By the Leeham News Team

Dec 9, 2024, © Leeham News: The global aerospace sector is facing significant uncertainty as geopolitical tensions, including trade disputes and security concerns, weigh heavily on sections of the industry.

China Southern Airlines plans to sell its 787-8s, but will hang onto its 787-9s. How Chinese airlines proceed from here is not certain. Credit: Boeing

A new administration in Washington (DC), and the impact that may have on the Ukraine war and relations with China, alongside a rapidly evolving situation in the Middle East, will likely alter the balance further in 2025.

A lot has already been baked in, but the industry is still grappling with how each scenario may unfold.

“I've been feeling for a while that Boeing's prospects in China are pretty bleak,” says Bruce McClelland, a senior analyst at market analysts Teal Group, when asked how he expects the next few months will play out for OEMs.

“[Chinese customers] will probably take delivery of a few 737s, and maybe some 787s that are currently on order or may have been built already But I think that China, increasingly, for a number of reasons, doesn't necessarily need all the Boeing planes that it might have thought it would need.”