Leeham News and Analysis
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Supply chain may be stabilising — but risks remain, says Accenture’s aerospace lead
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By the Leeham News Team
August 12, 2024, © Leeham News at Farnborough: After a period of intense disruption, the aerospace supply chain is showing signs of stabilisation, partly due to Boeing’s recent production slowdown, according to Accenture’s global aerospace and defense lead, John Schmidt.
Titanium is now a scarce material given the sanctions against Russia. All Airbus and Boeing airplanes use the material. Photo Credit: Leeham News.
The reduction in output has eased some pressure on suppliers, allowing them to catch up on backlogs and recalibrate operations. However, Schmidt warned this respite may be short-lived as new challenges loom on the horizon.
Geopolitical tension involving Western nations and Russia, and the Asia-Pacific region, risks raw material shortages that may disrupt the delicate balance once more.
“The supply chain has evolved and changed in terms of where the focus is since COVID,” noted Schmidt in a sit-down interview with LNA at the Farnborough Airshow in July. “It wasn’t too long ago that we couldn’t get chips – chips were holding things back. It seems like we’ve gotten ahead of that, and now we’re dealing with trying to find other sources of supply, and sometimes it’s an issue with quality coming in.”
“What’s next is going to be sources of supply for things like titanium? There is enough in the supply chain already that has insulated the impact, but we’re starting to see early indications that [titanium] might be the next thing that comes up.” Read more
Farnborough, Day 4: Airbus comes from behind to win order contest
July 25, 2024, © Leeham News: Airbus came from behind today with a big order from flyNAS, a Saudi Arabian low cost carrier, for 75 A320neo family members and its first widebody order, for 15 A330-900s.
The announcement is a Memorandum of Understanding.
Airbus ends the show with 139 orders and commitments. Boeing ends the show with 118 orders and commitments.
ATR announced its only order for the show yesterday, for four ATR-72s from Air Tahiti.
De Havilland Canada ended the show with 22 orders and commitments for the Twin Otter and Certified Refurbished Dash 8-400s.
Embraer didn’t announce any commercial orders, but added nine C-390s to its order book.
Rolls-Royce aims to shorten hydrogen program pace
By the Leeham News Team
July 25, 2024, © Leeham News, Farnborough Air Show: Rolls-Royce is calling in data specialists Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) to help speed up the development of its hydrogen program, with the help of quantum computing and generative artificial intelligence.
Rolls-Royce hydrogen testing at DLR, Cologne. Credit: Rolls-Royce
The partnership – announced this week at the Farnborough International Airshow – aims to significantly shorten the design time for new hydrogen-powered propulsion systems under development at Rolls-Royce facilities.
The environmental benefits of hydrogen are gaining increased attention and have been front and centre at this year’s airshow. Hydrogen forms a central plank of the Rolls-Royce alternative fuels program.
Anupam Singhal, president of the TCS manufacturing division, told LNA the rationale for the collaboration with the engine manufacturer was bringing proven hydrogen-powered engine designs to market as quickly as possible.
“We have to look at all the tools and technologies available to us to make the entire ecosystem more sustainable,” he said. “Can we cut short the whole engine design time? Can we have this engine on the wing as quickly as possible?”
Under the expanded partnership, TCS will provide engineering skills and support for system design, component design, supply chain support, and program management to Rolls-Royce as it addresses three key challenges related to hydrogen: fuel combustion, fuel delivery, and fuel systems integration with an engine.
TCS has been working with Rolls-Royce for more than a decade, including testing to demonstrate the integration of technologies required for 100% hydrogen fuel operation on a modified Pearl 15 engine. However, this new partnership is not tied to any one product and aims to streamline the Rolls-Royce development program across its various hydrogen research projects. Read more
Customer interest in Open Fan increasing, says GE
By Scott Hamilton
July 25, 2024, © Leeham News: GE Aerospace advances testing and market information with its RISE Open Fan engine, which officials say is the best hope for reducing carbon footprints in the next decade.
RISE includes Open Fan, compact core, hybrid-electric systems, and alternative fuels technologies and research.
During GE’s 2Q2024 earnings call on July 23, CEO Larry Culp said GE continues to mature these technologies. “[We’re] moving from component-level evaluations to more module-level tests. For example, with our partner Safran, we’ve demonstrated the aerodynamic and acoustic performance of the Open Fan design with more than 200 hours of wind tunnel tests.
“Additionally, we’ve announced a new agreement with the US Department of Energy to expand supercomputing capabilities, which will further advance Open Fan design,” he said. “The Open Fan is the most promising engine technology to help the industry reduce emissions designed to meet or exceed customer expectations for durability and deliver a step change in fuel efficiency.”
GE held its earnings call during the bi-annual Farnborough Air Show. The timing was awkward; due to Securities and Exchange Commission regulations about sharing information in the 30 days before a call for analysts and shareholders, GE skipped the usual press briefing in advance of the show.
Farnborough, Day 2: Boeing dominates again
July 23, 2024, © Leeham News: Boeing dominating Day 2 of the Farnborough Air Show with a new, direct order for 20 737-8s from lessor Macquarie AirFinance, and a follow-on order from Qatar Airways for 20 777-9s.
Airbus announced a new order for seven A330-900s from Virgin Atlantic Airways and firmed up a previously announced order from Japan Air Lines for seven A321neos and 20 A350-900s.
Airbus, Pratt & Whitney, and Cebu Pacific Airlines of The Philippines celebrated a Memorandum of Understanding for an order of up to 152 Airbuses announced on July 2. This celebration is not in LNA’s table below.
De Havilland Canada announced orders for 11 DHC-6 Twin Otters.
Farnborough, Day 1: Boeing jumps to orders lead; De Havilland puts new life into the Dash 8-400
July 22, 2024, © Leeham News: Boeing was the clear winner in the orders announcements today at the Farnborough Air Show.
The beleaguered company announced orders, options, and commitments for 78 aircraft (see chart). Rival Airbus announced a Memorandum of Understanding for just five airplanes.
Tiny De Havilland of Canada announced firm orders and commitments for 11 “Certified Refurbished” Dash 8-400s.
The Certified Refurbishment Program is a multi-step process to rework used Dash 8-400s “to keep the fleet flying.” DHC terminated production of new -400s during the COVID pandemic when the old Bombardier factory at Downsview, Toronto, was closed. The airport there is being redeveloped. DHC is building a new plant in Calgary in Western Canada. It’s unclear if production of new -400s will resume. When the factory is complete.
“DHC has actively been acquiring aircraft in the marketplace and has begun upgrading these aircraft for delivery to customers looking to expand their fleets or become Dash 8 customers for the first time,” the company said in a statement.
DHC says refurbishments include:
- Aircraft configuration to match the customer’s existing fleet
- Completion of overdue maintenance, integration of Airworthiness Directives, and Service Bulletin upgrades
- Airframe life extensions through our ESP (Extended Service Plan) to extend the lives of Dash 8-100/200/300 to 120,000 cycles, or the ESP+ which can take the Dash 8-100 to 160,000 cycles
- Freighter conversions, including the introduction of the new Dash 8-400 Large Cargo Door and Quick Change between cargo and passenger missions
- Avionics upgrades
DHC has acquired 28 -400s for the program so far.
Pontifications: Boeing gets boost from Farnborough; now, it must deliver
July 25, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing announced last week during the Farnborough Air Show orders and commitments for 278 737 MAXes, nine 787s, and two 777-8Fs.
By Scott Hamilton
Now, Boeing must deliver. Some of the 737 delivery positions in earlier orders were promised to begin in 2023. Some in the Farnborough orders are promised from 2025. These early delivery positions are one of the reasons (but not the only, to be sure) that Boeing has won some 1,000 MAX orders since the plane was recertified in November 2020.
But Boeing struggles to bump its MAX production rate. Officials hoped to hit a rate of 31/mo early this year. Boeing hasn’t confirmed a report that it hit rate 31 only this month. Confirmation may come during the Boeing 2Q2022 earnings call on Wednesday. Delays from the supply chain hurt Boeing’s ability to ramp up. With a projected production ramp up to 52/mo by 2025 (the pre-grounding level in March 2019), the question is whether the supply chain will be able to meet Boeing’s schedule.
Farnborough Air Show winds up with post-pandemic slow pace
By Scott Hamilton
July 22, 2022, © Leeham News: The Farnborough Air Show produced little in the way of headline news. But Boeing comes away with some momentum. Airbus announced a big order on July 1, well ahead of the show, from China, leaving show orders in high double digits.
Boeing announced orders and commitments for 278 737 MAXes, including 100 firm and 30 options from Delta Air Lines. This order was the first from Delta in 11 years, ending a long-running behind-the-scenes streak of sour relations between the companies.
The order, for the 737-10 MAX, finally fulfills Boeing’s goal of getting the -10 into Delta. Boeing had counted on Delta being a launch customer of the airplane in 2017. As reported in my book, Air Wars, The Global Combat Between Airbus and Boeing, the bake-off between the MAX 10 and the Airbus A321neo came down in favor of the MAX 10. But CFM declined to grant Delta TechOps rights to perform maintenance, repair and overhaul for other airlines and lessors. Pratt & Whitney agreed, tipping the order to Airbus.
Also during the competition, Boeing was engaged in a trade complaint over Bombardier’s sale of the C Series to Delta. Boeing alleged Bombardier engaged in price-dumping, contrary to trade laws. Boeing won the trade complaint and a tariff of 292% was assessed on each C Series imported from Canada. However, the final review found no harm to Boeing, which hadn’t competed for the order, a required element to impose the tariff. Many observers thought Boeing’s timing concurrent with the MAX-neo campaign affected the decision. But as reported in Air Wars, Delta officials said this wasn’t a factor.
Few orders at Farnborough Day 3
By Alex Derber
(c) Airfinance Journal, July 20, 2022
The Farnborough Air Show is all but over with a few orders announced on Day 3. Airbus executives have now left the show, with no more orders expected from them.
Basking in Farnborough rebound, Boeing faces contract rejection at Defense unit
By Scott Hamilton
July 20, 2022, © Leeham News: While Boeing is basking in an upbeat Farnborough Air Show with sizable orders for the 737 MAX, it faces the prospect of losing a key contract vote on July 24 with the International Association of Machinists Local 837.
Local 837 represents Boeing workers in St. Louis (MO), where the Defense unit is headquartered. Union leadership recommended rejecting the contract, opening the door to a potential strike. Nearly 2,500 union members are eligible to vote on the contract offer from Boeing. The current contract expires at 12:01 AM St. Louis time on July 25.