Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 5. January 17, 2025
- What’s the future of the Boeing 787-8? January 16, 2025
- FAA understaffing affects air operations oversight; NTSB falls short, too January 13, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 4. January 10, 2025
- The market is ready for a 787F. But is Boeing? January 9, 2025
How Trump tariffs affected, and could affect, Airbus, Boeing and Embraer
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 6, 2024, © Leeham News: President-elect Donald Trump vowed to immediately impose a 25% tariff on “ALL” imports into the US from Canada and Mexico, and 10% from China.
Last week, he threatened to impose a 100% tariff on imports from the BRIC-aligned nations if they move away from the US dollar in international economics.
The BRIC nations begin with Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the “BRIC” part of the group). Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, South Africa, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates round out the group.
There is widespread criticism of the potential damage the Trump tariffs could impose on the US economy. The targeted countries would be certain to impose tariffs on US goods.
The impact could be significant for commercial aviation—and Boeing in particular. Before its repeated self-inflicted wounds began with the 2018/19 737 MAX crisis, which continues today, Boeing was by far the largest US exporter. Deliveries of its 7-Series airplanes outside the US helped balance the trade deficit the US usually has.
Before Trump’s first term, China was the largest customer for Boeing airplanes. Deliveries accounted for 25% or more of Boeing’s annual deliveries. After
Trump took office in 2017 and imposed tariffs on China, Beijing stopped ordering Boeing airplanes. China was the first country to ground the MAX after the two fatal accidents. It was the last to recertify the airplane. And there still remains a sizeable inventory of undelivered 737s awaiting Beijing’s approval for delivery, one by one.
Trump also imposed tariffs on Airbus imports into the US as part of the two-decade-long World Trade Organization (WTO) trade dispute between Airbus and Boeing.
However, imposing tariffs is a complicated process. LNA extensively reported on the WTO battle (see related articles). We explain this further below.
Related Articles
Leeham News articles:
- Boeing files trade complaint vs Bombardier with Trump Administration 4-27-17
- Boeing C Series trade complaint is no surprise 5-1-17
- Boeing-Bombardier trade complaint revisited 7-31-17
- Decision was expected, tariff is a shocker in Boeing-Bombardier case 9-26-17
- Assessing the impact of the Bombardier tariff decision 9-27-17
- No harm to Boeing, what happened and what’s next 1-26-18
- Insignificant impact from steel tariff 3-2-18
- China tariffs on Boeing airplanes unlikely 3-14-18
- Boeing yields on C Series tariff case; what’s next for Bombardier? 3-26-24
- Trump proposes tariffs on Airbus; EU likely to retaliate 4-9-19
- EU ready to instantly retaliate if US imposes tariffs in WTO case 9/29/19
- US imposed $22m in Airbus tariffs in 2019 3/3/20
- EU tariffs on Boeing airplanes in effect 11/16/20
- US to tax fuselage, wings, tail imported for Airbus’ Mobile plant 12/31/20
A little history
The longest-running trade dispute probably was between the US Trade Representative (USTR), on behalf of Boeing, against “illegal” subsidies used by Airbus to launch every one of its airplane programs from inception in 1970 with the A300. These subsidies came from the French and German governments, local taxing jurisdictions, and other entities. Called launch aid, the governments would advance Airbus hundreds of millions of dollars for each airplane program. (For example, the German government alone advanced $600m for the A380.) Airbus also paid below-market interest rates.
The objection by Boeing (and McDonnell Douglas before it disappeared into Boeing) was that no repayment was required if Airbus didn’t make money on the airplane. If it did, royalties were paid in perpetuity. Boeing claimed the non-repayment feature disadvantaged it since it had to fund its airplane programs in the commercial markets at market rates.
Airbus’ response was that the subsidies, eventually branded as Repayable Launch Aid (RLA), were essentially risk-sharing quasi-equity investments. Airbus said it continues to pay royalties on the A320 program, launched in 1984, and the A330, launched in 1987. Airbus lost money on the A340 and A380, so no royalties were paid on these programs.
Boeing persuaded the US government to file a trade complaint with the WTO in 2004. The European Union (EU), at Airbus’ urging, filed a counter-complaint the next year. The EU complaint alleged Boeing got illegal subsidies from NASA, the US federal government’s aerospace research agency. It also alleged Boeing illegally used money from US Defense Department contracts to benefit the commercial division Finally, the EU contended that Boeing received illegal state subsidies from Washington, Illinois, and South Carolina.
Trump levies tariffs, the EU retaliates
The case dragged on until 2019 when the WTO found Airbus and Boeing benefitted from illegal subsidies (Airbus more so than Boeing) and appeals were exhausted. By then, Trump took office in 2017 and levied tariffs against Airbus and other EU industries for fines authorized by the WTO. The EU followed suit. The tariffs were just 10%, later increased to 15%,
Under WTO rules, tariffs don’t have to be confined to the offending party’s products or even the industry. While Trump levied tariffs on Airbus aircraft delivered from its Hamburg and Toulouse facilities to US airlines and lessors, tariffs were also levied on aerospace-related industries. The EU did the same.
However, Trump initially exempted Airbus’ new A320 final assembly line in Mobile (AL) from the tariffs. Alabama was then, and is now, one of Trump’s strongest supporting states in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 elections.
It’s also important to note that tariffs are not imposed on the final delivery cost of an airplane, whether Airbus or Boeing. They are only imposed on the parts manufactured in the offending countries. Airbus and Boeing source components and parts in the US and EU. These are not subject to tariffs, nor is the value of the final assembly. The result is that tariffs applied to airplanes may be much smaller than one would think.
Tariffs aren’t as big as maybe thought
In March 2020, LNA reported that Airbus paid $22m in tariffs for 2019, the first year they were collected. However, the US Treasury collected a total of $221m in tariffs from the EU for goods imported into the US. The average tax on imported Airbus aircraft was $1.84m per airplane.
The US tariffs on the EU, including Airbus, and the counter-tariffs on the US, including Boeing, were suspended when Joe Biden became president in 2021. Both the EU and USTR representatives decided (after years of avoiding the issue) that the WTO should examine China’s state subsidies to the state-owned COMAC. COMAC developed the C919, which competes with the A320 and the 737. It’s developing the C929 to compete with the A330neo and the 787. So far, no trade complaint has been filed against China.
Boeing and Bombardier
One of Trump’s first acts upon taking office in 2017 was to impose a 20% tariff on imported Canadian wood. This was done by the US Department of Commerce and not via the WTO. This apparently laid the foundation for Boeing to file an unfair trade practice complaint against Bombardier over the sales of a large order for its C Series to Delta Air Lines. Boeing competed for the order by offering the 737-700 and a bunch of Embraer E-190s it had taken in on trade from Air Canada. Delta rejected this offer pretty much out of hand, as the -700s were older generation airplanes and the E-190s were, too.
Nevertheless, noting that Bombardier took an “onerous contract” charge on the Delta airplanes, Boeing filed a complaint for “dumping” aircraft into the US. It was no surprise that Trump’s Department of Commerce found in favor of Boeing (the DOC acted in a matter of months, not years, like the WTO). However, the industry was shocked when the department announced a tariff of 292% on the importation of the C Series. This was enough to potentially kill the Delta deal and, likely with it, the entire C Series program—which was Boeing’s goal.
However, the DOC finding had to be validated by the International Trade Court (ITC) as having caused harm to Boeing. The ITC reviewed the file, the testimony, and Delta’s outright rejection of the 737-700/E-190 offer from Boeing. It ruled unanimously that Boeing suffered no harm. The case went away.
Today’s tariff threats
In a classic case of being careful what you ask for, Boeing’s complaint pushed Bombardier over the edge. It sold 50.1% of the C Series program to Airbus and committed to build an FAL in Mobile. Airbus later bought the rest of Bombardier’s share (25%). A Quebec, Canada, pension fund owns the other 25%. Boeing, which passed on the chance to buy the C Series when offered because it wanted to kill the program entirely, would rather have competed against BBD. Instead, it now had to compete against Airbus.
During the C Series complaint, Boeing agreed that the Mobile A320 assembly line was a US-made product. With this part of the Commerce Department’s record, the C Series (renamed the A220) now has a US assembly line.
Canada
So far, Trump has not threatened to reimpose tariffs on Airbus. But Airbus imports major components from Canada into the US for the A220 for assembly in Mobile, where an A220 final assembly line was built in response to the Bombardier trade complaint. These components, which include the fuselage, tail, and wings, among other things, are trucked to Mobile from Canada. In an interview last week at the Aviation Forum 2024 in Munich with Juergen Westermeier, Airbus’ chief procurement officer, he said it was too soon to know how the tariffs will or might apply to the Mobile import of Canadian A220 parts and components.
Boeing has plants in Canada and purchases major components, such as the landing gear for the 777, from Canadian companies. This would be subject to Trump’s vow to place tariffs on “ALL” stuff imported from Canada.
China
Airbus has a deep relationship with China. Chinese companies supply Airbus’ European FALs. It’s unclear if any Chinese parts and components are shipped directly to the Mobile A320 FAL. Boeing, too, has deep production and supplier ties to China. In this 2022 document, Boeing highlights its relationship. These parts would be subject to tariffs.
Mexico
Boeing sources parts and components from Mexico, but currently doesn’t have any identified backlog with Mexican carriers.
BRIC
Trump’s latest threat to impose a 100% tariff on BRIC-originating stuff imported into the US would seem to snare Embraer, a Brazilian company. Embraer is now the only producer of regional jets that complies with US pilot labor contract Scope Clauses. Scope limits the number, passenger capacity, weight, and sometimes the route length regional partners of US legacy airlines may operate for the major carriers. The E175-E1 is currently the only in-production airplane meeting Scope.
Embraer wants to sell the E195-E2 to US mainline carriers. Tariffs would also impact this type.
India is becoming an increasingly important commercial aviation supplier to Airbus, Boeing, and potentially Embraer. Embraer does not have a US FAL.
Potential impact
Countries affected by a Trump-imposed tariff are certain to retaliate.
Airbus has hundreds of aircraft orders by US carriers, including 242 A220s.
Today, Boeing has 144 7-Series aircraft ordered by China, mostly 737s, that remain undelivered. There may be more in Boeing’s “Unidentified” customer column. There are 74 airplanes ordered by Canada’s Air Canada and West Jet that are identified. Others:
- 83 737s for Brazil’s GOL;
- 649 for Indian airlines, though 135 are for the bankrupt Jet Airways and unlikely to be delivered;
- 486 for the United Arab Emirates (we can predict what Emirates Airline president Tim Clark, with 225 orders, would have to say about that);
- 54 for Ethiopia;
- 5 for South Africa.
Embraer has 175 E-175s orders by US airlines.
Very thorough summary by LNA!
In addition to *parts*, the broadening trade war is starting to affect *materials* used in the aircraft industry.
For example, gallium-based alloys are used in (high-temperature parts of) jet engines, whereas Ni-superalloys used in jet engines also contain various rare earth elements, such as Dy and Nd.
Moreover, GaN is extensively used in cutting-edge radar systems for military jets.
All this is now in jeopardy as a result of China’s ban on exports of various specislist metals to the US (a tit-for-tat response to US semiconductor restrictions on China). China has a near-monopoly on the extraction and/or processing of a whole list of specialist metals. It will take years for (a small group of) alternative sources (e.g. in Vietnam and Brazil) to catch up.
Airbus launch aid wasn’t just from France and Germany.
Trump’s BRIC/US$ stance is interesting. As the economic crown jewel and keystone nothing is more important economically to the US. But a 100% tariff strikes me as a way to forecfully ensure those on the receiving end determine once and for all to decouple from the USA/US$. Just as things such as export restrictions and F35 politicisation push (or force) non-US buyers to switch away fom the US sphere on militar product. Feels like the US government (not just Trump’s) could benefit from realising rigid things cause stress build up and then failure.
Of course, neither incoming POTUS-47 nor his [Edited] minions understand the nuances of tariffs, etc. To them, its as “clear” (I’ll use that term very loosely) as an “on” and “off” switch.
Spot on. All they understand is tearing things down. Any brainless rock can do that.
Or…
If you follow the money trail, you’ll notice that the tax cuts for the 1% from the 45 admin are set to expire. They added $1 trillion to the nat’l debt, during his first four years.
He wants to continue the tax cuts but needs revenues to cover the shortfall, hence the tariffs.
He’ll get everyone else to pay for the shift upwards.
I thought the tax cuts and other fiscal policy of 1.0 increased the National Debt from about 20 Trillion to 30 Trillion… give or take a Trillion or Two.
Trump and Biden: The National Debt
Jun 24, 2024
President Trump approved $8.8 trillion of gross new borrowing and $443 billion of deficit reduction during his full presidential term.
President Biden has so far approved $6.2 trillion of gross new borrowing and $1.9 trillion of deficit reduction.
https://www.crfb.org/papers/trump-and-biden-national-debt
—————————————————-
The tax cuts alone, added a trillion.
$7T of the US national debt matures in 2025, and will need to be rolled over at higher interest rates.
That’s in addition to an estimated $4T in new debt to be concurrently issued.
So, that’s $11T in one year — with (far) fewer foreign lenders standing in line.
That’s going to be interesting.
The article above hasn’t addressed jet fuel prices, which are also an important consideration.
Contrary to common belief, the US is not self-sufficient as regards oil use. It currently imports more than 5 million barrels per day, with the top 5 suppliers being Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Colombia.
– Canada and Mexico are getting tariffs slapped on all products — so that will include oil.
– Iraq is increasingly distancing itself from the US and increasing its ties with China.
– Saudi Arabia has been invited to join BRICS, but hasn’t yet accepted or declined. Many observers believe that it’s biding its time until the right moment comes. In the meantime, it has joined mBridge, opened a large currency swap with China, is increasingly cooperating with China on defense matters, and has openly expressed a readiness to trade oil in yuan. Needless to say, if Saudi Arabia starts to price/sell bulk oil in any currency other than the dollar, there will be a significant shock wave in the market.
In that regard, it should be noted that the UAE is already accepting 6 currencies for energy exports (dollar, euro, yuan, rupee, ruble, dirham) — though its total oil exports are 1/3 those of Saudi Arabia. Qatar is also selling vast quantities of contract LNG to the EU, with pricing in euros.
One should also note that Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia have all openly started campaigns to reduce dependency on the US dollar — and all of those countries are important players in the petroleum supply chain.
So, it looks like Trump is going to be sanctioning the whole world…and shooting himself in the foot in doing so.
The sanctions on oil is not relevant to this article. Don’t go down this rabbit hole.
Hamilton
Sorry…was just pointing out that there’s potential fuel-related trouble on the horizon for airlines.
However, you’re right to point out that the article is about aircraft OEMs, and not the broader aviation sector.
It will be interesting first week for Make Tariffs Great Again guy being in office for the commercial aircraft industry
if he puts 25% tariffs on A220 fuselage coming from Canada to Mobile A220 FAL, its a tariff on Canada, but will Airbus (EU) respond? will this cause a a tit-for-tat response with US and EU?
as for 25% tariffs on Mexico aerospace exports to the US
just a fyi…”According to FEMIA estimates, the Mexican aerospace sector grew from 100 manufacturing companies and organizations in 2004 to 368 by mid-2022. ” “In general terms, 79 percent of all firms are manufacturers”
Mexico’s Aerospace Exports to Surpass US$10 Billion by 2024
“Mexico is projected to exceed US$10 billion (MX$180 billion) in aerospace exports by the end of 2024, marking a significant achievement for the country’s aerospace sector.”
Thanks for the info…I have been collecting information for my new research paper titled “Global Decoupling of the US Commercial Aircraft Industry: Trade Implications on New US Tariffs, Sanctions and Subsidies.”
Its “Back to the Future” but this time Comac is a real player
COMAC is a player in China, its not a player yet and may never be on the world stage.
Oh please look at their performance in any other industry.you can comment on alleged piracy but where are 99 per cent of phones made.
They did not steal that tech
Ditto chips.
Ditto electric cars and batteries.they invented it as well as solar panels
Not sure who you are replying to as your response is ambiguous.
No one mentioned piracy (just to keep it on subject, how do you tariff that?)
You clearly do not understand China and its economy (even on the larger view)
First there are the exported industries that were set up and controlled by various Western firms. They did not need piracy, those firms shipped their IP over there to make lower cost stuff. Now they think twice as they also loose it.
Its not just cell phone companies, its equipment mfgs. As they control the quality and their stuff winds up in equipment around the world (some more than others) its going to meet say Volvo specs and if not, its fixed.
Then there are Chinese government companies, COMAC being the poster child. Rice Bowel industries that will never compete.
Those are aided by IP theft mostly via internet.
Throw in the pirates allowed to operate by the government. Those are low level rip offs, watches and Guchi bags.
There are also free enterprise ops that as long as they don’t step on government controls, they are allowed to function relatively freely.
Not sure how you tariff that sort of thing, well you can’t, but Trump will tell you his tariff fixes all.
But in the ends its all about tax cuts for rich people and the folks at the bottom pay the tariffs and think twice the next time they pull the voting handle.
Oh, I thought it could only get better, nope, as the guy said, it can get worse and sure enough, it did.
Re piracy we often hear this comment regarding China stealing ip etc but is that worse then reverse engineering a la Tesla .
Sadly the western world is not prepared to work as hard as less developed countries.
Chinese ev engineers want to work for US companies to work less and avoid the 996 culture in china.
9am to 9 pm 6 days
“9am to 9 pm 6 days”
holidays?
How does it compare to the US?
( few holidays, trend towards 2 jobs to cope, .. )
@Uwe
Wikipedia
Golden Week (China): three separate 7-day or 8-day national holidays
===================
Trans
Is this your imagination hard at work? I believe what comes out from EASA. 🤣
It may evolve with partners in other countries like India/Brazil/Mexico/Saudi/UAE/Turkey and new generations with better price/performance/easy of build be developed and finally be EASA/FAA certified. China has to be careful and keep signed agreements for the west to believe in their honesty in addition not harassing its neighbours.
I really don’t think that many of COMAC’s potential customers will be too concerned about China “harassing its neighbors”.
Here in the West, we seem to have little problem buying stuff from notorious harassers…and even actively supporting them in their harassment. Why would other buyers behave any differently?
Last time around Trump blocked the WTO court of arbitration by not naming a representative.
This seems to still be an active issue?
i.e. you can take the US to court but nothing will happen.
https://www.google.com/search?q=WTO+court+of+arbitration+blocked
from the 50,000 ft. view, the US loses more WTO cases than it wins
The problem with WTO process in large commercial aircraft dispute filings, it can take over a decade to get a court decision….
As for subsidies, who really needs them now to launch a new clean sheet commercial aircraft Boeing or Airbus?
That said, it would be interesting the Make Tariffs Great Again guy would file a WTO case against China for the tens of billions in government subsidies for Comac (e.g. C909, C919 and C929)……$50 to $70 billion is the best guess going around the industry
Then what about a possibility of the US banning for exporting of CFM International LEAP turbofan engines to China…..interesting times in geopolitics!
@David P
The figure of “$50 to $70 billion” being thrown around is hogwash.
Read this intervention by @glennluk
“From this we have a very precise estimate of the total spent (opex, capex, working capital) from inception through 2022: Less than $12B. This is 6x lower than the CSIS estimate, which was only through 2020.”
“Moreover, only a fraction of that amount is R&D.
Amounts also need to be allocated to ramp up manufacturing (capex), opex, interest charges, working capital.
Actual R&D could be much lower, anywhere from $4B to $7B at the high end.”
https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1767770604072046818
its China and developing their commercial aircraft industry from scratch…they don’t go along western financial norms…(e.g, working capital ratios)
as reference “The 787 Dreamliner program has reportedly cost Boeing $32 billion” then add 777x….
(Comac) “The aircraft received between $49-$72 billion in state subsidies, much more than the aid that Airbus and Boeing were given by their governments, according to Scott Kennedy, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.”
David P
1. Ask Scott K where his figure comes from. Lol
2. I don’t believe the disastrous development programs of the 787 and 777x should be used as shining examples or baseline comparison for others;
3. The US spends like over $900 billion on military but struggles to maintain its surface and submarine fleet. That spending is like the sum of the next nine highest spenders!
@ Pedro
The EU defense budget for 2024 is €326B ($345B).
China’s 2024 military spending is $471B.
It’s amazing what you can develop, buy and maintain for a given amount when you’re not wasting exhorbitantly.
@Abalone
That number is an estimate; on a comparable basis, it is estimated that the total defense spending by the U.S. is $1.3 trillion, almost three times of that by China.
https://tnsr.org/2024/06/estimating-chinas-defense-spending-how-to-get-it-wrong-and-right/
“China’s 2024 defence budget reached RMB1.665 trillion (USD236 billion)”
It is not that simple: are they state subsidies or its owner investing in the business? COMAC is government owned.
You can look through US eyes but the rest of the world works different. In parts of the world, there is big overlap between government finances and investments. China is one such place, but the same happens in other places like the Middle East, other parts of Asia and even Norway.
My tax is reduced significantly by investment income of the local sovereign wealth funds. Singapore Airlines profit reduces my tax. Temasek Holdings (government owned) owns more than 50% of SIA and provided significant funds to support SIA through the COVID scheme. But Temasek made good profits from the bail-out and private investors could participate and I sit on 20% profit from that scheme (although it was a very small investment from my side). Same way Emirates profits significantly fund the Dubai government.
So while these sovereign wealth funds (and the Chinese ones are among the biggest) can act as powerful investors and act accordingly, they are still expected to support national development and if things go wrong, answer to the government. Example is questions in parliament when Temasek had to write off US$275M in FTX relating to insufficient due dilligence.
So is funding COMAC subsidy or investment? I am pretty sure that from a Chinese perspective, it is investment in the future.
NiB:
We are getting off track on tarriffs but a few points to think about.
So something to think about, COMAC 929 (and 919) have a lot of US systems. So how much tariff do you get on a 929?
Responsible to a non responsive government is a license to steal (corruption etc).
Clearly COMAC is a Chinese government project with the thought you can invest and succeed (well it works in some industries and not others, best in high labor cost goods aka ship building and or high volume and fast advance (computers)
When the cost of buying a new TV or VCR was less than he could fix it, my brother got out of the business (and towards the end the schematics he needed to trouble shoot were changing every few months)
Norway is probably the poster child for done right but closed systems result in deals. No one knows what Emirates profit picture is as no one has seen the details.
“China and developing their commercial aircraft industry from scratch”
The ARJ21 is a DC-9 clone with US engines and Antonov wing redesign
That isnt ‘from scratch’
The C919 is an A320 clone, the wing maker even does new A320 wings in the same plant ( originally supposed to carbon fibre )and the engines are Leaps plus all the other sub systems from western suppliers
The larger scale airlifter Y-20 is an Il-76 design , lightly modernised. Still has the same old style soviet double fold petal rear door/ramps !
Thats not from scratch either
Lol. Depends if such “components” are bought off the shelf or developed and made locally. For those who only repeat materials you have no understanding, you’ll be surprised!!
Duke:
How do you tariff clones?
That said, don’t forget the C919 also had MD heritage.
@Duke! The Y20 is not and IL-76 clone but an enlarged jet powered derivative of the turboprop Antonov 70 that only got as far as flying test articles when the Germans decided to stay with the A400M airlifter. Antonov presented this modification as the Antonov 188 at a few air shows some years back.
So much disinformation sprouted out:
1. “Development of the ARJ21 began in March 2002, led by the state-owned ACAC consortium. The first prototype was rolled out on 21 December 2007, and made its maiden flight on 28 November 2008 from Shanghai.”
2. Comac is established in May 2008.
3. “I randomly came across COMAC’s financials and was at first surprised at how low the cumulative net loss figures were: ¥16.5B (~$2B) from 2008-22. I had previously heard a whopping $72B (!) was invested in the C919 program. After digging into it, the $72B is off by 6-14x.”
https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1767770559599743063
4. “I was able to source the $72B figure to this 2020 report from @KennedyCSIS @CSIS : “COMAC: An Aerospace Minor Leaguer” The analysis aggregated financing COMAC had received through 2016 and extrapolated* it forward to arrive at that large $72B figure 👇”
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIhh9zkXsAA4Hgo?format=jpg&name=large
5. “But when I dug in, I found a material analytical error. The bulk of the ¥328.5B ($49B) of aggregate financing identified came from a single credit line.” /1
“According to the linked article, ¥238B of the financing was attributable to this credit line. Notably, the linked article explains that only ¥5B* has been drawn, ~2% of the total. In its analysis, the report incorrectly assumed the entire, massive credit line was drawn.” /2
“Further, just because funds are raised/drawn, does not mean that it has all been spent. However, the report not only assumes it has all been spent through 2016 — including the entire undrawn portion of the credit line — it then further compounds the mistake by extrapolating 👇” /3
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIhh-v7XkAAVqXn?format=jpg&name=large
“In any case, this all leads to a wildly over-estimated number that is off by an order of magnitude.
COMAC was absolutely not using cash even close to those estimated burn rates.”
At the end, that’s how these bad analyses built on top of each other! A blind following another blind down the dead end alley.
The best phrasing I have seen is, if you have no enforcement mechanism all your rules are bunk.
WTO is a joke that supplies employment to people that can’t earn a living.
While I agree with the stupidity on non targets tariffs, the reality is as Presidents, Trump can do anything he wants and the WTO cannot do anything about it.
Other countries can also do what they feel is in their interest.
The loosers are people trying to live their lives.
Lol by design the US doesn’t want any enforcement mechanism since it lost almost 90% of the cases brought against it!
Yep, 9/11 before there was 9/11
I guess we should have tariffed the Japanese torpedoes and bombs.
Its a lesson in arrogance. They knew it was coming and the book “At Dawn They6 Slept” had more behind the tittle than people snoozing. You could have called it, At Dawn, Admirals and Generals were clueless.
Those who forget their history are doomed to repeat it.
We will have another one. Possibly on the Tarriffed ones watch.
But, keep in mind the laws of unintended consequence.
Not only did Japan doom itself, it freed Europe (you are welcome once again)
That is pretty funny.
Keep in mind that anything goes Tariff wise under Trump, he follows no rules. Any court cases resulting from the tariff violation then come down to who appoints the judges? Yea, LOL.
Now I know little about the European legal systems, but if you watch the US, a Judge can turn legality into a pretzel of insane illogic. In theory that gets fixed as you go up but no longer true.
The WTO is a European entity using rules that are intended to be circumvented.
The US could do what others do and that is use the bureaucracy to impede imports. Or not enforce IP etc. It was not the US way but then it looks like we can change!
Now we have a dishonest person heading to the helm and then we are just like the rest of the world!
Frankly you can jump up and down all you want, the reality is everyone tries to cheat. Now the US is just joining the world order.
You should note that while the Diesel Violations that took place in Europe were intended to get around US specs, the holes in the system in Europe were designed to let the mfgs not have to.
The US was performance based not a billion lines of regulations you turned lawyers loose on. And like the US Diesel cheaters, they got caught (keeping in mind Volvo was one of the US Cheaters).
But now we don’t have to follow our own rules!
And then it comes down to Jan 6th or not?
😳😃😂😂
“Both the EU and USTR representatives decided (after years of avoiding the issue) that the WTO should examine China’s state subsidies to the state-owned COMAC. COMAC developed the C919, which competes with the A320 and the 737”
The enemy of my enemy is my friend…………………..LOL…………….China will state its RLA………………………LOL.
The EU will not go down that WTO China commercial aircraft subsidy rabbit hole, the EU takes a holistic approach for their economy working with China
Yes, German/Japanese car manufacturers thought them how to design and build cars at the same time doing the same for high speed trains, then China become a competetor worldwide. If the US imposes the tarriffs it will drive inflation in the US and the targeted countries will tagert US products and services imports. The EU/Asian products and raw materials will bypass the US and go to fast growing countries. If you are not superrich in the US you will feel the inflation pain from 2025, Boeing will be squeezed and US airliners Airbus A321neo order backlog will quickly find other buyers that wait for deliveries. Trump sounds like the elephant in the glassware store, but maybe just talk and agreements will follow. We’ll see 2025.
China will enjoy making a point of the huge subsidies handed out by Uncle Sam under the Inflation Reduction Act and Chips Act.
And also the $98B received by BA since 1991 in the form of state and federal subsidies, loans and tax breaks.
“Those who live in glass houses…”
don’t forget about the composite technology transfer for the 7E7 (787) from the B2 program!
David P — A lot of the B2 composite tech was ‘ redone-retested ‘ as part of the 777 program- wuz there then and wuz on both programs
Pretty sure Airbus’s Commercial and Defense Division talk to each other…
No? May I interest you in this mildly used bridge…………………..
The so called rule-based international order:
“One set of rules for me, another set of rules for others…”
Wow $90 billion subsidies and loans received by BA!
As noted the WTO is a toothless joke.
This may be just a negotiating tactic (of course it is). Whether or not the tariffs are enacted is exactly what the Trump administration wants the competing economies to question too. “Now that I have your attention……..”
everyone is ready…”“Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me,”
I’d even go as far as to say that certain other countries are actually looking forward to a duel: it’s like a spring that’s been progressively wound up further and further, and now it’s time for a release…
In a world that the US accounts for only 16% manufacturing value of the globe, many here forget the “superpower” is no more than an isolated island behind the tariff wall. The world is changing!
20% of the US gdp comes from finance, insurances (rip UNH) and real estate that create little real value to the society.
Here’s a better one for you:
70% of the US economy comes from domestic consumption.
What will happen when those consumers have to pay more for their goods / services — due to import tariffs and/or export bans imposed by other countries? Bear in mind that the US consumer is already carrying a record personal debt burden.
People in the know are in panic, they know what’s coming. OTOH people in the dark have no idea. I believe the reality will be more apparent in say 18 to 24 mths. It won’t be fun for certain industries or companies.
I don’t think that tarrifs have to be imposed symmetrically between two parties. For instance, when the US put tariffs on UK steel, UK put tariffs on bourbon and Levi jeans. A UK tariff on steel wouldn’t have hurt the US very much, whereas a tariff on bourbon and denim would have done much more damage.
An interesting asymmetric tariff would be the first freedom of the air; the right or privilige to fly across another state’s territory without landing. If Canada revoked that right to the US it would imperil US flights to the whole of Europe. The reciprocal sanction from the US would hurt the Canadians much less.
Now if Canada AND Mexico imposed a first freedom restriction on the US airlines (disrupting service to Europoe, Central and South America), then that would hurt the US a great deal at relatively little cost to either of them.
So rather than hurt each other (symmetrically), it would be better to hit (asymmetrically) the US twice, first by the effects of its own tariff (Mexican avocadoes and Canadian wood cost more and contribute to inflation) plus the retaliatory sanction to en-route air services would hurt the US a great deal more than either Canada or Mexico. Other exports from the US could be left alone and no inflationary impact would be felt in Canada or Mexico.
Does this get me an FBI file?
Chris lee said ” Does this get me an FBI file?”- suggest you do NOT dare jaywalk before next year. Unless you are looking forward to hearing a 2 AM bull horn in your front yard giving you 3 minutes to” come out with your 1040 high in the air” and ” do NOT ignore the Cobra gunship hovering overhead.”
To phrase Scott, rabbit holes.
Its all speculation because for all the bombasty, the image Trump projects is a wheeler dealer (failed one but there you go)
So big splash and then??????????
Excellent article by Scott-Does a great job of background, and significant events in aerospace/aviation history regarding ‘ WTO’ issues. A side note on the ‘tariff-duties ‘ issue.. In 2000- 2001 a small group at SPEEA spent almost a year putting together a formal petition ( Without Boeing help ) to the Commerce dept re Airbus subsidy games. The technical name for such a petition was/is ” Countervailing Duties ” aka CVD. Many comparisons were made re labor ( back to 1985 ) costs, production costs, ‘ sales’, deliveries, model comparisons, etc. A lot from AECMA stats and public data from Boeing and Airbus. A parametric analysis of ‘ discounts’ was made for A319, 320,321,300 330, and 340 aircraft models and deliveries . The so called ‘ discount ‘ from ” list ” for single isle planes re year 2000 and total 311 deliveries of all models varied between 17 to 25 Perecent.
SPEEA Council agreed to file the petition in August 2001. Matter of fact the schedule date was the 2nd week of Sept. Then came 911. So all came to a halt.
By Jan 2002, Boeing sent a then new ( 8 months) employee – ex pentagon type ( ex Deputy Sec Defense) Rudy deLeon to SPEEA to push for 767 tankers and to hold off on filing the petition. – and the rest is history ! Wuz there -did most of the data analysis. A few years later ( approx 2004 ) Boeing did file similar.
let’s go down the commercial aircraft subsidy lane
Highlights of the 17-year Airbus, Boeing trade war
https://www.reuters.com/world/highlights-17-year-airbus-boeing-trade-war-2021-06-15/
everyone subsidizes their large commercial aircraft industry….EU, US, Canada, Brazil and China…its time to let go of the past and look to the future on who will make innovations for the industry to build a better aircraft
Cute, it goes back longer than 17 years. This should have been dealt with in the early 1990s. Google has a dearth of media articles from that time, but some of us here were around during that time and remember.
Forgetting an inconvenient past leads to the same problems in the future.
oh yes how the Boeing 747 origins came from a military aircraft cargo development program that Boeing lost
Oh goodness you just have to go there.
I really get tired of the sophism of that, sad.
Ok, bottom line is hundreds and B-47, B-52 and C-5A were ordered and DELIVERED. Are you seeing the picture Vern?
What stopped Europe from designing the B-47? B-52? C-5/747?
No, Europe went with a niche product (Concorde) that was never going to sell in numbers or be a commercial success (who paid for that by the way?)
Bottom line is Boeing put its money into a competition and lost and then did the 747 because they had an eye on a different market (the C-5 is a classic low ground transport and the 747 was anything but, or course they were going to loose)
Just because someone benefit off a military program they build product for that fills a requirement (you can argue how valid all of it is till the cows come home) that is NOT A SUBSIDY.
The A350 is a direct decedent of the A400. Oh wow, the Humanity!
In the meantime we got 220 C-17s. Hmmm, pushing a 100 KC-46A (which deployed a squadron overseas)
How many A330MRTs are there? Oh the Humanity, Airbus that got Free Lunch Money used it to compete a military tanker.
“The A350 is a direct decedent of the A400.”
Wow. 🤭
The A400 is a four-engine turboprop military transport. What’s next?? 😳
You are going to have to look up “The Graduate” to get this.
I got one word for you, Composites!
ps: the engines are made by other than an aircraft mfg.
@TW
It’s beyond me how meaning of the word is twisted beyond recognition.
Well if you are a tech guy like I was, not a problem.
Now I have a leg up, I grew up with those WWII vets and what they stood for. They did talk some (not the personal stuff) and that got me into history.
I chewed through history books like they were candy and still am.
I worked labor for a lot of years then went down the tech/mechanic path. I was good at it.
It all gives one an foundation you can assess things off from if you can get enough information.
Often for industry, the info comes out years latter.
But you watch what is being done, not what is spun, and actions speak volumes.
That is why we can laugh at the Tariff clown, he is so far over his head as to make the most unfortuane street person a genius.
Human is a “direct decedent” of frog is closer to the truth than your claim related to the A350 and A400. 😂
If that works for you, cool
> What stopped Europe from designing the B-47? B-52?
For what? To bomb N or Central America??
The UK designed the V Bombers.
In the attempt to “Make America Great Again” is not achievable by threatening the outside Trading Partners with Tariffs/Sanctions/etc, etc. Honest Diplomacy negotiation with respect(not bullying) much better results can be obtained than the “Cowboy Way”. America is in a Political/Economical free fall decline following the multiple current Admin. Fiasco’s with their never-ending Warmongering actions/spendings. This has to STOP, and a Peaceful Trading ambiance should be the priority of the next Admin. In all aspects of Trading and Politics.
your right….
but the Make Tariffs Great Again guy “President-elect Donald Trump has picked his former trade adviser, Peter Navarro, to join his next administration as his “Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing.”
“Their main link is a shared interest in fierce economic nationalism, protectionist views on trade and outright paranoia about China.”
But I don’t see it happening in the next 4 years
in other parts of the global economy
EU tries to get closer to South America with trade deal
“The European Union has signed a trade deal with four of South America’s biggest economies.”
“This deal is set to grow exports of goods including cars, machinery, chemicals and pharmaceuticals at a time when trade tensions are growing with other parts of the world, the US and China in particular.
Nearly $57bn worth of goods went the other way last year with minerals such as lithium and nickel as well as meat and vegetables among the biggest sellers.”
There is that mineral export again “lithium and nickel”
Bolivia was one of the 4 countries concerned…and it has the largest lithium reserves in the world.
good info…seems like China (port development and railways) and the EU (increase trade) has their South American trade strategies already developed and implemented
So Peter and Don will slap 100% tariffs on South American countries because they are working with China and EU! And Bolivia response to the US…no lithium for you!
@Norm:
Well we have seen how diplomacy works in Europe have we not?
WWI, WWII, Balkans, Ukraine.
Not that Mr. Tariff is going to change anything, but a good kick is not always the wrong thing.
The Post WWII norms in regards to the US are probably permanently broken.
Co dependency is not a good thing for either party. The tragedy is people wind up dying when things get broke.
American imperialism at its finest…I am going to stock on popcorn and watch how it will unfold.
What will be the next C-series type consequence?
A JV between COMAC and Embraer would be a fun development…
you never know…back to the future ERJ 145 at Harbin China..”For 13 years, Embraer produced some of its ERJ145s in China. This was the result of a joint venture with the Harbin Aircraft Industry Group (HAIG)” “only 40 produced”
Wrong product for the market?
yes…no real national government backing more or less an FAL site with some low end composite work
How many erj135/145 were sold in Asia? I don’t think 50-seat RJ was a big seller in that region in 2000s. More an aircraft to skirt under the scope clause in the US??
“For 13 years, Embraer produced some of its ERJ145s in China”
It was a sham deal , just like a similar one with Dougals for the DC-9
It was an technology transfer primarily- as China does , production was the last thing their mind.
The DC-9 with a new wing ( Antonov technology) and engines ( CF-34-10, actually a downsized CFM56 architecture)
CBL:
The US has not claimed any territory since Hawaii?
We bought Alaska, of course Russia had the right to sell it!
I guess we could claim the South China Sea?
FYI
Why the US went to the Pacific for 105 atmospheric and underwater nuclear tests in the Marshall Islands and harmed the residents there? Why not near Hawaii since they “claimed” it.
Oh man, that is so non tariff and 50s like.
Same reason France did their Kabooms in Tahiti.
But who did not have their colonialism periods? Spain? Germany? France? Belgium?
Finally you admit the US is no different than those colonial powers from the old continent!!
When I see a bird that walks like a duck and swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, I call that bird a duck.
The Great Vampire Squid:
1. Look up Foreign Direct Product ruling
2. United States Extraterritoriality: European Union sovereignty at stake
https://www.ibanet.org/article/CF85E59E-6564-4AA3-9408-3F47C6449C9D
3. 👇👇😅
“Trump says Mexico and Canada should be made states if they are going to continue being subsidized by the U.S.”
https://x.com/RealVanJackson/status/1865850358125469755
Guantanamo Bay.
Guam, Phillipines, Puerto Rico were taken from Spain by conquest ( money changed hands but its was an offer Spain couldnt refuse
Samoa, the eastern part
Panama Canal Zone plus many small areas around the entrances plus along side the canal over the years
Danish Virgin Islands
Kingman reef between Hawaii and Samoa in a china SCS style takeover
Baker Is in pacific along with some more atolls
Panama Canal Zone returned
@Duke:
I am not going to disagree.
The US pushed all the way across the continental US and save for some bad planning, we would own Canada as well.
The point is Europe has its own sordid history. So pointing fingers is not a good idea.
None of us had anything to do with those actions. I acknowledge fully ours.
Something to ponder, who would have stepped into the Vacuums if not the US?
As a very wise Native American said, its in the past, its done, what we need to do is fix it going forward.
I have done my best, I control very little other than a small bubble of respect for others as I move through life.
Thanks for this extended article on tariffs- much to digest.
I guess the Canada’s trade group will be visiting Mar A Logo for trade talks since
“Any U.S Citizen or permanent resident that has a felony conviction (Peter and Don) on their criminal record may be deemed inadmissible to Canada for the purposes of immigrating, or even if they’re merely coming to Canada to visit.”
Maybe Peter N needs to stay in the US for his trade negotiations
“Chinese immigration authorities conduct character assessments on all visa applicants. This assessment includes evaluating an individual’s criminal history, including felony convictions. Even minor offenses can cause concern and may result in visa denial.”
nope, they just won’t let him in (well its all that government stuff and that is different)
But it is true, I had a friend trying to drive though Canada who had a passenger with a DWI. They got turned back at the border.
Me? I had my Registration and insurance all ready. Sadly they just let me through. What were they thinking? Skuzzy looking guy on a cycle (granted I have gotten poured on with rain then 85 deg heat for 250 miles.
“Today, Boeing has 144 7-Series aircraft ordered by China, mostly 737s, that remain undelivered.”
From BA’s latest SEC 10Q:
“As of September 30, 2024, we had approximately 60 737-8 aircraft in inventory that were produced prior to 2023, including approximately 45 aircraft for customers in China.”
======================
@Scott
What’s the impact of tariffs on BA’s supply chain?
Mitsubishi HI, FHI (Subaru) & Kawasaki are major contractors of 777, 777X & 787
CfFM engine has parts from Safran
Leonardo is also a major BA supplier
Does not matter. Trump can declare all that stuff exempt and 10 years latter there may be a court ruling.
for the sake of variety…Seattle Times
Boeing pauses surveillance plan to track employees at the office
“Hours after The Seattle Times asked Boeing about a program to install digital surveillance sensors in its Everett offices, the company said it has “paused our pilot program at all locations and will keep employees updated.”
Boeing began Monday installing “workplace occupancy sensors” in the main Everett office towers that use motion detectors and cameras mounted in ceiling tiles above workstations, conference rooms and common areas.”
But who will watch the watchers ? Motion detectors are one thing- been used for decades. But cameras ? Nope- no way jose – And they already have well honed computer- cell phone tracking.
Sounds like the ‘ sales ‘ team who sold the ‘ sensors’ and concept to BA is working up to the Big con- selling a share of the hood canal bridge in cold storage along with galloping gertie- with the brooklyn bridge as a freebie.
wonder if any employees in the Everett offices are SPEEA? If so, wouldn’t this be negotiated item in their contract? If not, what stops Boeing from putting surveillance plans on the Everett factory floor…and Renton.
Must be part of Ortberg’s plans for “fundamental culture change” within the organization?
Uhh dave – probably at least 30 percent of SPEEA members ( tech and prof ) are located in everett. I doubt there is a contract issue. First amendment rights and a few other rights are parked at the gate.
maybe ….but “Your employer must negotiate with you as unionized workers about wages, benefits and working conditions”
from another article on the topic
“In Germany and Austria, an employer would need to negotiate the introduction of such a system with employees, who would have a right to audit how the employer uses the data.”
“… such a system …”
a lot of such overreaching surveillance stuff is just plain “Verboten” here.
Tesla in Brandenburg had some “run ins” with workforce and state. US managers tend to be tone deaf in that domain.
Ahh well, all things anti Boeing
Its becoming a standard thing in the US. It may be nuts but it started with GPS tracking truck drivers and it goes from there.
Having seen my share of company vans parked in odd places over the years, well, there is justification for it.
Does the negative impact any benefit. Well we are just peasants so we don’t get any say.
It would not be Leeham comment section if there weren’t.
Now that is profound!
“FAA boss Whitaker on @NBCNews : Boeing failed, but is rebuilding in a “safer manner” Full interview airs tonight on ‘NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt’ at 6:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. CT”
https://x.com/dominicgates/status/1865108423773425864
“Boeing’s Whistleblowers | Sunday on 60 Minutes
https://cbsnews.com/video/boeing-whistleblowers-sunday-on-60-minutes/…
(https://t.co/VME73JkhmW)
via @CBSNews
https://x.com/dominicgates/status/1865111283122737619
Reuters:
“The thing that I was most struck by was we’re four weeks post-strike and they’re still not producing airplanes, because they’re focused on their workforce, the training, making sure they have the supply chain sorted out,” Whitaker told Reuters in a wide-ranging interview. […]
“Whitaker said he expected to receive a proposed 737 MAX engine de-icing fix as soon as later this month that has been holding up certification of the MAX 7. “We have done everything we can on our side awaiting that solution on the de-icing” Whitaker said. “That solution has to go into the current production line and then has to be part of the certification (application).” […]
“He wants Boeing to adopt an effective Safety Management System, which are a set of policies and procedures to proactively identify and address potential operational hazards. “We haven’t seen evidence of it working the way it’s supposed to work, where your risk assessment is driving your behavior,” Whitaker said. The National Transportation Safety Board has also said Boeing’s SMS failed to catch problems years earlier. […]
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2024-12-05/faa-administrator-says-boeing-still-not-producing-max-planes-after-strike
That 737 MAX de-icing situation is one I’ll watch with real interest. I recall Mister Calhoun saying the fix would be complete in 9-12 months- a
couple of years ago.
What an outfit..
The MAX 7 to be certified by Q1 2025?
Nah..
😉
Reuters:
“The thing that I was most struck by was we’re four weeks post-strike and they’re still not producing airplanes, because they’re focused on their workforce, the training, making sure they have the supply chain sorted out,” Whitaker told Reuters in a wide-ranging interview. […]
—————————————
If that is true…it’s not a bad thing.
Start doing it right, from the get-go. It will probably cost some money up front, but will pay off in the long run, if it reduces travelled work and brings employees together.
If that’s what’s really going on, then it will take many months and a hell of a lot of money.
De-motivated, ex-KFC employee in October transforms into accomplished aircraft machinist in December?
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Regardless of your position on who is working at BA and what their state of mind is…
…this is the right way, to go about things. For once.
Boeing’s fighter chief is retiring after 15 years with the company
Boeing fighter chief, Steve Nordlund, retiring
https://t.co/7EWTHuMAuh
Trump Administration Set to Decide Future of Jet Fighters
“Some of the president-elect’s allies, including Elon Musk, are pushing for unmanned aircraft rather than piloted fighters”
from another article
Pakistan Approves J-35 Deal: How China’s fighter jet differs from America’s F-35, can it increase India’s tensions?
“As per several sources, Pakistani pilots are already undergoing training in China to familiarize themselves with the advanced systems and operational features of the fighter jet.”
video J35 https://youtu.be/gwazRvtT300
“China will be the only other country than the US with 2 stealth fighters”
Does the US wants to have Elon influence its long term stealth fighter capability?
just fyi
Aircraft Touches Down on China’s Fujian Supercarrier
video https://youtu.be/XhHRki5srdg
But don’t worry a former Fox News Host and Elon will find a “cheap and cheerful” budget friendly solution
Bottom line on Tarriffs, until it happens we won’t know and then as Scott pointed out, there are the rules.
Not that Trump follows the rules so if he wants he can declare any A350 sold into the US has a 100% tax.
Then it goes to court.
My advice is get your popcorn, drink of choice (Tarrifed Scotch maybe) and watch the clown show.
Oh, and Boeing continues to sell MAX aircraft, so someone thinks they will get them sooner or latter
Nov 15
“GE9X S/N 610108 was removed from WH001 777-9 N779XW. The engine will be moved to the 45-12 Building, left and right thrust links will be removed and replaced with new instrumented (16 strain gauges) thrust links. The engine will be reinstalled next week.”
http://paineairport.com/kpae401115.htm
Overheard that a majority of SpaceX’s current Starlink constellation have to be deorbited by 2028. Talk about cashflow without context can be misleading.
“NASA on Thursday postponed a mission to send four astronauts around the moon and back to Earth until April 2026. It’s the latest setback for Artemis, the government space agency’s return-to-the-moon program, which has already faced years of delays.”
https://bsky.app/profile/nytimes.com/post/3lclqseym3c2w
Notice to Everyone: Some of these comment have zero to do with the post. Knock it off, or I will close comments by Monday.
Hamilton
Darn, I was hoping to add in some comments about submarines and the pandemic. I know you really appreciate hearing about those things.
On a somber side note:
Given your previous article on books to read, today is December 7.
For those of us who bother to follow history, I’m sure we know the significance of that date. I believe it is time to roll out my copy of “Tora, Tora, Tora” and give it a watch.
To all those, who made the ultimate sacrifice.
Frank P:
I was more inclined to “At Dawn They Slept.” It had a much wider overview.
And I was looking forward to all those negative Boeing news links seen in my news feed copied and pasted here…………..Dog gone it.
Now back to watching the ACC Championship Game.
Oh sure, there is nothing wrong at Boeing or Intel. US industry is in great shape… 🙄
Sing a thousand times
You have peace in mind
Dance a thousand times
You have good-sleep tonight 😁
So, here’s an on-topic post, per Mr. Hamilton’s warning.
What happens if/when Trump slams a blanket tariff on all imports of Airbus aircraft, and the airlines affected can’t arrange an exemption?
Of course, the EU will immediately put a similar tariff on all imports of Boeing planes.
The number of affected airlines in Europe would be relatively small — Ryanair would basically be the only one to feel any real pain (LH and KL have small numbers of widebodies trickling in, in mixed fleets).
The effect in the US would be more dramatic, since all the big carriers except Southwest and Alaska have significant numbers of A320s/A321s on order, and Delta has dozens of A330s/A350s on order, as well as lots of A220s.
So, do we gets lots of order deferrals until the tariffs are lifted?
Do we get outright cancellations? A huge portion of the BA order book can be cancelled without penalty at this stage.
Do we get airlines jumping ship, e.g. Ryanair finally defecting to Airbus?
There are increasing numbers of distressed airlines / profit warnings of late, so deferrals/cancellations would suit quite a few airlines.
Defection is, of course, what the MAGA doctrine wants: Trump wants US carriers flying US planes — “Proudly all-Boeing”.
You made a good point about deferral of aircraft from Airbus (e.g. A350) Delta (13 in backlog) could keep updating their interiors “Delta Air Lines has plans to retrofit some of its more outdated wide body jets, though the exact details of what will be changing remains to be seen.”
So what happens to those delayed A350….maybe Sir Tim would like to accelerate his deliveries of 65 (now 64) A350s. Airbus has about 650 A350 orders in backlog outside the US.
As for A220 delay, it would temporary slow down Mobile (jet blue and delta have about 70 aircraft on order) but A220 have about 450 in backlog without jet blue and delta) So produce in Mobile and deliver to overseas customers If not already, Airbus can set themselves as FTZ foreign trade zone (e.g. foreign duty free zone) and get around Make Tariff Great Again guy’s 25% duty for goods from Canada and any possible duties on EU subassemblies
Don’t forget the A320/A321. Although there is a FAL in Mobile, AL, the shipsets for that FAL arrive at Mobile port from Hamburg, and would thus be subject to tariffs — not sure Trump would allow your FTZ idea.
But airlines like Air India, Qatar and Riyadh would jump at the opportunity to receive any A321 frames re-directed from US carriers.
Further: tariffs on top of delays might finally push LH to dump the 777X order and jump to the A350 instead.
Dito as regards 787 orders at a handful of EU carriers.
in a way they are
Doubling Down: SWISS To Take 5 More Airbus A350-900s Bringing Total To 10
“SWISS International Airlines has announced that it will be adding a further five Airbus A350-900s to its fleet, complementing the existing five that it initially committed to. This is part of an overall Lufthansa Group order for the aircraft type.”
Indeed!
And AB received orders for a further 20 (!) widebodies from undisclosed customers in November — 15 A330neos and 5 A350-900s.
Who might they be for?
https://www.scramble.nl/civil-news/airbus-november-2024-orders-deliveries
Total orders to date for the A350 are now approaching 1400.
84 deliveried in November:
1xA221, 11xA223 1xA319neo, 22x A320neo, 43x A321neo
1xA339
4xA359, 1x A35K
@Pedro
Is that right?
1xA221, 11xA223
A dozen A220’s?
I know it’s the ‘end of year’ push, but 12!
That’s good.
@ Frank P
Here you go:
https://www.scramble.nl/civil-news/airbus-november-2024-orders-deliveries
@Abalone
Have I missed something?
‘the shipsets for that FAL arrive at Mobile port from Hamburg, and would thus be subject to tariffs ‘
Donnie said Canada, Mexico and China. Hamburg is EU.
Is he going to tariff the whole world? Does the EU need stronger borders to stop the flow of people and illegal stuff into the US, as well?
@ Frank
Although Donnie *most recently* referred to Canada, Mexico and China, he had already hoisted the battle flag as regards the EU:
“Europe Will Pay a ‘Big Price,’ Trump Warns on Tariffs”
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-10-29/europe-will-pay-a-big-price-trump-warns-on-tariffs
—
So, that’s the EU, BRICS, Canada and Mexico.
The list will probably grow.
The EU has already prepared a list of retaliatory tariffs, and will implement them “fast and hard” when Donnie kicks off the game.
He’ll also probably pull the plug on NATO, but the EU and Canada have already expected that for some time, and they’ll manage just fine in the new arrangement.
Even those new “interiors” may need imported components/RM
The supply chain is complex
Is there any analysis of the coming Trump tariffs on aerospace supply chain?
yes on your point on complex supply chain But if the Make Tariff Great Again guy invokes tariffs on subassemblies (like he did before) its a clear warning to other companies consider setting up shop in the US Probably 99% of them will have foreign content based on their global supply chains So with higher labor cost in the US, tariffs on foreign components, why bother setting up shop with higher costs so just add the tariffs to their current foreign produced products and pass it along to the customers
Nothing more than a repeat of what Scott wrote.
The Tariff rules will be broken, because its one area that is absolutely clearly in the Presidential hands, no one can do anything about it.
You can get down into the weeds all you want, none of it matters unless a Judge Stays a decision of that type. Then if its Judge Cannon, all bets are off (well and Judges in Texas).
If anyone thinks Trump acualy cares about rules, they are wrong.
Scott wrote it up as normal rules apply, but they do not. Nothing normal coming.
Trump will violate any and all of them. Then the legal stuff begins and all of this plays out with the FBI reverting to its Hoover past.
I am not guessing where it all goes, but normal and rules have been thrown out the window. Well more accurately will be.
Airbus is not interested in selling to Ryanair. Beside the fact that they don’t need their orders, they don’t want their terms.
Ryanair will be very interested in Airbus if/when it finds itself having to pay 25% more for its Boeing orders at the border.
A “standard discount” from AB will beat that hands down.
Or, O’Leary can just hold on to his old 737-800s and watch Wizz and EasyJet eating his lunch.
About Canada and Mexico:
“USMCA is one of the world’s largest free trade zones, with a population of more than 510 million people and an economy of $30.997 trillion in nominal GDP — nearly 30 percent of the global economy.
All sides came to a formal agreement on October 1, 2018, and U.S. President Donald Trump proposed USMCA during the G20 Summit the following month, where it was signed by him, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. A revised version reflecting additional consultations was signed on December 10, 2019, and ratified by all three countries, with Canada being the last to ratify on March 13, 2020. Following notification by all three governments that the provisions were ready for domestic implementation, the agreement came into effect on July 1, 2020.
During his 2016 election campaign and presidency, Trump was highly critical of NAFTA (oftentimes describing it as “perhaps the worst trade deal ever made”) while extolling USMCA as “a terrific deal for all of us”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States%E2%80%93Mexico%E2%80%93Canada_Agreement
————————————————
2020 – I got us a terrific deal, I’m so great
2024 – Tariffs for everyone
Too bad nobody pays attention anymore. I guess they’ll find out.
One can always invoke “national security” to circumvent inconvenient treaties.
Already happening as regards the alleged military threat from China. Next up: “drugs pouring across our borders”
While the subject is Tariffs , those rules to will be voided.
The Supreme Court has given Trump a get out of jail free card.
People do and have paid attention, not enough but you see Trudeau making his pilgrimage to Florida to try to stop the carnage.
Treaties are not worth the paper they are written on. Like Tarriffs, they can be torn up, you gots no enforcement mechanism.
The US is far from the first nor will be the last that tears up things as they choose. You should read more history before you get on a high horse.
People need to get their heads out of the past and accept there is a sea change occurring. The US norms since WWII are no more – and it does not matter what administration is in the White House.
The electorate has seen what the norms have done to their lives. So, it may be a knee jerk, but going forward any party has to take that into account.
So Tariffs, rules, violation of same is going to be a ever changing landscape and the norm.
What one person does allows someone else to do the same or in Biden case, he left tariffs in place. Vastly easier to just not change something that has been changed. Nothing to see here. Your tax increase was just made permanent.
As my mom would say, stay tuned because none of us can predict the specifics.
Scott has a more than legitimate layout, but its from an industry standpoint and this has so much ore involved than aviation let alone any rules that get discarded.
How its supposed to go is not how its going to happen. Aviation is going to be caught up in all of it as well.
If someone does not care if they break things, then things are going to get broken.
Public opinion will be the only guideline, and that goes for the Legislative branch not just the executive.
If anyone thinks there is a norm anymore, you just look at nominees that you would not want sweeping your streets and remarks like Well, We Will Just have to See.
Regarding the subsidies, I find it pointless to continue to bring up this question, as both Airbus and Boeing have benefited from state subsidies (like all aerospace companies in the world; the aerospace industry would never have been raised without state aid, since it requires enormous investments which can be recovered, if at all, only after many years).
Instead, I find it much more useful to reflect on the fact that the subsidies provided to Airbus (mainly in the form of direct funding conditional on the development of new aircraft) have proven over time to be more effective than the (mainly indirect) aid provided to Boeing in the form of tax breaks and military and NASA contracts.
While direct aid pushed Airbus on the path of innovation (through the launch of new aircraft programs), Boeing was receiving aid regardless of how it was used (launching programs for new aircraft, developing derivatives or returning cash to shareholders).
Perhaps it is time to rethink how U.S. aerospace industry should be supported.
Airbus…repayable launch aid (e.g. subsidy) is paid back per aircraft delivered Boeing tax breaks (subsidy) do not have to be paid back…there is a difference
Waiting for you Google whether the A300,A310,A340,A380 and heck, let’s throw the A400 in there too paid back their launch aid. I am going go out on the limb and state no.
David P has taken the spin from Airbus.
williams is spot on.
The A320 did, but that was luck of the draw. Maybe the A330.
Because the numbers required to get payments going back are secret. So you don’t know and we can only guess.
What is the A350 payback number? Best guesses for the A380 were 750.
Airbus is now smarter, the bigger the number the less likely they have to pay anything back.
A300 and A310 are out of scope : too early.
A400 is out of scope : military procurement. ( And don’t bring up the cheap C17 at 300+% over budget. 🙂
A340, A330 are one package. RLI was paydirt for the investors.
A320 family the same.
A350 seems to follow the existing track.
You think the Tariff Myster cares?
What are the numbers?
If you don’t have facts then its an opinion.
The fact is, those numbers are closely held secret for good reason.
Of course one response is to just add 100% Tariff, that takes care of the numbers.
Of course that goes both ways.
Dave and the posters below:
Again the argument over subsidies is based on misrepresentation.
and thus faulty. ( OK nothing new from select outlets )
Airbus aid for their initial years happened long before the US started to throw their weight around to terminate Airbus aid while continuing Tax gifts and such for Boeing.
The status pre was “each side has their own way of subsidizing that are overall equivalent and about matched.”
( with the unpleasant difference that Airbus was construcive with aid while Boeing just absorbed TaxGifts … to buy back ..)
Then RLI stands for “Reimbursable Launch Investment”
timed payback _and_ continued participation in success.
As in real life not every investment is a success.
BUT overall the RLI instrument has been successful and keeps on giving. ( The sole reason why the US tries to squash it. totally bad example 🙂
@enrigh
I was serious when I stated Boeing should take a 30 Billion RLA wipe out the 787 program accounting.
Unfortunately BA’s buddy in the government got its CEO & CFO fired!
Willimas is correct, or declare bankruptcy and clean the books that way.
Maybe they need to loose another 20 or 30 billion before they do, like a new aircraft and then pull the plug on the share holders and the ones they owe the money to.
Lol. Voters vs tariffs
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gd6Jqfva8AAyVGi?format=png&name=900×900
Voters are surprised when the leopards at the Leopard Face-Eating Party, start eating their faces.
Who knew?
Yea pretty well put.
Dang, you can vote and make it worse!
Love them tariffs, until your costs go up and then??????????
while the US keeps complaining of EU aircraft subsidies (e.g. Airbus), China has a plan in place for developing their commercial aircraft industry and they seem to be on course to meet it
It will be in interesting to see what the Chinese 15th Five Year will have included Below are highlights and link from Chinese 14th Five Year Plan (2021-2025)
14th Five Year plan 2021-2025 for National Economic and Social Development and Vision of the People Republic of China
Part III Industrial Modernization and the Foundation of Real Economy
Chapter 8 Strengthening Manufacturing
IV Policy to support manufacturing cost reduction
Enhancing core competitive of manufacturing industry
02 promote the demonstration operation C919 large passenger aircraft and ARJ regional passenger aircraft series
04 Aero engines and gas turbine-development CJ1000 civilian use high bypass turbofan engines. Make breakthrough in the technology of wide body aircraft engines and realize the industrial manufacturing of advance civil turboshaft engines
https://www.fujian.gov.cn/english/news/202108/t20210809_5665713.htm#C8
Remember the saying, “you tend to do what you plan to do”
The CJ-1000A turbofan is key.
Once they have that up and running, they’ll be a serious force to be reckoned with.
I have one word for you
Tarriffs
Trans…
actually two words Tariffs and Sanctions
… which will lead to a sanitary corridor erected around the US.
( in Mexico’s case I’d teleport migrants from the southern border to the US border. )
@ DP
It looks as if certain other commenters here still think that COMAC needs to sell into the US market in order to be successful 🙈
Remember those links that you posted a few months ago about the increasingly affluent middle class in Asia, Africa and South America?
The US market is completely irrelevant to COMAC.
@Abalone
I heard tariffs would increase inflation, higher LT interest rate, hurt US manufacturers (higher wages/imported input etc) but still posters think it’ll MAGA? FAFO.
Export control of materials would make US tech manufacturers suffer.
We’ll see if US depends on its supplies more or suppliers depend on the US market more.
@ Pedro
This sums it up:
“Commentary: Americans want to return to a place that no longer exists”
“Trump is focused on a declining part of the US economy that constitutes just 10% of GDP while ignoring most of the other 90%. To get what he wants — more manufacturing jobs — Trump will have to persuade investors to start or expand businesses employing manual laborers when the real money is in more efficient, highly automated factories that help business owners offset the generally higher costs of operating in the United States. Nobody wants to own or invest in a business that’s less efficient and more labor-intensive than it needs to be. It’s hard to see how Trump will coax anybody to invest in a 50-year-old business model.”
“Voters elected Trump to a second term for a number of reasons, including simply acknowledging the plight of some Americans who are falling behind and don’t see a way out. Going back won’t solve their problems, however. The winners are the ones who can adapt to the future, and that’s not something Trump is offering.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/commentary-americans-want-to-return-to-a-place-that-no-longer-exists-215606673.html
Abalone
yes even Boeing agrees with their “forecasts” From Nov 2023
“Boeing says Southeast Asia’s commercial airplane fleet will nearly quadruple to more than 4,000 jets by 2042, becoming one of the global leaders in air traffic and fleet growth. As low-cost carriers (LCCs) become the dominant business model and expand networks across the vast region, Southeast Asia will be the world’s fastest-growing single-aisle airplane market through the 20-year forecast period.”
single aisle 3,390 and widebody 770 but surprisingly only 20 freighters I am sure Airbus will deliver more than 20 A350 freighters to Southeast Asia in 20 years.
@ DP
Agreed as regards freighters.
Though perhaps the market will be predominantly interested in P2F offerings.
I don’t have to be an insider or spoken with #47 to know this 👇
Ortberg says tariffing by #47 is going to be “detrimental”.
Put the tariffs to good use: blame them for (inevitable) new delays in cert of the MAX-7, MAX-10 and 777X 🤭
As we’ve seen many times, BA is very adept at blaming someone/something else for its woes…
“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.”
― Rahm Emanuel
“Trump’s Tariff Plan Would Undercut The Entire US Economy”
“Could tariffs replace taxes? Yes, money flows into the Treasury and at one point much earlier in our history, the country’s income came from tariffs. As much as Trump wants to claim that other countries pay tariffs, they don’t unless they would suddenly give importers a big break in price, and they wouldn’t be inclined to cut their profits for the sake of this country. Just as Mexico never paid for the wall, China is not going to underwrite the cost of everything in Walmart.
“As Forbes contributor Andrew Leahey wrote a few days ago, the reason the U.S. moved away in the 1890s from tariffs as the way to raise money is everyone at every economic level in the country experienced how prices rose with tariffs. They were a regressive tax in which income levels were immaterial. Everyone paid the same, no matter how differently they benefited from the economy”.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2024/10/26/trumps-tariff-plan-would-undercut-the-entire-us-economy/
—
So, the US aerospace industry will be paying more for everything (due to blanket tariffs), which will make it less competitive. On top of that, other countries will place targeted import tariffs on US aerospace products, which will make them even less competitive.
Sounds like a very sound strategy 🙈
‘Could tariffs replace taxes?’
IIRC – given the size of the tax base, and the imports that the US brings in, this would require a tariff of 65% across the board, against every country.
Not really feasible.
The article posted above performs a similar calculation.
The question was hypothetical — though perhaps not in Tump’s mind.
“Air India Orders 90 More Airbus A320neo and 10 A350”
https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/2024/12/09/air-india-orders-90-more-airbus-a320neo-and-10-a350/
Looks like Air India wants to minimize is exposure to the tariffs circus…and the quality drama.
Order has has little to do with the tariffs circus, since it was already booked months ago.
The original order was booked “months ago” (in 2023) — not this new top-up order from Airbus, which was just announced today.
https://onemileatatime.com/news/air-india-orders-airbus-jets/
No new Air India order from BA, though.
And that much-anticipated big Turkish Airlines order from BA hasn’t materialized, either.
Sorry ,like I stated,this order was already confirmed 3 months ago, and booked as an undisclosed customer, only announced today.
https://www.stattimes.com/aviation/air-india-confirms-order-of-100-aircraft-with-airbus-1353895
If it wasn’t confirmed, then it wasn’t booked.
And there was plenty of talk of sanctions, tariffs and trade wars back in September — enough to make it abundantly clear what was in the pipeline.
Boeing would have had a stronger argument in front of the WTO if they asked from 1972-1991 Airbus’s first yearly profit, who covered the losses and how.
Since we are on the subject of subsidies.
Airbus (EU) the early 70’s and first part of 80’s would fall under WTO “infant industry” and subsidy issue would not apply
“The infant industry argument is an economic theory that states that new industries in developing countries need protection from competition until they can develop economies of scale that rival their competitors. The argument is based on the idea that trade protectionism is costly in the short term but leads to long-term benefits”
@ David Pritchard
Thank you for that quote. I still do not agree with it. Using this very reasoning just gave cover for China and its subsidies to its various industries. Aviation is just one , auto is another.
Tariffs will not fix this, then again, maybe it will by bringing the parties to the negotiating table.
williams
You brought up a good point about China commercial aircraft industry subsides! If the US wants to bring WTO dispute filing against China commercial aircraft subsidies (e.g. EU will not join that filing), one could successfully argue that China qualifies under WTO “infant industry” with only 142 ARJ 21 (first delivery 2015) (C909) and 10 C919 delivered to date
That along with so many global aviation “pundits” (including Boeing and Airbus) saying that the China commercial aircraft industry is not a threat.
I recall the Airbus CEO recently saying that AB
do see COMAC as a threat, longer-term.
For every C929 Comac makes, its one less A320 Airbus sells to China.
Over 20 years that would add up to a chunk out of Airbus sales.
trans
actually you sell A320s (and FAL and wing mfg. in China) to gain access to the widebody market (higher margins) So China could evolve to their C929 (10 years from now) and A350s orders while moving away from 787s
“Boeing has delivered around 76 Boeing 787 Dreamliners to Chinese airlines, with an additional 104 orders still pending delivery”
as of June 2024
“The American manufacturer has so far delivered a total of 26 aircraft to China in 2024, including twenty-two B737-8s, two B787-9s, and now the two B777-200Fs”
@ David Pritchard
Don’t forget this, also:
“Airbus in Talks to Sell Over 100 Widebody Jets to China”
“Chinese airlines are considering purchasing over 100 upgraded A330 models from Airbus. These negotiations highlight the growing contrast between Airbus and Boeing in China’s critical aviation market amidst rising geopolitical tensions between China and the US. Such a large order for a single jet type across multiple carriers is notable, especially since it has been around two years since Airbus’s last major transaction in China.”
https://www.ceoinsightsasia.com/news/airbus-in-talks-to-sell-over-100-widebody-jets-to-china-nwid-12107.html
> For every C929 Comac makes, its one less A320 Airbus sells to China.
🙄😳😂😂
> Over 20 years that would add up to a chunk out of Airbus sales.
Better if those are (truly) concerned about the leaky and sinking ship Boeing care more about BA’s business before it’s too late!!
“For every C929 Comac makes, its one less A320 Airbus sells to China.”
Initially it is one less 737 Boeing could have sold.
new market participants tend to displace the weakest offer.
( Boeing once lamented that Airbus had impacted their sales. WTO Research shew that Airbus had displaced the foundered market participants )
The C929 is a WB aircraft in development.
Poster here is so enthusiastic that BA would be shut out of one of its biggest market!
Boeing has received more than $90 billion subsidies and loans from the governments (states & fed) since 2000;
GM $58 billion (*not including bail-out by the auto task force AFAIK)
F $41 billion;
Stellantis f/k/a Fiat Chrysler f/k/a Chrysler over $20 billion (* see above);
Tesla $3.3 billion.
COMAC may have no intention to enter the US market in the foreseeable future, how about Boeing??
I don’t know how the US can launch a case if not a single COMAC is sold in the US. ROFLMAO.
I think how BA’s case against the little nice aircraft backfired badly should give pause for some posters’ penchant for fantasies. Guess not! 😳
“I don’t know how the US can launch a case if not a single COMAC is sold in the US. ROFLMAO.”
Wait and see.
Watch for the gyrations that will allow US courts to decide what is bought by China or not.
Uwe
Maybe Section 301 filing…”The U.S. Trade Representative (Trade Representative) has determined that the acts, policies, and practices of the Government of China related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation covered in the investigation are unreasonable or discriminatory and burden or restrict U.S. commerce.”
US could take a position about the US joint ventures on the Comac C909 and C919 (e.g. GE, Honeywell….. time will tell
Ah yes: selective pining about the past, and trying to scapegoat the competition…always a good way to pretend that the current quagmire wasn’t 100% of BA’s own making.
How come BA wasn’t able to make a success of itself, despite receiving $90B in subsidies, tax breaks and loans?
Answer: squandering on excessive share buybacks, resting on its laurels, and auto-dismissing the competition.
@ Abalone
If you don’t know the answer its ok to stay out of the conversation. You have started myriads of posts about Boeing you can add too.
I prefer to stick around — inconvenient as that might be to your narrative 👀
Continued, pointless flogging of the “subsidies horse” is an interesting phenomenon for a broad audience.
Background:
“In 1997 the Fortune 500 corporations recorded best-ever earnings of $325 billion, yet incredibly Uncle Sam doled out nearly $100 billion in taxpayer subsidies.1 These welfare payments come in every conceivable shape and size: government grants, sweetheart business deals arranged by the Commerce Department, cut-rate insurance, low-interest loans, a protective wall against foreign competition, exclusive government contracts, and a mind-boggling maze of special interest loopholes in the tax code.”
https://www.hoover.org/research/welfare-well-how-business-subsidies-fleece-taxpayers
Afair TW has brought up that malformed thing from about day one he posted on this site here. immutable.
@abalone
Would you please stop being so confrontational.
You clearly stated it was a new order,
which I simply stated it was not.
Why do you have such a problem with that?
Discussion isn’t confrontation.
And I didn’t “clearly state it was a new order” at all…go back and re-read.
Further:
“On December 9, Airbus and Air India issued a joint statement, announcing that Air India has firmed up another order for 100 aircraft, including the A320neo and A350 aircraft families.”
If it wasn’t firmed-up until now, then it wasn’t an order until now.
The constitution of the final order has also changed: 5 A320-family units have been added.
If you wish to consider unfirm orders to be orders, then go ahead — but don’t expect others to follow suit.
My sincerest apologies..
I completely misunderstood you when you just stated this is a new “Top-up” order from Airbus.
Unbelievable!
Another countermove by China, in response to the accelerating trade war:
“Nvidia Slides After China Says It’s Probing the AI Chip Company for Violating Anti-Monopoly Laws”
“According to data firm FactSet, about 16% of Nvidia’s revenue comes from China, second only to its U.S.-generated revenue.”
https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2024-12-09/nvidia-slides-after-china-says-its-probing-the-ai-chip-company-for-violating-anti-monopoly-laws#:~:text=According%20to%20data%20firm%20FactSet,%2418.12%20billion%20a%20year%20ago.
from Simple Flying
Will The COMAC C919’s Development Be Affected By President-Elect Trump’s Sanctions
“One of the last acts of the first Trump administration was to sanction the Chinese state-owned aerospace manufacturer, Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd. (COMAC). On 15 January 2021, Reuters reported, “The Trump administration on Thursday added nine Chinese firms to a blacklist of alleged Chinese military companies, including planemaker Comac and mobile phone maker Xiaomi…”
https://simpleflying.com/comac-c919-development-president-elect-trump-tarrifs/
If/when the CJ-1000A turbofan goes into production, the Chinese aviation sector will be immune to the sanctions/tariffs circus at the other side of the Pacific.
The original C919 design incorporated some other Western parts/systems (e.g. avionics), but you can be sure that the design has been purged of these elements by now.
So, when the new engine is ready, China can proceed to supply Asia and the Global South with aircraft (and a whole spectrum of defense products) while The Don sulks behind his tariff wall.
I get the impression that after a certain amount of overbearing and destructive effort
any measure to counter the fallout accelerates blowback and thus the perps downfall..
in a few years….China’s Southeast Asia/Africa sales pitch, buy C919 with CJ1000A turbofan and get an option to buy J35 Stealth Fighter
remind me again, why do you need the US for aircraft?
The Chinese will also be offering better pricing, plus the opportunity to pay by means other than the dollar — including barter for commodities / raw materials, if desired.
That will appeal to a lot of countries!
Plus: you’ll be getting an FBW aircraft with EICAS and a cargo hold that can take containerized freight…as opposed to a fossilized pterodactylus.
Wow.
Of course EICAS is the magic elixer though there is zero factual data that says it ever was a cause of a crash (or incident)
As opposed to the insane method of getting aircraft on the ground vis voice coms with Runway incursions (I guess by fossil standards it pre dates the pterodactyls )
So lets parse this out. An Aircraft comes in on approach freq but then is handed off to the tower. No continuity check on coms.
Then an aircraft taxis onto the runway but the go around command is voiced over by another aircraft on the same frequency.
As the fireball erupts on the runway the tower is asking N6544 did you get that?
Granted if you are the Chinese government you can give aircraft away but at a total loss because there is no volume production.
Better yet just give them loans they can’t pay back and then you own the country and can do what you want.
737 MAX pilots have to put a post-it in front of them to remind them to turn off the engine nacelle de-icing after five minutes.
This also hold-up the certification of the MAX 7 and MAX 10. What if the MAX has a modern cockpit similar to other Boeing/Airbus aircraft?
P.S. Before the twin crashes of the 737 MAX, many tout the 737 is one of the safest aircraft. Oops!
“Of course EICAS is the magic elixer though there is zero factual data that says it ever was a cause of a crash (or incident)”
Fallout from the MAX crashes was that US investigators have leaned heavily on main investigators of boeing crashes.
Effecting a result of “Pilot Error” and demoting product (design) defects coming up.
This has tainted a range of crash investigations.
Difference between tariffs for something that will never be sold into the US let alone in Trumps lifetime.
Opinions about the C919 content are just that, opinions. Factually most of the C919 is Western equipment (sans the airframe).
Purging Western systems is virtually impossible. China is working on engines as a step in self sufficiency. As the Russians found out over the years, its an extraordinarily difficult thing to master.
Germany built jet engine in WWII, what they could not do was make them reliable. At issue here is that they need to be reliable, low maint and fuel efficient. Russia never pulled that off (they got high power they wanted and some were reasonably relivable but they required overhaul often and never fuel efficient)
What is acceptable for a military engine where cost is not the object, it is not for a civilian engine.
China tried to buy a Ukraine jet engine mfg to get around that.
While you can reverse engineer shapes and you can determine what the metal mix is, you can reverse engineer the mfg process of mix, pour and temps as well as the various heat treating steps.
Its not China could not replace all the C919 systems, but each one then has to pass their own certification system (not reorganized by anyone else).
The C919 is a prestige project, so a crash would be a black eye to the Government. So unlike UAC and the MC-21, there is no wholesale replacement of Western Components going on.
Are they looking at it? Of course, its China. But we are not talking high volume items. If they follow Airbus FBW model then its only 7 computers (flight) per aircraft (yes 7, not 3 and I don’t know what the 777/787 uses).
Buy from Russia? Maybe but can Russia even get the chips needed? No idea what types of chips are used.
So, Comec is very slow ramp up, no volume and even then its a long time before they make even 100 a year.
C919 has an impossible path to recognized cert and then put a constant change on top of that?
Trans:
its not if, its when…maybe 3-5 years? many of Comac first customers will not need EASA certification since they will be from Southeast Asia and Africa regions
from August 2024
“Certification of the Comac C919 in the European Union (EU) is progressing. EU regulators have been carrying out inspections in China, including an assessment of C919 simulators. The third visit, in a series of four, brought “favorable feedback”, suggesting that the European regulator is satisfied with the progress.
South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported, citing sources familiar with the matter, that representatives from the EU Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) were at the COMAC facility in Shanghai. The report revealed that the feedback received from EASA about the aircraft was positive.
During the visit, they also tested a complete flight simulator, made in China, which competes with the simulators of the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 Max.
This third step, the most significant of EASA’s four-step inspection process, determined whether the product complies with regulatory requirements in terms of structure and electrical systems. Although certification of the aircraft is still some way off, the “positive feedback” suggests a preliminary “approval” from EASA.”
You’re wasting your time.
A certain generation in the US has been conditioned to believe/assume that the Chinese are only capable of making cheap toys.
When that generation is (regularly) surprised by yet another technological achievement from China, it’s just automatically attributed to IP theft, as a scapegoat.
Of course, it suits the Chinese just fine that the US keeps underestimating them 👍
@ DP
The A330neo hasn’t yet been certified by the CAAC — a handy bargaining chip to ensure that the EASA doesn’t get lazy vis-à-vis certification of the C919.
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/certification-a330neo-china-continues
On a similar note, one can imagine that China won’t be in any hurry to certify any of the MAX-7, MAX-10 or 777X if they ever get certified by the FAA — seeing as the US has nothing to offer in return. That means that those aircraft won’t be servicing mainland China any time soon…assuming that they ever get further than their current limbo at the FAA.
@DP
Certain posters here kept repeating same old, same old, they never bother with the current info as they surround themselves with make-believe “facts”.
Oh wow, you believe Chinese propaganda.
“South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported, citing sources familiar with the matter, that representatives from the EU Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) were at the COMAC facility in Shanghai. The report revealed that the feedback received from EASA about the aircraft was positive.”
Its a shame people don’t actually follow in depth what they post.
I have for years. Mitsubishi is a poster child. Full on Corporate goal, money, cooperation to the Nth degree, US full on in their corner, and it FAILED.
COMAC was not even trying when the FAA tried to certify (909 now?) and they gave up because COMAC could not provide any7 of the supporting documentation.
You know, the kind of stuff you need when you make aircraft.
The same issue on the 929, again COMAC was uncooperative despite the FAA laying out the path that has been forged by not just US, but Airbus, Canada, Brazil.
That is why Mitsubishi moved their operation to the US where there were people experienced in assembling that system. And it is a system, intentness documentation. Read Bjorns write-up on the process. You can say anything, for cert, you have to prove everything.
EASA is just looking for something to keep themselves occupied, no new aircraft to play with these days.
And no, its not that Chinese are less capable than anyone else. Its where they are in the system.
Western companies that have their own ops there make products to the same standard they do in Europe or the US.
Chinese non govt companies can do the same (or they can put out scam goods).
You really need to read your history. Japan went through the same cycle and it was low cost goods and they worked their way into being an automotive powerhouse among other industries.
Still did not mean they did or do everything good. You won’t find quality tools from Japan. Its not that they can’t make them, its they can’t make them at a quality point to match US at a lower cost. Ergo, mechanics keep buying Proto, MAC, Snap On etc.
Now are there cheap tools? Yep. I don’t have any. I could not afford tool failures.
And no, they were not cheap. But I still have tools my dad had.
Look up the Extra Tuff story. Great US made rubber boots, bought out, moved to China mfg. Massive boot failures because those were working people boots, not galoshes that got you to work. Mechanics, fishermen, surveyors, house builders, anyone that had to work hard in the muck.
Now they are a fashion statement and they don’t have to be any good.
trans
must be more Chinese Propaganda
“Among them is German-Swiss engineering giant Liebherr, which ships state-of-the-art landing gear for the C919 from its sprawling factory in Changsha.”
“Liebherr reportedly met with Comac last month to discuss cooperation on the C919 and specifications for the widebody C929 model, which is currently under development.”
“Alex Vlielander, Liebherr’s chief customer officer, told the Post at the Zhuhai air show in November that the company’s Changsha plant was playing an important role in helping it keep component deliveries to Comac free from supply-chain disruptions.”
“Landing gear and other products are made locally in China, so shipment to Comac is swift,” he said.”
More than thirty years ago, the FAA issued its first TC for an aircraft designed and produced in China.
In 1991, the USA and China signed a bilateral airworthiness agreement, allowing the FAA and General Administration of Civil Aviation of China to oversee the manufacture of US aircraft in China.
According to a FAA official: “The Y-12 programme was used as a vehicle to demonstrate the CAAC’s compatibility with FAR Part 23.” He adds that most Chinese CCAR-23 certification procedures for small-category aircraft are now recognised by the FAA.
The aircraft has already been certificated by the UK Civil Aviation Authority and is China’s top-selling commercial- aerospace export. Overseas sales to 13 countries, including Fiji, Malaysia, Nepal and Peru.
A famous boot maker was acquired by an American conglomerate, within a few years, they closed the production plant and moved production offshore. Who should be blamed?
This is how late-stage capitalism works. Europeans still maintain their production but their stock valuation is a tiny fraction of America. Pick one: a depressed stock market (i.e. one that crashes from its current height or Americans willing to accept substandard goods peddled by their big conglomerates.
Who really need to read more about your* history and stop selective-forgetfulness?
good news for the C919 program…….CFM has announced that FAA and EASA have certified an upgrade to the LEAP-1A turbine
Doesn’t the C919 use the LEAP 1-C?
Correction welcome..
you may be right about the C version
https://www.safran-group.com/products-services/leap-1c-new-generation-engine-single-aisle-commercial-jets
“The CFM LEAP engine comes in 3 variants (1A, 1B, 1C). The larger LEAP-1A and LEAP-1C variants have bypass ratios of 11:1, while the smaller LEAP-1B only has a bypass ratio of 9:1”
Looking at the specs:
Slightly different fan size. ( 1″ )
different length, weight ( apparently due to how it is measured and with(out) thrust reverser )
no material difference in the core. FADEC programming?
Each LEAP powered aircraft has its own engine.
What GE is doing on the Leap-C will be interesting.
With such low rate production even if they plan on insert, I would guess it will be a while.
A and B justify it with volume though B is not taking any volume right now, they got some stored engines to work through.
And no I do not think C919 will ever get EASA cert. FAA tried while building it and could not get them to follow the process.
Mitsubishi was trying to follow the process and failed.
EASA (and China ) can talk all they want, but the first time they submit and its, oh, you are missing data and the follow up on your rivets, then your skin, then your stringers and spars and so on.
It plays out endlessly and then its, oh, the rivet stuff, its not sufficient, you missed L-Z.
trans
“EASA (and China ) can talk all they want, but the first time they submit and its, oh, you are missing data and the follow up on your rivets, then your skin, then your stringers and spars and so on.”
Comac C919 has newer western modern automation assembly production equipment than Boeing uses for 737. Same automatic fastening machines as Spirit Aero.
It’s a “direct decedent” of the strategy of “denial”, practiced by some large flightless birds.
@TW
“It plays out endlessly and then its, oh, the rivet stuff, its not sufficient, you missed L-Z.”
You are describing the sneaky ways of US institutions.
i.e. the FAA in its international activities.
AFAICS and IMHO: Mitsubishi was “entangled” by the FAA.
Oops. My comment should be posted here:
Trans
Is this your imagination hard at work? I believe what comes out from EASA. 🤣
Forbes: “Trump’s Victory Could Be Costly For Boeing And Aerospace & Defense”
“For Boeing and the rest of the U.S. commercial aerospace industry, which generated a $47 billion trade surplus in 2023, the tariffs and the retaliation they might inspire would be “absolutely ruinous if enacted as planned,” said Richard Aboulafia, a managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory. “Tariffs might work assuming the other guy does nothing, and history says that’s the dumbest assumption ever.”
“A renewed trade war with China would be a punishing setback for Boeing, which has longed to restart sales in one of the most lucrative airliner markets in the world. They trickled to a virtual halt after the Trump administration slapped tariffs on a wide range of Chinese products in 2018. That year, 24% of Boeing plane deliveries were to China. But from 2019 till December 2023 it didn’t make any.
“Tariffs would mean higher parts prices for Boeing, which has a global supply chain. On the 787, about 30% of the widebody’s 2.3 million parts come from overseas. That includes wing components from Japanese and South Korean companies, rudders made in China and landing gear and engines from the United Kingdom. Sourcing parts in other countries has helped Boeing ink sales to airlines there, including in Japan and China, where it has tried for decades to build what it touts as a mutually beneficial partnership. Chinese companies supply parts for every one of Boeing’s commercial airplanes.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2024/11/02/trump-boeing-tariffs-china/
Gee. Seems someone else wrote about this recently.
https://leehamnews.com/2024/12/06/how-trump-tariffs-affected-and-could-affect-airbus-boeing-and-embraer/
Certainly.
Although the Forbes article also touches on the potential effects of defense spending cuts, reform of the FAA and abolition of the ExIm Bank.
Forbes also has a broader readership than LNA, with a large audience in the financial world. So, although LNA and aviation followers were aware of the potential headache for BA, perhaps Wall Street was less so? 2 analysts currently have a “strong buy” on BA stock, and 12 more have a “buy” rating — I get the impression that they need to be enlightened 🙈
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA/analysis/
The analysts generally suck up to the company they cover, with few exceptions.
Thank you for confirming what many already suspected 👍
The same pertains to the broader investment picture: most analysts have an end-2025 S&P500 target of about 7100 — which implies a 16% upside in a market that is already grossly over-bought, comprises more than one bubble, and has considerable misery due to elevated rates, sticky inflation and the tariffs circus on the horizon 🙈
Yes, the sun rises in the East and the world is round.
RA probably has been reading your LNA discussion boards to get his material LOL
RA has been drinking the BA Kool-Aid on 787 foreign content at only 30% Take a look at the 787 workshare diagram and make your own call on foreign content…50%?
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Boeing-787-Global-Work-Breakdown-Structure1-3_fig1_263045210
which ever number you want to use for 787 foreign content percentage (based on engine selection) about 600 of 800 backlog are for foreign airlines, can or is Boeing South Carolina a FTZ (A Foreign-Trade Zone (FTZ) is a secure area in the United States where companies can store, distribute, process, and use imported goods without being subject to customs duty) to get around any new import tariffs coming from the Make Tariff Great Again guy?
I think we’ll be seeing a considerable reduction in that foreign backlog, due to cancellations.
For example: Saudi Arabia has dozens of 787s on order, it’s a BRICS partner (not yet a confirmed member), it’s taking steps to de-dollarize, and it’s not amused by the role of the US in the current Middle East crisis. With all that in mind, do you see that as a shaky order? I do.
Similar situation for the UAE and Qatar (not in BRICS, but actively reducing dollar exposure).
The list goes on.
Remember that, if/when tariffs increase inflation, the consumer will take a hit and will put the brakes on travel, thereby putting downward pressure on airlines and creating an incentive to trim orders. I’m not the only one who thinks that the recent order splurge was somewhat overdone.
Looks as if BA re-started the 737MAX line last Friday:
“Sources familiar with the matter revealed to Reuters that the production line resumed operations last Friday (December 6, 2024), approximately one month after a seven-week strike by 33,000 factory workers.”
Analysts at Jeffries are expecting an average line rate of 29 p/m in 2025.
https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/2024/12/10/boeing-restarts-737-max-production/
FG: “Boeing has restarted 737 production and intends within days to resume assembly of 767s and 777s. […]
The airframer is not more specific about production rates, but sources at the company say 737 output is proceeding at a very slow pace.”
Yes, I consider the Jeffries estimate above to be wildly optimistic 👀
They delivered 396 Maxes in 2023 and 387 in 2022.
29/mo is ~340.
Not completely unreasonable.
Jeffries referred to “production” — not “delivery”.
That’s from the line, as opposed to the parking lot.
@Abalone
You’re not wrong, however, BA recognizes revenues at delivery.
Besides, IIRC the pile of Max’s is getting smaller (with some 30+ Max 7’s & 10’s which aren’t going anywhere soon).
I think the important thing for BA to do, is get everyone on the same side
1) Delivering defect free aircraft
2) Cutting down on travelled work
3) Then worry about getting the speed up.
It’s like they’re back at Square #1, learning to crawl again
@ Frank
A large portion of MAX deliveries this year came from the parking lot (with little-to-no margin as a result of extra rework/de-mothballing costs). That means that relatively little came from the line.
That might change next year…but I’ll believe it when I see it.
“Boeing jet deliveries fall to 13 in November after strike ends”
“Boeing (BA) delivered 13 commercial jets in November, less than a quarter of the 56 jetliners it handed over to customers 12 months earlier, the U.S. planemaker reported on Tuesday.”
“Deliveries were down from 14 in October, when most of the company’s aircraft production was still shut down during a seven-week-long strike that ended Nov. 5.”
“November’s deliveries included nine 737s, two 777 freighters and two 787-9s, according to the company. U.S. carrier United Airlines took delivery of three aircraft, including two 737 MAXes and one 787.”
“Year to date, Boeing has booked 427 gross orders and 370 net orders after cancellations and conversions. After also adjusting for accounting standards, Boeing booked 191 net orders.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-jet-deliveries-fall-13-160522347.html
Wise move by TUI:
“Germany-based TUI canceled orders for 14 737 MAX and will instead lease the planes from BOC Aviation”
Hmmm, is there a difference between A MAX both or leasing? Still a MAX.
At a guess, BOC has the birds sooner than TUI can get them. Leasors do not go short term (there are wet ops out there but lessors don’t play in that arena).
Its at least 3 months before Boeing starts to match previous production and probably a good year or two before they hit the 38 a month limit.
I don’t believe Ortberg cares what happens with the FAA after Jan 20. He understands they have to build to spec.
“Hmmm, is there a difference between A MAX both or leasing? Still a MAX.”
Missing the obvious.
status pre is : there where two orders : one from TUI, one from BOC.
if TUI reroutes its order to BOC those two orders collapse into one order half the size.
status ante: TUI order is lost to Boeing.
Importantly for TUI: it can just send the junk back to the lessor when the lease expires, without having to worry about trying to flog it off second hand.
A wise construct when dealing with an iffy product…and/or when heading into uncertain times.
Seriously calling the MAX junk?
Its EASA certified. Not that I have a lot of faith in EASA but I guess the only gold standard is China Cert.
This article specifically discusses semiconductor applications; however, as I indicated above, the recent Chinese ban on exports of technical metals to the US also affects aviation (alloys and radar applications).
“Beyond Tit for Tat: Unpacking the Real Stakes of the U.S.-China Trade Conflict”
“China has all the intellectual infrastructure to produce top engineers and scientists, a vast computer chip manufacturing sector, and large deposits of and refining capacity for critical high-tech related metals. Not having access to U.S. chip-making equipment, software and advanced chips will just be a bump in the road for China.”
“For the United States, if a genuine and ongoing shortage of antimony, gallium and germanium were to occur, it could cripple the American computer chip industry to a serious degree.”
“So we are back to the illusion that the U.S. and China are merely trading blows of equal importance in an ongoing trade war. My belief is that, in this case, China has the upper hand.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Beyond-Tit-for-Tat-Unpacking-the-Real-Stakes-of-the-US-China-Trade-Conflict.html
from the article
“For gallium the news is worse. China produces 98 percent of the world’s supply. Not surprisingly, the United States imports all of the gallium it uses from China. ”
But don’t worry, the Make Tariff Great Again guy will go back to his old playbook the first week of the new term and put Comac on blacklist (This includes adding the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) onto the Military End User (MEU) List.)
from April 2023
Rubio, Scott Question Commerce’s Failure to Include Chinese State-Owned Aerospace Manufacturer on MEU List
“COMAC’s key parent entities are already included on Commerce’s MEU list, and the Trump Administration had included COMAC itself under its “Communist Chinese Military Companies” investment blacklist. “
And, when that happens, China will just add more essential metals to the list, including rare earths such as:
– Dy and Nd, which are used in Ni superalloys;
– La, which is extensively used in glass polishing / lens manufacture and oil refining;
– Ce, which is used in catalytic converters,
etc.
I wonder if Don and his Earth, Wind & Fire band know anything about the Periodic Table…?
You’ve got to stop it right there. There’s a line not to be crossed and that is when you start using great musical bands in your comparisons.
I grew up listening to them and have fond memories of their songs.
Fantasy. September. Let’s Groove. Boogie Wonderland. To name a few.
Please do not tarnish them by including them in any sentence including…you know who.
@ Frank P
Don’t forget “That’s the way of the world”. You have good musical tastes.
I wouldn’t compare Maurice, Phillip and the band to Ai………..you know who either.
@ Frank P
Surely you can see the likenesses?
– Large, flashy group of showpeople — predominantly male and with no ethnic diversity;
– An echo from a bygone era of “fantasy” and “wonderland”.
An apt comparison to you-know-who’s team 😅
@williams
Ahhhhh….that we could have this conversation without raising the ire of Scott.
EW&F, George Benson, Kool & the Gang, Atlantic Starr, Midnight Star, Chic…on and on.
As I’ve gotten older, I’ve also grown to appreciate other genres – classic rock/orchestrated rock – ELO, Toto, Doobie Bros, Steely Dan and the like.
80’s was a great time too….Depeche Mode, Howard Jones et al.
I know a little bit about music….
Glad to have found someone who can appreciate it, as well.
Back to aviation!
@Frank P
Again, agree on your taste of music. A brother from another mother. LOL
Back to aviation.
When there’s smoke, there’s …?? 🙄
How likely is that? 🍿 🍿 🍿
https://x.com/SenMarkKelly/status/1866994183770431524
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:p5ntcpcygedx4wfoozb6f5ph/bafkreidiw7bmdbsu43cqrs4i7iesymrmwpkh32ivpm3dq3nnjrpanbixrm@jpeg
Nice of the senator to quote from the glossy PR brochure rather than from the real world 👍
China loves these automatic “yes, but ours is better” assumptions 🤭
US strength is in global surveilance and subversion and in general overstepping into established no go areas.
Brinkmanship.
not really in military hardware ( expensive for sure, but .. )
FG: Lawmakers move to cut US F-35 purchases over ‘long-standing’ sustainment issues
Gotta love it. Now they’re start the whole defective cycle over with a new, “improved” model..
Rinse and repeat
Recently, there’s also been cooling interest in the F35 in Europe.
Initial orders for the plane were placed on the basis of “NATO interoperability” and “industrial partnership” hype, but those arguments are now seen as increasingly defunct in the Trump era.
The promised train of “upgrades” has turned into a litany of delays and underperformance.
Advancements in passive radar / hybrid radar also render the (so-called) stealth aspect of subordinate importance.
Increasingly, countries are turning again to 4.5-gen fighters, which are more than adequate for most real-world scenatios, and have far greater utility at a lower price.
And on that note:
“Egypt to Replace US F-16s With China’s J-10C Fighter Jets: Report”
“Meanwhile, the J-10C is equipped to fight against modern threats in air-to-air combat and strike missions with PL-10 short-range and PL-15 beyond-visual-range missiles, high maneuverability, and advanced avionics.
“Reports indicated that Egypt is diversifying its military suppliers to reduce reliance on the West, particularly the US. Following Pakistan’s purchase of the Chengdu J-10C in 2022, Egypt will be the second international customer.
“The move follows the trend of Middle Eastern and African countries seeking alternatives to Western economic and political dominance with restrictive conditions.
“To access favorable funding and investment and align itself more closely with the Global South, Egypt recently joined the BRICS economic group of nations along with Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Ethiopia.”
https://thedefensepost.com/2024/09/10/egypt-orders-j10c-jets/
There’s even talk of China opening a FAL in Egypt to assemble up to 200 J-35 stealth fighters, to serve various customers in the region.
Another example of BRICS at work.
“Southwest Air Nears 36-Plane Deal to Extract Value From Fleet”
“Sale-leaseback deals allow the carrier to sell some of its mid-life 737-800 jets to a lessor and then lease them back for a fixed time period. In Southwest’s case, the term would be three years, Chief Operating Officer Andrew Watterson said.
“The carrier also may sell some planes in its fleet outright, as well as new 737 Max aircraft after receiving them from Boeing. It doesn’t currently need the aircraft, and will lose existing credits from past delays if it doesn’t take the ordered planes, Watterson said. Southwest has Boeing orders through 2031.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-11/southwest-air-nears-36-plane-deal-to-extract-value-from-fleet/
—
One wonders how many other airlines have over-ordered BA aircraft — which are now so late that they’ve become superfluous?
Meanwhile, up north:
“Alaska Airlines Boosts Airbus A321neo Flight Hours Amid Boeing 737 MAX Delays”
https://aviacionline.com/2024/12/alaska-airlines-boosts-airbus-a321neo-flight-hours-amid-boeing-737-max-delays/
“The carrier also may sell some planes in its fleet outright, as well as new 737 Max aircraft after receiving them from Boeing.”
Which airline would be interested in Southwest’s “brand-new” all-economy 175-seat 737 MAX?
on another tariff note
Ontario premier says US energy exports will be cut off if Trump imposes sweeping tariffs on Canada
“The premier of Canada’s most populous province said Wednesday he will cut off energy to the United States if President-elect Donald Trump imposes sweeping tariffs on all Canadian products.”
““This fight is 100% coming on Jan. 20 or Jan. 21,” he said, referencing to the date of Trump’s inauguration.”
““We will use every tool in our tool box to fight back. We can’t sit back and roll over. We just won’t as a country. And isn’t this a shame, our closest friends and allies.”
About 60% of U.S. crude oil imports are from Canada, and 85% of U.S. electricity imports as well.
everyone is ready! and the Make Tariff Great Again guy calling the Prime Minister of Canada the “governor” of the “Great State of Canada” is not a joking matter.
just a fyi
“Most electricity exports from Canada come from eastern Canada, with Quebec and Ontario sending power to New York and Vermont. Western Canadian exports come from British Columbia and Manitoba, and go to California, Minnesota, and North Dakota”
Well said, David.
Not just Ontario:
https://www.hydroquebec.com/clean-energy-provider/
“For the past two decades, Hydro‑Québec has been selling clean, reliable and competitively priced electricity into wholesale markets in northeastern North America.
Hydro‑Québec operates 15 interconnections with Québec’s neighboring markets: Ontario, New Brunswick, New York State and New England.”
https://www.hydroquebec.com/clean-energy-provider/markets/new-york.html
https://www.hydroquebec.com/clean-energy-provider/markets/new-england.html
In such an eventuality, The Don can just annex Canada — right?
After all, he wanted to annex Greenland last time, didn’t he?
And land-grabbing is very much in fashion of late, e.g. in Eastern Europe and the middle east.
AP:
“About 60% of U.S. crude oil imports are from Canada, and 85% of U.S. electricity imports as well.”
“.. noted Ontario powered 1.5 million homes in the U.S. in 2023 and is a major exporter of electricity to Michigan, Minnesota and New York.”
“Canada is also the largest foreign supplier of steel, aluminum and uranium to the U.S. and has 34 critical minerals and metals that the Pentagon is eager for and investing for national security.”
The revolving door just keeps on turning:
“Head of the Federal Aviation Administration to resign, allowing Trump to pick his successor”
“Whitaker took the helm of the FAA in October 2023 after the Senate, which is frequently divided along partisan lines, voted 98-0 to confirm his selection by President Joe Biden. The agency had been without a Senate-confirmed chief for nearly 19 months, and a previous Biden nominee withdrew in the face of Republican opposition.
“FAA administrators — long seen as a nonpartisan job — generally serve for five years. Whitaker’s predecessor, Stephen Dickson, also stepped down before fulfilling his term.”
https://www.wingsmagazine.com/head-of-the-federal-aviation-administration-to-resign/
The new administration wants less regulation…doesn’t bode well for the flying public.
Make Airspace Grisly Again
Whitaker’s “resignation also coincides with the normal departure of other political appointees at the agency when Trump is sworn in, adding to other vacancies including the head of aircraft certification and head of aviation safety. Political appointees at the FAA are the deputy administrator, general counsel, head of the office of airports, head of communications and head of government relations.”
“Deputy Administrator Katie Thomson’s last day will be Jan. 10, after which Mark House, the FAA’s assistant administrator for finance and management, will step in as acting deputy administrator.”
https://theaircurrent.com/feed/dispatches/faa-administrator-whitaker-resigns-ahead-of-trump-inauguration/
Boeing plans to increase 787 production to 10 per month by 2026
“Dec 12 Boeing said on Thursday it plans to increase production of its 787 Dreamliner widebody jets to 10 planes per month by 2026.”
“The planemaker plans to expand its operations at its Charleston County, South Carolina facility with an investment of $1 billion in infrastructure upgrades and the creation of 500 new jobs.”
“Boeing has been trying to bring 787 production back to a rate of five a month by this year’s end, but has wrestled with supply-chain snags that have caused delays.”
any thoughts on doubling production rates (assuming that means deliveries) for the 787 in less than two years?
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Shoddy assembly in Charleston seems to be widespread and entrenched — it won’t be easy to cure.
Sounds like a pep talk to try to push the stock price up
Heh- I had exactly the same thought, esp RE stock price.
Reuters
Inside Boeing’s struggle to make its best-selling plane again
“Parts that used to take a day to be finished at a processing shop now take a week, one supplier told Reuters.” […]
“The restart, while not bringing immediate relief, is good news for financially-strapped fuselage supplier Spirit AeroSystems which was running low on storage space during the strike. A Reuters reporter saw over 100 MAX fuselages lined up at Spirit’s Wichita factory this week.” […]
“Boeing executives have privately said they hope to produce 15 to 20 MAX jets this month, two of the 10 suppliers and one industry source said, although one of them cautioned that the chance of hitting the higher end of that target is unlikely.” […]
“Six out of the 10 suppliers told Reuters they won’t bring back workers before 2025, partly because they are unsure whether Boeing will need to again change its production plans.
Two suppliers said they were told by Boeing that the planemaker is expected to give a private update on a key internal 737 supply chain production milestone for the supply chain, this month.
“Supplier trust in Boeing rates is at a low point,” said Glenn McDonald, a supply chain specialist at U.S. aerospace consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory, which advises clients in areas like business and corporate strategy.
“Suppliers have been burned before by investing for rates that didn’t come … that doubt becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
In the short term, Boeing can likely count on excess parts and components it has amassed this year to build its planes since until the strike it largely continued purchasing from suppliers at a higher rate than it needed because it was producing fewer jets due to the blowout.” […]
Boeing’s struggles mean it will take longer to return 737 MAX production to its pre-strike levels than after a 2008 work stoppage, when the planemaker got back to a monthly rate of 31 in about 25 days, McDonald said.
That longer recovery is being acutely felt by some of the hundreds of small suppliers that dot Boeing’s manufacturing heartland in Washington state.”
Smaller aerospace suppliers are less bullish on making capital investments than many of their larger counterparts, said Christopher Chidzik, principal economist at the Association for Manufacturing Technology, a trade group.” […]
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/inside-boeing-struggle-best-selling-110358069.html
How are all those struggling suppliers going to cope when they have to contend with tariffs on their imports…?
WSJ: Boeing Delays Mean Trump Won’t Fly on a New Air Force One
WSJ
“President-elect Donald Trump didn’t get to fly on a new Air Force One during his first term. He likely won’t get to fly on a new presidential plane in his second term, either.”
“Qatar Air Seeks to Drop Boeing 737s After Making Up With Airbus”
“(Bloomberg) — Qatar Airways is looking to strike the Boeing Co. 737-10 model from its order book because the aircraft no longer meets its fleet requirements, according to people familiar with the discussions.
“The airline, with an order for 25 737-10s, is considering switching to smaller 737-8s and would likely hand those planes to partners like RwandAir and Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd. that already use the model, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private negotiations.”
“The Gulf carrier firmed up the deal for the 737s in mid 2022 at a time when it was mired in a messy dispute with Airbus SE that led to the cancellation of a purchase agreement for 50 A321 narrowbody jets.
“The spat, which originated with the larger A350 model, was later settled out of court and Airbus reinstated the order, leaving Qatar on the hook for the Boeing narrowbody planes that it now doesn’t need anymore.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-13/qatar-air-seeks-to-drop-boeing-737s-after-making-up-with-airbus/
UK, Italy and Japan’s defence groups set up venture overseeing fighter jet project
Company will be accountable for delivering next generation combat aircraft under Global Combat Air Programme
“The national defence champions of the UK, Italy and Japan have struck a deal to govern the production of a next generation fighter jet, as the three nations push forward their ambitious plan to have the aircraft flying by 2035. ”
“The new venture, which will be based in the UK, will be accountable for the design, development and delivery of the next generation combat aircraft under the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP).”
I guess they don’t like Elon’s idea of pilotless fighters jets? MAGA “Make Aircraft Go Away”
There’s also a second such 6-th gen fighter consortium in Europe, comprising France, Germany and Spain:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Combat_Air_System
—
On that other note: Elon (only) does what serves Elon best.
He’ll probably try to get into the military drone business now to compensate for the fact that Tesla is losing its fad appeal, and SpaceX has questionable profitability.
Michael Haidinger, president of Boeing’s European and Middle Eastern regions:
Haidinger added, “The deficit of skilled engineers, technicians, and other aerospace workers has made ramping up production more challenging. Attracting and retaining talent has become a top priority for us. [We are] with many companies investing in workforce development, partnerships with universities, training programs, and apprenticeship programs.”
This is special…what about the 17,000 Boeing employees being laid off and 2,000 Airbus Space employees being let go Why would a college student want to go into the aerospace industry?
The AB move currently doesn’t involve any compulsory departures: the 2000 figure will be achieved by natural flow-off. So, in a way, there’s little loss of realistically exploitable talent.
The (much bigger) BA move involves compulsory departures — including hundreds of SPEEA engineers: much bigger brain drain effect in this case.
Airbus:
“Due to overwhelming popularity the graduate programme has closed applications early, but you can still find your dream job with us.”
https://www.airbus.com/en/careers/students-and-graduates/graduates
AW
Airbus To Take Over Two A320 Subassembly Sites From Daher
“Airbus has started negotiations with Daher for the potential acquisition of some Daher activities in A320 family aerostructures subassembly near Nantes, Western France, the two companies said this week”
just a fyi
Qatar energy minister: I don’t ‘worry much’ about Trump’s vow to lift LNG exports cap
“If you take a decision to have an LNG facility or an export facility, and decide to do it today, it takes six to 10 years to actually have it up and running and operational,” he said, stressing that it is not a “switch on, switch off” move.”
Various EU countries have recently signed huge, multi-year LNG purchase agreements with Qatar to supply millions of tons of gas per year. Pricing is in euros.
Why? Because of the US export cap, and also excessively high pricing on US shipments in the past 2 years.
So, Don can (try to) raise the cap…but who will he sell to?
I wonder if anyone at the US commerce dept. ever takes a retrospective look at US trade policies so as to determine their knock-on effects?
MAGA Make America’s Gas Affordable!
MAGA: Make Alternative Gas Attractive
“Spirit Airlines is seeking court approval of a sale-and-leaseback deal with Jackson Square Aviation for 4 A321neos with deliveries from December through April 2025.”
https://bsky.app/profile/byerussell.com/post/3ld2t2ett4s2e
Editorial: A trade-dependent state braces for Trump’s tariffs
“About 40 percent of jobs in Washington state — manufacturing, food and agriculture, retail, technology and science — are tied to international trade.”
“The markets for those exports span the continents, but among the largest customers are China, Canada, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and India. And 95 percent of the goods and services produced in Washington state go to consumers in those global markets.”
Iowa State University:
“We consider a 2024 presidential campaign proposal to escalate US tariffs against all trade partners, with exceptionally high tariffs on Chinese goods. With inevitable retaliation, this creates a trade siege of “fortress America,” which disadvantages US exports around the world in favor of trade from other countries. US tariff escalation creates a lucrative set of opportunities for everyone else. For instance, many US manufactured goods would exit European markets as Chinese goods enter, and European consumers and Chinese manufacturers benefit at the expense of US manufacturers. Strengthened trade ties between Europe and China also work in the other direction. China substitutes away from US business services in favor of European service exports. China further entrenches its reliance on agricultural goods from Latin America boosting income in countries like Brazil. Of course, there are costs of the trade war in terms of global efficiency and adverse local impacts on states and agricultural markets. Our new analysis of escalating protection suggests that nearly everyone outside the United States benefits as it moves to isolate itself from global trade. The United States disproportionately bears the global efficiency cost.”
—
“If the United States were to impose the 60% tariff on China and a 10% tariff on everyone else, US losses are $511.0 billion; and, if everyone retaliates in kind, US losses grow to a shocking $911.8 billion”
“Specifically, if the United States were to impose the 60% tariff on China, China’s estimated losses are equivalent to $70.6 billion. But if China retaliates, their losses reduce to $50 billion because the retaliation shifts the terms-of-trade in their favor.”
“The EU benefits the most ($234.6 billion) when they let the United States go it alone, under the “ALL6010” scenario.”
https://agpolicyreview.card.iastate.edu/fall-2024/waging-global-trade-war-alone-cost-blanket-tariffs-friend-and-foe
They didn’t mention Canada and Mexico….they could be loser in trade war
But maybe Canada does mostly nothing! So the Northeast US electric consumers will have to pay more with 25% US tariffs…its not like Canada can ship electric overseas.
No, electricity cannot be shipped overseas.
Canada produces 70% of its electricity from renewable sources. 62% is hydroelectric. 7% of total production goes to the US.
Canadians could use that 7%, to get further off of non-renewable sources.
In 2022, Canada was the world’s second largest producer and second largest exporter of uranium. Nuclear power plants generate about 13% of Canada’s electricity.
Excess electricity can be used to make hydrogen, which can then be exported in liquified form…
Boeing 777-9:
Would the aircraft fly again before y.e.?
Dec 13 WH001 777-9 N779XW. The right engine S/N 610108 has been reinstalled with new instrumented thrust links.
Strain gauge wire routing and hook ups completed this week.
Dec 10 New thrust links have been installed on GE9X S/N 610121, today it was moved in front
of 777-9 WH004 for installation
Boeing 787
Dec 4 Both engine inlets are being replaced on ZB668 Korean Air 787-9 HL8392. Delivery flight scheduled for December 23
Nov 8
ZB920 China Southern Airlines 787-9 line 1020 is being prepared for storage
Engine inlet replacement on ZE046
Royal Air Maroc 787-9 CN-RHA
Source:
http://paineairport.com/
So, as I said a few weeks ago regarding the 777X thrust link: they don’t even know the nature/cause of the problem yet, much less having a cure for it, much less having a certifiable implementation of that cure.
Good luck with EIS in 2026 🤭
history on China Airlines 787-9 line 1020
https://www.b787register.co.uk/airframe.php?ln=1020 rolled out June 2020
5 years and 4 months in the assembly process and still a heap of junk.
Speaks volumes.
And BA is investing so as to *double* Charleston’s output…?
an oldie but goodie
Boeing Redefines ‘The Box’ with Its New 7E7 Dreamliner Airplane (2003)
“In a revised look at commercial airplane production, final assembly of the 7E7 is targeted to take approximately three days instead of the 13-17 days that today’s airplanes take.”
https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2003-07-01-Boeing-Redefines-The-Box-with-Its-New-7E7-Dreamliner-Airplane
back around that time, If anyone questioned those assertions he/she was submerged in a shitstorm. A full spectrum group hallucination. Apparently some still have not come clean.
“your link”
2021-07-01 Subject to Forward and Aft Structural Checks
2024-02-01 Stored at Kelly Field
nearly 3 years.
what happened in the mean time?
Looking at the multiple-years-old 787s in the parking lot at BA, I see 6 Lufthansa frames — which is a heavy concentration for a single airline.
Has LH decided to reject these frames, and they’re not yet designated as NTU?
Some are nearly 5 years old at this stage.
LH is said to be rather fickle with accepting new frames.
They dropped one 748 for “excess of fixes” afair.
Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 777 Delivered A Few Days Ago Declared An Emergency
“Furthermore, it is key to note that the Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 777 involved in the emergency was only delivered to the airline just a few days ago as ET-BBG.
Data from Planespotters.net notes that this aircraft is a 4.9 year old airframe.
Moreover, the aircraft was initially destined for China Southern Airlines but was never taken up by the airline.
As a result, the aircraft was placed in storage in Victorville between March 2022 and December 2024.”
Delivered: December 10-11.
First revenue flight: December 12.
First emergency: December 14.
And the airline involved is one of the misfortunate MAX crash arlines.
That’s a good look for Ortberg’s big turnaround plans 👍
https://aviationsourcenews.com/ethiopian-airlines-boeing-777-delivered-a-few-days-ago-declared-an-emergency/
Leased by BCC? BCC is/can not really winding down its operation I guess.
https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/boeing-777-300er-et-bbg-ethiopian-airlines/edwlxm
good info
BCC ceased operations a couple of years ago, with all assets and management absorbed into BCA.
so Boeing bought the 777 from Boeing “inventory” (in Victorville CA) and then it was sold to someone who leased it to Ethiopian Airlines?
Or Planespotters had the aircraft under BCC, which is now BCA and didn’t know or make the change, most likely.
Note 8 – Financing Receivables and Operating Lease Equipment
The majority of our financing receivables and operating lease equipment portfolio is concentrated in the following aircraft models:
……………………….September 30, 2024……December 31, 2023
717 Aircraft (Accounted for as sales-type leases) $447 $478
747-8 Aircraft (Primarily accounted for as notes) 97 129
737 Aircraft (Primarily accounted for as operating leases) 47 156
777 Aircraft (Accounted for as operating leases) 187 194
Whether the title is being held by a subsidiary of BCC or BCA, I don’t care.
What matters is the aircraft is (still) owned by Boeing. And we have no idea what are the terms of the lease, is it (very?) favorable to the lessee..
“Trump angrily confronted Boeing CEO upon learning Air Force One updates delayed until 2029”
“The Daily Beast reported Friday that Boeing’s delayed delivery schedule has frustrated the president-elect so much that he’s reportedly been berating both Boeing’s CEO and his own staff. The Beast’s Leigh Kimmins wrote that Trump had made revamping Air Force One his “pet project,” and was supposedly livid when hearing he wouldn’t personally get to use the new plane.”
“…That apparently wasn’t good enough for Trump, who the Beast reports “demanded answers” from Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg in a November phone call. The incoming president is also reported to have “badgered his own staff for updates” on whether the planes would be ready before the end of his presidency.”
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-air-force-one-2670453319/
—
So, looks like Kel won’t be getting any favors from Don in the next 4 years.
Poor Kel just can’t catch a break.
Why did Trump feel the need to lash out at Canada? He not only threatened 25% tariffs Donald Trump made a not-too-veiled threat to annex Canada. I get that he is not a fan of Trudeau. As a Canadian, I can attest most Canadians have had it with Justin also but Trump went beyond insulting Trudeau. He INSULTED and THREATENED every Canadian.
Trump told NBC Face The Nation “We subsidize Canada to the tune of $100 billion – if this is to continue maybe they should become the 51st State” (paraphrasing).
A FREE TRADE agreement exists between the United States and Canada (and Mexico) which was negotiated and signed by Trump in his first term. Canada has been abiding by the letter of this agreement. Currently, the US has a $50 billion trade deficit (not $100 billion). Is that a reason to tear up the agreement? Are agreements negotiated and signed by Trump not worth the paper they are written on? (REST OF THE WORLD TAKE NOTE)
It should be noted that the $50 billion deficit is on two-way trade of almost $1 TRILLION and $150 billion of that trade includes Canadian oil. Would Trump rather buy oil from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, or Iran instead of America’s neighbor to the North?
As noted in this article Trump’s previous tariffs have been counterproductive to the aviation industry. Trump all but destroyed Boeing’s business with China which was once its biggest customer. Boeing was at that time the biggest and most successful American company exporting manufactured American products to the world.
The numbers do not lie. Under Obama US exports as a percentage of GDP rose to a high of 13.55%. In the last year of Trump’s term, they had fallen to 10.08% of GDP or $2.15 trillion. Two years later in 2022 under Biden that figure rebounded to almost $3 trillion in exports! How many jobs are created by an additional $1 trillion in exports?
Aviation is the most intertwined industry globally. Trump’s threats of a trade war will result in many projects being put on the back burner. In this climate of uncertainty, how can Boeing or Airbus commit to any new programs?
Trump is of the mindset that every product bought in America must be made in America and if not he will slap massive tariffs on any import. Trump believes America must not buy any manufactured product from any other country (natural resources exempted of course) and he believes the rest of the world will be happy with this one-way trade arrangement. That might have worked 50 years ago. It won’t work in 2025.
Canada is not alone — he’s also attacking the EU and BRICS.
I think it very likely that annexation of Greenland will also be broached again.
During his first term, he complained to a german minister (at a summit), asking why Germany sends so many cars to the US but doesn’t buy (m)any back. The minister replied: “If you want the world to buy more of your cars, then you need to make better cars”.
This point is, of course, lost on Trump and his ilk, because they just automatically assume that the US is best in everything.
As regards your oil:
I know that Canada moves it to the US via pipeline. If any of those pipelines pass near a suitable port, I’m quite sure that the EU would be happy to buy more shipped oil from you. Last year, the EU imported 6.7 million tons of Canadian oil, which is only 3% of your export total.
The EU and Canada have the CETA free trade agreement: now is the time to make full use of it.
Canada is held in VERY high esteem at this side of the Atlantic 👍
Thank you for your reply! The problem with Canada exporting our oil to the rest of the world is that American-funded “environmental groups” which I suspect include the State Department and Bill Gates have mounted major protests against pipelines over the past DECADES.
As a result, we have just one pipeline with limited capacity to the West Coast. We don’t even have a Canadian pipeline to the East Coast to supply our Maritime Canada refineries much less export our oil to Europe!
As a result, Canada has essentially only one foreign customer for our oil – The United States of America. Imagine having an in-demand product and only having one customer.
That is where Canada is. We cannot command market-level prices for our oil and the United States likes it that way. Now Donald Trump wants to penalize Canada for selling $150 billion in cheap oil to the United States because it results in a $50 billion deficit to which Trump proclaims “Canada is RIPPING US OFF!” “We are subsidizing this freeloader! Canada needs to become the 51st State”.
I suspect that Trump has no idea that Canada is supplying the United States with crude oil at a MAJOR discount to world prices or that it is a heavy crude that US refineries need a supply of. When Trump cut off the supply of heavy crude from Venezuela the United States had to import heavy crude from Russia for the refineries that needed it. This at a time when Trump was admonishing Europe for buying natural gas from Russia (something that Europe had done since Soviet times)
Deliver West and not down South?
Japan, Asia in general?
IMU it is not Canada’s job to advise the US on prudence.
Well, there’s a pipeline to Vancouver, and oil can be shipped from there to Europe via the northern sea route, which is now ice-free for longer each year. Russia is using this route to export Ural oil to China.
And @Uwe is right: Vancouver can also be used to export to Asia.
Not sure how long it would take to get that previously-proposed Energy East pipeline built?
Maybe Don is just assuming that US refineries can be re-tooled overnight so as to refine sweet crude from the US? Someone needs to tell him that that will take 5 years and cost billions of dollars…
“retooling US refineries”
My understanding is that there is a trend to RustBelting
those.
US has sucked up vast amounts of diesel
in recent years ( driving the price here in Europe )
The Irving Oil Refinery in Saint John, New Brunswick, is Canada’s largest refinery, with a capacity of 320 thousand barrels per day can ship overseas ..via the Bay of Fundy to the Atlantic Ocean
just a fyi
Refurbish or replace? American Airlines ponders fate of top international workhorse jet
“American has 47 of the 777-200s — more than any other wide-body plane in its fleet.”
“But American’s fleet of 273-seat 777s isn’t young, either. With an average age of just under 24 years, the jets date back to the early years of Boeing’s 777 program.”
“Its 20 larger 777-300ER aircraft are younger, with an average age of just under 11 years, per Cirium.”
with no 777x on order but have 25 787 on order
They’ll be waiting years for replacements.
And who’d be dumb enough to refurbish frames that are 24 years old?
Didn’t they see this coming…?
Note: They have the ER version. i.e. 777-200ER
probably not completely worthless 🙂
787 HGW certified by the middle of 2025??
Nothing new:
United is still flying 777-200s more than 30 years old
Delta is flying a couple 767s approaching 35 year old
Yes, US carriers seem to love holding on to frames until they get *very* old — seemingly unashamed of the decrepitude that that exudes:
“Embarrassment In The Skies: The American Airlines A320 Fleet Is So Bad Even The Tape On Seats Is Falling Apart”
“The American Airlines fleet of Airbus A320s is a mess, and should really be put out of their misery. Since the airline has gone over a decade without investing in them, they’re dragging down already low expectations for customer experience at the airline.”
https://viewfromthewing.com/embarrassment-in-the-skies-the-american-airlines-a320-fleet-cant-even-hold-it-together-with-tape/
I heard wheel literally fell off a United 757 in LAX 😂
https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6357163122112
That is more of an MX issue than a “well worn” thing, right?
and no A330s or A350s on order either! As for widebodies..”If its not Boeing, AA is not going”
The old A330. What about an A330neo freighter? I guess Airbus will certify that aircraft for an upcoming tanker competition. What would the civil market think about an A330neo freihter?
With the el Cheapo 767F out of the way?
probably better than the CEO freighter.
Would the MTOW boost translate into higher payload?
JUST IN: Drones shut Wright Patt airspace down for about four hours…
“Wright-Patterson Air Force Base’s airspace was closed by unidentified drones Friday night and early Saturday..”
https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/just-in-small-drone-shut-wright-patt-air-space-for-four-hours/
“An image recently shared on social media shows about 18 Boeing 777-9s parked without paint or engines.”
https://x.com/b777xlovers/status/1860710832772149425
…and they’ll all need some form of (extensive) modification if/when BA figures out how to fix the thrust link problem (if at all).
Will anyone be interested in taking frames that are:
– Years old;
– Have been stored outside, at the mercy of the elements;
– Have had to undergo extensive rework…?
from March 2019
Boeing to roll out 777X on March 13
“The driving force behind the 777X is Emirates’ President Sir Tim Clark, whose airline is the lead buyer with an order for 150. Sir Tim describes the 777X as “an absolute peach”.”
just fyi, the production equipment for 777x was installed around 2016, probably will need upgrades for outdated electronics
from 2020 Simple Flying
How Delta Is Avoiding Paying Import Tariffs On Airbus Planes
“The loophole is that, under the rules of the tariffs, a new aircraft is defined as one with “no time in service or hours in flight other than for production testing or for delivery to the US.” That means that, once an aircraft has flown a non-US route for any other purpose, it is no longer new. The carrier can then bring it into the US as “used” without being subject to the tariffs.”
“Delta exploits a loophole
As reported by Bloomberg on Tuesday, November 17, Delta Air Lines is avoiding paying millions of dollars in import tariffs on new Airbus planes. Donald Trump imposed the levies in October 2019. Since then, the Atlanta-based airline has taken delivery of seven Airbus aircraft, but instead of flying them to the US, it has based the planes overseas in locations such as Amsterdam, El Salvador, and Tokyo.”
““We have made the decision not to import any new aircraft from Europe while these tariffs are in effect. Instead, we have opted to use the new aircraft exclusively for international service, which does not require importation. The aircraft are being treated the same as our foreign competitors’ aircraft which allows us to remain competitive in the global markets we serve.”
Creative…but not a realistic option for the large numbers of A321s/A320s/A220s that US carriers have on order.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see (some) deferrals as a way to avoid tariffs — especially if there’s a cooldown in consumption (of which there are already some signs). Further rises in inflation and/or interest rates will have a dampening effect on consumer sentiment, and will also impact operating costs for airlines. That’s a side of the Trump coin that many are choosing to overlook.
—
“Americans may have to actually brace for stagflation with Trump tariffs”
“…if new tariffs are imposed in a “haphazard” and “hasty” way such that businesses don’t have ample time to reconfigure their supply chains, it could significantly hamper economic growth by also forcing businesses to pull back on any new investments due to heightened uncertainty, Feroli said.
“Stagflation could also materialize if other nations were to respond with retaliatory tariffs on US-produced goods, likely leading employers to lay off workers as a result, he said.”
https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/17/economy/trumps-tariffs-stagflation/index.html
—
“Some analysts see inflation lurking in Trump’s plans”
““Those all smell a bit inflationary to us,” said Collin Martin, a director and fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, which is a Marketplace underwriter.”
https://www.marketplace.org/2024/12/17/some-analysts-see-inflation-lurking-in-trumps-plans/
—
“America’s Low-Cost Airlines Are in Trouble”
“Despite record passenger numbers this year, airlines struggle to mitigate higher costs, such as fuel, wages and interest rates.”
https://www.newsweek.com/america-low-cost-airlines-trouble-1966947
Court Grants Spirit Airlines Definitive Approval to Finalize Sale of 23 Airbus A320 and A321 Aircraft to GA Telesis
“The United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York has granted definitive approval for Spirit Airlines to complete the previously announced sale of 23 Airbus A320 and A321 aircraft to GA Telesis”
“The agreement, part of Spirit’s broader fleet optimization and liquidity strategy, involves the sale of 15 Airbus A320 and 8 Airbus A321 aircraft to GA Telesis.”
“the Port of Mobile, Alabama is located in a Foreign-Trade Zone (FTZ) called FTZ 82. The City of Mobile is the grantee of FTZ 82, and the Mobile Airport Authority is the operator.”
“The U.S. FTZ program aims to promote American competitiveness by encouraging companies to expand their operations in the United States”
That said, Airbus A320 and 220 can have “duty deferral” on incoming parts/subassemblies and ship the completed aircraft to overseas customers…
While Delta and Jet Blue might not want any of the aircraft, their global competition will be glad to take their production slots As for Delta A350s, Sir Tim will probably take a move up on production slots.
“Aer Lingus has taken delivery of its first Airbus A321XLR from Hamburg. The aircraft, EI-XLR, is expected to land in Dublin in the next few minutes. The airline will become the second operator of the aircraft type worldwide and expects to receive the second one tomorrow.”
https://x.com/airwaysmagazine/status/1869373203531141309
Wow the second A321XLR of Aer Lingus en-route to Dublin
“Following the earlier arrival of EI-XLR, Aer Lingus’s first Airbus A321XLR, the second aircraft, EI-XLT, #EINA21N has now departed Hamburg en-route to Dublin.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GfGupifXwAA0k25?format=jpg&name=large
AW
“Korean Air has quietly exercised options to acquire six more Airbus A321neos. The decision came to light in a South Korean stock exchange filing dated Dec. 4. The six aircraft are attached to the airline’s October 2023 order for a further 20 A321neos, based on an amendment to that order.”
Note, however, that Korean hasn’t firmed-up the LOI that it signed with BA at Farnborough…
Air Canada reorganizes fleet, all Boeing 737 MAX planes to transfer to Rouge
“It is expected that the timing of the Boeing 737 MAX 8s leaving the Air Canada mainline fleet for Rouge will be carefully coordinated so that there is no capacity shortfall at the parent company. The company has invested heavily in the Canadian-built Airbus A220-300 in recent years, with 34 already in service and 26 yet to be delivered.”
“Additionally, the airline has been favoring the Airbus A321 for its medium-haul routes, of which it has 34 in service with a further 35 A321neos on order.
more Air Canada moves
Air Canada Leases Two Boeing 767 Freighters To Ethiopian Airlines Cargo For Global Growth
just a fyi Air Canada has 57 787 ordered with 39 delivered…leaving 28 to be delivered?
“The two Boeing 767 freighters leased by Ethiopian Airlines were originally purchased by Air Canada in June 2022 as part of its strategy to expand its own dedicated cargo services.”
China’s ‘Food Silk Road’ holds key to thwarting Trump tariffs
“Brazil has since become China’s largest agricultural supplier, accounting for almost a quarter of total agricultural imports. The US is in second place at just under 14 per cent.”
“In the first 10 months of 2024, only 16.7 per cent of China’s imported soybeans came from the US compared to 34.3 per cent in 2017. In contrast, Brazil accounted for 75.5 per cent of China’s soybean imports, a significant increase from 53.3 per cent in 2017.”
just a fyi
“At the end of March 2023, China and Brazil signed an agreement to settle all trade in the two countries’ respective currencies, rather than in US dollars. This agreement, as well as remarks made by President Lula during his visit to China, show that Brazil is keen to disrupt the US dollar’s dominance as the main trade currency, which aligns with Beijing’s aspirations to internationalize the renminbi.”
And on that note:
“Trump’s BRICS salvo an exercise in dollar destruction”
“Trump’s 100% tariff threat on bloc will only fuel ditching of the buck”
“A ham-fisted approach to bilateral relations with major rising powers, meanwhile, will likely only strengthen their resolve to band together and collectively undermine any US-led global order.”
https://asiatimes.com/2024/12/trumps-brics-salvo-an-exercise-in-dollar-destruction/
The link is incorrect in asserting that a BRICS currency is not being contemplated:
“”(New Development Bank President Dilma Rousseff) came out and publicly said that there has been an agreement in principle to use a new settlement currency called the Unit, which will be backed 40 percent by gold and 60 percent by the local currencies in the BRICS union — the BRICS+ countries.”
https://investingnews.com/brics-currency/?utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=syndication
Welcome to 2.0 for the Make Tariffs Great Again Guy
“Dow plunges more than 1,100 points and marked its longest losing streak since 1974”
As for the feds on future rate cuts
“When the path is uncertain, you go a little slower,” Powell said. It’s “not unlike driving on a foggy night or walking into a dark room full of furniture. You just slow down.”
Wonder if the Make Tariffs Great Again Guy gets the 2025 Time Person of Year award for plunging the world economies into recessions
The Boeing astronauts’ return to Earth is delayed again, this time because of a SpaceX spaceship
“Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams were set to finally come back to Earth in February. Now the earliest they can return is in late March, NASA announced in a blog post on Wednesday.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-astronauts-return-delayed-again-spacex-spaceship-2024-12
SpaceX spaceship
Back in May 2024 “Elon Musk criticizes Boeing’s launch setback, gloats SpaceX’s success.”
Elon, remember what goes around comes around…
Boeing’s Year of Crisis Leaves Investors Wary of Beaten-Up Stock
“What was supposed to be a comeback year for Boeing Co. has turned into its worst stock-market plunge since 2008, and if Wall Street is right, the plane-maker’s shares may have only a modest recovery in store in 2025.
The stock is down 35% this year, placing it among the 20 biggest decliners in the S&P 500 Index. The shares have stabilized over the past month, but investors remain wary. They point to the string of crises in 2024 that shook their confidence in Boeing’s prospects and the risk that it will suffer should trade friction build anew under President-elect Donald Trump. […]
The chain of events pummeled Wall Street’s profit expectations. Twelve months ago analysts on average expected Boeing to earn $4.18 a share this year, after four straight annual losses, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They now anticipate a loss of $15.89 per share, the worst since 2020. At the same time, estimates for 2025, 2026 and 2027 have collapsed by roughly 50% or more from year-ago levels. […]
Trade disruptions could inflate costs as nearly half of the company’s suppliers are outside the US, a threat to both revenue and margins…”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2024/12/15/boeings-year-of-crisis-leaves-investors-wary-of-beaten-up-stock/
China Airlines opts for A350-1000s and 777Xs, including Boeing freighters
“Taiwan’s China Airlines has announced a $11.9 billion deal to split its long-haul fleet renewal between Boeing and Airbus. The airline will purchase 10 Boeing 777-9 aircraft and 10 Airbus A350-1000s, as well as four 777-8 freighter aircraft, with deliveries starting from 2029. The A350s will be powered by Rolls-Royce engines, while the 777-9s will be powered by GE engines.”
“It’s the first time that China Airlines has added the two passenger-aircraft variants to its fleet. The carrier already has 15 Airbus A350-900s and also flies the older 777 model. Its fleet of more than 80 planes is broadly balanced between both manufacturers.”
so for fleet planning purposes, they have 10 A350-1000 coming
“so for fleet planning purposes, they have 10 A350-1000 coming”
Precisely.
They know the 777X will probably never be delivered — in practice, it’s a convenient “hollow order” to keep various US politicians happy, by creating the illusion of loyalty.
In reality, the airline is migrating to an Airbus WB fleet.
Looks like you’ll have to add Pegasus Airlines to that list.
Just ordered/optioned 200 max 10’s.
No word yet on the cancellation of the 787 order as of yet from China Airlines..
I suspect you fully expect that as well.
from March 2024
“Turkish budget carrier Pegasus Airlines has announced it intends to retain its Boeing 737 fleet as it looks to meet growing demand for its services. The announcement marks a sudden about-turn for the carrier which had previously announced that it would become an all-Airbus operator by the end of 2025. ”
“We were heading to a single-type fleet,” Chief Executive Officer Guliz Ozturk said. “However, with this growth and with this size, we made our internal analysis and feasibility and decided to keep nine Boeing aircraft. In terms of cost, in terms of complication, it’s manageable.”
just a fyi, Pegasus Airlines has a history to using Airbus Ex Im Banks financing (e.g. UK) in the past I wouldn’t be surprised if US ExIm Bank is involved with financing part of this 100 737-10 order
more info
“”Pegasus has signed an agreement with The Boeing Company for 200 Boeing 737-10 aircraft,” the low-cost airline said in a statement that valued the “historic” contract at “approximately $36 billion”.
we know that’s list price and it includes options…so call it $9 billion for 100 737-10 The question is where does Pegasus Airlines get the financing when their market cap is about $3 billion?
@DP
Trump wants to get rid of the US ExIm bank…so there mightn’t be any financing coming from those quarters.
Further, your figure suggests a 50% discount, whereas 60% has been the recent norm…which then leaves $7.2B.
It’s very unusual for an LCC to consider a second aircraft type in the fleet. I hope Pegasus didn’t fall for the “early slots” ruse…
“The announcement marks a sudden about-turn for the carrier which had previously announced that it would become an all-Airbus operator by the end of 2025.”
Airbus will get the last laugh when Pegasus don’t get their 737Max-10 until the early 2030’s (if ever)
on another note, for 2.0 there goes the Bank of Boeing….and US farmers lose their subsidies and fewer exports for the agricultural products….
when US goes after China, maybe China will shut down Telsa China (Tesla’s Shanghai factory, also known as Giga Shanghai, produces more than half of all Tesla vehicles globally produces more than half of all Tesla vehicles globally) “Tesla’s Shanghai factory has a production capacity of over 950,000 vehicles per year for the Model 3 and Model Y combined”
The China Airlines 787s were slated to start delivery in 2026…but I somehow doubt that that will be the case.
I don’t actually think that the airline wanted to order them at all: at the time, it was pressured into doing so by various US politicians.
If/when those frames are more than 2 years late, they can be cancelled without penalty.
—
As regards Pegasus, maybe they’re following the same model as Southwest? i.e. order the MAX, collect compensation for late delivery along the way, and then immediately sell the planes to another customer if they ever do get delivered.
Does anyone seriously believe that the MAX-10 is going to be certified in 2026?
Pegasus fleet…117 aircraft…9 737 and remaining are A320-200 series
“Turkish low-cost carrier Pegasus Airlines has placed a firm order for 100 Boeing 737 Max 10s, with options for up to a further 100 of the type. ”
other 737-10 news from October 2024
“Delta Air Lines to Receive its First 737 MAX 10 in 2026
The airline has amended its purchase agreement with Boeing, which includes firm orders for 100 737 Max 10s and options for an additional 30 aircraft.”
any bets on 2026 deliveries?
I came here to read the gnashing of teeth due to the 200 Boeing 737-10s order. You do not disappoint, thank you for the entertainment.
for your reading enjoyment
“Pegasus said the “general anticipation” is for the Max 10 to be certified in the second half of 2025. The US planemaker’s final 737 Max models are running years behind schedule as they face tougher regulatory scrutiny, including a requirement to redesign of the jet engines anti-ice system”
So, as suspected, Pegasus has fallen for the “early slots” trick.
They should have talked to Tim and Michael first 🙈
Still, there’ll be a nice monthly sum of compensation on 100 units once the delays start. And they may make additional profit on re-sale, if they give a lower discount than they received 👍
what favor Kool-Aid are they drinking this month
Bloomberg:
> The airline also has outstanding orders for another 53 A321 jets
> Jefferies doesn’t expect the stretched 737 to begin commercial service until 2026. And that’s presuming the certification doesn’t get hung up on fresh turmoil in Washington DC, Kahyaoglu said, with a potential government shutdown looming and the head of the US Federal Aviation Administration set to step down when President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2024/12/19/pegasus-buys-as-many-as-200-boeing-737-jets-in-36-billion-deal/
It seems you’re confusing “knashing of teeth” with “crying with laughter” — both can produce a contorted facial expression, but for very different reasons 😅
The stonk is flat today, the market knows something we don’t?
The Air Current is reporting that BA wants to be producing its full FAA-allowed allotment of 38 MAXs per month just 5 months from now.
Unsurprisingly, the supply chain finds this unrealistic.
https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-production/boeing-charts-aggressive-737-max-production-ramp-up-in-2025/
And that’s not even taking the effect of tariffs into account 🙈
“The Air Current is reporting that BA wants to be producing its full FAA-allowed allotment of 38 MAXs per month just 5 months from now.”
The return of… Mr Calhoun?
Cal never left…remember?
—
Kel: “Shareholders are listless”
Cal: “Just feed them some hype”
Kel: “Such as…?”
Cal: “Just spout some hot air about ramp-up”
Kel: “But the supply chain won’t fall for that!”
Cal: “Who cares about the supply chain? The share price is all that matters!”
BA’s goal is less about how many they can deliver, more about how much PDP they can collect before the y.e.
They are going to have a huge pick up of PDP this month by pretending, oops, scheduling to build as many 737 MAX as possible. 😀
Good point 👍
The Air Current:
> “That is incredibly aggressive, probably unrealistic,” said the supplier official. Underscoring the fragility of the trust between Boeing and its massive network of suppliers, the official said: “All I want is a year where they’ll do what they say they’ll do,” noting that the company’s production guidance for the supply chain has repeatedly failed to materialize since even before the 737 Max was grounded for 20 months starting in March 2019.
Furthermore there’s a scenario someone is breathing down BA/BCA’s neck, BCA has to prove how solid its assumptions for the 737 MAX program accounting are.
BCA has to control the damage:
As I mentioned before, profits previously recorded by BA/BCA can be subjected to revision (prior period adjustment) since the cost curve (over time) used previously is invalid with the new (& future) labor contract(s).
“Wants to be..”
i want a pony
“Canada’s retaliation for Trump tariffs is biggest concern, says Japan’s Komatsu”
“TOKYO (Reuters) – The top business risk of the Trump presidency for heavy-duty equipment maker Komatsu (OTC:KMTUY) is not the tariffs he has threatened, but Canada’s potential retaliatory duties on American-made mining machines, the head of the Japanese company said.
“The view of a global manufacturer flags the possible knock-on impact of Trump’s pledge for tariffs on imports from Canada, China and Mexico when he takes office, especially if the targets decide to retaliate with trade barriers on their own.
“Komatsu, the world’s second-largest construction machinery company after Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), earns more than a quarter of its sales from North America and employs about 8,000 staff in the United States.
“The risk of retaliatory tariffs by Canada, the largest export destination for the mining equipment Komatsu makes in the United States, is “my biggest concern” when Trump’s second term begins next month, Chief Executive Hiroyuki Ogawa told Reuters.
“We are an exporter in America,” Ogawa said, adding that Komatsu’s U.S. exports have surpassed imports by about $1 billion a year since its 2017 acquisition of Milwaukee-based mining machinery maker Joy Global (NYSE:JOY).
“We’re basing our business on free trade,” Ogawa said. “A tariff war could land a one-two punch on us.”
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/canadas-retaliation-for-trump-tariffs-is-biggest-concern-says-japans-komatsu-3783474
—
There’ll be a similar effect for BA…
And some more on Canada:
“Alberta’s premier responds to Trump’s trolling by saying Canada’s oil helps make America wealthy”
“We are one-tenth the size of the United States so a balanced trade deal would mean per capita we are buying 10 times more from the U.S. than they are buying from us. If that’s his metric we will certainly engage on that,” Hillman told The AP recently.”
“Canada is also the largest foreign supplier of steel, aluminum and uranium to the U.S. and has 34 critical minerals and metals that the Pentagon is eager for.”
“Nearly $3.6 billion Canadian dollars ($2.7 billion) worth of goods and services cross the border each day. Canada is the top export destination for 36 U.S. states.”
https://apnews.com/article/canada-alberta-trump-tariffs-oil-77897bdcb8f04812a627901acbe33add
“EFW re-delivers its first A330P2F aircraft from its Guangzhou facility”
https://www.stattimes.com/air-cargo/efw-re-delivers-its-first-a330p2f-aircraft-from-its-guangzhou-facility-1354038
—
This is in striking contrast to EFW’s recent announcement that it was icing its operations in the US due to persistent personnel quality/training/reliability issues.
Not exactly a good omen for Trump’s re-shoring ambitions.
“Autonomous Avionics: How the Airbus A350-1000 Is Setting New Standards in the Cockpit”
“The Airbus A350-1000 is spearheading the next frontier in avionics: autonomous flight capabilities. The aircraft’s cockpit is equipped with sophisticated systems that blend sensor fusion, real-time data analytics, and AI-driven decision-making, enabling significant automation in navigation, takeoff, and landing.
“While full autonomy remains a long-term goal, the intermediate steps taken by Airbus are already influencing market dynamics. These advanced avionics systems reduce pilot workload, improve safety metrics, and optimize flight efficiency. The financial implications are profound.
“Airlines using the A350-1000 report lower training costs for pilots and improved on-time performance, both of which positively impact operating margins.
“For lessors, the A350-1000’s avionics are a selling point. With the global push for reduced carbon emissions, the A350-1000’s ability to execute highly efficient, AI-optimized flight paths is particularly appealing to airlines under pressure to meet sustainability targets. This has driven up the model’s base value by approximately 8% over the last two years and allowed lessors to secure favorable lease terms even in a competitive market.”
https://www.aviationtoday.com/2024/12/19/autonomous-avionics-how-the-airbus-a350-1000-is-setting-new-standards-in-the-cockpit/
New World Record:
“The crew of China’s Shenzhou-19 spacecraft have set a new world record by completing a marathon nine-hour spacewalk.”
https://x.com/SCMPNews/status/1869257535665901795
Video
https://x.com/SCMPNews/status/1869257535665901795/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1869257535665901795¤tTweetUser=SCMPNews
“Chinese astronauts Cai Xuzhe and Song Lingdong set a new world record for the longest spacewalk, spending over nine hours outside the Tiangong space station.”
https://x.com/timesofindia/status/1869389659010121999
congrats to Comac
COMAC C919 carries its millionth revenue passenger since entering service
“The Chinese-built COMAC C919 narrowbody jet has celebrated carrying its millionth passenger since entering service in May 2023. The landmark occasion was marked in a special ceremony held on December 19. 2024.”
“As of December 19, 2024, COMAC has delivered a total of 14 C919 aircraft to three airlines within China – China Eastern Airlines, Air China, and China Southern Airlines.”
Lufthansa Group has announced that it purchased five more Airbus A350-1000 aircraft, taking its total order book to 15.
“Lufthansa Group said that with its latest order, taking its total A350 aircraft family order book – not backlog – to 75, split between 60 A350-900 and 15 A350-1000 , it is one of the largest customers of the aircraft type globally.”
“The five A350-1000s will be delivered between 2028 and 2030, while Airbus will begin deliveries of the ten A350-1000 aircraft that it purchased in March 2023 in April 2026.”
seems if you want to be long haul global player….you have a A350 fleet. Even Sir Tim eventually figure that out!
That said, American Airlines hasn’t figure it out yet!
Currently 9 Emirates A350s off the line and on the tarmac at Toulouse, undergoing ground/flight tests.
Wanna bet that Tim will be getting a few more frames delivered before New Year?
AB has already delivered 5 A350s this month…plus 2 A330 neos.
—
BA so far appears to have delivered 5 787s from the line this month, and zero from the parking lot.
Where MAXs are concerned, I’m counting only 10 deliveries so far.
Double check your parking lot inventory!
Vietnam Airlines took a delivery 🚚 of a “parking lot” 787-10 in December.
Do be more careful next time !
Air Canada Orders Five New A220s
“The new agreement brings Air Canada’s total A220-300 commitment to 65 aircraft.”
China aviation services market is expected to be the largest by 2043
“China will overtake North America and Europe to become the largest market for aviation services by 2043, with its market value almost tripling from US$23bn in 2024 to US$61bn in 2043 according to Airbus’ latest Global Services Forecast (GSF).”
“By 2043, China will have 11,160 aircraft in service based on Airbus Global Market Forecast, in which 9,520 are new deliveries (including passenger aircraft and freighter), accounting 20% of the global demand.”
so lets do some simple math…..assumption…no new Boeing aircraft deliveries over 20 years to China
Comac…say they get to 6 a month or 72 a year for C919, 4 a month for C909 or 48 a year……..(will not included the C929)…average 120 x 20 years that’s 2400 Comac aircraft…so 9500 new deliveries less that 2400 China produced aircraft….leaves Airbus 7,100 aircraft over 20 years or 355 a year or about 30 a month.
Airbus average production rate over 20 years..say 80 a month for A320, 10 a month for A220 and 10 a month for A350/330…or 100 a month production…so from a 30,000 ft view..China is about 30% of Airbus produciton output
Seems to me, China can live without Boeing deliveries! MAGA “Make Airbus Great Always”
COMAC has previously indicated that it’s aiming for a C919 line rate of 150 per year by 2030.
If the CJ-1000A turbofan is certified soon, there’s no convincing reason why that target can’t be met.
yes, the second FAL is going in for C919..currently they have capacity of 4 a month rate and then add second FAL….probably get you to 10 a month “capacity” by 2027
Of note:
“China’s Avionics Push: COMAC’s Challenge to Western Cockpit Technology”
“”The C919’s avionics suite, developed in collaboration with Western and Chinese firms, features advanced flight management systems, enhanced autopilot capabilities, and next-generation cockpit displays designed for improved pilot situational awareness. By incorporating digital technologies and open architecture, COMAC aims to offer airlines greater customization options while ensuring system scalability for future upgrades.
“This strategy aligns with China’s broader push for self-sufficiency in aerospace technology. Recent geopolitical tensions and export restrictions have motivated COMAC to reduce reliance on Western suppliers for critical avionics components.
“The company is increasingly partnering with Chinese firms, such as the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) and China Electronics Technology Group (CETC) to develop indigenous systems, positioning itself as a key player in a market previously dominated by U.S. and European manufacturers.”
https://www.aviationtoday.com/?p=108032
Potentially another case of shooting themselves in the foot: create a competitor.
COMAC wanted to hit 150 a month by 2028.
China expects annual production capacity of C919 planes to reach 150 in 5 years
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/chinas-comac-expects-reach-annual-production-150-c919-planes-next-5-years-govt-2023-01-12/
I think all bets are off, regarding the aviation industry, for the next 4 years.
The supply chain is linked worldwide, with parts coming from all corners of the globe.
In the best of times, it’s a logistical nightmare. Now with president-elect Musk sticking his grubby fingers into every decision, no manufacturer is going to hit any targets.
Not Boeing. Not Airbus. Not Comac. Engine makers are going to suffer. Everyone is going to lose.
They haven’t even been sworn into power and look at the mess they create.
COMAC has gone to great lengths to insulate itself from western dependency.
Although the C919 was designed in the era of lovey-dovey globalization, COMAC has since been taking (more) steps to make the plane fully domestic.
The key is the CJ-1000A turbofan — which also has variants for the C909 and C929. Once that engine is certified and in production, the last dependency on western parts will be removed.
China is far less technologically dependent on the west than many in the west (want to) grasp.
Trump won’t like this:
“Spain orders 25 more Eurofighter jets, to grow total fleet to 115 aircraft”
“The agreement, which follows a previous contract signed in 2022 for a batch of 20 of the European-made fighter jets, will see the Spanish Eurofighter fleet grow to 115 aircraft. With the first delivery of these new aircraft due in 2030, Airbus states that the jets will “boost Spain’s air-power capabilities and operations while reinforcing its prominent position at the heart of NATO and secure the program’s industrial footprint.” ”
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/spain-orders-25-additional-eurofighter-jets
Spain isn’t interested in the F35.
Neither is France.
Germany has only ordered a limited fleet of F35s — for a specific (nuclear) purpose — and is predominantly relying on the Eurofighter.
Poland has ordered F35s, and is now considering diversifying to Eurofighters.
Not good as regards reducing the US trade deficit with the EU…which is a constant source of annoyance to Don.
Vietnam budget carrier Vietjet considers wet-leasing Chinese aircraft during Tet
“Specifically, the airline plans to wet-lease two COMAC ARJ21 planes from Chengdu Airlines, starting January 15, in order to meet peak demands during next month’s Lunar New Year holiday.”
‘Internal Air Force analysis supports development of a manned, sixth-gen fighter, Breaking Defense has learned. SECAF Kendall tells us there is “value” in a next-gen platform, but it “may be unaffordable.”
https://x.com/michaeldmarrow/status/1870184909136118011
Icon Aircraft shifts some manufacturing to China…
https://x.com/theaircurrent/status/1869840032011563013
Boeing CIO Susan Doniz to Leave Company, CEO Tells Employees
https://x.com/AirEVthingTRNSP/status/1870347950867841478
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/12/21/boeing-cio-susan-doniz-to-leave-company-ceo-tells-employees/
> The departure marks the fifth member of Boeing’s executive council to step down since Ortberg took over as CEO in early August.
> Doniz joined Boeing in 2020 from Australia’s Qantas Airways Ltd., where she had held a similar role since 2017. She’s had more than 25 years of experience at companies such as SAP SE, Aimia Inc. and Procter & Gamble Co.
Stumbled upon this: 👇
Boeing 737 MAX loses its weight advantage?
“The 2017 Boeing ACAP had the MAX-8 OEW at 45.07 tonnes, compared to 41.4 tonnes for the 737-800, per my previous post.
Wiki has the OEW of the A320 CEO as 42.6 tonnes (compared to the 41.4 tonnes for the 737 NG) – advantage 737
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A320_family#Specifications
Wiki has the OEW of the A320 NEO at 44.3 tonnes (compared to the 45.07 tonnes for the 737-8 MAX) – advantage A320
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A320neo_family#Specifications
The NEO thus added 1,7 tonnes to OEW, where the MAX added 3.6 tonnes.
(It feels to me that this is symptomatic of just how much harder Boeing had to work on the 737 than Airbus did on the A320 to complete the re-engine)
Assuming the 3.6 tonne addition is generic across the MAX, that suggests the MAX-9 has an OEW of 48.2 tonnes (the 737-900ER was 44.6 tonnes)
The Wiki figures have the A321 NEO at 50.1 tonnes.
If the MAX-9 is likely to be 48.2 tonnes, only 1.9 tonnes lighter than the A321NEO, then it’s hard to see the MAX-10 being lighter than the A321NEO.”
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1489775&start=150
on a trade related issue
Trump says he might demand Panama hand over canal
“In an evening post on Truth Social, Trump also warned he would not let the canal fall into the “wrong hands,” and he seemed to warn of potential Chinese influence on the passage, writing the canal should not be managed by China.”
then you wonder why the Chinese built a port in Peru (Port of Chancay is a megaship shipping terminal located in Chancay, Peru.
Interesting times ahead.
And to think that some commenters here accuse China of being expansionist…
Such threats will just add extra impetus to get going with competing interoceanic projects (canal and/or rail).
I wonder if he’ll also try to control the Suez canal?
Rules for thee but not for me!
“China’s Sinograin has bought nearly 500,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans this week for shipment in March and April, paying more for U.S. supplies for state reserves rather than buying cheaper Brazilian beans, two U.S. traders familiar with the deals said.”
“Soy prices hit four-year lows this week on trade tensions and amid high U.S. stockpiles and a looming record harvest in Brazil”
👇
May 4, 2018
Bloomberg: China is already canceling U.S. soybean orders
“China has yet to implement tariffs on imports of US soybeans, but the country’s traders are already canceling American shipments…”
“Top 20 Companies Benefitting from Government Subsidies”
“Boeing has received the most government subsidies since 2000, with a total of $15.5 billion.”
“Most of the subsidies have come from Washington State, which has nine preferential tax rates that benefit the aerospace industry.”
—
“Intel has secured over $8 billion in government subsidies, with an additional $7.9 billion on the way from the CHIPS Act.”
—
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Top-20-Companies-Benefitting-from-Government-Subsidies.html
“Boeing has received the most government subsidies since 2000, with a total of $15.5 billion.”
So how does the US (Boeing) bring a successful WTO “prohibited and actionable subsidies” dispute filing against EU (Airbus) and China (Comac)?
See Pedro’s comment above
“Rules for thee but not for me!”
Airbus also won it’s counter-complaint against Boeing — though US media often (conveniently) neglect to point that out.
—
Have a look at the SubsidyTracker website: if you throw in cheap loans, BA has scored $90B in state and federal subsidies since 1991…
Looks like un-elected oligarchs (a.k.a. Rasputins) are already steering US policy…even before Jan. 20.
And this is so-called “rules-based order”?
CNBC: “House Democrats say GOP caved to Musk in funding bill, protecting his China interests”
“House Democrats Jim McGovern and Rosa DeLauro accused Republican colleagues of bending to Elon Musk’s demands in sinking a bipartisan funding bill.
“Congress passed a stopgap funding bill instead on Saturday, but discarded a provision to screen and regulate U.S. investments in China.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/21/house-democrats-say-gop-caved-to-elon-musk-protecting-china-interests.html
—
Makes it somewhat farsical to lecture other countries on corruption, rule of law and democracy.
“Tesla is considered the only foreign company to have a fully owned manufacturing operation in China, with its “Gigafactory” in Shanghai being entirely owned by Tesla”
June 2024
“For the first time ever, Tesla cars have been placed on a Chinese government purchase list, according to state-owned media outlet Paper.cn.”
seems to be a conflict of interest!
“U.S. launches new probe into legacy Chinese chips as tech pressure on Beijing escalates”
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/23/us-launches-new-probe-into-legacy-chinese-chips.html
COMAC courts airlines in Cambodia, Kazakhstan, and Indonesia for C919 orders
“Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China) has been making moves to attract airlines based in Indonesia, Cambodia, and Kazakhstan, to place orders for its C919 narrowbody 158-192 seat aircraft. The move comes as the Chinese planemaker seeks its first orders for the jet outside of mainland China, say sources close to the Shanghai-based company.”
Bloomberg:
“Comac has also recently opened sales offices in Hong Kong and Singapore. It opened its first overseas customer service office in Jakarta in 2023.”
How about the C919 won’t fly outside China without FAA etc certification?
😂
The C909 is already flying to four countries outside China, without FAA cert. That list will steadily expand.
The C919 will follow suit…as will the C929.
Dream on 🙂
The exclusion zone will contract to the US domain.
( and my guess is not even that. )
“Washington on Monday accused China of using “extensive anti-competitive and non-market means, including setting and pursuing market share targets, to achieve indigenization and self-sufficiency”. China’s alleged tactics were designed to achieve dominance of the semiconductor industry in China and on global markets, the USTR said.”
but..
from August 2024
“Two years ago today, President Biden signed the historic and bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act into law investing nearly $53 billion in funding to bring semiconductor supply chains back to the U.S, create jobs, support American innovation, and protect our national security.”
Once again:
“Rules for thee but not for me!”
Who would have thought so? 🤦♂️
WSJ: Raimondo Says Holding Back China in Chips Race Is a ‘Fool’s Errand’
Reason: “Biden’s top trade official admitted that the benefits of tariffs on China are entirely hypothetical. But the costs are very real.”
https://t.co/q85P2sR1X2
China is already producing its own 4nm chips.
Of note: without access to high-end Nvidia GPUs, Chinese AI models are outperforming US models — more performance at lower cost and with less hype.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/17/chinese-ai-models-are-popular-globally-and-are-beating-us-rivals-in-some-areas.html
US restrictions vis-à-vis semiconductors are a complete delusion.
As expected:
“Trump again calls to buy Greenland after eyeing Canada and the Panama Canal”
https://apnews.com/article/trump-greenland-norway-panama-canal-canada-a52858e3075f9b5ad95e78753293fc1f
—
So: get rid of regulation, put tariffs on the whole world, and embark on mass annexation…and more than half of the US electorate voted for this…?
who has more debt as of its GDP?…maybe Greenland can buy parts of the US…maybe a resort in Southern Florida with a golf course
“Greenland’s total debt, including national, municipal, and government-owned company debt, is around 27% of its GDP, with a net debt of approximately 3.7 billion Danish Krone (equivalent to $563 million), which represents 18% of its GDP”
“As of December 19, 2024, the US national debt was $36.17 trillion. This is an increase of $2.30 trillion from 2023. The debt is the amount the federal government has borrowed to cover expenses over time “Debt to GDP ratio
123%” “Debt per person$106,035”
Greenland:
dept: $563 Million
population: 55,800
dept per head (sled dogs excluded) : $99,112
Adam Tooze:
“What seems far more likely is a dysfunctional protectionism, that hurts consumers and has little positive impact on domestic production or on the US macroeconomic balance that will continue to be dominated by large fiscal deficits and a giant issuance of government debt that will be swallowed up by global investors whose excess of dollar earnings is generated by the success of their exports worldwide. In other words, what seems most likely is not a consistent turn to national production, but a nastier and even more unequal continuation of the status quo, with a hollowed out Federal government, increased uncertainty and severely negative repercussions for America’s relations with important international partners.”
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-337-the-stakes-in-the-struggle
“…a giant issuance of government debt that will be swallowed up by global investors…”
Actually, nowadays, only about 23% of US treasuries are held by foreign entities/persons…and, of those, most are now held by private investors as opposed to central banks.
Moreover, China and Japan — the biggest foreign holders — are dumping treasuries in vast amounts.
So, this aspect of the abovementioned “status quo” appears to be crumbling.
https://usafacts.org/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/
Delta to Replace 767 with A330neo on these International Routes
“The airline’s systematic replacement of Boeing 767s with A330neos on long-distance routes signals a significant shift in its fleet composition and operational capabilities.”
“Namibia becomes first foreign operator of China’s Y-9E transport aircraft.”
https://armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2024/namibia-becomes-first-foreign-operator-of-chinas-y-9e-transport-aircraft
China is picking up orders for its defense aircraft from BRICS and Global South countries: Pakistan and Egypt recently ordered Chinese J-10C 4.5-gen fighters, for example, and there’s even talk of a planned new FAL in Egypt to manufacture (200) Chinese J-35 stealth fighters for regional customers.
Drip, drip…
video China Y-9E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snaMQ3V_uQ4
don’t forget about Bangladesh Plans to Buy 16 J-10C Fighter Jets From China..Bangladesh Plans to Buy 16 J-10C Fighter Jets From China
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ya1-X_6jUY
American Airlines is cutting international flights next year — and blaming Boeing
The carrier said it is changing its overseas schedule because it won’t have its 787 Dreamliners on time
They should have bought A350….. what about those 24 years old 777-200?
Spirit AeroSystems sets date for shareholder vote on Boeing acquisition
“In a Friday U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing, Spirit said its board had set Jan. 31 as the date for the vote, which will be conducted virtually”
“China does more with less while the US does less with more.”
Whoa united front must have recruited “foreign agent” 😁
“The worst thing is that literally everything that I could buy in China as a consumer was just such high quality stuff, such insanely high quality stuff!
… well everything is made in China in the U.S. anyway. Yeah, but they’re choosing the cheapest stuff, the companies are bringing in the cheapest stuff they can get, they don’t care about quality, they don’t care!”
American girl explains the truth
https://x.com/Kanthan2030/status/1870630375422386362
its true…back in the early 2000’s I was in China for a month. One evening, I was waiting outside a restaurant for a ride back to the hotel. This 10 year old kid walk by and had a more advance cell phone than we had in the US at the time
As for safe, in 2017 I was spoke at aerospace conference in Shanghai At night my wife and I took the subway in from airport to the tourist section….clean, safe and no issues Old people on subway had more advance cell phones than we did in the west
Quality wise you get what the manufacturer is paid for.
And that is pennies for stuff offered in the US.
The real profit chain starts to klink in the US : import, whoelsale and retail.
Years ago I bought SAW filters for chirp transform spectrometers from a chinese manufacturer.
super price, excellent quality, perfectly matched. ( and I gnawed my fingernails from payment to delivery 🙂
Oh snap!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GffUjDya8AES3AQ?format=jpg&name=medium
hehe!
Here we have public servants sitting in a good income for zero productivity environment using their idle time for furthering their hobby interests ( like pushing an imbecile unworkable woke and/or green agenda )
Also furthering their hobby interests; by trying to turn back the clock and taking away rights from people, forcing right-wing christian extremist views and lining up behind a convicted felon.
I agree.
Welcome to the nightmare called democracy: give voting power to a largely uninformed, unenlightened and uneducated populace…and hope for the best 🙈
just a fyi
“In 2014, Beijing’s literacy rate was 98.52%, which is comparable to developed countries”
“Beijing’s compulsory education system is among the best in the world: in 2018, 15-year-old students from Beijing (together with Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu) outperformed all of the other 78 participating countries in all categories (math, reading, and science) in the Program for International Student Assessment”
@DP
“…which is comparable to developed countries…”
Except for the US, where literacy is only 79%, and 54% of adults have a literacy below sixth-grade level.
https://www.crossrivertherapy.com/research/literacy-statistics#:~:text=Top%2010%20U.S.%20Literacy%20Rate,older%20are%20illiterate%20in%202022.
EFW recently decided to stall operations at its plants in the US, citing the inbility of workers to cope with basic training and instruction manuals. The company is instead concentrating on its operations in Europe and Asia.
you can’t be more wrong than that.
the act of betrayal is done by the “Administratura”
in lying to the sovereign.
Be that royalty or the voting people.
The path to war and the other assorted ways of achieving the destruction of the commons in the last three decades
was done by filtering and fictionalising information provided to politics and the public. Leaders From Behind.
I think this is relevant in the current discourse, dynamism in startups, hi-tech manufacturing in China vs US
https://x.com/mmjukic/status/1871325556957987190
If you don’t want to register, let me know, I’m going to post the whole thread upon request.
“AirAsia May Order 100 New Aircraft, in Talks with Airbus, COMAC and Embraer”
“CEO Tony Fernandes confirms the company has opened discussions with Airbus, Embraer, and China’s COMAC, The New Straits Times reported.”
https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/2024/12/24/airasia-in-talks-with-airbus-comac-embraer-for-new-order/
—
No mention of any interest in Boeing — gosh, I wonder why?
Major Asian airline looks for new aircraft to Canada/Europe and two BRICS countries — The Don won’t like that at all!
Poor Pegasus should have done its homework before falling for empty promises:
“Türkiye’s AJet seeks 36 aircraft to compensate Boeing delays”
“AJet (VF, Istanbul Sabiha Gökcen) is in talks with lessors to source additional aircraft in 2025 to sustain its ambitious growth path despite Boeing delivery delays, chief executive Kerem Sarp told Reuters.
“”Airbus aircraft [are] mainly in focus. We are looking at leasing and purchasing options,” he outlined.
“The Turkish low-cost carrier, a recently spun-off subsidiary of Turkish Airlines, planned to take thirty-six B737 MAX jets in 2025. While Karp did not detail the severity of the delays, he admitted that not all of them were likely to enter into service next year. As the carrier plans to expand to a fleet of 200 narrowbodies by 2033, it needs an alternative source of aircraft.”
https://www.ch-aviation.com/news/148507-trkiyes-ajet-seeks-36-aircraft-to-compensate-boeing-delays
just a fyi
“And China is succeeding. The country has now overtaken Japan as the world’s largest auto exporter.”
We’ll be getting lots more statistics like that.
Measured by PPP GDP, China’s economy is already much larger than that of the US — $37B vs. $29B.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
just a fyi
“If you’re feeling relieved that you haven’t been a recent Boeing shareholder, I can’t blame you — because if you’d parked, say, $10,000 in Boeing five years ago, you’d now have an investment worth $5,340 or so. That’s a total drop of nearly 47% and an average annual decline of about 12%.”
“China Eastern Airlines has planned the COMAC C919’s first-ever scheduled service outside of mainland China, with the carrier scheduling flights to Hong Kong International Airport (HKG) starting next year.”
“The services are set to launch in 2025, with the airline switching from an Airbus A321 to the C919 to operate flight MU721 and the return itinerary, MU722. This will mark the type’s first-ever scheduled services out of mainland China.”
It looks like 👇:
Translated
“Starlux Airlines orders five more A350Fs, with deliveries set to begin in 2027, bringing total to 10”
https://x.com/skybudget/status/1872808367439347952
Dying’s easy, math is HARD!!
https://x.com/KingKong9888/status/1871819995237536004
[Comment deleted as irrelevant to the post.]
“Since 1998 Chengdu alone has flown four completely new manned combat aircraft, three of which are in service. The entire US industry has produced two of which one is in service. Meanwhile…
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gfzv7J-WEAAUICB?format=png&name=small
https://x.com/ValkStrategy/status/1872635358674104675
Very extensive article from the BBC:
“‘It’s still in shambles’: Can Boeing come back from crisis?”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gxvkq109ko
BRICS news:
“Thailand accepts Russia’s invitation to join BRICS”
“Thailand has accepted Russia’s invitation to become a BRICS partner state, Thai Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nikondet Phalangkun said at a press briefing on Dec. 26.”
“”The government believes that joining the economic alliance will carry benefits for Thailand across a number of sectors.
“”(M)embership in BRICS will benefit Thailand by promoting trade, investment, food and energy security,” Phalangkun said.”
https://kyivindependent.com/thailand-accepts-russias-invitation-to-join-brics/
Note: the invitation is to become a Partner state…not yet to become a Member state. But that can follow at a later stage.
FT: Boeing battles brain drain as engineers chase allure of space
this should come to no one surprise
Tesla Emerges Among Top Employers Of H-1B Visa Holders
“Tesla, headed by Elon Musk, was among the leading employers of new foreign-born scientists and engineers in FY 2024, according to H-1B visa data. When combined with an analysis showing more than 30,000 companies gained approval for at least one H-1B professional in FY 2024, it helps illustrate the importance of hiring high-skilled foreign nationals to a wide range of employers”
Wow
“The aircraft involved appears to be a Boeing 737-800, which is the older out-of-production generation of the 737, not the current generation 737 Max 8.”
https://x.com/jonostrower/status/1873172214306291880
“One of the first photos from the crash site of Jeju Air Flight 2216 in South Korea. At least 175 people were on board – Yonhap”
https://x.com/BNONews/status/1873171307833246093
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gf7XRZgWYAA5XmG?format=jpg&name=large
“Horrifying footage emerging of a Jeju Air Boeing 737-800 (not a Max) with 175 onboard involved in a crash at Muan International Airport in South Korea — video shows the aircraft attempting a ‘belly landing’ (without its landing gear extended) before impacting the perimeter wall”
https://x.com/AlexInAir/status/1873176582480912728
Lots of things appear to have gone wrong prior to the landing — disappeared briefly from the radar, speed too high, flaps not extended, landing gear not extended…wondering what the hell the underlying cause was. Looks like multiple hydraulic failures, in any case.
Not sure if this report is reliable but worths to keep an eye.
The Korea Times:
“The Jeju Air plane that crashed while attempting to land at Muan International Airport on Dec. 29 was confirmed to have struck a flock of birds during its approach. The collision triggered an engine fire, filling the cabin with smoke and toxic fumes, and prompting the crew to attempt an emergency landing.”
Do you have a link for this story, please?
@ Scott Hamilton
Not sure exactly what link @Pedro was citing from, but this Korea Times link contains essentially the same info:
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/12/113_389365.html
“Jeju Air Flight 2216, which crashed at Muan International Airport on Sunday, claiming a total of 179 lives, is suspected to have resulted from a bird strike that disabled the landing gear”
“According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) and firefighting authorities, the aircraft likely experienced a malfunction due to birds being sucked into the engine during descent.”
“This malfunction may have disrupted the hydraulic system that controls the landing gear”
“Professor Kim Kyu-wang of Hanseo University said, “Sparks observed from the engine are strong evidence of a bird strike.””
“Professor Kim Kwang-il of Silla University said, “The pilot likely judged that attempting a landing was safer than trying to stay airborne without engine power.””
“Experts believe that the fire and toxic fumes entering the cabin accelerated the need for an emergency landing. Additionally, the failure to burn off fuel beforehand likely worsened the fire risk.”
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/12/113_389365.html
Hi @Scott
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/12/113_389343.html
So there is so much potentially wrong with these statements:
First, I don’t believe the 737 has fuel dumping capabilities.
Second: In the one video posted showing the compressor stall, the engine was not on fire. It’s not unknown for smoke and fumes to enter into the cabin with an engine disruption, but that doesn’t mean the situation becomes critical.
Third, there are checklists in the event of a fire to prevent things from getting worse. It’s hard to believe that the circumstances deteriorated so fast from a bird strike.
Finally, on the video the right engine thrust reverser did look deployed, but this was the engine with the bird strike based on the compressor stall. The left engine reverser did not appear deployed. Why not?
I wish these “experts” really knew what they were talking about. Let’s wait for the FDR and CVR to give us the facts.
@ Scott Hamilton
I think we can assume that much information is being distorted by mis-translation, with some heresay and embellishment also in the mix.
—
I’m wondering if the situation has any similarties to UA232, in which hydraulic control was lost as a result of an uncontained engine failure.
Regarding the 737 (archive link):
“…a destructive engine failure, combined with the failure of the engine cowling to contain the resulting debris, could easily be the cause of a multiple-hydraulic-system failure. For instance, an uncontained turbine rotor burst in the #1 engine would almost certainly rupture at least some part of the A system’s engine-driven hydraulic pump, would likely breach both the A and standby lines in the #1 thrust reverser, and could easily penetrate the B and standby lines powering the left wing’s leading-edge high-lift devices, leaving the aircraft with one engine and no hydraulics.”
“This would seem to require the aircraft to attempt a landing at very high speed while maintaining a fairly steep bank angle until just before touchdown, and I don’t see how it would be possible to go around without the increases in engine thrust and vehicle angle of attack causing a loss of lateral/directional control, or to avoid a high-speed excursion from the side of the runway immediately following touchdown.”
https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/79399/how-controllable-is-the-737-in-single-engine-manual-reversion-flight-is-it-cont
The area around the Korean airport in question is a wetland, full of large migratory birds. Ingestion of one or more large birds could easily cause an uncontained engine failure.
To tout the airline involved is the “largest South Korean low-cost airline with an impeccable safety record (like the other Korean airlines)” sounds tone deaf today IMO.
“impeccable safety record”
it is factual.
history is not now.
Q: cockpit filled with smoke too?
( not with the same engine but we had this issues recently ( MAX )
Honestly KE doesn’t rank amongst the top airlines on safety.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_incidents_and_accidents
We are in a fog of information, not sure if this is accurate:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GgDRSJvXUAAkXnY?format=jpg&name=900×900
Is it part of pilot training in sim to lower the gears manually??
> “Problem is the awkward location of the manual gear extension, and the fact you’d need to lift the access hatch up to gain access, which is poor design, especially in a life-or-death situation. The Boeing 737 apart from some modernisations has hardly changed since 1967.”
https://x.com/AurumUsagi/status/1873494636054135000
>> “.. the location and design of the manual gear extension panel are a bit weird, making things even more complicated when it counts.”
https://x.com/business/status/1873692499484549521
“On the Jeju Air crash: This is one of those accidents where, probably in the next 48-72 hours, there’s going to be some new curveball fact that’s going to completely reshape our understanding of what happened.”
https://x.com/jonostrower/status/1873743236747112698
Bloomberg reporter
“Bloomberg: The pilot, considered an experienced captain with close to 7,000 hours of active duty, issued a mayday emergency call minutes after the control tower warned of a bird strike.”
https://x.com/Rover829/status/1873399535336399276
“Today the CR450-AF and -BF sub-series has been officially unveiled by CRRC in Beijing. Both with a design speed of 450kph and a rated service speed of 400kph. First, third and right of fourth pics is the CR450AF second and left of fourth pics is the CR450BF. (1/5)”
https://x.com/JRUrbaneNetwork/status/1873214624562332001
Making Amtrak Great Again:
Here’s the fastest train in the US — just one line, and the train can manage 240km/h over a stretch of 50km.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acela
Read a post some time ago asking why China can’t follow the U.S. flying around in (75-seat??) RJ (that poster is supposed to have lived over there for years, sigh). 🤦♂️
Remember this, from like a decade ago, and we now have the luxury to look back with 20/20 hindsight:
FT: China bets on even more railway construction to fuel economic growth
Sen. Cardin says Trump’s tough talk on Panama Canal could push allies to China, Russia
“I don’t know what the president-elect is saying in regards to how sincere he is, but I can tell you, it does raise questions globally as to whether we’re a reliable partner,” Cardin said. “And it really feeds into Russia and China appeal to other countries as to whether they need to make alliances with — with Russia and China, whether America will be there for them globally.””
Already happening in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan.
Even the Brits are talking about it:
“Why UK needs to realise America is an unreliable ally and the ‘special relationship’ is over”
“Whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the US election, America is becoming an unstable, unreliable, and more self-interested country”
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/uk-us-special-relationship-donald-trump-america-unreliable-ally-4825989
—
One wonders if Trump has ever asked himself exactly *why* multiple countries are de-dollarizing?
“One wonders if Trump has ever asked himself exactly *why* multiple countries are de-dollarizing?”
What emanates into the outer media sphere seems to indicate
that (not only US) politicians live in an impermeable bubble
protected from the real world. Spoon fed from carefully crafted synthetic information.
Another view could be “drowning every partner before going under …”.
Unfortunately even some “wise” men are seeing the strategic value of land grabs. How is this different from those Empires of previous centuries? An empire of toxic hypocrisy.
Trump is a poor person’s idea of a rich man, a weak person’s idea of a strong man, and a stupid person’s idea of a smart man.
(Reuters) – U.S. planemaker Boeing is on track to be the biggest loser of 2024 in the Dow Jones Index, tumbling 32% as it bounced from one crisis to another.
Rival Airbus rose more than 11% for the year, and the benchmark S&P 500 gained more than 23% during 2024.
Boeing’s shares opened the year at $257.50. However, a mid-air cabin panel blowout on Jan. 5 aboard a recently-delivered 737 MAX operated by Alaska Airlines triggered investigations and a temporary grounding of the popular single-aisle airplane.