Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- HOTR: United likely can cancel A350 order with little penalty December 5, 2022
- Regulators need to understand realities, complexities of achieving ecoAviation goals December 5, 2022
- Pontifications: A lost decade for new airplanes December 5, 2022
- Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 48. eVTOL traffic management December 2, 2022
- Green aviation pressure applied to banks, oil companies, too December 1, 2022
Pontifications: Boeing gets boost from Farnborough; now, it must deliver
July 25, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing announced last week during the Farnborough Air Show orders and commitments for 278 737 MAXes, nine 787s, and two 777-8Fs.
By Scott Hamilton
Now, Boeing must deliver. Some of the 737 delivery positions in earlier orders were promised to begin in 2023. Some in the Farnborough orders are promised from 2025. These early delivery positions are one of the reasons (but not the only, to be sure) that Boeing has won some 1,000 MAX orders since the plane was recertified in November 2020.
But Boeing struggles to bump its MAX production rate. Officials hoped to hit a rate of 31/mo early this year. Boeing hasn’t confirmed a report that it hit rate 31 only this month. Confirmation may come during the Boeing 2Q2022 earnings call on Wednesday. Delays from the supply chain hurt Boeing’s ability to ramp up. With a projected production ramp up to 52/mo by 2025 (the pre-grounding level in March 2019), the question is whether the supply chain will be able to meet Boeing’s schedule.
Farnborough Air Show winds up with post-pandemic slow pace
By Scott Hamilton
July 22, 2022, © Leeham News: The Farnborough Air Show produced little in the way of headline news. But Boeing comes away with some momentum. Airbus announced a big order on July 1, well ahead of the show, from China, leaving show orders in high double digits.
Boeing announced orders and commitments for 278 737 MAXes, including 100 firm and 30 options from Delta Air Lines. This order was the first from Delta in 11 years, ending a long-running behind-the-scenes streak of sour relations between the companies.
The order, for the 737-10 MAX, finally fulfills Boeing’s goal of getting the -10 into Delta. Boeing had counted on Delta being a launch customer of the airplane in 2017. As reported in my book, Air Wars, The Global Combat Between Airbus and Boeing, the bake-off between the MAX 10 and the Airbus A321neo came down in favor of the MAX 10. But CFM declined to grant Delta TechOps rights to perform maintenance, repair and overhaul for other airlines and lessors. Pratt & Whitney agreed, tipping the order to Airbus.
Also during the competition, Boeing was engaged in a trade complaint over Bombardier’s sale of the C Series to Delta. Boeing alleged Bombardier engaged in price-dumping, contrary to trade laws. Boeing won the trade complaint and a tariff of 292% was assessed on each C Series imported from Canada. However, the final review found no harm to Boeing, which hadn’t competed for the order, a required element to impose the tariff. Many observers thought Boeing’s timing concurrent with the MAX-neo campaign affected the decision. But as reported in Air Wars, Delta officials said this wasn’t a factor.
Few orders at Farnborough Day 3
By Alex Derber
(c) Airfinance Journal, July 20, 2022
The Farnborough Air Show is all but over with a few orders announced on Day 3. Airbus executives have now left the show, with no more orders expected from them.
Basking in Farnborough rebound, Boeing faces contract rejection at Defense unit
By Scott Hamilton
July 20, 2022, © Leeham News: While Boeing is basking in an upbeat Farnborough Air Show with sizable orders for the 737 MAX, it faces the prospect of losing a key contract vote on July 24 with the International Association of Machinists Local 837.
Local 837 represents Boeing workers in St. Louis (MO), where the Defense unit is headquartered. Union leadership recommended rejecting the contract, opening the door to a potential strike. Nearly 2,500 union members are eligible to vote on the contract offer from Boeing. The current contract expires at 12:01 AM St. Louis time on July 25.
Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, ATR orders at Day Two of Farnborugh
By Alex Derber
(c) Airfinance Journal, July 19, 2022
Commercial aircraft
– Airline investor 777 Partners placed firm orders for 30 737 Max 8200 aircraft and agreed to a further 36 commitments for the high-density Max model. The aircraft have been earmarked for 777 Partners’ two airline investments: Flair Airlines in Canada and Bonza Airline in Australia.
– Porter Airlines exercised purchase rights and signed a firm order for 20 Embraer 195-E2 passenger aircraft, adding to its existing 30 orders. Porter’s first delivery is scheduled for the second half of 2022, when the Canadian carrier will become the North American launch customer for the E195-E2, while will be powered by Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan engines.
– Aercap ordered five additional 787-9s, taking its existing and on-order portfolio for the widebody family to 125 units.
– Aviation Capital Group ordered 12 additional 737 Max 8s, which have expanded the lessor’s Max order book to 34 aircraft.
– Delta Air Lines confirmed additional orders for 12 Airbus A220-300 aircraft. The US airline has now ordered 107 A220-family aircraft, the first of which it received in late 2018. The aircraft are powered by Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan engines.
Boeing monopolizes Day 1 at Farnborough Air Show
By Alex Derber
(c) Airfinance Journal
July 18, 2022: A sweltering first day at the 2022 Farnborough air show produced only a trickle of orders, with much of what was announced having been extensively trailed in recent weeks.
Commercial aircraft
– All Nippon Airways formalised a firm order for 20 Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft plus 10 options. The Japanese carrier was also revealed as the customer behind an order for two 777-8 Freighters, which was previously unidentified on Boeing’s website. ANA had converted an order for two 777-9 passenger aircraft to the -8 freighter.
– Delta Air Lines confirmed an order for 100 Boeing 737 Max 10 narrowbodies, signing also for 30 options for the largest member of the Max family.
Commercial engines
– Delta Air Lines ordered CFM International LEAP-1B engines to power the above order for 100 737 Max 10 aircraft. The engine order includes additional spare engines and an option to purchase up to 60 additional engines.
– Lufthansa Group ordered 14 General Electric GE9X and four GE90 engines to power its fleet Boeing 777 Freighter aircraft. The group recently announced the purchase of GE9X-powered 777-8 Freighters and GE90-powered 777 Freighters to upgrade its cargo fleet.
Future of 737-10 MAX clouded by Calhoun: What it means
By Scott Hamilton
CEO David Calhoun said Boeing might cancel the 737-10 MAX program if the FAA doesn’t certify it by year-end or Congress doesn’t grant an extension of a mandated deadline. Photo Credit: Leeham News.
July 17, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO David Calhoun cast doubt over the future of the 737-10 MAX in a July 7 interview with Aviation Week magazine.
With questions about whether the Federal Aviation Administration will certify the MAX 10 by year-end, doubts about the program’s future had been whispered in the market for weeks. A Congressional mandate adopted in the wake of the MAX crisis established the Dec. 31 deadline for the MAX 10. Boeing already has talked with customers about swapping MAX 10 orders for the 737-9 MAX, according to market sources.
The 737-7 MAX also remains uncertified even though flight tests have been completed.
Sustainability progress “depends on where you snap the line”
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By Scott Hamilton
July 11, 2022, © Leeham News: When it comes to sustainable aviation, what’s real and what’s greenwashing, “it depends on where you snap the line,” says a managing director at the consultancy Accenture.
John Schmidt heads up Accenture’s Aerospace and Defense Global Industry consultancy. Schmidt briefed LNA ahead of the Farnborough Air Show, which begins next week.
The background
John Schmidt
At the Annual General Meeting of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in Boston last October, IATA adopted a 2050 timeline goal for meeting targets to reduce aviation emissions. Tim Clark, the president and COO of Emirates Airline was on the panel with Stan Deal and Guillaume Faury, the CEOs of Boeing Commercial Airplanes and Airbus Group. The panel outlined goals for using Sustainable Aviation Fuel and reducing CO2 emissions, among other things. Clark, however, warned, “Don’t make promises you can’t keep.”
In a previous interview with LNA, Clark estimated the commercial aviation industry will need trillions of dollars to meet the 2050 goal. It’s money the industry doesn’t have. This begs the question: is there a certain amount of greenwashing going on?
De-carbonisation of air transport is ON
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 20, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week was a game-changing week for air transport. Three events synchronized to trigger it.
EU presented 13 policies to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 with concrete steps in-between. On the same day, the airframe and engine OEM’s CTOs said in a Farnborough Connect webcast: “It’s a commitment problem, not a technical problem to achieve the EU goals.”
This happened against a backdrop of European floodings, which made all discussions about climate change or not moot. Super-organized Germany lost over 100 persons to typhoon like rains, never seen before, that produced scenes like these: https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1416215953080205321?s=20
Figure 1. Farnborough Connect, from top-left: Moderator Johnson, Boeing’s Hussein, GE’s Lorence, Rolls-Royce’s Stein, SAFRAN’s Dalbier, Raytheon Technologies’ Russel, and Airbus’ Klauke.
2019 Outlook: leaving Airbus’ troubled year behind
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Only
Introduction
December 19, 2018, © Leeham News.: Next year is a time when Airbus hopes to leave its troubled 2018 behind.
But 2018 was also when the company wanted to leave the troubles of 2017 behind it.
Not only did 2018 not improve. In a number of ways it turned worse.
Engineless A320neos at Toulouse Airport. Airbus hopes this is a thing of the past. Photo via Google images.
Turmoil in the management ranks brought back memories of the politically infested Airbus of 20 years ago. And there were other issues.
Production problems with the A320 continued. The A330neo was further delayed and the A380 order from Emirates to save the program took forever to materialize. The negotiations to fix the contracts for A400M couldn’t be brought to a close.
There were two bright lights in the year. The A350 was now out of its cabin supplier problems and delivering aircraft to plan. The other was the gift from Boeing’s suing Bombardier and its CSeries the year before. The top modern Bombardier CS100/300 became Airbus A220 on the first of July. Price tag; $1 for 50.01% of the program.
Summary
- Changes in executives are almost over.
- Pratt & Whitney’s engine delivery delays are caught up and CFM’s delays are diminishing.
- Production ramp ups are peaking (for now) and deliveries should be at a record rate next year.
- Airbus is waiting for Boeing to decide whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft.