Leeham News and Comment
Intelligence for the Aviation Industry
Leeham News and Comment
- Automation reduces foreign advantages over US November 19, 2018
- Pontifications: A fresh look at the world’s worst aviation accident November 19, 2018
- Bjorn’s Corner: Supersonic transport revival, Part 15. Wrap-up. November 16, 2018
- How useful is an NMA, Part 6 November 15, 2018
- Boeing’s automatic trim for the 737 MAX was not disclosed to the Pilots November 14, 2018
A330neo backlog faces challenging skyline
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Introduction
Nov. 12, 2018, © Leeham News: With the first flight of the Airbus A330-800, it’s time to take a new look at the status of the A330 program.
Summary
- Additional orders have been recorded, but the skyline remains challenged.
- Iran Air’s order for 30 ceos and neos is still on the books.
- AirAsia X has yet to confirm Farnborough’s MOU for 34 A330-900s and reportedly looks for convert some to single-aisles.
- Lessors have a big chunk.
Pontifications: Musical chairs at Airbus
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 17, 2018, © Leeham News: The surprise resignation last week by Eric Schulz as Chief Commercial Officer for Airbus re-opened the door for the man who should have been named in the first place, Christian Scherer.
Scherer spent the last two years as CEO of ATR, which is 50% owned by Airbus, but his lineage is pure Airbus.
His father, Gunter, was one of the original Airbus pioneers. He was a flight engineer on the early A300B2 test flights when Airbus was formed. Gunter died in May.
Christian joined Airbus in 1984. Since then, he was Head of Contracts, Leasing Markets and Deputy Head of Sales as well as Head of Strategy and Future Programmes. At Airbus Defence and Space, he headed Marketing & Sales. He was named CEO of ATR in October 2016.
With a month to elections, Embraer bolsters backlog
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Introduction
Sept. 10, 2018, © Leeham News: With the Brazilian elections less than a month away, the outcome of the presidential race will determine whether the proposed joint venture between Embraer and Boeing will be approved.
Embraer is Brazil’s most visible and prestigious international company. The government has a “golden share,” giving it veto power over certain transactions, including the Boeing deal. Boeing will own 80% of the new JV that will be for EMB’s commercial business only. Embraer will own 20%.
The incumbent government says it will approve the joint venture; the opposition party says it will veto the deal.
Summary
Including orders, options and LOIs:
- Production slots are oversold through 2023.
- The skyline quality has some challenges.
- Only three dozen firm orders were announced at Farnborough; the balance has to be firmed up.
Pontifications: Supply chain melt down to get worse, says manufacturer
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 3, 2018, © Leeham News: There is more evidence the aerospace supply chain is in meltdown—and it’s going to get worse, a manufacturer tells LNC.
The OEM requested anonymity to speak frankly.
As aerospace analysts gather this week in Seattle for their annual investors day at Boeing, based on the research notes I see, there’s little indication they recognize the magnitude of the evolving problems with the supply chain.
Although the focus recently has been on Boeing and analysts will visit Boeing Wednesday, the issues affect all the OEMs.
I wrote about this 30 days ago. Since then, another Boeing supplier last month acknowledged late deliveries of key parts, reports the Puget Sound Business Journal.
This was followed by a Bloomberg report that Lufthansa Airlines continues to have shortages from Pratt & Whitney for the GTF engines powering the A320neo.
Since then, I’ve had my own additional conversations with the supply chain. The production ramp ups that already have been announced and those being contemplated are in peril and all manufacturers are being affected.
The Muddle of the Market aircraft (No, this isn’t a typo)
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Introduction
Aug. 30, 2018, © Leeham News: As time goes by, the Middle of the Market airplane appears to have 
become the Muddle of the Market.
Boeing can’t seem to close the business case on its Middle of the Market airplane, the New Midmarket Aircraft, or NMA.
And Airbus continues to stir the pot with talk of an A321XLR and the ever-present A321neo Plus.
Summary
- Boeing’s been talking about the MOM for six years—an extraordinarily long time.
- The aircraft evolved from a 757 replacement to a 767 replacement—something the 787 was billed to be.
- The business case remains unclear.
- The Airplane definition is still a matter of debate.
- The MOM was defined by Boeing as above the 737-9 and below the 787-8—but now there’s the 737-10 at the small end, for capacity, and renewed interest in the 787-8 at the upper end.
- Airbus is pushing the A321LR and nearing a decision whether to proceed with the A321XLR.
- Engine makers remain cool to the NMA.
- The supply chain is unenthused about the NMA because Boeing wants to capture the aftermarket and hold the intellectual property rights.
- The supply chain is in melt-down.
Other than this, everything is fine.
777F, 747-8F orders help former’s bridge, solidify Boeing as freighter king
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Introduction
Aug. 6, 2018, © Leeham News: The surge of orders at the Farnborough Air Show for Boeing 777 and 747-8 freighters is welcome news for Boeing, which still had 
production gaps to bridge between the 777 Classic and the 777X.
The 747-8F orders, for five, helps breathe life into this struggling program.
The orders also add to Boeing’s virtual monopoly in new-build cargo aircraft backlogs.
Summary
- 777F orders and commitments now nearly double the remaining 777-300ER backlog.
- Three new-build freighter models swamp Airbus offering of just the A330-200F.
- Airbus pitching UPS for A330-800F.
Pontifications: thyssenkrupp’s international expansion
By Scott Hamilton
July 30, 2018, © Leeham News: thyssenkrupp, the German supplier, is a mouthful to say.
Even its name is different, using the small “t” rather than a capital “T”.
Being from Chicago, I suitably butchered it when I met at the Farnborough Air Show with its CEO, American Laura Holmes.
I won’t even attempt to write how I mangled the name, but I didn’t feel too bad when I later discovered there is a 15 second YouTube video on its pronunciation: two-sen croup (in German) or tiss-in krup [as in pup] (in English).
Regardless, the company is in an expansion mode internationally—including in Africa.
Airbus posts strong earnings; ‘hell of a ride’ ahead, says CEO
By Dan Catchpole
J
uly 26, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus posted strong earnings for the year’s second quarter, thanks to better profitability on its A350 and A320 programs. Investors rewarded the news by pushing Airbus share prices to a 52-week high Thursday morning.
However, Airbus lowered its earnings for the full year due to its takeover of Bombardier’s troubled C Series program, since renamed the A220. Airbus plans to deliver 18 of the single-aisle jetliners this year.
Boeing cash flows generously, KC-46A snarfs up some of it
By Dan Catchpole
July 25, 2018, © Leeham News: The cash keeps flowing at Boeing. The aerospace giant posted free cash flow of $4.3bn for the second quarter of the year, despite recording $426m in costs related to its delay-ridden KC-46 tanker program.
Despite posting strong earnings, the charge rattled investors, who drove Boeing’s share price down in early trading Wednesday.
Boeing continues to work on closing the business case for its New Midsize Airplane (NMA), a business case unlike any the company has done before, Boeing chief executive Dennis Muilenburg said in a conference call with reporters and investment analysts.
Esterline’s Mason Products broadens its civilian use of unmanned systems controls
July 25, 2018, © Leeham News, Farnborough: A unit of Esterline Corp. that supplies parts for all commercial airliners, including the cockpit for the Embraer E-Jet E2 is creating an advanced control system for Unmanned Systems to keep the US armed service members out of harm’s way.
It’s appropriately called Harm’s Way Controllers, or HaWC®.
Esterline’s Mason Products company of Sylmar (CA) is also gearing up to sell this system to the civilian world, beginning with law enforcement, fire departments and other public agencies, says David Tessier, president. The HaWC is used on UAVs, robots that scout dangerous situations, helicopters (providing live situational awareness) and other applications.
Eventually, Tessier expects that HaWC will migrate to uses in environmental surveys, agriculture and inspections for such industries as oil and gas.