Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 5. Turbofan design problems April 26, 2024
- Airbus 1Q2024 results: Airbus CEO: “A350 in-service experience drives positive reputation and orders” April 25, 2024
- A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 3 April 25, 2024
- Boeing CEO promises company is turning around…again April 24, 2024
- Solid start for stand-alone GE Aerospace despite cuts to LEAP output April 23, 2024
Pontifications: Boeing is back
By Scott Hamilton
July 4, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It’s looking like all the pain and agony of the 787 development is behind Boeing. (Except for the deferred production costs, of course.)
Boeing is back into airplane development mode.
To be sure, only one of these is a new airplane. The others are derivatives. But at least Boeing seems to be on the move after slowing the train (to mix the metaphors) considerably following the 787 debacle.
Farnborough Air Show preview: expectations and possible surprises
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Introduction
July 4, 2016, © Leeham Co: The Farnborough Air Show begins next Monday and predictably, focus will be on orders.
With new airplanes from Airbus and Boeing past their development stages, conventional wisdom says there won’t be much new in this arena.
Don’t be so sure.
Bombardier is now on an upward trajectory, but don’t look for a big splash at #FIA16 (for those looking for this year’s Twitter handle). Embraer will have its E190-E2 at the show.
It’s Boeing’s 100th Anniversary and the company is rolling out the history for the show.
Summary
- No new products from Airbus.
- Boeing may have a surprise.
- Low number of orders anticipated.
Pontifications: Time to calm down from last week’s news cycle
By Scott Hamilton
June 27, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Last week turned out to be one of the busiest in aviation in quite some time.
- Details of the Iran Air Boeing “order” emerged. Everyone overlooks that this is really a “Memorandum of Agreement,” which is subject to who-knows-how-many contingencies.
- Frothing occurred over news that Volga Dnepr (Air Bridge Cargo) may firm up 10 orders for the 747-8F, an MOU announced at the Paris Air Show last year, at this year’s Farnborough Air Show. This, along with the Iran Air “deal,” was viewed as savior for the 777 Classic and 747-8 lines. Not so fast.
- Southwest Airlines announced it’s deferring 67 Boeing 737 MAX deliveries until well into the next decade. This prompted some to claim this is a harbinger of bad things to come for Boeing.
- Brexit was viewed as a disaster for the global economy, Airbus, Boeing, Europe’s airlines and all mankind.
As you can see from my sarcasm, I disagree with each of these. Here’s why.
Farnborough Air Show Preview: Orders aren’t the only thing to look for
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Introduction
John Schmidt of the consulting firm Accenture, wearing smart glasses for augmented reality.
June 27, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The Farnborough Air Show (FIA16) is closely watched for orders placed with Airbus, Boeing and to a much lesser extent, Bombardier and Embraer. Orders are the headline grabbers and are viewed as indicative to the health of commercial aviation going forward in the near- and mid-term.
But the consulting firm Accenture, in an interview with LNC says there are other benchmarks to watch for at FIA16.
Summary
- A large number of new entrants into aerospace is competing for engineering talent, and it’s not the conventional suspects.
- Execution will be of greater importance than new products.
- The ascent of disruptive technologies; and
- Doubling down on data deluge.
Airbus exploring higher capacity A350
By Bjorn Fehrm
23 March 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus is showing a select group of airlines a stretched version of the A350-1000. The idea is to get enough feedback from potential customers so that a decision to go ahead or not can be made during the summer. Airbus COO customers, John Leahy, told LNC at the ISTAT conference earlier this month that an announcement could be made at the Farnborough Air Show in July. Other sources say it might take longer.
We have covered the possibility to extend the A350-1000 to a longer 400 seater version in several articles over the years. The key question for Airbus is how large is the market for a dual aisle twin with 400 seats and has Boeing already covered a large part of that market with its 777-9?
What has changed now it that the A350-1000 is taking form on the Airbus Toulouse Final Assembly Lone (FAL) and Airbus can now see that the A350-1000 will hit its performance and weight numbers. Airbus also has a lot of learning from the A350-900 which makes it confident that an A350-1000 stretch can be made with rather small changes.
ISTAT Day 1: Leahy’s biggest fear: producing enough planes to meet demand
Feb. 29, 2016, (c) Leeham Co: Aircraft lessors financed 48% of the Airbus deliveries in 
2015, with direct sales and sale-leasebacks, says John Leahy, chief operating officer customers for Airbus.
- We’re at the 2016 ISTAT AGM in Phoenix and will be reporting today and tomorrow on presentations and news from the sidelines.
“Lessors are a key and integral part of our strategy,” Leahy said. Airbus only financed 2% of its own products last year. Export Credit Agencies financed only half the numbers of Boeing, he said.
Leahy does not see a downturn any time soon.
Bjorn’s Corner: What Paris Air Show taught us about East and West.
By Bjorn Fehrm
25 June 2015, © Leeham Co: With a few days in the office one can look back at Paris Air Show with a bit of perspective. So what are the impressions?
It was surprising how many orders Airbus and Boeing landed. Both had played down the expectations, telling that it will be a decent show but nothing close to record. Yet both were booking orders or commitments which were better than expected going into the PAS. Read more
Pontifications: Final thoughts of the Paris Air Show
- Our interview during the Paris Air Show with Tom Williams, president and COO of Airbus Commercial, is now open to all Readers. Williams discussions production, supply chain issues, launch aid for the potential A380neo and more.
By Scott Hamilton
June 22, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show was largely as expected, with a few small surprises. Boeing did better than expected via-a-vis Airbus, actually leading slightly in firm orders and tied in orders-and-options going into Thursday. This is virtually never the case, particularly at the Paris Air Show, Airbus’ “home” turf. At the same time, some Wall Street analysts noted the firm orders fell below expectations. I’m not especially concerned about whether an announcement was firm or a commitment, because the latter typically firm up, if not within the current calendar year then usually in the next. Note, for example, Boeing announced the launch of the 777X program at the 2013 Dubai Air Show was some 200 commitments, or thereabouts, but the orders didn’t firm until 2014. Airbus announced a commitment for 250 A320s from Indigo in 2014 and it will likely be firmed up this year.
Bjorn’s Corner: Paris Air Show review
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 18, 2015, c Leeham Co: With the industrial part of Paris Air Show over (the public portion continues through the weekend), one can start to summarize impressions. I have over the years participated in around 10 Paris Air Shows or Farnborough International Air Shows. This was one of the first where one could see that people were stopping and looking up to observe the aircraft which were quiet.
Pontifications: Looking ahead to 2016
Jan. 4, 2016, © Leeham Co. Let’s take a walk through our outlook for 2016.
Boeing is 100
There will no doubt be all kinds of celebrations at the Air Show. To the extent possible, I would imagine Boeing will try to have a whole lot of orders to announce there. There will be all kinds of run-up to the 100th anniversary. Few throw a party as well as Boeing. (Just don’t sing “Happy Birthday;” I never have liked this song.)
It’s a great achievement and we should all celebrate with Boeing for the next seven months.
Read more
101 Comments
Posted on January 4, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
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