Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing still hopes for 737-7 certification this year, 737-10 next year and an Amended Type Certificate for the 777X June 5, 2023
- Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 15. Airframe for lower Induced drag June 2, 2023
- Boeing’s Calhoun: Be patient for a new airplane June 1, 2023
- Embraer gears for growth June 1, 2023
- Boeing SC construction underway for second 787 final assembly line May 31, 2023
Pontifications: Skyline backlog suggests higher production rate than Boeing targets for 777X
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By Scott Hamilton
By Scott Hamilton
April 17, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing’s skyline for the 777X, reported by Cirium, suggests there will be a need to boost production higher than the company’s target of 4/mo by 2025/2026. The delivery stream data is good news for Boeing, which doesn’t detail this information. Boeing took a billion-plus dollar write-off on the program, which has been marred by delays, engine issues, and certification questions.
Boosting the production rate beyond 4/mo will be an important contributor to Boeing’s financial recovery in the second half of this decade. At its peak, Boeing produced 8.3 777s a month, or 100 a year.
The current production rate of the program is two per month, for the 777-200LRF. Boeing’s website says the combined rate for the 777 Classic and the 777X is three per month. But a year ago, Boeing said it was suspending production of the X through 2023. Corporate communications would not comment on the contradiction, citing the quiet period before the 1Q earnings call on April 26.
Air India’s order for 10 Boeing 777Xs in February (among more than 200 other Boeing aircraft) is welcome news for the slow-selling airliner.
The airline’s orders haven’t been listed yet in Boeing’s running tally of orders, meaning the firm contract hasn’t been signed.
Summary
- Data shows deliveries of 777-200LRF drops dramatically in 2025.
- Production rate goal of 4/mo by 2025/26.
- Backlog shows demand for higher production rate.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 8P. Propulsion advances
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 14, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 8. Propulsion advances. It discusses in detail the next-generation propulsion and what efficiency improvements to expect from different technological advancements.
The production cost trap for eVTOL upstarts
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 13, 2023, © Leeham News: Last week, we gave the example of a new propulsion principle 30-seat airliner as a project that would face the liquidity strain of initial production costs. We continue today with a look at the leading eVTOL projects, where development costs are passing $1bn and growing.
What will be the cash burn before these projects generate positive cash flow from serial production sales and services? We use our production cost model to analyze the situation.
Figure 1. Our generic eVTOL uses an early rendering of the Vertical VX4 as an illustration. Source: Vertical Aerospace.
Summary:
- VTOL projects promise early payback of invested capital.
- Our production cost model says otherwise.
MRO companies report double-digit growth in RBC survey
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By Bryan Corliss
April 12, 2023, © Leeham News: – MRO operators foresee double-digit growth in the rest of 2023 – as long as they can get the spare parts they need.
That’s the finding from RBC Capital Market’s latest quarterly survey of commercial aerospace MRO companies.
“The outlook remains robust,” RBC analyst Ken Herbert wrote, in a report sent to clients this week. Based on the survey results, RBC projected overall MRO sales and parts purchases increased 18% in the first quarter, with the strongest growth in Asia and Europe.
Much of that was driven by the engine market, where demand is up 20%, he wrote.
However, “spare part availability and material lead times, followed by ongoing labor shortages, remain the key risks to the 2023 outlook,” Herbert wrote.
The survey gathered responses from about 40 global MRO companies, parts distributors and OEMs in early April.
- Engines powering confidence
- Six-month outlook ‘bullish’ for spare parts
- Supply chain, labor remain key risks
MCAS, The Aircraft Certification Act and the unintended consequences of Congressional Intervention
Third in a Series
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By the Leeham News team
Boeing whistle blower Ed Pierson testified about issues surrounding the 737 MAX following the two crashes that killed 346 people. New York Times photo.
April 10, 2023, © Leeham News: Action by the US Congress following the Boeing 737 MAX crisis resulted in a host of new laws intended to fix shortcomings in regulations that contributed to the crisis. Sections in the legislation involved safety reporting and Whistle Blower protections. The Act provides for the establishment of Safety Management Systems.
But as we’ve seen in our series, there have been shortcomings in the legislation. These sections are no different.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 7P. Propulsion
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 7, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 7. Propulsion. It discusses in detail the next-generation propulsion systems and what to expect from their possible increase in performance and efficiency.
The production cost trap for upstarts
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 6, 2023, © Leeham News: The last five years have been among the busiest in aeronautical history, with announcements of new aircraft and VTOLs based on greener propulsion technologies. The public focus has been on the hurdle for these projects to achieve regulator certification, how long this will take, and how much it will cost. We have hundreds of experts publishing articles on the subject.
But there is another hurdle as large as certification for these projects: the initial production cost. It’s just that the knowledge about this more difficult-to-understand phase is poor among the experts. But, looking at history, the majority of new airliner entrants die during early production, not during development.
Why? We use our production cost model to explain.
Figure 1. Heart Aerospace ES-30; a typical startup project. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary:
• Startup projects fight to get the investments for development.
• Little do they know this is only halfway to success.
Examining the FAA’s Organization Designation Authority (ODA)
Part 2 of a Series
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By the Leeham News Team
April 3, 2023, © Leeham News: Organization Designation Authorization (ODA) has been a critical relationship between Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration. In the wake of the 737 MAX crisis, the FAA rescinded Boeing’s ODA. It was restored, but the FAA retains oversight.
The absence of ODAs continues to slow Boeing’s return to normalcy.
ODA: What is it, why it exists, and what is changing?
Long ago, when aircraft were far simpler than today, FAA inspectors would validate the airworthiness of products using well-defined existing bodies of knowledge. FAA engineers
could use sheet metal skills and their electrical and mechanical engineering backgrounds to monitor and assist in the certification of more and more complex products.
With the birth of the jet age, aerodynamics became much more complex and software was applied to airframes in the form of advanced avionics and fly-by-wire flight control programming.
The industry started to outpace the skills of the regulators and it got even more complex with the advent of composite structures. Things that weren’t on the radar of the regulations—and the regulators–became important as time went by.
Flammability standards for cabin and cockpit materials created a huge need for oversight. So did the increased cockpit automation and how the human interfaced with the machine.
The FAA fell behind, for a couple of reasons.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 6P. Fuselage manufacturing
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By Bjorn Fehrm
March 31, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 6. Fuselage manufacturing. It discusses in detail how to manufacture a non-circular fuselage that avoids fatigue problems.
MCAS, The Aircraft Certification Act and the unintended consequences of Congressional Intervention
First in a Series of Articles
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By the Leeham News team
March 30, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing is suffering delays getting the 737-7, 737-10, and 777X certifications completed.
Airbus delayed the certification of the A321XLR over the design of its integral fuel tank. Boeing has gotten the brunt of the blame for its delays, a stance not without some merit. Airbus is fully responsible for the design and integration of the XLR fuel tank. But, unlike Boeing, less has been said about the certification delays of the XLR than the Boeing aircraft.
These delays may not be completely the fault of the manufacturers.
A brief history. We know that two 737 MAXes were lost due to the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) overpowering the flight crew’s ability to hand fly the airplane, although there were contributing factors. Congress got involved and demanded that the industry refocus on the safety of the flying public. The end result was the creation and passage of the Aircraft Certification, Safety and Accountability Act (ACSAA). This legislation mandated changes to how the Federal Aviation Administration oversees the manufacture of Transport Category Aircraft and set timelines for implementation.
We also need to remember that the industry is much larger than Boeing and Airbus. All manufacturers from those building agricultural aircraft and piston-powered helicopters and bizjets all the way through to Large Tier 1 subcontractors such as Spirit Aerospace and avionics manufacturers must respond to these changes. The Act affects everybody.
The addition of EICAS
We have seen references to the act and how it set a timeline for a monitoring program called Engine Indicating and Crew Alerting System, or EICAS, and its implementation. A deadline of last December was included in the ACSAA, adopted two years before. The inclusion of EICAS was adopted on the assumption Boeing would certify the MAX 7 and MAX 10 before the deadline. Exempting these two MAXes at the time was approved because the MAX 8 and MAX 9 were already certified without EICAS, and cockpit commonality was considered important among the four types.
But Boeing was unable to complete certification of the MAX 7 and MAX 10 in time. Steeped in controversy, Congress in January continued the exemption to September this year.
Certification by the deadline of the MAX 10, the last in the family, was always deemed a challenge because the -10 hadn’t entered flight testing at the time of the legislation’s approval. But the MAX 7 was well into its flight testing. People couldn’t understand why Boeing was unable to certify the MAX 7 before the end of last year.
An analysis by LNA lifts the veil on this mystery.