Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 4. Propulsive efficiency April 19, 2024
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
Managing supply chain stress continues
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 9, 2024, © Leeham News: The COVID-19 pandemic impact on aerospace and its supply chain was deep and long lasting. The airframe and engine manufacturers haven’t fully recovered. Part of the reason is that the supply chain hasn’t fully recovered, either.
LNA attended the Aviation Forum in Hamburg, Germany, last month. On the sidelines of the event, we met with Jurgen Westermeier, the chief procurement officer for Airbus. We discussed the supply chain and other issues. The following is a transcript of this interview. It has been edited for space and clarity.
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Outlook 2024: Embraer’s continued recovery
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By Bjorn Fehrm
January 8, 2024, © Leeham News: Embraer was hit by a double whammy before and during COVID. The non-closure of the merger of Boeing’s and Embraer’s Commercial Aircraft Divisions and the halving of its E-Jet deliveries during COVID. The year that passed marked the recovery from the extra cost and effort of the non-merger and an increase in E-Jet deliveries and orders.
It was also a progress year for the EVE eVTOL venture, with Embraer finalizing design and starting prototype production. Despite the EVE lagging behind other programs by about a year, the customers believe it’s one the most viable programs. Eve doubles the preorders of the nearest competitors.
The past year will also be seen as the break-trough year for the KC-390, Embraer’s bet to replace the venerable Lockheed-Martin C-130 military airlifter. The customer list went from three to five, with more country air forces in serious negotiations for the KC-390.
Summary:
- The E-Jets are trending back to normal volumes with better margins.
- EVE is the best-selling eVTOL, as operators trust Embraer’s knowledge and support.
- The KC-390 is on its way to capture a big slice of the C-130 Hercules replacement marker.
Outlook 2024: Boeing needs a boring year in 2024
By Dan Catchpole
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Jan. 4, 2024 © Leeham News: Boeing’s priorities in 2024 are clear: get the job done on time and without drama, and don’t cause any scandals. In short, it needs a boring year. However, to do that, the aerospace giant has to overcome several obstacles.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes has to increase production rate goals, sign a new labor contract and help suppliers along. That means going against Boeing management’s cultural predilection for extracting concessions from unions and contractors.
Defense is a mess, and there’s little reason to think it will improve much this year. Several fixed-cost programs are bleeding money. Boeing is competing for three major United States Department of Defense programs, but it is not favored to win any of them. This year, leadership is expected to focus on controlling costs.
A new position of executive vice president and chief operating officer for The Boeing Co. was created last month. Stephanie Pope, previously CEO of Boeing Global Services, was named to fill this slot. She’s an unknown to some customers and hasn’t run a company approaching the size of Boeing. She’ll have to prove herself in this new position of greater responsibilities than she’s ever had.
Related Articles
- Boeing files for permits to increase capacity of Charleston 787 plant to produce 14 a month. Charleston Post and Courier.
- Charleston has room to increase 787 production. LNA, November 2020.
- 2024 will be key year for Boeing labor relations. LNA, November 2020.
Summary
- BCA has to smoothly increase production rates.
- Sign a new contract with Machinists.
- Staunch the bleeding at Boeing Defense, Space and Security.
Outlook 2024: European airline consolidation
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By Gordon Smith
January 3, 2024, © Leeham News: Consolidation is certainly in the air. Even before the shock announcement on December 3 that Hawaiian and Alaska are planning to tie the knot, the industry was gripped by the ‘will-they, won’t they’ saga of the proposed JetBlue and Spirit deal.
Although it’s US carriers that have been making headlines, the European airline market is experiencing its own flurry of mergers and acquisitions. This is a topic LNA covered at length pre-pandemic (Our backgrounder is available here).
At the time of this writing, big changes are happening at three of the continent’s best-known flag carriers. Significant shareholdings in ITA Airways (formerly Alitalia), TAP Air Portugal, and SAS Scandinavian Airlines are changing hands, with Europe’s aviation supergroups spying an opportunity to expand their respective empires.
Tapping into the latest data provided to LNA from aviation data analysts Cirium, we can get a better understanding of what these changes could mean for existing fleets and upcoming airliner deliveries.
Outlook 2024: Expectations growing at Airbus
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By Gordon Smith
January 2, 2024, © Leeham News: Many businesses start to wind down operations as the holiday season approaches – but for the big OEMs, the year-end usually means a sprint finish. Airbus is no exception.
Speaking to investors in early November, CEO Guillaume Faury reconfirmed the company’s earnings target for 2023 and sounded optimistic about the prospect of meeting its delivery goal of “around 720” aircraft for the calendar year: “We think we are well-placed to deliver around 161 planes to fulfill the guidance. For those deliveries, we obviously have a high degree of visibility on parts, including engines,” he said.
Although the official tally for 2023 is not likely to be published until next week, the latest figures from November offer valuable insight into progress towards the goal. In a December 5 update, the OEM revealed that it delivered 64 aircraft during the previous month, bringing the year-to-date total to 623 examples. This left 97 units to be handed over before the start of 2024.
Re-engining the Boeing 767, Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 21, 2023, © Leeham News: We are looking at a re-engine of the 767, a move that Boeing is considering to avoid a production stop after 2027. The present 767 engines don’t pass emission regulations introduced by the FAA, EASA, and other regulators for production and delivery beyond 2027.
We looked at what airframe modifications are necessary to house more efficient engines last week; now, we use our Aircraft Performance and Cost model to look at the economics of the original 767 versus a re-engined one.
Summary:
- New, more environmentally friendly engines give the 767 better fuel economics.
- The Cash Operating Costs improvement is affected by higher engine maintenance costs and higher underway and airport fees as a re-engined 767 is a heavier aircraft.
Embraer’s EVE brings some reality to UAM/eVTOL sector
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By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 18, 2023, © Leeham News: There are hundreds of “alternative energy” concepts under study for commercial aviation and a new air taxi industry. Most will fail to prove technically feasible or obtain the funding required to successfully bring the ideas to market and production.
A few concepts are based on reality. EVE is one of them.
EVE is an air taxi concept floated by principal owner Embraer.
Embraer’s EVE urban air mobility vehicle. Credit: EVE.
During a media briefing last month, Johann Bordais, EVE’s CEO, said the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concept for EVE is a spin-off from an idea Embraer had in 2017. EVE was later spun off, while Embraer retains a majority stake.
“We became independent because we understand that we need to be agile, and go faster because the air mobility revolution was happening already,” Bordais said. “We needed to get moving. We also needed to get some funds and that’s why we also had a SPAC and we merged with Zanite.” SPAC stands for Special Purpose Acquisition Company.
EVE went public on May 10, 2022. With added funding, EVE began production earlier this year of the prototype.
Bordais said Embraer’s 54 years of legacy sets EVE apart from other concepts.
“It’s about knowing what we’re talking about. It’s not about just having prototypes flying around the cities. It’s about the whole ecosystem,” he said. “It’s about also the know-how.”
Re-engining the Boeing 767, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 14, 2023, © Leeham News: We are looking at a re-engine of the 767, a move that Boeing is considering to avoid a production stop after 2027. The present 767 engines don’t pass emission regulations introduced by FAA, EASA, and other regulators for production and delivery beyond 2027.
We have described the history of the 767 and the key data of the different variants in last week’s article. Now, we look at what airframe modifications are necessary to house more efficient engines and what consequences these bring.
Summary:
- New, more environmentally friendly engines for the 767 mean changes to the landing gear and structures to house larger and heavier engines.
- For the payload capacity to stay the same a deeper grab in the 767-400 toolbox is necessary than just adopting the landing gear.
Embraer’s C-390 builds momentum; civilian freighter pondered
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By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 11, 2023, © Leeham News: Embraer’s flagship defense program, the KC/C-390 finally took off this year. Orders began rolling in, after a long drought and cancellations by the Brazilian government that cast doubt over the viability of the program. This month, an order for an undisclosed number of C-390s were announced with South Korea. Embraer is in contention for an order for around 80 transports from India.
Brazil, Portugal, Hungary, the Netherlands, Austria, and the Czech Republic have ordered the C-390. Some are in NATO configuration.
Embraer C-390 Millennium. Credit: Embraer.
The C-390 Millenium also comes in a tanker version, the KC-390, The twin-jet is about the size of a Boeing 737 dimensionally and a fuselage cross-width about the diameter of a Boeing 767. It is the Brazilian company’s largest aircraft. Its closest competitor is the Lockheed Martin C-130J.
The C-390 and the single-engine propeller trainer, the Super Tucano, are the defense unit’s to leading programs. In a media briefing last month, Bosco da Costa Jr, President, and CEO of Embraer Defense & Security, said the company developed more than 20 models of various types since Embraer was formed 54 years ago.
In 2017, Embraer and Boeing proposed a joint venture by which Embraer Commercial Aircraft (ECA) would divest from the Group into Boeing Brasil. Boeing would own 80% of the JV and Embraer would own 20%. A JV for the KC-390, with a 51%-49% in favor of Embraer would provide EMB with Boeing’s marketing heft to market the then-stalled sales of the tanker-transport. Both JVs were terminated by Boeing in April 2020 before the combination could be consummated. Since then, Embraer agreed with US defense contractor L3 Harris to help market the airplane.
Re-engining the Boeing 767
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 7, 2023, © Leeham News: We wrote last week that Boeing is considering re-engining the 767 to avoid a production stop after 2027. The 767 is still an interesting aircraft for companies flying cargo and for the US Air Force, which is taking delivery of the tanker version KC-46A for years to come.
The problem is that all the 767 versions are using engines from the 1970s (GE CF6, PW4000, RB211), and as the FAA has accepted the ICAO emission rules from 2017, the production of the 767 with these engines has to stop after 2027. As reported last week, Beoing is looking at re-engining the 767 to avoid a production stop.
We use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to look at the different possible configurations with new engines and model their performance data and operating economics.
Summary:
- The Boeing 767 needs new engines if it shall be produced after 2027.
- While the engine candidate is clear, the rest of a re-engined 767 can be configured in several ways. We look at what different configurations bring in operational performance.