Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 23. Development risks. September 6, 2024
- If a strike occurs, here’s what Boeing can do September 5, 2024
- China banks on C919, but numbers say it still needs Boeing September 2, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 22. High Turbine technologies. August 30, 2024
- The A330 for medium haul or twice the frequency with A321XLR? Part 1 August 29, 2024
Pontifications: New war of words erupts
By Scott Hamilton
July 11, 2016, © Leeham Co., Farnborough Air Show: The war of words between Airbus and Boeing is legendary, and it continued unabated today, the first day of the Farnborough Air Show.
- See my column in Forbes for a rundown of the first day’s orders at the Farnborough Air Show.
Boeing continue its refrain during its press briefing that its airplanes are better than Airbus. Airbus returned fire moments later in its own press conference that followed Boeing’s.
But the more interesting war that is emerging is between Embraer and Bombardier.
Bombardier sees more C Series orders this year
Our coverage of the Farnborough Air Show begins today with an interview with Fred Comer, president of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft. There will be paywall and freewall posts throughout the FIA16 this week.
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Introduction
July 10, 2016, © Leeham Co., Farnborough Air Show: Winning major orders from Air
Fred Comer, president of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft.
Canada and Delta Air Lines earlier this year and the entry into service of the CS100 this Friday with launch customer Swiss International Air should give Bombardier’s bet-the-company gamble a boost for more orders this year.
This is the prediction by Fred Comer, president of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft.
During an interview with LNC on a media demo flight of the CS100 at the Farnborough Air Show, Comer said the smaller BBD can compete with the behemoths Airbus and Boeing for orders in the 125-150 seat sector.
Summary
Comer says:
- Boeing’s prospective 737-7.5 still won’t be competitive.
- The CS100 is better than the Embraer EJet-E2.
- Embraer’s complaints of unfair competition because of Canadian government investment are unfounded.
Read more
Bombardier’s CS100 media flight demonstrates quiet
July 10, 2016, (c) Leeham Co.: Our coverage of the Farnborough Air Show (#FIA16 on Twitter) begins today, with a media flight on the Bombardier CS100. The day was rainy and somewhat turbulent until the flight got above the clouds. Some videos are jumpy as a result.
There are several videos about the flight and some with interviews following the page break.
Quiet taxi
The first video is intended to demonstrate the quiet Pratt & Whitney engines during taxi.
Boeing MAX program progresses well
Our coverage of the Farnborough Air Show begins today with an interview with Keith Leverkuhn, VP and GM of the Boeing 737 program. There will be a combination of paywall and freewall posts.
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Introduction
July 10, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Farnborough Air Show: The Boeing 737 MAX flight test
Keith Leverkuhn, VP and GM of the Boeing 737 program. AIN Online photo via Google Images.
program is going well, with the company looking for ways to add improvements to the airplane even before it enters service next year.
Improvements, which include airplane and engine components, are intended to provide dispatch reliability close to the 99.98% of the 737 NG and extend on-wing time for the reliable CFM56 engine that has powered the 737 since introduction of the 737-300 in 1984, says Keith Leverkuhn, VP and GM of the 737 program.
Summary
- Many of the major tests are completed.
- Boeing, CFM see opportunities to insert components into the LEAP-1B during flight testing to extend on-wing time from entry-into-service.
- MAX 7X (or “7.5”) can be done within the “confines” of the current MAX program.
- A larger MAX isn’t ready to go yet.
IATA, Lufthansa cargo reports are discouraging
July 6, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Going into the Farnborough Air Show (#FIA16 on Twitter) next week, ominous signs continue to emerge about the health of the air cargo
Photo via Google images.
industry.
The International Air Transport Assn. (IATA) Wednesday said yields and traffic remain under pressure. Freight tonne kilometers fell 0.9% year-over-year, IATA reported.
“Yields remained pressured as freight capacity measured in available freight tonne kilometers (AFTKs) increased by 4.9% year-on-year,” IATA said. “reight demand decreased or flat lined in May across all regions with the exception of Europe and the Middle East. These regions recorded growth in air cargo volumes of 4.5% and 3.2%, respectively, in May, compared to the same period last year.”
Lufthansa Cargo saw yields in a “landside” drop, according to a Bloomberg report.
Farnborough Preview #3: Analysts weigh in
July 6, 2017: The industrial portion of the Farnborough Air Show (#FIA16 on Twitter) officially begins Monday and runs through Thursday. There are also some special events Sunday. LNC will be reporting from the Show throughout the week.
Below are a few final previews from aerospace analysts, followed by other analyst reports for the last week. There will be no Weekly Analyst Synopsis next week because of the Show.
Highlights below:
- Expectations for orders modest-to-slow. (Credit Suisse, JP Morgan).
- Southwest MAX deferral (Credit Suisse).
- Airlines face softer environment. (JP Morgan.)
- MOM Aircraft and 777X. (Buckingham Research.)
- Spirit Aerosystems looks to A350 charge.
Pontifications: Boeing is back
By Scott Hamilton
July 4, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It’s looking like all the pain and agony of the 787 development is behind Boeing. (Except for the deferred production costs, of course.)
Boeing is back into airplane development mode.
To be sure, only one of these is a new airplane. The others are derivatives. But at least Boeing seems to be on the move after slowing the train (to mix the metaphors) considerably following the 787 debacle.
Farnborough Air Show preview: expectations and possible surprises
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Introduction
July 4, 2016, © Leeham Co: The Farnborough Air Show begins next Monday and predictably, focus will be on orders.
With new airplanes from Airbus and Boeing past their development stages, conventional wisdom says there won’t be much new in this arena.
Don’t be so sure.
Bombardier is now on an upward trajectory, but don’t look for a big splash at #FIA16 (for those looking for this year’s Twitter handle). Embraer will have its E190-E2 at the show.
It’s Boeing’s 100th Anniversary and the company is rolling out the history for the show.
Summary
- No new products from Airbus.
- Boeing may have a surprise.
- Low number of orders anticipated.
Pontifications: Time to calm down from last week’s news cycle
By Scott Hamilton
June 27, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Last week turned out to be one of the busiest in aviation in quite some time.
- Details of the Iran Air Boeing “order” emerged. Everyone overlooks that this is really a “Memorandum of Agreement,” which is subject to who-knows-how-many contingencies.
- Frothing occurred over news that Volga Dnepr (Air Bridge Cargo) may firm up 10 orders for the 747-8F, an MOU announced at the Paris Air Show last year, at this year’s Farnborough Air Show. This, along with the Iran Air “deal,” was viewed as savior for the 777 Classic and 747-8 lines. Not so fast.
- Southwest Airlines announced it’s deferring 67 Boeing 737 MAX deliveries until well into the next decade. This prompted some to claim this is a harbinger of bad things to come for Boeing.
- Brexit was viewed as a disaster for the global economy, Airbus, Boeing, Europe’s airlines and all mankind.
As you can see from my sarcasm, I disagree with each of these. Here’s why.
Farnborough Air Show Preview: Orders aren’t the only thing to look for
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Introduction
John Schmidt of the consulting firm Accenture, wearing smart glasses for augmented reality.
June 27, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The Farnborough Air Show (FIA16) is closely watched for orders placed with Airbus, Boeing and to a much lesser extent, Bombardier and Embraer. Orders are the headline grabbers and are viewed as indicative to the health of commercial aviation going forward in the near- and mid-term.
But the consulting firm Accenture, in an interview with LNC says there are other benchmarks to watch for at FIA16.
Summary
- A large number of new entrants into aerospace is competing for engineering talent, and it’s not the conventional suspects.
- Execution will be of greater importance than new products.
- The ascent of disruptive technologies; and
- Doubling down on data deluge.