Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing, Airbus still struggle with supply chains and personnel shortages December 13, 2024
- Airbus procurement head “convinced” supply chain issues are on right path December 12, 2024
- CFM gets FAA and EASA certification for a more robust LEAP-1A turbine. December 10, 2024
- Global instability poses questions for aerospace industry December 9, 2024
- How Trump tariffs affected, and could affect, Airbus, Boeing and Embraer December 6, 2024
Farnborough, Day 2: Boeing dominates again
July 23, 2024, © Leeham News: Boeing dominating Day 2 of the Farnborough Air Show with a new, direct order for 20 737-8s from lessor Macquarie AirFinance, and a follow-on order from Qatar Airways for 20 777-9s.
Airbus announced a new order for seven A330-900s from Virgin Atlantic Airways and firmed up a previously announced order from Japan Air Lines for seven A321neos and 20 A350-900s.
Airbus, Pratt & Whitney, and Cebu Pacific Airlines of The Philippines celebrated a Memorandum of Understanding for an order of up to 152 Airbuses announced on July 2. This celebration is not in LNA’s table below.
De Havilland Canada announced orders for 11 DHC-6 Twin Otters.
Click on image to Enlarge. Source: Leeham News, Company announcements.
Airbus is in the lucky position of not needing many new orders, what with their large
backlog.
True and well earned by Airbus
It sure does not discount the good news for Boeing that airlines feel they can get their act together.
What happened to VietJet 20xA330Neo?
Confirmed yesterday.
Not in the overview
I don’t see this in Airbus’ Press release page yet (https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom) Perhaps final details have not been agreed upon yet?
There is a rumor that it will be replaced by the B777.
But what are the prices? Special air show deals?
Yea, always the Boeing is giving aircraft away.
Like the old skipping record I have mentioned.
How much money BCA has lost from 2019? Can you count how much compensation credits were given out??
“Yea, always the Boeing is giving aircraft away.”
Surely that’s not how “Airbus” is spelled by you Americans?
Cant remember an air show this empty in a very long time
Agreed.
A relatively non-binding LOI (Korean), an MOU and a firm order from a previously-announced order (JAL), a revelation of the recipient of a previously-announced anonymous order (Qatar), a firming-up of a previously announced A330neo order (Vietjet), a small widebody order from Virgin…and a few small narrowbody orders.
No spectacle at all.
Do we need a spectacle or should we be happy aircraft are sold and backlogged into the 2023s for Airbus and maybe Boeing can start to get its act together?
There was not much Airbus could sell this airshow, and Boeing is not exactly short on backlog.
I interpret the lack of Max sales as a vote of no confidence until Boeing can establish the -10 as certified and to bring production back up to former levels. Maybe the only solace Boeing can take is that its legacy high volume operators did not pivot the the neo “yet”
They really cannot pivot.
United wants more A321 but can’t get them. Problem with great possible sales if you can not mfg the hulls .
Boeing will get back to the 38 a month and then its a matter of the FAA determining if they can be allowed to ramp up.
Orders and backlogs also need context. If the order is for 2030, then its not dire to put in an order that you might take up in 2035/40.
And sooner or latter this current order bubble busts and airlines will look around to sell slots.
Airbus has to keep an eye on the big picture and not ramp up so high that a downturn smacks them.
Its ironic Boeing has proofed itself from a downturn.
Qatar Airways’ 777X order isn’t a new order (https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/location/qatar-airways-reveals-777x-orders-placed-earlier-year)
From your link:
“The order, announced at Farnborough Tuesday, was finalized earlier this year but listed as unidentified on Boeing’s Orders & Deliveries website.”
Berniq Airways has placed a firm order for six A320neo Family aircraft (https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2024-07-berniq-airways-orders-six-a320neo-family-aircraft-to-support-growth)
Maybe it’s the moment for Airbus to (re)think the development of the A 350-2000. They really need something bigger than the A 350-1000.
Why?
The recently modified A350-1000 is now just 16 seats short of the seating capacity of the 777-9…but the former weights 30 tons less than the latter.
If a 777-9 has less than 96.25% load factor, then an A350-1000 can carry the passenger number concerned.
You think a new plane needs to be introduced to cover such a small difference?
Payload.
Anyway the airlines that buy these type of widebodies are putting in premium seats which the ‘wider widebody’ 777X is ideal
ie British Airways only has 330 seats in its A350-1000 and its 777-9 will have less ,325 seats [8F65W46C206Y]
Good luck with your budget airline seating
The interior width of a 777-9 will be wider than for a 777 classic. We will hear how well this will work for noice dampening.
are small differences in cabin width decisive for
First Class monuments?
My guess would be that it has much higher impact on 4th class 10across vs 11 across ….
A B777 cabin is 40 cm wider than A350
That does not exclude the other.
To me, a 79,5m stretch of the 350 looks like a no brainer:
– higher MTOW should soon be tested an certified with the 350-1000ULR and 350F
– simple stretch, unbeatable on seat/mile costs
– even if they are not as versatile as a 777X, they still will generate some orders
– RR should have some capacity to develop a slightly bigger version of its turbines before they go for the UltraFan
– Once the 350 gets neo-ized, the bigger version should be there already.
If they hurry, maybe they can deliver the 350-2000 before the 777X!
The market wants the smallest possible plane capable of connecting city pairs. An A220–500 would be next in my firing order
Casey:
You should look at the Mentour pilot Video on that.
Kill off the A320 and you loose commonality completely
I don’t envy Airbus in that regard. They are not making money and while its a great aircraft, it does not fit into the Airbus FBW controls method.
It would fit better with Boeing as the MAX has no commonality with anything above it. They could continue the MAX-8 (or shift to the -9) and have a fantastic aircraft under that (not that its going to happen)
Airbus did not need the A220. Boeing did. Airbus moved to keep it from Boeing and its going to cost for a long time let alone adding a new airframe.
Why should I listen to a yt channel about business strategies?
Hey, I sure wouldn’t want to “loose” [sic] commonality; who knows where it might up?
Boeing once intended to pay more than $4 billion for 80% of Embraer Commercial! Loose commonality!
No wonder certain outlets have to promote “loose commonality” ceaselessly.
A220:
A comfortable cabin, Generous seat pitch,
power outlets and IFE for
a domestic product.
https://x.com/simone_chellini/status/1816032859313869079
A more comprehensive strategy would involve re-winging the A320 and up-gaging that family
I would also point out that the A220 remains a low volume line. I wouldn’t be as concerned about killing off A320 sales when the back log extends to the end of the decade
Whether AB eventually re-wing the A32x series or replace it with something else is an interesting
question, business strategy-wise. Time appears
to be on their side.
“The harder I work, the luckier I get.” -Rod Laver
Casey:
The issue is that well over 50% of A320 sales is now the A321NEO. Clearly you don’t jump to that if you have an option in between and Airbus has never indicated they would offer that.
So a new wing and a longer fuselage and its no longer an A320, not sure what you would call it. Airbus in its thirst to prove it was an aircraft mfg of renown came up with a strange labeling system.
Boeing cleared that up by dropping the 100 prefixes and they can go up to -99.
Yes the A220 is low volume though 14 a month is nothing to sneeze at either (its more than Boeing puts out in some months!)
But the A220 is still a mis-fit for Airbus. An A320-EXT (extension) still leaves the A220 as an orphan.
Delta is the only airline I can think of that runs A220 and A320 series. But that is the nature of the sub A320 market, neither Airbus or Boeing really make a good aircraft down there.
Generally I have some ideas for resolution but that one has left me floored. Boeing would have benefited with that program and they could have made a determination of using the controls logic for a MAX-9/10 replacement. Less of a split as wide body pilots don’t tend to do Single Aisle ops nor the opposite.
That puts Airbus in a conundrum. Maybe like the 717 they just finally decide to drop it though that is hugely speculative and reputation wise a huge hit.
Many airlines already fly A220/A320 double
Swiss, Air France, Qantas [subsidaries], Air Canada, Jet Blue, Egyptair and so on.
The doomsayers about the A220 have long been wrong , its getting tiresome
I think in the future, the A220 family will fit nicely under the A320NEO family
https://groups.google.com/group/aviation_innovation/attach/57f1d448a2948/Airbus%20Future%20A320%20portfolio.jpg?part=0.1&view=1&authuser=0
An A220-500 and A320NEO would overlap in capacity, but not in payload-range, container capability, cockpit commonality. So it services different markets/ customers. More as an add on for A220-300 operators.
The A319 /737-7 have already become niche aircraft, largely replaced by more efficient A220-300s.
Duke:
Good catch on the dual user of A220/320
I really like the A220. I just don’t see it as a fit in the Airbus line.
Its like a toggle action.
1. Airbus converts it into the A320 replacement but no commonality in the controls ops. Assumes a new optimized wing for the A321.
2. Optimized wing for the A320 and what is the need for the A220?
3. New A320 type and same as number 2 question.
The -500 is a natural development but none of the control philosophy is going to shift over.
It can’t be sold as a regional.
Its a puzzler that maybe Airbus just plugs along with it never resolving its place until its replaced.
Why Boeing was eager to pursue Embraer Commercial??
Who else is going to order the MAX 7, other than WN??
Lol. American has like 133 A319 and United has over 80. Can Airbus add two big customers in the next couple of years?? Fun time.
“So a new wing and a longer fuselage… not sure what you would call it.”
It’s called the “Next Generation”. Haha.
I wonder what the chances would be for Airbus to sell the CSeries / A220 program to Boeing. They have to know that even if Boeing ran it, that they’d probably screw it up… At the very least, I think the Chinese would give them what they paid for it. But again, would they consider that… Strange things have happened before in the business world.
With regard to the Japan Airlines joint BA/AB order announced last March, how come the AB portion has now been completely firmed-up (announced today) whereas the BA portion is only in the MOU stage (announced yesterday)?
Engine haggling, as in the case of Turkish?
https://airinsight.com/japan-airlines-firms-order-for-21-a350-and-11-a321neo/
Japan Airlines 10×789 = firm + another 10 options
From the Boeing website:
“Once this order is finalized and posted to Boeing’s Orders & Deliveries website, the carrier will have 10 787s and 21 737 MAX jets on order.”
https://investors.boeing.com/investors/news/press-release-details/2024/Japan-Airlines-Will-Modernize-Fleet-with-up-to-20-More-Boeing-787-Dreamliners/default.aspx
“Airbus launches A330neo-based MRTT+ as demand booms”
“Airbus Defence & Space’s next multi-role tanker transport (MRTT) customer will be the first to acquire the capability integrated with the A330-800 airframe, with deliveries expected from late this decade.”
https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/airbus-launches-a330neo-based-mrtt-as-demand-booms/159315.article
https://airinsight.com/airbus-looks-to-launch-mrtt-based-on-a330neo/
“We’ve got you surrounded.” -AB
How’s that Boing KC-46 remote boom thingy going, anyway?
KC-46A boom mods?
Probably on hold, so as to divert all available personel to MAX-7/10 certification efforts.
Boy, would I *love* to see a detailed, fully audited financial accounting on the Boing KC-46A and its various subsystems (yes, I know it’s nominally a fixed-price contract) ..
the gift that keeps on giving
I wish that as smart as you appear to be spell Boeing. Thanks.
Grammar n*zism doesn’t bring anything to the discussion.
Especially in view of the anglo-saxon misspellings of the name “Böing” 🙂
“Probably on hold, so as to divert all available personel to MAX-7/10 certification efforts.”
Oh wow, Channeling Bryce.
And factually, the Boom mod is a USAF issue, they did the specification for that force factor and Boeing built it to the spec. The USAF is paying to fix it.
Equally technically the MAX does not have a boom so it does not have boom engineers on staff for that program.
But let the silly comments continue
What happened to those said “boom engineers” after the job is done? They have no other relevant skillsets?? Don’t be silly. 🙄 😂😂
[A] key step towards certification in 2025
“Between May and June this year, @TheRSAF A330 MRTT embodying the latest A3R system configuration, conducted ten flights with Portuguese F-16s and Singapore F-16s, F-15SGs fighters and another Singapore MRTT as receiver. As part of these night tests, contacts were carried out in different night illumination conditions and receiver external configurations. This milestone was achieved by following the development of new A3R night operation algorithms and new camera system standards.”
Airbus video
https://x.com/AirbusPRESS/status/1815676851861278918
https://aviationweek.com/shownews/farnborough-airshow/airbus-sees-mrtt-program-commitment-years-end
“Flydubai in talks with Boeing, Airbus for next major deal”
“Flydubai has begun exploring its next major aircraft purchase, a deal that would mark its biggest transaction yet to carry the company well into the next decade, Chief Executive Officer Ghaith Al Ghaith said.
“The company is evaluating options with both Boeing Co. and Airbus SE, the CEO said in an interview at the Farnborough International Air Show. The airline operates an all-Boeing fleet for now, but significant delays and cancellations with the US company are prompting a rethink of that exclusive arrangement for the next purchase. ”
“Flydubai is being forced to plan further in advance, which in turn stands to translate into the largest purchase in its 15-year history. Only last week, the airline was informed by Boeing that it wouldn’t receive any additional planes this year, leaving it with a significant shortfall at a time when air travel remains strong. ”
https://www.ajot.com/news/flydubai-in-talks-with-boeing-airbus-for-next-major-deal
Is that a repeat order from Virgin Atlantic?
There must be something good about the A330neo if customers are repeat-buying.
One way or another, it appears to be the first new, firm widebody order from the show…as opposed to re-heated and/or re-named earlier orders and non-committal LOIs.
To be clear, the A330 has a solid place in history. Boeing ensured that when they totally messed up the 787 program. It held a good place even before but Boeing made sure it sold in much better numbers with their messing up the 787.
But before people get all afflutter, keep in mind some airlines will take anything Airbus vs Boeing
That was more than proven when the various A330 upgrades were rejected and Airlines took the bigger A350.
I have no issue with that. If it works for you, of course you will go that direction though I thought it odd that size is supposed to be important and suddenly you get a bigger one.
The A330NEO is a A330 Mk I or II proposal that was shot down.
Air Asia was a huge proponent of it, that gone back and forth and now not so much. ie, moved to A350, then shifted back to A330NEO and ….
Delta is one of the solid supported but they to have shifted to more A350.
So while there is nothing wrong with the A330NEO (other than the iffy engine aspects that may or may not still be in play) like the 767, its not a mainstay in my opinion but an adjunct.
Who says they have shifted to A350.
Their A330 fleet is 70 planes , so far only 28 of those is the neo( out of 39 orders). Likely to grow as the high hours ones retire or they buy neos second hand
I dont know the cockpit details but I assume pilots are easily interchangeable between the 2
“GE_Aerospace revised it production guidance for the @CFM_engines LEAP again to 0 to +5% yoy compared to the previous +10 to +15%. That was already down from the earlier +20 to +25%”
https://x.com/rschuur_aero/status/1815846922416259428
“Knowing the problems and the backlog of delayed jets, Clark was skeptical of the delivery schedule mentioned in a big order announced by Korean Air on Monday, the opening day of the Air Show. […]
Clark said he doesn’t know how Boeing can promise a new customer delivery in 2028 because the original set of blue-ribbon airlines that ordered the plane in 2013 need to get their nearly 400 jets first. […]
Clark said he thinks Boeing could ramp up production to only about five jets a month by the end of 2027 or early 2028. Korean may have to wait, he concluded.”
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boss-of-biggest-777x-customer-wants-boeing-fixed-with-union-help/
More empty PR from the USian outfit. Let’s see when the *first* 777-X is delivered and enters service, let alone later ones.
The last claimed date I’ve heard from its maker is “late-2025”.
Don’t count on it.. as with the supposed MAX nacelle fix.
I guess those Airbus customers who ordered full cream A321XLR must be miffed at only getting only the previous A321LR gross weight version.
The promised HGW version ? TBA
So even more delays while the HGW is certified
Is the 101 tons variant only paperwork? Or is it a retrofit?
Interesting, it would be cool if Airbus retrofits an ACT to the current prototype that got certified (97t MTOW version) and get that certified too!
Or would the P&W version that they are getting certified going to be the 101t variant which they might be able to get it cross-certified for the CFM versions too?
EASA confirms to FlightGlobal that this is the current certified figure.
“However, Airbus intends to soon bring it up to 101t through a specific major change,” says the regulator.
“This will, for instance, allow the installation of an optional forward auxiliary centre tank that is supposed to be certified in the near future.”
https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transport/initial-a321xlr-certification-is-for-97t-version-with-higher-weights-to-follow/159225.article
Chief executive Gael Meheust says the powerplant was “always designed” with a 35,000lb (155kN) thrust capability for the higher MTOW.
“As a result, no engine modifications were required, giving operators the added benefit of 100% commonality with their existing A320neo family fleets,” he adds.
———————————
Given the added cert scrutiny
Aircraft Certification: How the Max crashes changed everything
https://leehamnews.com/2024/07/18/aircraft-certification-how-the-max-crashes-changed-everything/
‘Even Airbus didn’t escape the fallout with its long-range XLR variant of the A321neo needing extra insulation protection. This resulted in an increased weight to the airframe and a delay of about a year for certification.’
I’m guessing that Airbus just wanted to get the jet into service and into the hands of customers, then will go back and retro the changes for those aircraft, when the HGW cert is approved.
“101t variant”
elsewhere ( Airliners.net ) it was opined by a poster
that the higher MTOW “hangs” on the increased thrust to 35k engine(s) certification.
‘elsewhere ( Airliners.net ) it was opined by a poster’
Well then, I’m converted. Nothing I like to do better than take the opinions of posters, without evidence, over regulators and company bosses.
Evidence, of course, being the key point. Any engine OEM engineers saying that 35k is not doable on the XLR?
“converted”
I inserted the qualifiers intentionally. 🙂
35k versions were announced by both engine OEMs
.. rather early afair.
for the GTF:
https://web.archive.org/web/20140819182119/http://www.pw.utc.com/Press/Story/20140520-0902
EASA Cert does not currently show a 35k version. AFAIK
Has Airbus started to refund its customers? Don’t be silly.
So the current A321 XLR customers are just getting A321XL version with significant changes to the rest of their A321 fleets, loosing commonality. I suppose the crew needs extra training as well with the flaps change.
New wing Flaps, new underbody fairings in laminate, the new fuel tank thingy
All because they couldnt meet the already delayed date for certification.
Its a crock
Small Steps:
MAX deliveries to China resuming.
You don’t turn a problem company around on a dime, but you can do small steps that add up to a improvement.
👇👇👇
Jan 31 2024
Boeing reaffirmed its 2025 and 2026 financial targets: reaching about $10 billion of free cash flow
#Reassuring: https://www.boeing.com/company/bios/stephanie-pope
[Deleted as violation of Reader Comment rules.]
Vincent’s politically-oriented post was deleted as a violation of Reader Comment rules, so this response is moot and has been deleted as well.
–Hamilton
@Daveo
Not to mention she’s a former prosecutor. Matches up nicely with the current felon, on the other side…
“Airbus A330 MRTT completes automatic night air refuelling”
“During these flights, more than 500 contacts were performed, out of which more than 150 contacts were automatic in night conditions. As part of these night tests, contacts were carried out in different night illumination conditions and receiver external configurations.”
“This milestone was achieved by following the development of new A3R night operation algorithms and new camera system standards. The new camera system incorporates state-of-the-art technology that not only enables the A3R to operate at night, but also improves the image quality used by the air-to-air refuelling operator during manual operations, further enhancing the quality of the A330 MRTT’s vision system in day, dusk and night conditions.”
https://adj.com.my/2024/07/24/airbus-a330-mrtt-completes-automatic-night-air-refuelling/
—
Any updates on the FrankenTanker languishing (on the ground) over at BA?
Will the 767 get new engines?
Can anyone calculate the fuel offload capability at distance for an A330neo-MRTT vs. a KC-10?
offload is now limited by available tank volume 111t
OEW 125t + 111t > 233t MTOW of the current incarnation.
But the -900 now sports 251t MTOW!
that calls for aux tank ~~18t capacity 🙂
With the same fuel load range was also increased by 900 nm up to 8,150 nm.
When will the competition for KC-Y and KC-Z start?
Booming airlines,massive order backlog
All talk of “net zero”has vanished,just like it was all just hot air
With the shortage of skilled labour and subsequent massive increase in wages,how much damage has this done to both BA and AB,who presumably didn’t price that in at a time when Boeing was still a viable competitor and the market was cutthroat?
How much has the price of a new A321neo gone up in the last few years?
If we ignore / downplay Airbus JAL, Korean (March) and Virgin WB orders and forget the recent huge Saudia & Ceba Pacific NEO orders, while suggesting the Boeing Korean LOI is an order really, it looks like Boeing is making the ComeBack w’ve all been desperately waiting for. To restore the duopoly.
Throw in a few TGTBT forecasts and F15s to silence any questions and mainstream social media will just copy-paste perceptions.
+1
lipstick on a pig.
I’m not sure losing 27-20 on widebodies to Airbus is “Boeing Dominating”
I’m not sure winning 40-34 on total airframes is dominating either.
some context on contract value would be in order.
Came across this, not sure what to make of it.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4127596-hawaiian-holdings-tumbles-amid-report-doj-may-move-to-block-alaska-air-deal
“Delta CEO Ed Bastian arrived in Paris Wednesday morning for the opening of the Olympics as his airline struggled to recover from a five-day meltdown that left an estimated half-million customers stranded by thousands of flight cancellations.”
There’s gotta be a good reason for a CEO of an American corporation living like a King while his customers languish in the hoity toity… There’s just gotta be.
He did fly commercial…first class Delta
Boeing’s Most Relatable Problem: Finding a Parking Spot
https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/boeing-jet-parking-inventory-parts-shortage-13d007b9?mod=hp_lead_pos11
About 200 fully or mostly finished jets are idled while they await interiors, engines and other attention
Boeing is burning through more than $1 billion in cash a month as it has dozens of new planes sitting outside factories in need of parts.
——————————–
Inventory sitting idle only costs you money
$1B per month, and $4B in each of Q1 and Q2.
So, that means that the $10B raised in that recent bond issuance will be fully burned off by the end of August.
What then?
The additional debt came in after the Q1 results, in May – IIRC.
They’ll have $6bn plus whatever was left after Q1.
Cash and cash equivalents $6,914
Short-term and other investments 615
The situation is pretty bad at BA. There’s no need to pile on here. Boeing seems to be perfectly capable of shooting itself in the foot, with the facts stated just as they are. This is a 5-10 year renovation project, if done correctly.
” This is a 5-10 year renovation project ..”
Not from now but from when they begin a major revamp.
Hasn’t happened yet and AFAICS not in sight either.
Very much IMHO it looks like interested parties are still trying to wring $$$ from the carcass.
Well, there’s a 5 year spread in there, but you’re not wrong. If they get adult supervision in the decision making spots, then things will move along. If not…this could take awhile.
“Boeing has completed an agreement to plead guilty to criminal conspiracy in connection with two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jetliner
Bloomberg
https://t.co/FjuIXZ1o9X
https://x.com/AirEVthingTRNSP/status/1816268238566928462
While this guilty plea brings a certain amount of shame with it, the financial consequences are negligable. The fine is $243 million, which is lunch money for Boeing. Such nitor penalties just enable Boeing’s continued bad behavior.
And whoever said the sole purpose of Government is to wage war…
Judge O’Connor in Texas still has to rule on the deal…and will do so within 2 weeks.
“Boeing executives prioritized production over quality, Justice Department says in details of finalized plea deal
https://x.com/dominicgates/status/1816413074774982675
https://t.co/r7oVdXpD4p
Boeing Predicts China to Be Top National Market for Aircraft in the Coming Two Decades
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-25/airbus-leapfrogs-boeing-at-farnborough-with-major-flynas-order?srnd=homepage-asia
Airbus Leapfrogs Boeing at Farnborough With Major Flynas Order
Saudi carrier orders up to 160 narrow and wide-body jets
Deal for up to 30 A330neos gives Airbus model an added boost
Nice!
“With the late-breaking deal, Airbus has sold twice as many jets as Boeing Co. at the expo outside of London, the aviation industry’s biggest event of the year. But the US planemaker’s dominance in the wide-body category helped it nearly keep pace in terms of dollar value, based on estimates from aviation consultant Ishka”
“The Flynas order is a shot in the arm for Airbus’s A330 model, which is enjoying a second wind because of early availability and its favorable economics as long haul travel rebounds from the lows of the pandemic. Bloomberg News reported earlier about the potential for a Flynas order.”