify the fleet November 7, 2019
- Aviation Forum Munich: Boeing moves away from Partnership for Success November 6, 2019
IAG’s super MAX deal likely means super discounts, services
June 20, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing gets a Letter of Intent for 200 737 MAXes from International Airlines Group (British Airways, et al), announced Tuesday at the Paris Air Show.
Today, Airbus complained the deal came as a surprise—there hadn’t been a tender, Airbus had no chance to bid.
Christian Scherer, meet John Leahy.
Scherer is Leahy’s successor, and like Scherer, Leahy was blindsided in 1996 when American Airlines signed a 20-year exclusive procurement deal with Boeing.
Then, Delta and Continental airlines did the same.
Leahy complained bitterly that he didn’t know of American’s deal and had had no chance to bid.
Paris Air Show, Day 2: Orders and commitments
June 18, 2019, © Airfinance Journal: Boeing received a much-needed vote of confidence in its grounded 737 Max aircraft with a commitment for 200 of the type from IAG.
Nonetheless, the US manufacturer failed to register a firm order from the second day in a row.
Airbus, in contrast, continued to build momentum for its new A321XLR with orders and commitments from IAG and Cebu Pacific.
CFM also had a good day, registering big orders from lessors and AirAsia for its LEAP engine.
Embraer sees need for 10,550 airplanes in 50-150 sectors
May 29, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer, in what will be its last 20-year market forecast as an independent company, sees a demand for 10,550 jet and turboprop aircraft from 50 to 150 seats through 2038.
The company, founded 50 years ago, growing to become the world’s third largest supplier of airliners, sees its Commercial Aviation unit disappear by the end of this year, barring a hiccup of some kind.
That’s when The Boeing Co. and Embraer expect approval of a joint venture that will be called Boeing Brasil-Commercial (BB-C). Boeing will own 80% of the JV and control governance. Embraer will own 20%. The CEO of the Commercial Aviation unit, John Slattery, will be president of the joint venture, but Boeing will be in charge.
Until then, Embraer is trying to carry on business as usual. And this means it issued its 20-year forecast Monday during its pre-Paris Air Show international media briefing at its headquarters in Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil.
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E175-E2 prototype in production, first flight by year end
May 28, 2019, © Leeham News: The first E175-E2 prototype is now in production at the Embraer plant here at Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil, despite having no firm orders and only a single conditional order for 100 aircraft from a US airline that so far can’t use the airplane.
The pilot union contracts contain a clause that prevent the only customer for the aircraft in the world from using it because the take-off weight exceeds the 86,000 lbs specified in the contract.
Embraer designed the airplane with the hope the so-called Scope Clause would be relaxed in contract negotiations this year and next by pilots for American, Delta, United and Alaska airlines. It’s become clear that relief is unlikely.
Airlines must change tactics to attract maintenance workers
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Introduction
April 18, 2019, © Leeham News: Airlines need to create a pleasing work environment even in the industrial atmosphere of “wrench turners” if they are going to attract millennials to become maintenance workers.
Boeing forecasts a need of more than 600,000 mechanics over the next 20 years.
Some airlines, like Delta, faces an aging workforce, which will produce a surge of retirements.
JetBlue, with a young workforce, faces the challenge of attracting young workers who find better paying jobs in other industries.
Even KLM found it has to change the work environment to attract young employees.
Here’s how their stepping up to these challenges.
Training is a factor in the MAX crashes
By Scott Hamilton
April 15, 2019, © Leeham News: This column will no doubt light up the blog-o-sphere.
There’s been a major debate going on since the crash of Lion Air JT610, the Boeing 737-8 MAX that immediately became a huge controversy.
Boeing immediately blamed the pilots. So did some pilots of some US airlines, who said if the Lion Air crew had just flown the airplane, it wouldn’t have crashed. It was a training issue, some said.
Having got tremendous blow back over Lion Air, Boeing publicly held its tongue when Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302 crashed five months later.
Still, Boeing officials quietly still said there was nothing wrong with the airplane.
Some US and Canadian pilots maintained, publicly and privately, that a lack of training and pilot skills in the Third World was responsible.
They’re not entirely wrong.
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Airlines show dramatic reductions in cancelations, squawks
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Introduction
April 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Airlines are showing dramatic reductions in canceled 
flights and aircraft maintenance squawks through its Skywise live diagnostics programs, the most recent of which was rolled out in the US with ultra-low-cost carrier Allegiant Air in January.
Skywise Health Monitoring is the latest program in the Skywise suite of services offered by Airbus to carriers around the world. Skywise Health Monitoring (SHM) joins Skywise Reliability Services (SRS) and Skywise Predictive Maintenance (SPM).
Airbus announced Allegiant’s participation yesterday at the Aviation Week MRO Americas conference in Atlanta (GA).
Summary
- Allegiant cites examples pinpointing one problem misreported, identifying a looming part failure before it happened.
- Delta Air Lines dramatically reduced maintenance cancellations.
- $850,000 in savings in one example.
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Delta Tech Ops 5-year goal to double revenues
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Ed Bastian, Delta Air Lines CEO.
April 9, 2019, © Leeham News: Delta Air Lines has the third largest third-party MRO company in North America and aggressively seeks to grow, in sharp contrast to its competitors.
While American and United airlines have limited their own maintenance, repair and overhaul, let alone seek third party business, Delta Tech Ops is a business unit and profit center. Delta CEO Ed Bastian said today that Tech Ops will achieve $1bn in revenues this year and has a goal of $2bn within five years.
Bastian was the lead-off speaker at the Aviation Week MRO Americas conference in Atlanta this week.
Congestion costs billions, but airlines show little concern
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Introduction
March 21, 2019, © Leeham News: There are many estimates for how much flight delays and disruptions cost airlines and passengers. But everyone agrees the total number is big—possibly more than $1bn for each major US airline each year.
In 2017, delays cost airlines and passengers $26.6bn, according to the FAA/Nextor estimate. That total includes direct cost to airlines and travelers, lost demand and indirect costs. Congestion at the three major airports serving New York City directly cost air carriers an estimated $834m a year, according to a 2009 report.
Chicago O’Hare Airport at 7pm, Sunday, March 17, 2019. Source: FlightRadar24.
Yet despite the high cost, flight on-time statistics are basically where they were 20 years ago. Moreover, there are no discernible positive trends in the data collected by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
Of course, airlines take steps to decrease or limit flight delays, and, of course, some things, such as severe weather, are out of anyone’s control.
At the same time, airlines have shown little interest in pushing for low-cost solutions to decreasing system-wide congestion. There is no clear or easy explanations for carrier’s lack of motivation. However, interviews with current and former airline executives, researchers and others highlighted a few key factors.
Summary
- Reducing air traffic congestion is a huge, hairy beast of a problem.
- That complexity makes it difficult to see system-based approaches.
- Airlines are concerned that competitors could benefit more from reduced congestion.
A simple solution to congested skies
By Dan Catchpole
Danieljcatchpole[at]gmail[dot]com
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Introduction
Feb. 14, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Flight delays cost the airline industry
Traffic back ups are increasing–so much so that Airbus has invested in improving air traffic management to avoid congestion affecting aircraft sales.
billions of dollars each year. They cause travelers untold aggravation and inconvenience every day. And the main culprit—air traffic congestion—is only going to get worse as Boeing and Airbus deliver tens of thousands of jetliners over the next couple decades.
Regulators, lawmakers and the aviation industry in the United States have settled on spending billions of taxpayer dollars on NextGen—after having already spent billions—to implement complex technical solutions to keep the skies safe and cut down on flight delays.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) estimated in 2017 that implementing NextGen will cost roughly $35.7 billion by 2030–$20.6 billion from the FAA and another $15.1 billion from the aviation industry.
NextGen has moved with the swiftness of a sprawling, technocratic federal program—that is to say like an elephant at the ballet. It has endured delays and cost escalation, though these have not been crippling. However, it is years away from unclogging America’s congested air spaces.
Moreover, there are very real questions as to whether NextGen will be able to deliver all the FAA promises it can.
Summary
- Air spaces are getting more crowded, leading to greater flight delays.
- Airbus is concerned that congestion could hurt demand for jetliners, and is taking steps to improve air traffic flow.
- Substantial questions exist as to NextGen’s ability to unclog air traffic congestion.
- Taking a system-wide approach that taps into airlines’ desire to maximize profits could be implemented now, say proponents.