Embraer sees need for 10,550 airplanes in 50-150 sectors

May 29, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer, in what will be its last 20-year market forecast as an independent company, sees a demand for 10,550 jet and turboprop aircraft from 50 to 150 seats through 2038.

The company, founded 50 years ago, growing to become the world’s third largest supplier of airliners, sees its Commercial Aviation unit disappear by the end of this year, barring a hiccup of some kind.

That’s when The Boeing Co. and Embraer expect approval of a joint venture that will be called Boeing Brasil-Commercial (BB-C). Boeing will own 80% of the JV and control governance. Embraer will own 20%. The CEO of the Commercial Aviation unit, John Slattery, will be president of the joint venture, but Boeing will be in charge.

Until then, Embraer is trying to carry on business as usual. And this means it issued its 20-year forecast Monday during its pre-Paris Air Show international media briefing at its headquarters in Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil.

Replacement, growth

Forty-five percent of the demand will be for replacement and 55% for growth, said Rodrigo Souza, VP of marketing.

The 10,550 number is flat compared with last year. There were some inconsequential shifts within regions.

Asia-Pacific demand is now 2,990 airplanes, almost even with last year’s forecast of 3,000.

North America is now forecast to need 2,780 aircraft over 20 years, compared with the same a year ago.

Latin America is up by a mere 10 airplanes, to 1,150.

The complete forecast was not released at the media days; it is likely to be revealed at the air show.

US opportunities

Souza said the “big” opportunities will be in the US for small, narrowbody aircraft.
The Airbus A220 (formerly the Bombardier C Series) has been selected by Delta Air Lines, Jet Blue and start-up Moxy Airlines, which combined ordered more than 200 aircraft last year with nearly an equal number of options.

Embraer commands the 76-seat market with its E175-E1, but the E190/195 Series hasn’t made a dent. The larger two models don’t meet US pilot contract Scope Clause restrictions of weight and seats. The A220 is being flown by main line Delta pilots, and if Embraer—or BB-C—wants to sell the bigger airplanes in the US, these will have to be flown by mainline pilots.

The E175-E2 does not comply with Scope, either, due to exceeding the weight limit. But Embraer is going ahead with producing the prototype.

Greater capabilities

The E2s have more range, better economy and the 175-E2 and 195-E2 carry more passengers than their E1 predecessors.

Maintenance intervals are extended and the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engines are up to 20 dB quieter than the GE CF-34 engines on the E1s.

The first E190-E2 was delivered last year; only six have been delivered to date. The E195-E2 was recently certified and the first delivery will be in the third quarter to Brazil’s Azul Airlines.

Slattery, the CEO, expects sales to pick up now that the 195 has been certified. Sales of the E2 family have been slow, and the 175-E2 has no firm orders.

8 Comments on “Embraer sees need for 10,550 airplanes in 50-150 sectors

  1. I can see opportunities in the 50-75 RJ market and turboprops with 75-100 seats. ATR has the 50-75 turboprop market, future of this market most likely hybrid power sources.

    The 100-150 seat market could be dominated for a long time by the A220’s?

    • A220-200 isnt really as low as 100 seater- even in Delta configuration with 3 classes incl 12 in first its 109 seats.
      The other carrier Swiss has 125 seats in business and economy, which would be more typical.
      Compare to Air Baltics larger -300 model they seat 145 in 2 classes ( european business class seems to be same seat width as economy)

      Outside US for short haul routes, a generic 120 seater description would be more useful.

  2. Perhaps it has been discussed elsewhere, but I remain a little puzzled about the joint venture with Boeing.

    The takeover of the C-series by Airbus was fairly clear. Bombardier simply wasn’t able to continue on its own and anything to get rid of the liability was a good solution to allow Bombardier to prosper with its remaining business.

    For Boeing, a joint venture with Embraer was a logical counter to Airbus and the C-series, even if it is not a complete answer. But what was in it for Embraer ? Weren’t they able to continue with their apparently successful business ?

    Why would Brazil want to lose local control of such a jewel in their economy ?

    • Handwriting on the wall.

      Scope gong away and their new line was based on that, even the small one.

      Sell while the selling is good.

      • @TW

        You say scope is going away, could you elaborate please? Is it being drastically modified or being got rid of and when please?

        Cheers

  3. Apparently, there is no reason for Embraer to sell part of its operation.
    Here in Brazil, this joint venture shares the opinions of experts and the population. If he wanted to, the Brazilian government could have vetoed this agreement.
    The main reason for this agreement is to compete after the union between Bombardier and Airbus and form a duopoly.
    Whoever is in favor, argues that Embraer would lose competition in the future and that theoretically, the sale should expand Brazil’s exports. There is also Boeing’s interest in Brazilian engineers.

  4. The 50 seat regional jet is an interesting space. Look at the CRJ-550. Easy to dismiss this as a desperate move but:
    * 50 seats means only 1 flight attendant.
    * On board luggage rack means no “overhead anxiety” nor the need for gate checking of larger carry on. Both contributes t0 quicker boarding and turn-around.
    * The older generation engines have shorter warmup/cool-down times than the newer ones. That also contributes to quicker turn-around.
    * The extra length means lots of space for premium seating

    And there is room for innovation here. Imagine all this but with a single pilot cockpit and a flight attendant trained as a co-pilot for emergencies. That takes total crew to 2.

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