Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 23. Development risks. September 6, 2024
- If a strike occurs, here’s what Boeing can do September 5, 2024
- China banks on C919, but numbers say it still needs Boeing September 2, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 22. High Turbine technologies. August 30, 2024
- The A330 for medium haul or twice the frequency with A321XLR? Part 1 August 29, 2024
Farnborough Air Show, July 17: Orders summary, reflections of the show
Orders continued to trickle in as the Farnborough Air Show winds down (there could be others not listed here).
- Airbus: Transaero, LOI for 12 A330neos and eight A330ceos; Hong Kong Aviation Capital firms up an order for 40 A320neo and 30 A321neo aircraft, announced at the Paris Air Show last year. Here is the Airbus wrap up press release.
- Boeing: Summarizes its performance at FAS with this press release; 201 orders and commitments.
Items of interest:
- Emirates Airlines says it could order 60-80 A380s if Airbus proceeds with a neo.
Overall reflections:
Posted on July 17, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Farnborough Air Show, July 16: MRJ program analysis
After a long drought of orders or even LOIs and MOUs, the Mitsubishi MRJ program saw some life at this Farnborough Air Show.
Sales of Japan’s first commercial airplane since the propeller-era’s YS-11 stalled with orders from SkyWest Airlines, Trans States Airlines and Japan’s ANA.
But at the FAS, Mitsubishi announced an MOU with Eastern Air Lines, a US start-up carrier, for up to 40 and a much smaller order for six from Air Mandalay.
The Eastern MOU can fairly come under scrutiny if for no other reason than the company is a start-up. Little is known about its financial fund raising and the business model–to begin as a charter airline and transition to a scheduled carrier in the highly competitive US Southeast–doesn’t instill a lot of confidence. EAL, named after the old trunk carrier that went out of business in 1991, has also ordered the Boeing 737-800 after initially announcing plans to begin service with the Airbus A320.
Posted on July 15, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Farnborough Air Show, July 15: WA State and Mitsubishi; PW GTF issue revealed, finally;
The news that Mitsubishi will stage flight testing for its new MRJ 90-seat jet program at Moses Lake (WA) is, parochially, good news. And it is exactly the type of non-industrial aerospace business that we’ve been advocating for Washington since our consulting days to the State Department of Commerce in 2010, and during our tenure as a member of the Board of Directors for the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) for three years (2010-2013).
Washington, understandably, has been married to, and focused on, industrial aerospace. Boeing is here, of course. The supply based the supports Boeing has a huge footprint in Washington. But industrial business is highly capital-intensive, and winning this business is highly competitive.
Posted on July 15, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Farnborough Air Show, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney
777-9, 777X, Airbus, Beyond Boeing, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Farnborough Air Show, Gov. Christine Gregoire, Gov. Jay Inslee, GTF, Japan Air Lines, Jim McNerney, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi MRJ, Pratt & Whitney, Pratt & Whitney GTF, Space Shuttle
Looking ahead to 2013 in Commercial Aviation
Last year yielded a few surprises in an otherwise predictable year.
Jim Albaugh shocked the aviation world when he retired unexpectedly at age 62. He was expected to remain in his position as CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes until mandatory retirement at 65.
EADS CEO Tom Enders unleashed a surprise merger proposal with BAE Systems. The deal didn’t work due to German government opposition, but he ultimately accomplished a governance restructuring—a key objective of the merger—that will reduce government meddling in the future.
Those were about it. Boeing’s much-anticipated Authority to Offer the 777X didn’t happen. ATO for the 787-10 was stealthily granted. Airbus and Bombardier, to no surprise, delayed the A350 and CSeries by a few months. Boeing came roaring back to become sales leader for the first time in about a decade, on the strength of 737 MAX sales.
What’s ahead for 2013? Here’s what we see.
Overview
With the spurt of 737 MAX sales over, narrow-body sales competition between Airbus and Boeing should return to normalcy. Will twin-aisle sales become the next growth market because of the first flight of the A350 and the program launch of the 7870-10? Will ATO of the 777X evolve into a program launch as well? Will Bombardier’s first flight of the CSeries and subsequent testing validate its claims for the new technology airplane and finally spur a large number of sales of the “show me” crowd?
Here’s our OEM-by-OEM rundown.
Posted on January 2, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries, EADS, Embrarer, Farnborough Air Show, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi
737, 747-8, 767, 777, 777X, 787, A320, A330, A350, A380, Airbus, ARJ-21, ATR, ATR72, Boeing, Bombardier, C919, Comac, Embraer, GEnx, GTF, Irkut, LEAP, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, SSJ-100, Sukhoi, Trent 1000-Plus
2011 Outlook for Aerospace
Note: this is unusually long, 11 pages when printed.
The new year is here and it is time for our annual look-ahead for the big OEMs.
On a macro level, 2011 should be a good year. Airline passenger and cargo traffic recovery should continue. The global economy also is recovering, but it is almost painfully slow to do so. Still, this is better than some of the alternatives.
Airlines and lessors are likely to continue their order stream that resumed in mid-2010 at the Farnborough Air Show. There could be some key orders that will influence the OEMs and their strategies going forward.
On the military front, we are much more limited in our tracking. We follow the KC-X tanker program because the offerings are based on commercial airliners. We slightly follow the P-8A Poseidon for the same reason, but Boeing pretty much has the monopoly for this type airplane, so there isn’t much to follow.
We do closely follow cybersecurity issues, if for no other reason than it is so important but also because key aerospace companies, including Boeing, have major efforts in this arena.
But by and large, we focus on the OEMs, the emerging competitors and the new engines.
So let’s get to it.
Posted on January 3, 2011 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus A330-800 and -900neo, first analysis
Airbus cleared the air about the A330neo, which we concluded was a must last December, and made the 2014 Farnborough Airshow go off to an exciting start. A lot has been speculated about the A330neo, and in the end it did come out a bit stronger than what most had anticipated. Some of that is marketing but a lot is real, and here we give a first assessment of what was launched.
Let’s start with the specifics as given by Airbus and Rolls-Royce today in presentations and discussions. Here are the A330-800neo and -900neo’s main features: Read more
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Posted on July 14, 2014 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, EADS, Farnborough Air Show, Leeham News and Comment, Rolls-Royce, Uncategorized
777X, 787, A330, A330neo, A350, Airbus, Boeing, Rolls-Royce