Farnborough, Day 1: Boeing jumps to orders lead; De Havilland puts new life into the Dash 8-400

July 22, 2024, © Leeham News: Boeing was the clear winner in the orders announcements today at the Farnborough Air Show.

The beleaguered company announced orders, options, and commitments for 78 aircraft (see chart). Rival Airbus announced a Memorandum of Understanding for just five airplanes.

Tiny De Havilland of Canada announced firm orders and commitments for 11 “Certified Refurbished” Dash 8-400s.

The Certified Refurbishment Program is a multi-step process to rework used Dash 8-400s “to keep the fleet flying.” DHC terminated production of new -400s during the COVID pandemic when the old Bombardier factory at Downsview, Toronto, was closed. The airport there is being redeveloped. DHC is building a new plant in Calgary in Western Canada. It’s unclear if production of new -400s will resume. When the factory is complete.

“DHC has actively been acquiring aircraft in the marketplace and has begun upgrading these aircraft for delivery to customers looking to expand their fleets or become Dash 8 customers for the first time,” the company said in a statement.

DHC says refurbishments include:

  • Aircraft configuration to match the customer’s existing fleet
  • Completion of overdue maintenance, integration of Airworthiness Directives, and Service Bulletin upgrades
  • Airframe life extensions through our ESP (Extended Service Plan) to extend the lives of Dash 8-100/200/300 to 120,000 cycles, or the ESP+ which can take the Dash 8-100 to 160,000 cycles
  • Freighter conversions, including the introduction of the new Dash 8-400 Large Cargo Door and Quick Change between cargo and passenger missions
  • Avionics upgrades

DHC has acquired 28 -400s for the program so far.

Embraer gains C-390 orders

Embraer announced a joint order for nine C-390s from The Netherlands (5) and Austria (4).

Click on photo to Enlarge. Source: Leeham News.

92 Comments on “Farnborough, Day 1: Boeing jumps to orders lead; De Havilland puts new life into the Dash 8-400

    • Assuming the sales price wasn’t discounted to the point of decimating Boing’s margin…something that Boing has made a habit of.

      Wall Street wasn’t impressed, in any case: the stock is down today.

      • Day traders ..arent Wall St
        Its actually up $9 from Mon 22nd to Tues 23rd

        • Duke- since you’re here: do you have a link yet for the retraction of the fine and accurate ABC article on the ill-fated 737MAX that you said was imminent- a couple of years ago? I’m pretty sure you said “stay tuned”, or something like that. Well-sourced corrections to my claim are welcome, of course.

      • In this instance, it’s deliberately “Boing”…as in noise made by rubber ball.

  1. 😂
    “Sir Tim Clark announced a 777X testing campaign in Dubai for next summer.”

  2. “BoeingAirplanes says the KoreanAir order is still a Letter of Intent that needs confirmation. Cho added the widebodies are for both growth on high-demand markets and renewal, adding flexibility to its fleet after the integration of @Flyasiana .
    https://x.com/rschuur_aero/status/1815333449407815695

    “Ryanair expects to get another 4 BoeingAirplanes MAX 8200s before the end of July, growing the fleet to 160 but short 20 on contractual deliveries.
    https://x.com/rschuur_aero/status/1815266145181532305

    • An LOI from Korean…not even an MOU.
      Looks like someone was desperate to make an announcement at the show…🤔

      Also: Korean is still waiting for US anti-trust regulators to greenlight the Korean-Asiana merger. “You approve our merger, we’ll firm-up the LOI” 🤭

      • Remember the days when suddenly at the end of the year Airbus had huge order4s and jumped ahead of Boeing? They wo0uld list selling planes to their grandparents.

        A letter of intent from Abalone is a complete meh. Korean has credibility as one of what I call the sustainer class airlines. Not a flash in the pan or going away.

        • Remember the days when BA/BCA was making $$$ hand over fist?? Those were the days!

      • Some outlets call it a MOU. 🤯

        One thing is clear: not firm orders.

        • Remember the LOI from IAG for 200 MAXs?
          It eventually turned into a firm order for just 50 🙈

          • Airbus employees are busy figuring out how to increase production to meet customers’ demand.

  3. Twenty A330neos going to VietJet, if Bloomberg’s reporting is correct.

      • Thanks for the clarification. I continue to think the 330neo will prove to be a smart move by AB.

        • The A330NEO will have a low level build and be low end success but not the 1000 that Hazy predicted.

          Going forward Ai9rbus will certify the A330NEOMRT and stop production of the A330CEO.

          They may even do an A330NEO 900 -F (that is getting to be a mouthful) and they can put the dog sales of the A330CEO-F into the rear view mirror

          • Was it Hazy? I thought this number sounds more like Leahy, the AB super salesman

        • I too think the A330neo will end up doing quite well. Family members who’ve been on them rated the flight experience highly – quiet, comfortable, lots of tick boxes ticked. If the economics work for the airlines, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t sell in good numbers, even if that is “eventually”.

          So far as “keeping score” is concerned, order numbers are exciting but relevant only in that they promise future income if work is done and air frames + engines are delivered.

          • As regards your last point: BA has generated about $300B in revenue since 2018…but hasn’t generated a penny of profit from that.

            No point in getting orders if they just lead to (more) losses…

          • Matthew:

            I agree on the deliveries, those are solid. The rest is speculative at best.

            I have nothing against the A330. Seems like a good bird. I flew an A300 back in the 80s and was impressed. It was solid like the L1011, not the rattling loose parts the DC-10 was (never flew an MD-11)

            That said, modern seems to have influence and the A330 no longer is. Serviceable like a 767 (also liked it) but not the cachet.

            Airbus should consolidate all the A330 stuff into the NEO and get the larger scale out of it. Likely sell a bit better than the 767 (which is totally niche in freighters) but not anything like the 787 and A350.

      • AW:
        “During a Boeing briefing at Farnborough on Monday, JAL procurement SVP Yukio Nakagawa confirmed the 787 MoU, which will comprise 10 firm 787-9s and 10 options.”

        So a MOU to “firm” 10 787-9s??

        What’s going on?

        • Desperate to use the airshow to announce (jello) quasi-orders.

          No wonder Wall Street wasn’t impressed today 🙈

          • Like Airbus never did that.

            And then some are desperate to say someone is desperate so they can say desperate.

            Probably don’t remember the skipping record days!

          • Broken record. Time to fast-forward to “present” I.e. 2024.

  4. Its good to see the Dash 8 being supported and even possibility of future production.

    The ATR is such a dog compared to the Dash 8.

    BBD lt the program down big time, it can get close to the economic s of an ATR if you throttle back but it can lift a mountain with those engines, no route restriction flights.

    Curious how much more freight ti can lift thought that tends to package and its bulk more than weight.

    The Bandeirante was my all time favorite Turbo Prop but the Dash 8 is a close 2nd.

    • It’s certainly an interesting approach, and I hope they get good business out of it.

      The interesting thing is, could that be applied to larger aircraft like A320, or 737? I guess that Airbus’s manufacturing of A320 is already super slick, to be able to deliver more than 2 a day. My musings are that if something like an A320 could be reconditioned effectively, would that (indeed, could that) take pressure off the new-build backlog? Could a really cheap old A320 reconditioned make economic sense if there were a lot being revived so?

      Admittedly there’s a bit of a gulf between a Dash-8 and an A320 or a 737, but I do wonder what might be possible.

      I feel it’s beginning to get like that with cars. Getting hold of a new car that you’d actually want is becoming harder and harder; tarting up a rust-free high miler example of a car you’d actually want is growing in appeal, at least for me.

      • Matthew:

        I don’t see it for the LCA. If you build it up to current standards you have a hugely expensive upgrade. The Dash 8 is tweaks and not having to come up to a newer standard, just things like a bit of beef up here and there to extend the frame time as well as the other amenities.

        As for a rusted up car. I long had a history with the original Ford Bronco (owned 4). Frame up restore will cost you something in the $80,000 to 100,000+ . You got to get every spot weld and overlap seam.

        Take a look at this one. $189,000.

        https://kindredmotorworks.com/models/kindred-bronco/heritage-edition

        • I enjoyed riding in turboprops. I question reports that say the public didn’t like them. But maybe so…

        • Being from the UK, my appreciation for US vehicles comes courtesy of the education provided by Jay Leno. It makes a difference seeing US classics (and thence their modern descendants) through the eyes of someone like him, restoring them, talking about them, and also talking about European / Japanese cars.

          And, that Bronco does look particularly fine! I wasn’t quite thinking of restoration as deep as that, but why not?

          Here in the UK, even quite a basic car new now costs an obscene amount of money – a bottom of the range small car is now the equivalent of US$26,000. A BMW320d Touring is about US$65,000 all in. An $80,000 frame up restoration is not so very far away. If new car prices shift a bit more…

  5. “Emirates boss Tim Clark fears Boeing 777X won’t hit the skies until 2026”

    “”I don’t reckon [the plane] will be certified fully until the end of 2025 [and] in service for the likes of us … in 2026.””

    “”We will not take kindly to be pushed back by people who are coming in later in the programme … so that adds another layer of complexity for the people in Seattle,” Mr Clark said, referring to Korean Air’s planned 777X deliveries starting in 2028.”

    “Emirates plans to test General Electric’s GE9X, the engine that powers the 777X, in Dubai during the summer of 2025, according to Mr Clark.”

    “In the summer of next year, we bring one of the aeroplanes across to Dubai, take it up to max take-off weight … and then stress-test the engine,” he said.

    “The benchmark for the test will be maximum take-off at 42°C and pressure altitude of 600 feet, which are “fairly challenging conditions … but it really works the engine to its maximum,” he said.”

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/aviation/2024/07/22/emirates-boss-tim-clark-fears-boeing-777x-wont-hit-the-skies-until-2026/

    • If he wants all the 777X then he has to put up his money.

      Korean cannot get a slot that is committed to Emirates. Unless Emirates is playing games and not putting the money up front that secures a slot.

      TC is the one that said a miracle had occurred and the RR900+ got 5% better fuel economy than the GP7000 (which had a 2% fuel advantage and worked in that area fine)

      To put it in terms a non tech can understand, RR came out with the Trent 10 to fix all the issues of the Trent 1000 and match the GenX for fuel economy. It was a 75% new engine.

      It still failed to meet GenX specs and barely met the RR commitment to the original specs.

      An all new engine might have done that, certainly the 10 did not. But a modifies 900 suddenly has 7% fuel improvement! I call BS on that.

      Putin becoming a monk is more likely.

      • ICAO carbon emissions rules required major changes anyway for Trent engines from early 2000s, they just used selected technology from XWB engine

        GEnx has been doing ‘technology insertions’ as well, under the cleen program- with FAA money

  6. Slightly off-topic, but possibly to make an appearance in the Farnborough Air Show.

    I’ve noticed in the Japanese press (Sunday’s Nikkei) that Mitsubishi has announced that will start making parts for Airbus, specifically emergency doors for A320 family aircraft. Manufacturing will be in Vietnam, commencing in August.

    The article then went on to compare the scale of business done in Japan in conjunction with Airbus and with Boeing, noting that Mitsubishi’s business with Boeing was (normally) quite large. But it also pointed out that Airbus has a lot of orders and a high delivery rate, and is generally ever more eclipsing Boeing.

    The clear suggestion is that Mitsubishi and other Japanese aviation concerns are moving to expand relationships with Airbus, because their business with Boeing is looking like a liability. Mitsubishi were said to be looking to expand on their renewed relationship with Airbus (17 year gap apparently).

    So, what to make of that? One of the big killer questions is, could Airbus set up an A320 FAL in Japan?

      • Ah! Thank you.

        Mrs. Me gets the Japanese language Nikkei newspaper, which I thought wouldn’t be so useful to post a link to (apologies to all those Leeham News readers who do in fact speak Japanese).

        • I for sure am not a Japanese speaker and my German is so badly dated as to be non existent (I think I could still ask what time it was)

          That said, I find it a weird interpretation and no, there is never going to be an FAL in Japan.

          Airbus in fact is over FALd. Boeing can crank out 50 some MAX out of Renton on two lines (the third is being used for P-8 or E-7)

          US and China are two of the bigamist buyers in the world (or China was, their goal of course is to kill all single aisle buys in China from all but COMAC though it will take 100 years)

          Boeing and Japan relationship is based on building stuff in Japan, not Vietnam.

          Mitsubishi is expanding its business and Airbus may be doing more source but its not leading to anything startling. Frankly it does Japan zero good though it may meet Mitsubishi goals. Japan itself is not going to be happy to see the big M move aviation stuff out of the country, the goal and policy to support them has always been to bring it into Japan.

  7. Congratulations for Bowing on the LOI for 777-9s and extra 787-10s.

    Feels a bit like a make good order, after Korean ordered a A350-1000 fleet a few months ago.

    Almost all legacy’s have now ordered A350s, ANA not if I recall right..

    • From the link:
      “Suppliers now openly dismiss OEM master plans—something akin to heresy or insanity in a previous era—and no one is surprised that

      Airbus recently walked back its A320 outlook.

      Boeing is expected to do the same as soon as it can find someone to become its next CEO, if not sooner.”

      I like the qualifier in the last sentence 🙂

  8. RR Looses Again:

    IAG is ordering GE engines for its next batch of 787s. That is the wooden stake into the heart of the Trent 10.

  9. “..Airbus will stay focused on its own goals and standards as its US rival, Boeing, works through its commercial aircraft production problems, executives at the French manufacturer said.

    “What happens at Boeing is, at best, a healthy reminder to us of the things that you don’t take your eyes off,” Airbus Commercial Aircraft CEO Christian Scherer told media on the eve of the Farnborough Airshow. “It is not good news for our industry as a whole, when one of the players loses its way.”..”

    https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/location/airbus-chiefs-comment-boeing-troubles

  10. Nice Bonus is the E-7 agreement to proceed with the USAF. More NG hulls to build.

    Both the P-8 and E-7 are turning into great success. Clearly a lesson in the long view on the E-7 and a well structured program on the P-8 that added capability starting with the base P-3 systems with open architecture to add features in the future vs kludge in.

  11. Unfortunately BA’s $2 billion bet in next-generation fighter appears premature. When will return finally appear in its books? 2035??

    Also
    “Colbert said the second-quarter results will resemble those of last year’s third quarter—when the defense division took nearly $1 billion in losses. The second-quarter charges will be from a mix of Boeing’s big fixed-price development programs and “continued operational challenges,” he said. Those third-quarter losses included $482 million from the much-delayed effort to produce two VC-25B presidential jets, which so far has cost the company more than $2 billion. Their delivery date has slipped from this year to at least 2027 and 2028.”
    https://www.defenseone.com/business/2024/07/more-bad-news-boeing-defense-horizon/398205/

  12. “A mysterious one (for now) @avherald reported that a KLM B-787 made an uneventful flight from Chile to Argentina, but a post-flight inspection after landing in Buenos Aires revealed damage to the jet, cancelling its next flight. Currently, the type and extent of the damage remains unspecified. Jet [Registration PH-BHA] remains grounded

    https://x.com/OnDisasters/status/1815404560229269619

  13. I know this is not commercial sales, but that C-390 if it “gets legs,” it could replace a lot of C-130s in foreign sales. Embraer appears to have designed and built a heck of a hauler. Too bad for Lockheed, and Boeing for passing on an merger with the Brazilians.

    • LM has a captive customer. It made like $7 billion profit last year.

      • C-130’s have been pushed through by congress for decades. Without the USAF asking for them. A schoolbook pork barrel contract.

        https://www.goiam.org/news/imail/iam-leads-call-to-fully-fund-iam-built-c-130j-military-aircraft/

        Continuity, family incomes & an outdated product are the results. The KC390 & A400M are both superior, versatile aircraft.

        Specially the KC390 vs C130; cheaper & superior in payload, range, speed, space, operating costs. Calculated denial & confusion is still there, but it’s sinking in now..

          • political clout tops “better” on a regular basis.

            Even in rather unobtrusive cases:
            Ask Air Alaska how well they fare with “All 737” 🙂

          • Just compare the cargo hold weidth and height of all transporters in question:
            C-130: 3.1 m x 2.7 m (w x h)
            KC-390: 3.4 m x 3.1 m
            A400M: 4.0 m x 3.85 m (4.0 m behind the wing)

            What kind of military vehicle still fit inside a C-130?

          • C-130 has genuine rough field capability, A400M has ‘grass’ capability, while the C-390 has almost none
            I think the payload range of the TP is better than the jet powered C-390.
            But for those militaries doing a lot of route flying C-390 is way ahead.

      • The main point I had hoped to make was that the C-390 is going to replace a lot of the C-130s sold to foreign countries over the last many decades. It looks like there is a market out there for 100s of sales. Good proven engines, maybe the fuselage and wing might need a few tweaks, but this looks real good for Embraer.

  14. .. Goldman Sachs: Our aircraft delivery tracker, based on Planespotters data, shows @Boeing delivered 23 aircraft in July thru 7/21, incl 17 737 MAX, 3 787, 1 777, and 2 other. Of the 17 MAX deliveries we estimate 12 were new production deliveries, with 5 from inventory.”

    https://x.com/LeehamNews/status/1815340334634955106

    • Related:
      “Boeing is losing $1 billion a month with planes awaiting parts – and they are sitting in employee parking lots”

      “Part shortages and other issues have left Boeing with roughly 200 mostly finished jets sitting on airfields, outside plants and even in employee parking lots, according to the Wall Street Journal.”

      “Some planes need interior parts and others need engines, according to the report. While others are finished and awaiting delivery to China.”

      https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/boeing-plane-parts-supply-chains-b2583504.html

    • Those GS figures indicate an extrapolated line rate of just 18 p/m for the MAX and 5 p/m for the 787.

      Not anywhere near enough to cover BCA’s monthly costs.

    • Relax: with a mere 550 orders to date, the 321XLR is just a “niche aircraft”.

      /sarc

    • “John Plueger, CEO of influential Los Angeles-based airplane lessor Air Lease Corp. sees the XLR as offering airlines new capabilities that may “take a bite out of the widebody jet market” that serves international air travel. […]

      He said lessors like to buy planes that they can lease to multiple customers and the customer base of the A321neo is unmatched.
      “It makes the MAX 10 more of a niche aircraft,” Plueger said.”

  15. The rarely-seen Ms. Pope of Boing says at Farnborough “we are a stable company.”

    If you have to say it..

    • The rating agencies disagree with Ms. Pope.
      Or, perhaps, she has a different definition of “stable”?

      “stable
      noun: stable; plural noun: stables
      a building set apart and adapted for keeping horses.”

      🤭

  16. So, Qatar said yesterday that it won’t be announcing any major orders at this airshow.
    Turkish effectively said the same — still haggling with GE over engine pricing.
    Emirates recently said that it will need months to finalize its upcoming big orders.

    Who does that leave?

    The Saudis are looking to order 30-50 A330 neos…unclear how “ripe” that potential order is.

    Looks like a relatively dull airshow going forward…

    • FARNBOROUGH, England (Reuters) -More plane orders flowed in at the Farnborough Airshow on Tuesday despite supply chain pressures on jetmakers and complaints from airlines about delivery delays.

      Airbus announced deals with Japan Airlines and Virgin Atlantic, while Boeing bagged an order from Macquarie Airfinance.

      https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-snaps-deals-qatar-airways-114806644.html

      “I think all of us on the airline side are slightly surprised by the long impact of COVID on the supply chain,” Virgin Atlantic CEO Shai Weiss told Reuters, as his airline ordered seven Airbus A330-900s in a deal worth $807 million, according to estimated delivery prices from Cirium Ascend.

      Japan Airlines finalised an order for 20 Airbus A350-900 and 11 A321neo jets to be delivered from 2028, worth just over $3 billion in total, according to Cirium Ascend estimates.

      Macquarie Airfinance, meanwhile, ordered 20 Boeing 737 MAX-8 planes to be delivered in 2029-2030, worth just over $1 billion, according Cirium Ascend estimates.

      • Small fry.
        And the Japan one is just a firming-up of an earlier announcement.

    • The 777-9 has certification challenges because it is certified as a 77W derivative, while in reality it’s an all new aircraft (new wing, engines, fuselage structure, landing gears, tail, cockpit).

      Now the 777-8F is to be a radical derivative of the 777-9.. Anyone thinking certification will be a regular one, is from another planet. It helps selling the A350F.

      IMO there will exemptions allowing the 77W cargo conversions to go beyond 2028. To protect Boeing, environmental requirements will be ignored. Like with the 767 a few months ago. A sad reality.

      https://www.freightwaves.com/news/congress-exempts-boeing-767-freighter-from-2028-production-cutoff

  17. The partners are kicking money in:

    https://montreal.citynews.ca/2024/07/23/quebec-invest-millions-airbus-mirabel/

    Quebec to invest hundreds of millions to build Airbus A220s at Mirabel plant: reports

    The Quebec government is expected to announce that it’s preparing to inject hundreds of millions of dollars into Airbus to build A220 aircrafts at Montreal’s Mirabel plant.

    Premier François Legault will be making the announcement this afternoon alongside Quebec Minister of Economy, Innovation and Energy, Pierre Fitzgibbon.

    The Mirabel assembly plant currently has 1,300 employees, but it’s not yet known whether this investment will lead to any new jobs.

    —————————————

    If the gov’t, as 25% partners are kicking money in, so is Airbus, like last time.

    Not sure what it could be for. I know there are options on land surrounding the current facilities, which Airbus holds, where production could be expanded. They can get up to 10 a month done with the current facilities they have.

    Tooling? Isn’t everything there fairly new already? Staffing?

    You would think the obvious choices are 4 things:

    Tooling.
    Employees.
    Expansion.
    Cover losses.

  18. Airbus turning customers away as orders back up

    https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1052481/airbus-turning-customers-away-as-orders-back-up-1052481.html

    Airbus said that its order backlog is now so large that it is turning away customers, especially in the narrowbody or single-aisle short-haul space.

    Speaking at the Farnborough Airshow, chief executive Guillaume Faury said it cannot produce planes quickly enough to match demand in the market currently.

    “Today we have to refuse orders because we are not able to deliver in the time frame that is requested,” Faury said.

    • Strange…in view of the availability of (so-called) slots over at McB.

      Mmhh…might reputation be playing a role? 🙈

    • It already brings something new in terms of provenance…and probably in terms of pricing, too.

  19. “flydubai will take zero additional Boeing 737 MAX planes this year and is pissed. The carrier took the unusual step of issuing a press release announcing the shortfall – on day one of #FIA24, no less – and noting it will have to cut routes/frequencies as a result.”

    https://x.com/WandrMe/status/1815348887344804103

    • It’s boiling over.

      AW:
      “FLYDUBAI says its expansion plans have been significantly hampered by Boeing’s delays in its aircraft delivery schedule, resutling in fewer aircraft being delivered every year for past three years (14 due in ’24 will not be delivered).”

  20. So: will the firm now firmly based in Lobbyist Heaven get yet another waiver / exemption, allowing them to keep producing the stone-age 767F?

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