Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Slow production ramp up, international sanctions slow C919 progress September 9, 2024
- Boeing, IAM reach tentative agreement on new contract September 8, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 23. Development risks. September 6, 2024
- If a strike occurs, here’s what Boeing can do September 5, 2024
- China banks on C919, but numbers say it still needs Boeing September 2, 2024
Restoring operations of the 737 MAX
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 1, 2020, ©. Leeham News: Boeing and its customer airlines have 837 MAX airliners that shall get back in the air. After the FAA and ANAC, Brazil’s regulator, have stated the conditions, the work can begin. EASA and Transport Canada will follow with eventual modifications on what needs to be done.
There can be no slip-ups when the 737 MAX flies again. Boeing and the airlines know this; hence there is no room for hurried work or compromises. It will take two years to get the job done, according to Boeing.
Boeing 737 MAX planes stored at Boeing Field. Source: Wikipedia/SounderBruce
Boeing’s second quarter of 2020; cutting production as revenue halves due to MAX grounding and COVID-19
July 29, 2020, © Leeham News: Boeing presented its results for the second quarter of 2020 today. The company revenue is halved compared with the last second quarter with full 737 MAX production, 2Q2018. The reported loss was $3bn but the real loss, masked by program accounting, is close to double this number.
Boeing will now cut production of the cash cow 787 to less than half the pre-COVID rate, producing six planes per month instead of 14, and the 777/777X rate goes from five presently to two per month next year and stays there for 2022.
The 737 MAX production will stay at a very low level until the present inventory of 450 produced MAX has cleared. Present planning is a slow ramp during 2021, with a rate of 31 per month only reached at the end of 2022.
Aviation Forum Munich: Boeing moves away from Partnership for Success
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 6, 2019, ©. Leeham News at Aviation Forum Munich: The second day of Aviation Forum Munich had an interesting presentation from Boeing’s VP of Sourcing, Jody Franich.
He described the One Boeing approach for Manufacturing and Sourcing and how Boeing is moving away from its supply chain Partnership for Success program, with the supplier cost down focus replaced by a more long-term cooperation model with a mutual benefit focus.
Boeing’s VP Sourcing Office Jody Franich presents to Aviation Forum Munich.
McAllister out, a new Deal at Boeing Commercial Airplanes
By Scott Hamilton
Analysis
Oct. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: Kevin McAllister’s departure yesterday as CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes comes as no surprise.
Only the timing—now instead of next year, as was widely surmised—caught people off guard.
Kevin McAllister, left, and Stan Deal, right, at an order signing. McAllister is out and Deal is in. Credit: Azal.az.
Reports conflict whether he resigned, was fired or (as one report put it), it was a “separation;” it really doesn’t matter.
Word was circulating for months, long before the 737 MAX grounding, that his was a fading star.
He was replaced by Stan Deal, CEO of Boeing Global Services.
That McAllister is the first high-profile casualty of the MAX grounding and recertification crisis is also not a surprise. That he would be sacrificed had been rumored for weeks. The New York Times openly wrote about this prospect 10 days ago.
But tying McAllister to the MAX crisis is to some degree scapegoating.
As I wrote Oct. 7, the fingers of blame for the crisis point much higher than McAllister.
Pontifications: Busting the XWB brand; and more about the Boeing-IAG deal
- Dissecting the British Airways-Boeing MAX deal, part 2
By Scott Hamilton
July 1, 2019, © Leeham News: During the Airbus Innovation Days, and in other forums, officials promoted the idea of a 10-abreast coach-class in the A350 XWB.
Compared with the 10-abreast Boeing 777X, officials said the economics of the A350-1000 are unbeatable (along with other claims).
Boeing claims the 777-9 is 25% more economical on a per-seat basis than the A350-1000.
This is an unfair comparison, of course, because the -9 seats about 40 more passengers than the -1000 at nine abreast. Hence, the push for a 10-abreast A350.
All well and good, except a 10-abreast A350 totally busts the XWB brand built up so carefully since it was launched some 10 years ago.
IAG’s super MAX deal likely means super discounts, services
June 20, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing gets a Letter of Intent for 200 737 MAXes from International Airlines Group (British Airways, et al), announced Tuesday at the Paris Air Show.
Today, Airbus complained the deal came as a surprise—there hadn’t been a tender, Airbus had no chance to bid.
Christian Scherer, meet John Leahy.
Scherer is Leahy’s successor, and like Scherer, Leahy was blindsided in 1996 when American Airlines signed a 20-year exclusive procurement deal with Boeing.
Then, Delta and Continental airlines did the same.
Leahy complained bitterly that he didn’t know of American’s deal and had had no chance to bid.
Pontifications: Doubts continue over Boeing NMA launch
March 4, 2019, © Leeham News: Another week, another NMA story.
For an airplane that doesn’t exist, the prospective Boeing NMA continues to dominate much of the aerospace news.
By Scott Hamilton
Last week’s announcement by Rolls-Royce that it withdrew—in December, as it turns out—from the competition to power the NMA prompted a flurry of stories in aerospace media, including LNA.
Some stories suggested RR’s withdrawal meant Boeing was getting closer to launching the airplane.
Boeing, in January, said Authority to Offer might come this year and program launch had moved from 2019 to 2020.
Two prominent consultants predicted at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference last month the odds were 60-40 or 65-35 Boeing would proceed.
Maybe, but I have to tell you that conversations I had last week in the wake of the Rolls announcement are not encouraging.
Boeing expects another banner year for customers
By Dan Catchpole
Danieljcatchpole[at]gmail[dot]com
Feb. 13, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing Commercial Airplanes expects another banner year in 2019, Randy Tinseth, BCA vice president of marketing, said Tuesday at the PNAA conference.
The airplane maker expects its customers to make about $36 billion in profit this year, he said. That would make five consecutive years of BCA customers recording more than $30 billion in profits.
Tinseth declined to comment on the company’s decision to delay possibly launching the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) to 2020. However, as Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg noted during the Jan. 30 earnings call, Boeing likely will seek authority to offer this year from its board of directors.
He did say he was surprised to hear so many people already referring to it as the 797.
“I can tell you one thing—that has not been discussed,” Tinseth said.
Pontifications: Countdown to decision on Boeing’s NMA, Part 1
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 14, 2019, © Leeham Co.: Two thousand nineteen begins with increasing focus on whether Boeing is going to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA, aka 797).
Signs all point to a program launch, perhaps at the Paris Air Show. Authority to Offer (ATO) the airplane for sale is expected by March or April.
Engine companies were asked to respond to Requests for Proposals by the end of December. Engine down select is expected soon.
LNC’s Dan Catchpole will be reporting on this process soon.
NMA must stand on its own business case
Dec. 6, 2018, © Leeham News: The prospective Boeing 797 (NMA) must stand on its own business case and not rely on aftermarket contracts for a profitable
program, reports investment bank JP Morgan.
JPM’s aerospace analyst Seth Seifman met with Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg, CFO Greg Smith and Boeing Commercial Airplanes VP-marketing Randy Tinseth Dec. 4. In a research note issued yesterday, Seifman reported that the business case for the New Midmarket Aircraft still hasn’t closed—but “if Boeing launches the NMA, it will be with the intention of earning a return on the aircraft itself that is comparable to existing programs; it will not be a plan to accept lower margins on the aircraft and make it up in the aftermarket.” (Emphasis in original.) Read more