Embraer’s 3rd Quarter 2023 results contain good news

By Bjorn Fehrm

November 6, 2023, ©. Leeham News: Embraer presented its 3Q2023 results today. Commercial aircraft deliveries increased by 50% to 15 E-Jets compared with 10 jets in 3Q2022, and Executive jets delivered 28 jets versus 23 for 3Q2022.

Revenue for the group increased by 38% to $1,284m ($929m) for the quarter. The Services side increased revenue by 24% to $366m ($295m). The Defense revenue was up 40% to $133m($95m).

EBIT was $84m versus $11m for the same quarter last year. The company retained the 2023 guidance to deliver 65-70 E-jets and 120-130 Executive jets for the year.

Group results

Group revenue for the quarter was up 38% at $1,284m versus $929m in 3Q2022. EBIT was $84m ($11m). Free cash flow was a positive $44m (-109m).

The revenue for the different segments is per Figure 1.

Figure 1. Embraer’s segment revenue. Source: Embraer.

The company has done further work on the debt and has no main liability until 2027, with an average loan maturity of 4.8 years. Embraer has a total loan position of $3.1bn with $1.9bn in cash.

The company maintained its guidance for 2023: commercial jet deliveries of 65-70 aircraft, executive jet deliveries of 120-130 aircraft, revenues in a range of US$ 5.2 to US$ 5.7 billion, Adjusted EBIT margin of 6.4% to 7.4%, Adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.0% to 11.0%, and adjusted free cash flow of US$ 150 million or better for the year.

Commercial aircraft

The Commercial Aircraft division delivered 15 E-Jets during 3Q2023 compared with 10 for 3Q2022, Figure 2. The E1 and E2 split deliveries for 3Q2023 1/3 to 2/3 in units, which is positive as the E2s have a higher margin than the E1s.

Figure 2. Commercial jet deliveries. Source: Embraer.

Commercial aircraft revenue for the nine months was $1096m versus $722m for the first nine months of 2022, an increase of 52%.

Business Aircraft

The Business jets deliveries were up 22% compared with 3Q2022, with 28 deliveries versus 23, Figure 3.

Figure 3. Business jet deliveries. Source: Embraer.

Segment revenue was $340m versus $272m in 3Q2022.

Defense & Security

The KC-390 has had significant sales success in 3Q2023, with the Czech Republic, Austria, and the Netherlands joining Portugal and Hungary as export customers for the aircraft.

Segment revenue increased by 40% to $133m vs. $95m for 3Q2022.

Services and Support

Services revenue was $366m vs. $295m in 3Q2022, an increase of 24%, with a gross margin of 25%.

212 Comments on “Embraer’s 3rd Quarter 2023 results contain good news

  1. So Canada’s Porter Airlines saved them buy buying planes. Almost hilarious, Porter had ordered the Cseries planes till the Canadian govt didnt give them landing rights and now Canada lost a $1 billion sale of Aircraft to Brazil. Typical Liberal stupidity.

    • @Parnel: Other factors for Porter to switch: Embraer had very early delivery positions and export credit financing. Airbus didn’t have early positions any more and Canada couldn’t help finance. I think this had more to do with the switch than refusing rights at Billy Bishop.

      • ? why would Canada finance Embraer? So if Porter had to Finance those it would have to finance Airbus? I suspect and Porter cancelled the C series order they wanted to buy again the price was much higher?
        Embraer is desperate to sell planes so a better deal was struck.
        unfortunate the A220 is the better plane and it would have given Canadians jobs.

        • From the Export Development Canada website:


          Win more sales with Buyer Financing

          Price and quality have always been crucial considerations in purchasing decisions, but more of your customers are looking for financing options. We can help you gain a competitive edge by providing Buyer Financing to your international customer—and taking on the risk of non-payment for you.

          Brasil has the same program to support Embraer

          ‘Brazilian Programa de Financiamento às Exportações (PROEX) to foreign purchasers of Brazil’s Embraer aircraft ‘


          When Porter placed their order (it was a conditional order, BTW) the C-Series was still owned by BBD.

          Air Canada didn’t want to let Porter into the downtown TO market with jets, so they opposed the expansion.

          The A220 is the better aircraft and now AC has it, not Porter. They got the leftovers and given that Embraer has Boeing walk out on them at the altar, most probably got excellent prices and EMB got export financing for Porter, to boot.

        • Parnel:

          A large part of the A220 is not made in Candada. Wings are made in Northern Ireland, fuselage in Japan and the various systems (AC/Controls/Electronics etc) from all over.

          There is another assembly line in Alabama. If there was a spare slot an A220 would have gone to Porter from there.

          Sure there is a loss of Prestige but for a practical matter, its far less Canadian jobs and each airline has to decide what works for it and when they can get it (lot of 737s sold into Candada)

          Porter was locked into Toronto aka BB Airport and could not expand due to flgiht restrictions at the Airport (Turbo Prop Only). At least the people (Canadian) in Toronto made that decision not Porter.

          Porter is just an airline not a national Canadian Project.

          Porter took the best option they had. The US buys a lot of E175s from Brazil. But those too have a lot of US content (including P&W GTF engines).

          P&W is a big presence in Candada. Vague memories that the GTF for the A220 is assembled there. You can bet parts for it and the Embraer GTF are built there.

          Canada in my opinion does well and punches about its population numbers in exports and work shares from the F-35 program and the like.

          • *fuselage in Japan*

            Really? Where is your source?

            Furthermore, the port authority runs the BB airport but there was a tripartite agreement that went back from 80s that governs noise restriction of general aviation. My thought is for subjects I know little about, I would let others to comment.

    • In April 2015, Air Canada, also a user of the airport, stated that it was opposed to the introduction of jets at the airport. “Air Canada’s position on this matter is crystal clear. We do not support jets at Billy Bishop,” said Derek Vanstone of the airline.[119] Air Canada commissioned a study that concluded that the expansion would cost CA$1 billion in public expenditure.[8]


      ‘The study from consultants Oliver Wyman was commissioned by Air Canada, which has been vocal in its opposition to any jet expansion at Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport being pushed by competitor Porter Airlines.’

      Project stopped in 2015.


      Wanna know where those orders for 12 aircraft from Porter went to?


      ‘On 17 February 2016, Air Canada signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with Bombardier for up to 75 CS300 aircraft as part of its narrowbody fleet renewal plan. This comprised 45 firm orders, plus options for an additional 30 aircraft. ‘

      Now AC had firm orders for 60 aircraft, with 33 delivered. They also have options for another 30.


      It’s next level hardball. AC opposed giving Porter an advantage at Billy Bishop, killed their order for 12, but ordered 60 for themselves.

      Now Porter has to play on AC’s turf, Pearson – flying it’s reginal E2 jets against mainline A220’s.

      • Having flown in an E175 (let alone an E2) I can tell you the E series are nice jets.

        I don’t know an A220 would be much better unless the numbers of pax and range comes into play.

        Porter can pick up MAX, A220/A320 or a C919 at some future date!

        • ‘I don’t know an A220 would be much better unless the numbers of pax and range comes into play.’

          You mean airline economics? An aircraft that has transcon range that you can fly on long and thin routes that an A320/737Max family cannot do profitably?

          The E2 is a nice regional jet. Legacy carriers are ordering the A220 into mainline fleets (Delta, AF, AC, Qantas). Airlines are structuring their whole fleet strategy around the aircraft (airBaltic, Breeze) like other LCC’s – then flying it for 6 hour legs (Riga to Dubai, for example).

          The A220 is also the 717 replacement – 5 abreast but with more seats and much longer range. IIRC the 717 did not fly in regionals. It also killed off the A319Neo/Max7 (save the SWA order).

          The A220-300 (718) has more orders than the Max 7 (300), A319Neo (61) and the E2-195 (236)….combined.

          • Frank P:

            I am well aware of the situation, 65 years or so watching and being a part of aviation.

            An A220 works if you can fill (or 80% at least the wisdom some time back)

            If you can’t, then its a waste.

            The E2 treads seriously on transcontinental if not transcontinental range. Get a higher gross rating which is common, then it will.

            By your logic the only thing flying would be 777s/A350.

            There are breaks in what works for who. Alaska flies all E175 (or will soon). It works for them for their structure.

            Porter is in no way limited to the E2 195. Its also a huge move for them from TP to Jets and wider routes. Good way to start.

            E2 can do the route provings and then they can buy a MAX.

            Or you can be like Norwegian and get carried away and go big only to fall flat on your face.

          • ‘An A220 works if you can fill (or 80% at least the wisdom some time back)’

            In other news – water is wet. This goes far ANY aircraft.

            On that point, airBaltic has come out and said the breakeven point on their A220’s is a 62% load factor.

            ‘During the Paris Air Show 2019, airBaltic’s CEO, Martin Gauss, mentioned that the break-even point for the A220-300 is at 90 passengers – because the Latvian airline configures its former-CSeries aircraft in a 145 seat layout, the load factor to break-even is at 62%.’

            Qantas CEO: The A220 is a very good aircraft. Is it for Qantas?



            ‘The E2 treads seriously on transcontinental if not transcontinental range.’

            The E2-195 is a 1,000NM less range than the A220-300, 2,600NM vs 3,600NM. It barely makes NY to LA, but against the winter winds it will need a stop. Air Canada flies the A220 from Montreal to San Jose, CA.

            But if that were the case, than airlines would be ordering it to fly transcon, wouldn’t they? Only Porter is flying the E2-195 out of Toronto, the only North American airline.


            ‘By your logic the only thing flying would be 777s/A350.’

            Huh? Please explain this logic.


            ‘Alaska flies all E175 (or will soon). It works for them for their structure’


            Regional passenger fleet
            Embraer 175
            41 Operated by Horizon Air.
            42 Operated by SkyWest Airlines.

            Regional carriers Horizon and Skywest operate the aircraft for them. Hence – the E jets are nice REGIONAL aircraft – feeder planes.

            They are not part of the MAINLINE fleet:



            ‘Porter is in no way limited to the E2 195. Its also a huge move for them from TP to Jets and wider routes. Good way to start.

            E2 can do the route provings and then they can buy a MAX.’

            Time will tell here. Not sure if Canada can support 3 scheduled airlines. Westjet just swallowed up Sunwing and Airtransat is still the vacation guys.

            Remember – we’re only 10% of the population of the US and they are competing against AC on it’s home turf.


            ‘Or you can be like Norwegian and get carried away and go big only to fall flat on your face.’

            So you’re equating an LCC airline that tried to go long haul with 787’s (they had almost 40 of them…) to an aircraft choice between the E2 regional jet and an A220?

            Ok…if you say so

          • Frank P:

            “On that point, airBaltic has come out and said the breakeven point on their A220’s is a 62% load factor. ”

            Good data, thank you.

            So at 65% (ro0unded) then an E2 can fly further (and I seem to remember the E2 (forget model, probably 175) had an unadvertised range of 3200 NM.

            Clearly the E series are regional jets and the now A series is a MAX7/A319 and pursing Max 8 and A320 class hard.

            None of that matters as Porter did what it needed to do if they were going to be more than a 80 pax TP operator. People prefer jets to props (ergo, Ak Airlines aka Horizon going to 175s.)

            With a scope clause, no one will buy a E2 175-195 in the US, pilot costs alone preclude that.

            Delta is unusual in that it runs sub MAX8 class aircraft along with 737 and A320.

            Costs are a factor and Porter clearly got a great deal.

            Now they can play Airbus or Boeing against each other if they want to go larger longer range.

            And keep in mind Norwegian was a 737 operate before they jumped into the wide body area. They were an LCC.

            LCC wide body goes back to Freddy Laker.

            Right now Porter operates out of Toronto (Pearson?) and if they are successful they can expand and they can compete with Air Candada.

            Equally they are centrally placed to reach any US airport and with their current setup, they don’t need transcon range. San Diego is in reach. The E2 listed is pushing 3000 miles.

            Yes you have to have reserves but as I recall they were saying the E2 (forget which one) did 3200 NM (you have to convert that to miles of course as that is an odd Airline thing (or KM)

          • “So at 65% (ro0unded) then an E2 can fly further” 😂
            Makes me wonder what is the load factor for the E2 to breakeven? Has any airline made such claim?? Or just a strange thought bubbles out of your head?

            Didn’t Scott say the 175-E2 has been put on hold?
            Where does its range come from?
            It looks like the 175-E2 can reach 2,000 nm only.
            AFAIK Porter has a faithful following even though it flew turboprop exclusively. 😁

          • Yet, Embraer will make way more money with those 236 E195-E2s than the 718 A220, since no E2 is delivered o a loss as Embraer financial results appoints.

          • Lol. Are you sure?

            IIRC Embraer still suffered losses as recently as Q1 2023.

            Furthermore, the winning combination of the A220 and A320 help AB to win multiple major campaigns against its major competitor which apparently has holes in its lineup, how are you going to account for the contribution by having the A220 in AB’s lineup??

          • I am very sure! Just read the results and check the commercial aviation business unit EBIT.

            The losses from last year were due other factors, not related to commercial aviation deliveries. Just read carefully the results.

          • Please explain.

            IIRC, Embraer last recorded a profit from commercial was like six years ago. Embraer has to increase commercial aircraft delivery by like 50% in order to *become profitable*, according to its CEO.

        • .So at 65% (ro0unded) then an E2 can fly further (and I seem to remember the E2 (forget model, probably 175) had an unadvertised range of 3200 NM..

          I sent you the Embraer data sheet. Straight from the horses mouth:


          Range: 2,017 NM


          No – an E2 cannot fly further and airlines DO NOT make routes based on 65% load factor. What happens if they sell 90% of the aircraft?

          “Oh sorry – we either have to turn away business to get down to 65% load factor so we can fly it as advertised with the equipment we have allocated to the route, or we cannot go there with the planned equipment”

          The A220-100 has a range of 3,400NM and the -300 goes to 3,600NM.

          3,735 km (2,017 nmi)[128] 5,280 km (2,850 nmi) 4,917 km (2,655 nmi)

          Those are the 3 ranges for the 175, 190 & 195


          ‘Delta is unusual in that it runs sub MAX8 class aircraft along with 737 and A320.’



          Jetblue has A320’s & A220’s.
          Air Canada has Max’s and A220’s.
          Air France A320’s & A220’s.
          Qantas getting A220’s & A320’s.
          Korean has Max’s, A320’s & A220’s.
          Egyptair has A320’s & A220’s.
          ITA has A220’s & A320’s.
          Swiss has A220’s & A320’s.

          (and by A320’s I mean the A320Neo family, could be A321Neo’s)

          All have a sub-Max8 class aircraft (the A220) and the workhorse. Not so unusual as it is most likely, profitable – for those long and thin routes.


          ‘Right now Porter operates out of Toronto (Pearson?) and if they are successful they can expand and they can compete with Air Candada.’

          Having worked in the airline industry here, carving out a niche in the scheduled service market is difficult. Many have tried and failed. WestJet has stuck because it is based out West and people out there are loathe to fly AC as they see it as an eastern airline, supported by Quebec & Ontario.

          Porter’s niche was Billy Bishop airport, convenient as it is a lot closer to downtown that Pearson is. A lot closer.

          Now they have to compete with AC & Westjet and try to steal market share from them, in their own backyard. Tough to do, especially as Porter doesn’t do business class travel – all their aircraft are 1 class.

          That leaves the vacation traveller, which is what they are going after, opening up routes to Florida. Thing is, Air Transat is also there, as was Sunwing, which Westjet just bought to grab that piece in the east.


          (having done it myself, multiple times)

          You drive from Montreal down to the border, 45 minutes away. You cross over and drive to either Plattsburgh or Burlington and fly on a cheaper US carrier there. Park your car (as I recall, they gave special cheap rates, like $10 a week for Canucks if you drove and flew) and away you go.

          Torontonians go to Buffalo to fly US carriers.


          What is an awful lot easier and more lucrative, is the tour operator, flying to the Caribbean on those week long all-inclusive packages. Air, hotel, meals & drinks for $1,500-2,000 (depending on the hotel) is a great deal.

          Did that a dozen or so times.

          That’s where AirTransat is located. That segment.

          • E195-E2 has range to get to almost everywhere in North America out of YYZ. Why would Porter need the extra range of the A220? Are there any routes Air Canada is flying out of YYZ on an A220 that the E195-E2 can’t do?

            Also, the A220 program is still bleeding money, Airbus can make the A320 significantly cheaper than an A220, that is a serious problem.

      • Perhaps now there are Conservatives in Ont and with Luck Justin will be gone in 2 years Island airport can be expanded.
        However to late for Porter because I believe the E195 can’t use short runways.

        • I think you missed somebody…


          But he had this great program for the people of Ontario:

          ‘Ford campaigned on “buck-a-beer” and reduced the minimum price of beer from $1.25 to $1.’

          Talk about having your priorities in the right place. But this sums him up nicely:

          ‘In 2018, Ford endorsed the economic policies of the Republican Party and the presidency of Donald Trump in the United States, saying his support for Trump is “unwavering”.[267] After Trump announced tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports in August 2020, Ford expressed his disapproval, calling Trump’s policy “totally unacceptable”.[268]’

          Sorry there isn’t government money for Porter. We wouldn’t want to to increase the debt by spending public money for a company now, would we? That would be so socialist…

  2. From the Embraer Website:


    Embraer commercial have a total of 291 firm orders in the backlog, including 101 of the E-175, it’s older generation model.

    At 70 a year, the backlog is done in ~4 years. If they bump up the production rate, it’ll be done sooner.

    What does Embraer do? Are they getting out of the commercial aviation segment? The E2 line, a derivative – took about 5 years (which is pretty good) from launch to EIS. A clean sheet will take at least that long.

    I think Embraer is going to be the next company to make a move, not BA or AB.

    • Maybe a light weight E2 175 that meets the US Scope Clause.

      Drop some weight, restrict fuel a bit, cut a few seats? All of the previous maybe.

      In theory Embraer can’t sell the E175 into the US after 2027

      • Scope is 76 seats and an MTOW of 86,000 lbs.

        The E2-175 has an MTOW of 98,800 lbs, almost 13k too heavy. The engine change alone is 1,200 lbs heavier from the E to the E2.

        Range with full pax is 2,000NM and a count 0f 80 heads (each pax is 100kg or 220 lbs, according to Embraer)


        So you gotta cut fuel or pax, take your pick, but you are starting from 76 seats. You are essentially losing a row of pax for every 1,000lbs reduction in MTOW.

        It’s too much plane for the mission. What do you do with all the extra floor space? All pax get seated in 36″ pitch seats? It’s a waste…

        • Frank P:

          Like all things technical you have to understand the basis for the design decision. You can disagree with that basis, but it was a decision and it drove the design.

          In this case Embraer bought into the nonsense the US Unions (Pilot) would buy into a Scope Clause change. Of course they did not. Mitsubishi bought into the same thing and designed their Jet to that as well (then re-designed it and then quit)

          The E2 175 might (and I say might, please note that might) be able to get it under scope with a shorter length (weight and passengers) and design effort to lighten it.

          The engines give it good economics.

          If the route pays then it matters not what the pax count is.

          You need to note that Singapore flies an A350 from there to New York (and back of course) with under 180 passengers. Yep, pax for weight and range.

          They make a wide range of aircraft types and sizes for a reason.

          You might note that BBD went bust on the C series and its required the worlds largest aircraft maker to pull them out and its cost some huge bucks to do so even if they were given the C series.

          Embraer did not go bust making the original E and it did not go bust making the E2.

          They and Mitsubishi made a wrong decision on the scope clause and I think it was obvious but people and organization (gasp) make wrong decisions all the time.

          I long remember the time I thought I was wrong. Man that was a shock.

          • ‘You need to note that Singapore flies an A350 from there to New York (and back of course) with under 180 passengers. Yep, pax for weight and range.’

            So just to get this straight – you are equating Singapore’s A350 with 67 flat bed seats in J class and 94 recliner seats in premium economy (and the associated high price, high margin prices that come with those seats) on an 18 hour flight to an E2 jet that flies from Bozeman Montana to Portland Oregon, operated by a regional carrier….as a comparison?

            Tell me:

            How many RJ’s out there are there that have 40% of their seats as lie flat beds on a 60-90 minute hop?

            Or do they pack them in like sardines because people won’t pay those prices for those seats on those routes?


            ‘You might note that BBD went bust on the C series and its required the worlds largest aircraft maker to pull them out and its cost some huge bucks to do so even if they were given the C series.

            Embraer did not go bust making the original E and it did not go bust making the E2.’

            If you mean the company goes bankrupt, well BBD, AB, BA & EMB are still all around, despite all their failures.

            I guess you missed this part of the article:

            ‘The company has done further work on the debt and has no main liability until 2027, with an average loan maturity of 4.8 years. Embraer has a total loan position of $3.1bn with $1.9bn in cash.’

            If you think that the E2 has paid back it’s investment, I’d ask you to provide proof of that.

            270 orders on a low margin regional jet is a tall order. In 2013 it was said the program would cost them $1.7 billion. You think they’ve made over a $6 million margin per plane on them?


          • Funny @TW won’t mention the famous BA1 LCY to JFK, an Airbus with 32 passengers only.

        • E175-E2 is a longer fuselage than its earlier sibling.
          The reason is that US airlines still had the 76 seats limit but thats with the modern first, economy plus and economy seating plans. The E+ seating needs more space.
          The first class section is an aberration compared to almost all other countries where they dont bother with a first class for a regional route . Apparently US airlines want to offer passengers the same cabin choices as the larger single aisles. Thats why your all economy layout seems generous

          The airlines probably could get a scope weight change deal ‘ done by lunchtime’.
          But they dont want a single issue deal , they want to increase the numbers of jets they can fly as part of any changes, or no deal.
          A weight only change means* nothing* to the pilots as it maintains the jobs and current conditions
          Its the airlines who are intransigent

          • Hello Duke, nice to see you again.

            I would tend to agree. It makes airlines able to sell premium seating on smaller jets so that business class pax are not inconvenienced by having to rub shoulders with the great unwashed in shlepper class.

            Agreed as well, on the airline reasoning. It could be solved immediately by incorporating all those jets into the mainline fleet and all the pilots made part of the mainline seniority list.

            But that would increase costs and…well, we can’t have that now, can we?

          • What’re incentives for pilot union to agree to such a deal? The pendulum has swung back to pilots side.

          • @Frank P

            I wonder how many from FedEx and UPS would take up the offer and join AMR’s regional airline PSA.

      • ‘Drop some weight, restrict fuel a bit, cut a few seats? All of the previous maybe.’

        They have made the aircraft too big. Look at it this way;

        A certain retired BA engineer here told me that Boeing had a program whereas you were given a $10,000 budget for every pound of weight you could save on an aircraft.

        If the aircraft is made to seat 88 pax, which is what is listed at 31″ seat pitch – but I can only put in 76 seats, that extra floor space is wasted. If the fuel tanks you have built for the aircraft cannot be filled, you have made them too big.

        Too big means extra metal. Extra metal means more weight.

        Unless you are talking about a complete re-design of the plane to shrink it to it’s proper 76 pax size, why would carriers buy it? Which is why they are ordering the older model.


        This is from an article above:

        ‘In an investor note, Bernstein Research analysts George Zhao and Douglas Harned said that although global passenger traffic has mostly recovered, there are still approximately 3,500 aircraft in storage, compared to 2,500 in previous times.

        Some are grounded pending required maintenance, while others aren’t matched to airline size and/or range requirements. Some of this roughly 1,000 aircraft surplus is in the sub-100-seat regional jet space.

        Another analysis by Bernstein predicts that only half of these surplus aircraft will ever fly again. Regional jets will be particularly affected, given a growing pilot shortage in most regions.’

        The RJ’s are low man on the totem pole. Even moreso an aircraft that is too large to fit scope. Which is why it won’t see certification.

        Someone really messed up at EMB…

        • The problem with simplistic views are they don’t take into account the reality of the situation on a technical level.

          Scope Clause is not just weight and numbers of pax, it also is how many of what size can be operated.

          Economics are that the older tail engine regional s are done. That is why the E1 E175 is selling. If you are going to fly a 76 seater you want the most economic 76 seater you can get.

          The pilot issue is another very complex situation. Basically the cost to get a license (commercial/twin) is huge. A C-172 designed in the 50s now goes for $500,000+ (equal aircraft of modern mfg cost as much, hmm, so much for paying for that tooling I guess)

          You need 1500 hours to fly commercial, so while the major have raided their sub carriers, those pilots need hours and struggle to get them (often going flight instructor route)

          A major will look at those hours and want some true twin commercial time, not flight instructors.

          Airlines are now working on a career patch with assistance to those who meet the metrics and work up through regional as a FO and then Captain and then move to the big jets.

          Embraers problem is it is stuck at the regional aircraft level. As I stated, they made a bad decision but so did BBD.

          And before you diss Embraer, BBD tried to break into the big time LCA and went belly up with the effort. The good news was they designed a good aircraft that was worth picking up, otherwise we would have no LCA in the 130 seat sector.

          Last but no least, all aircraft are compromises. Weight is over simplified as a larger tank does not require a disproportion weight penalty. That is why you have 787-8/9/10 on the same wing.

          Mfgs just do an IGW and the tanks are already there, you just fill them up more. The gear may need a beef up but the structure is there to take it.

          Porter may well fail, but they have bargain cost aircraft that are very efficient.

          • That’s funny. I thought this:

            ‘Drop some weight, restrict fuel a bit, cut a few seats’

            Was an overly simplistic view of the situation.


            ‘That is why the E1 E175 is selling. If you are going to fly a 76 seater you want the most economic 76 seater you can get.’



            As of 2023, it is the only aircraft currently produced in this market segment.’


            And the backlog is 101.

            It’s the ONLY jet in that segment.


            ‘The good news was they designed a good aircraft that was worth picking up, otherwise we would have no LCA in the 130 seat sector.’

            The A220 has an exit row max of 160, but (as with airBaltic, as an example) they keep it under 150 so they only need 3 stews. It makes no sense to jam them in like sardines for 10 extra pax at the cost of an extra stew.

            AC puts in 137 because they want 12 business class seats in there.
            AF flies it with 148.
            Delta flies it with 3 classes of seats.
            JetBlue does 140 with 25 economy plus seats.
            Breeze is all over the place with 3 classes.
            Korean also flies it with 140.


            ‘That is why you have 787-8/9/10 on the same wing.’

            Which is why, in the same wing – they all carry the same amount of fuel.

            Fuel capacity

            33,340 US gal / 126,206 L 223,378 lb / 101,323 kg

            33,384 US gal / 126,372 L 223,673 lb / 101,456 kg

            (a whopping 44 more gallons in the 9 & 10)



            ‘Mfgs just do an IGW and the tanks are already there, you just fill them up more. The gear may need a beef up but the structure is there to take it.’

            You make it sound so easy. I wonder why the guys at Embraer haven’t thought of this?

            Do you think it is at all possible that the engineers at EMB have already looked at ways to get the aircraft under the required weight and seating – and not been able to do it? Do you not think airlines might have already approached them and asked them to get it to scope standard?

            I have nothing but the greatest respect for the engineers there, as they have made a wonderful aircraft in the original line. Boeing could have really used their talents.


            The answer is right here in Wiki for you:

            ‘While the first-generation E175 proved popular with regional airlines in the United States, the weight of the E175-E2 has prevented sales to these customers. Scope clause agreements between mainline carriers and their pilots unions prevent these airlines from contracting with regional airlines to operate aircraft with maximum takeoff weight exceeding 39,000 kg (86,000 lb). The E175-E2 exceeds this limit by 5,400 kg (12,000 lb), due to its heavier geared turbofan engines.[65][66]’

            Sourced from FlightGlobal.


            I highlight this for you:

            *The E175-E2 exceeds this limit by 5,400 kg (12,000 lb), due to its heavier geared turbofan engines.*

            Heavier engines means beefed up structure, means heavier aircraft, means increased MTOW, means taking less fuel, means shortened range.


            This is the fuel load for the 3 E2’s

            Max fuel

            8,522 kg (18,788 lb) 13,500 kg (29,800 lb) 13,690 kg (30,180 lb)

            “Which of these things – is not like the other? Which of these things, does not fit?”

            It looks to me like EMB already shrunk the fuel tanks as much as they could, to get it under weight.

            The E-175 had a fuel load of:

            Max fuel 9,335 kg (20,580 lb)

            and a range of:

            Range[a] 2,200 nmi (4,074 km; 2,500 mi)

            What does that tell you? They put smaller gas tanks in the E2 (albeit with better engines) lost range over the E1 and made a heavier aircraft.

            On the E2-190 & 195 they INCREASED the fuel load over the original E1 line:

            Max fuel 12,971 kg (28,596 lb)

            Take from it, what you will…

  3. In other aviation related news today, ALC released it’s financials and SUH had this to say about AB & BA:

    ‘Air Lease (NYSE:AL) on Monday said the company isn’t sure that Boeing (NYSE:BA) and Airbus (OTCPK:EADSY) (OTCPK:EADSF) will meet their year-end targets for plane deliveries. Both planemakers have been dogged by manufacturing issues among their suppliers.

    “Neither of the two big players will reach the target deliveries that they forecast,” Steven Udvar-Hazy, chairman of Air Lease, said in a conference call to discuss earnings with analysts.

    He cited Boeing’s (BA) difficulties with fixing defects in the 737 Max and said “787s are just perennially delayed.” He also pointed to Airbus’s (OTCPK:EADSY) (OTCPK:EADSF) challenges with supplier Pratt & Whitney, the unit of RTX (NYSE:RTX) that this year recalled dozens of jet engines to inspect possible defects.’


    • Frank my friend wrote
      ‘Mfgs just do an IGW and the tanks are already there, you just fill them up more.

      No. Fuel tanks are created by sealing the space between the wing ribs, sealing them, adding vent chords, drip tubes, bonding and a surge tank. More gas just means you seal different ribs. Nobody configs a -7 wing for -9 fuel stowage because all that extra sealing weighs a lot. There is no benefit to making fuel tanks larger than needed

      • I didn’t write that – it was me quoting a statement from Transworld.

        However – I do defer and agree with your assessment.

  4. Reuters: Airbus Edges Towards 2023 Delivery Goal After 18% Increase in Oct

    The question is how many engines CFM/P&W can supply in the next two months.

    “In the final two months of 2022, Airbus delivered 166 jets.”

  5. Simple Flying has a video on Ryanair and Boeing


    They want 57 of their Max’s by April 2024. That’s 10 a month. Apparently they were supposed to get 27 by the end of the year, but will only get 14.

    If they get them much later than that (May 2024) , O’L says they won’t take them as they’ll be too late for the summer season.

  6. And the Porter market shrinks again:


    Arajet Receives Sixth Boeing 737 MAX And Launches Montreal Flights

    The new aircraft, named Isla Saona, had its first flight on November 7, serving the Santo Domingo-Toronto route. Arajet has launched a new international route connecting Santo Domingo Las Américas International Airport with Montreal International Airport, with plans to add a new destination to Buenos Aires next week.


    The competition in Canada (like all airlines around the world) also comes from other carriers who want to get into the lucrative vacation traveler niche.

  7. This is a good overview on Porter as well as the E2 195.


    I have to laugh at Frank P statement Porter is sunk. One airline, 4 flights a week? Really. Porer has to compete with Air Candada, Westjet and I don’t know how many others have sprung up in Candada overnight.

    Of course its a tough market, it always is. But Porter has an interesting main base position, a bit like mini Emirates.

    What you can say is they are flying an extremely efficient new aircraft that was acquired on used aircraft terms.

    They also have a pilot supply coming up out of the Dash 8 fleet. That is a nice bonus being able to offer a career path.

    And if wildly successful, Porter can bring in MAX/A320 or heavens forbid, C919!

    And to be clear, I don’t predict Porter is a guarnatee4d success, they do have a lot of the critial parts in place and are not starting from zero.

    • ‘I have to laugh at Frank P statement Porter is sunk. ‘

      …and I really have to laugh at how you have to put words in people’s mouths to try and make a point. Not for the first time, either. Please stop it.


      You really don’t get it, do you?

      The reason why AC wanted no jets at Billy Bishop was that it was a competitive advantage for Porter. Now they have to compete at Pearson with not only AC (who being the largest, has the best gates, can offer the most flights, better seating…) but the likes of Flair, Westjet, Nolinor, AirTransat…

      …but they have to PAY the same usage rates at YYZ as the rest of them.

      It levels the playing field and the guys already there have an advantage.

      That’s all I’ve said.

    • Here’s the thing TW:

      To understand Porter, you have to understand Toronto. Traffic in T.O. is absolutely horrendous. Getting to the airport on the 401 is like pulling teeth, especially if you live in town. You can try the Gardiner to the 427, but it’s horrible. The DVP takes you in the wrong direction, then you deal with the 401. Cutting through the city is a killer.

      You can literally walk from the CN tower to Billy Bishop.

      This was a huge advantage for Porter as people could have gotten flights out of the city, heading south from downtown. Now they traipse to YYZ along with everyone else.

      • Well I guess you can thank Air Candada or the NIBY in Toronto.

        Has Porter cancelled the Dash 8 flights out of BB? SFO to Oakland used to have a helicopter hop. More than one way to skin a cat.

        And yea, I was tweaking you a bit. Porter is not new to the game nor stupid from what I can tell so they will have taken into account other airlines and the competitive landscape.

        How much the Prop issue plays into Porters calculations?

        Like Boeing, its going to be interesting to watch.

  8. AB sounds bullish and confident. It’s the best of times for one major airframer, it’s the worst of times for the other one.

    Reuters: Airbus bullish on jet output as profits override space charge

    • “GE last month trimmed a 2023 growth forecast for total CFM LEAP engine deliveries and signalled a slower pace of growth for next year.” Slower pace for the 737 MAX??

    • Airbus is just going about their business, dealing with supply chain issues and working on ramping programs up to where they want them to be.

  9. from Aviation Week
    “Meanwhile, Airbus appears to have gained confidence in its ability to give more precise guidance on boosting A220 production, too. The OEM had previously guided the market for a rate of 14 per month by the middle of the decade. It now says that level is to be reached in 2026. Airbus is also working toward a rate of 75 A320 family aircraft per month that same year.

    Once the growth plan has been achieved, Airbus plans to produce a total of 89 narrowbodies per month, plus 14 widebodies, for a total of over 100 aircraft per month.”

  10. A321XLR info
    “Entry into service will be in Q2 2024 – It’s coming very soon now and we’re coming very close to that point. That’s where we are and that’s positive on the XLR. And I know that customers are impatient to see the plane coming.”

  11. @TW

    Seems like Canadians have no qualms about flying short trips in Q400. Canada has one of the biggest Q400 fleet. In addition to Porter, both AC and WS have the aircraft in their regional fleet.

    • Pedro:

      Alaska is no different, a majority of the bushy communities are served by prop jobs. Despite the size of the state the numbers of pax to a given village does not support a regional jet or even Dash 8.

      That said, Alaska Airlines tried to put Dash 8 on the Fairbanks (2nd largest city in AK) to Anchorage run and got nothing but grief for it. Its about a 45 minute to 1 hour flight.

      They now run an E175 on that route.

      So, for those who do not know, Alaska has more aircraft per capita than any place in the world and well used to private and commercial prop flights.

      They still want a jet when they can leverage it.

    • So the $250k bonus for Fedex/UPS pilots to fly for AA is to fly for PSA, the regional carrier.

      $175k on your first paycheck and $75k in a year.

      But you’re flying RJ’s…

    • Pedro, I just saw your question further up – about joining a regional. My answer to that is…it depends.

      Let’s say that I am young, single, perhaps with some debts racked up to become a pilot…it might be attractive.

      You’d also have to be able to read the pilot market.

      If there is going to continue to be a dearth of talent in the field in a year or two (after I get my $250k payout) I might be inclined to jump over, thinking there would be a chance to get onto a mainline carrier in the future.

      If I have lots of seniority and enjoy working nights…I stay. If I want a more normal daytime life – I jump.

      There’s a lot to consider…

      • Looks like anyone who get out of FedEx/UPS would walk straight to AA/DL/UA/WN. Regional??

        • Just from reading the details of the payout from PSA, it seems like you can score an extra $250k if you work for them for 2 years. So you get your regular PSA pilot salary, plus the bonus.

          Is it worth the extra money to go knocking on the doors of AA/DL/UA/WN in 2 years, losing that seniority time if you went today and flew RJ’s on short hops for the next 24 months?

          Classic opportunity cost dilemma.

    • 😂
      ‘“There hasn’t been a 787 delivering on time for I don’t know how long,” he added. “And so every 787 comes with presumably, I assume so, a heavy, heavy ‘excuse-me’ check attached to it.”

      ‘Scherer said Boeing must have had to provide those airlines major compensatory benefits to hold onto those [777X] orders despite the five-year delay.

      The 777X orders “survived with a lot of emergency-room life support,” he said.’

      • ‘Commercial aircraft programs inventory included amounts credited in cash or other consideration (early issue sales consideration) to airline
        customers totaling $3,862 and $3,586 at September 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022.’

        Almost $3.9 billion sitting in inventory…

      • ‘Excuse-me” check attached?

        Emirates is reportedly set to transfer some of its 787s to Flydubai as part of a 777 deal. AN announcement of the deal between Emirates and boeing is anticipated at the Dubai Air Show. Meanwhile, Emirates is still in negotiations with Airbus regarding an A350 agreement.

      • This was from the 2022 EOY:

        Go-ahead and Initial Delivery
        737-7 2011 2023
        737-10 2017 2024
        777X-9 2013 2025
        777X-8F 2022 2027

        So where does the Max 10 fit into all of this? 2025?

    • Wasn’t it supposed to be within a month and EIS in early 2024?

      Look at the EIS now…

      Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) said it expects the FAA to grant certification to Boeing’s (NYSE:BA) 737 MAX 7 aircraft by April 2024. That would allows fights using the aircraft beginning as early as October 2024.
      “For our internal planning purposes, we assume it’ll be certified in April and then flying for us in the October-November time frame,” COO Andrew Watterson told Reuters.

    • Slips into 2025.

      “Assuming TIA is granted by year-end and flight testing goes with few major surprises, Boeing would start 737-10 deliveries in the first quarter of 2025, the sources said.”

  12. Airbus delivered 50 A220s, 48 of which are the A220-300. Embraer delivered 23 E195-E2 but no E190-E2 in 2023

    • “Airbus Chief Executive Officer Guillaume Faury stopped over in Istanbul ahead of the show, with a photo published in state-run media of him in a celebratory mood, shaking hands with Turkish Air Chairman Ahmet Bolat. Airbus declined to comment on any agreements with customers ahead of the event.

    • Wow.
      Impressive… nice boost to the program,and Emirates renewed faith in the type.
      I see a great day one for Boeing at the show.
      Plenty of 787’s , and Max’s ordered as well !!

  13. LNA: Supplier approval processes offer protection from unscrupulous suppliers.

    How would it work??
    In fact, according to a report from Bloomberg:

    – AOG’s (AOG Technics) operations were accredited by Transonic Aviation Consultants Inc., a quality-assurance organization endorsed by the FAA;
    – Transonic CEO Bob Pina said a subcontractor hired by his firm inspected AOG’s operation in London and reported back that everything appeared to be in order.

  14. airBaltic ordering 30 additional A220-300 to become the largest A220 operator in Europe

    • Yah – this is the total original order that Gauss wanted. I remember an article on airBaltic with him having 80 little A220 models on a credenza, which is where he wanted the fleet to be.

      As well, they now have an additional purchase rights for 20 more, so now he wants a fleet with a cool 100.

      I guess it’s working out for him.

    • Fledgingly Airbus? More like desperate.

      However, I think AA’s walk away deal for A300s was better.

      Borman was a great CEO of great former Eastern Airlines………IAM’s Bryan ran it into the permantly crippled it with their strike. With the pilots and FAs joing in. I feel sorry for those employees who lost jobs. I have read many sad stories of how it ruined many of them financially. Sad.

  15. Looking at BA’s 777-9 certification timeline, does it look tight to be certified by early 2025?

    • Pedro….
      Great question. None of us can really answer it because nobody here has a clue how the congressional actions on the changes in cert basis will be applied. If its a derivative of the 777 and they have a deminimus change package, there probably good. If they need a new TCDS in recognition of a new carbon wing that wiggles integrated with the biggest engine mounted on a twin jet, it could be challenging. All we know for sure is that once flight test approval is granted, properly flown test flights may be submitted in response to the flight test plan and properly formulated flights flown prior to approval may be submitted if the aircraft config tested represents the approved test configured vehicle. They may have banked considerable data against the test plan but thats all invisable to us today

    • Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, chairman and chief executive of Emirates Airline and Group, said during a news conference.

      “The 777 has been central to Emirates’ fleet and network strategy of connecting cities on all continents non-stop to Dubai,” he said. “We are pleased to extend our relationship with Boeing and look forward to the first 777-9 joining our fleet in 2025.”

      SOunds like they think they are getting jets in 2025.

  16. According to the Seattle Tines:
    “the *total value of Boeing’s sales wins on the first day is approaching $26 billion*, an estimate based on market pricing data from airplane-valuation firm Avitas that assumes standard discounts.
    However, these huge deals typically get discounts well above standard. And Boeing will have had to compensate Emirates for the fact that its first 777X will arrive five years late. So that figure is an upper bound to the actual sale price total, which is not made public.”

    “There’s been a massive amount of activity from airlines to line up slots,” said Steven Udvar-Hazy, who runs Air Lease Corp. and helped place a deal on Monday for EgyptAir for 737 single-aisle Boeings. “Time will tell whether all these aircraft will deliver on time, and whether the airlines that ordered them will be able to absorb them at a later time. It would not be surprising if some of these aircraft would get deferred into a later time frame.”

    • Some info on the Boeing order.

      At LIST prices, here is where they get that $50 billion figure:

      BOEING 777-8 $418.40 35 $14,644.00
      BOEING 777-9 $442.20 55 $24,321.00
      787 order $338.40 35 $11,844.00
      Total ………………. $50,809.00

      I couldn’t find what model of the 787 was sold to Emirates and Fly Dubai, so I plugged in the most expensive.


      What kinda discounting is going on?

      If the past 9 months are any indication, this is where they stand:

      2023 List price 9 months delivery
      BOEING Max 7 $99.70
      BOEING Max 8 $121.60 286 $34,777.60
      BOEING Max 9 $128.90
      BOEING Max 10 $134.90
      BOEING 747 $418.40 1 $418.40
      BOEING 767-300ER $217.90
      BOEING 767-300FR $220.30 17 $3,745.10
      BOEING 777-200ER $306.60
      BOEING 777-200LR $346.90
      BOEING 777-300ER $375.50
      BOEING 777F $352.30 17 $5,989.10
      BOEING 787-8 $248.30 9 $2,234.70
      BOEING 787-9 $292.50 25 $7,312.50
      BOEING 787-10 $338.40 16 $5,414.40

      Total 371 $59,891.80

      Actual Revenue $23,420.00

      % of list 0.39


      So Boeing is discounting orders at 61% – ballpark numbers. Could be a point or two more.

      That makes the MEA order worth around $20 billion.

      This is strictly a calculation of what list is and what Boeing is receiving in actual revenue for the models delivered.

      • The 777-9 already built may need “rebuild and rework” (according to BA’s CEO). How much do they worth?

        • From what I’ve heard from the retired BA guys, Boeing will certify that aircraft NIB and good to go.

          BA is giving compensation to airlines to keep those orders intact and I’m sure that part of the agreement is that you take those aircraft they are working on now. Wouldn’t make sense to do otherwise.

          The costs of rework will fall under expenses and will either be squirrelled away in the DPB or expensed along with the aircraft, at delivery.

          When 777X deliveries will start, circa 2025/26, we can calculate just how much of an increase to revenue, they are getting.

          • That’s one of the reasons why EK has to order more 777-9. 🤭

      • Wow, its amazing how you know info Wall Street and other airlines do not. Hey while you at it, please give us the Airbus discount they gave to Turkish Airlines. You know, in detail, like you able to do on all Boeing orders.

        • I doubt Frank P is far off.

          Still of course this is horrible news for Boeing as all it does is sell and mfg more aircraft at a loss. Oh the Humanity.

          • Known fact discounts on orders this big are around 50ish, or a little bit more.

            Can’t wait to get the Turkish Airlines discount percentage.

          • @TW

            All I’m saying is that IF the current trend of prices continues, that BA is giving around a 61% discount off of list.

            Who knows how much each airline pays individually.

            This info is hardly secret and even though we’ve been over the same ground with Williams on it (the individual airline thingie) doesn’t detract from what the numbers are saying.

        • Williams – we’ve gone through this already.

          Let me re-iterate it for you;

          This is an across the board, calculation. All airlines, all deliveries during the time period. Anyone can do it. It’s hardly insider info.

          We know what the list price is per model.
          We know how many were sold.
          Multiply and add to get the amount that BA would have received if they sold at 100% list.
          Compare against actual revenue received during the time period.

          It’s a very simple calculation. You don’t even need Cal 1 to do it.

          And yes, it can be done for Airbus
          (if you provide me with the list prices, since they don’t publish list prices anymore)

          • You beat me to it, Airbus does not provide list prices anymore.

        • @Williams

          …and to that point, not only can it not be determined which airline paid what, I couldn’t tell you which of the models (737Max, 787, 777X) are being discounted higher or lower.

          It’s an across the board BCA discount rate for the time period, easily done in excel.

  17. Congratulations to Boeing and Emirates on the 777-9 order! If the prices of the A350-1000 / RR go up in 2024, Emirates might as well put all their eggs in the 777-9 basket.

    • I cheer any airline startup, we need more competition. But this market plan has been done many times in the past and……………….

    • Memo to AB
      No A350 1 orders from you, until Rolls can clean up and deliver performance guarantees I demand .
      Perhaps it’s wearing off on Turkish as well, still looking for that elusive sign on the dotted line📝 to make that order legit !!

      • What is also funny is the GE9X has NO track record (in service hours and cycles, it is well known the issues with development, nice of Boeing to keep delaying given GE a chance to get up to speed)

      • In the meantime, China gets MAX via a back door of leasing. Ya gotta love it.

        Leeham called it right, sooner or latter they need lift and Airbus can’t supply it and the C919 will never hit production numbers to do so either.

      • A certain poster and others wanted to say the MAX boycott was due to safety issues. Even after MAX resumed flying. Guess it was a smoke screen as stated a year ago. Its GeoPolitics. It was always GeoPolitics.

        Wait till Macron says something that offends China (he won’t) and then some will then understand GeoPolitics.

        • @williams @TW

          An interest thought:
          what if there’s no order during Xi’s visit?

          Rinse and repeat next year?? 🤭

          • That may happen but from Boeing’s POV at least the thaw is starting to happen.

          • BA: there’s always hope.
            Check out Calhoun’s talking points, from 2020 … to 2023, always.

        • I guess Boeing should be thankful XI really doesn’t care what Pedro thinks.

  18. Emirates holds off on Airbus A350 order in engine rift


    “DUBAI, Nov 14 (Reuters) – Emirates ruled out an immediate deal to buy Airbus A350-1000 jets on Tuesday, blaming a dispute with engine maker Rolls-Royce over the durability of its engines and leaving the European planemaker without a major showcase order at the Dubai Airshow.

    Speaking a day after placing a $50 billion order for Boeing 777X jets, the president of the Dubai airline, Tim Clark, said the A350-1000’s engine would offer only a quarter of the time between maintenance visits compared to Emirates’ needs.”

    ” Woah Woah Shaggy” ( Scooby Doo reference for the youngins). I bet this rift goes back to the engines on the A380. Who says corporations do not keep grudges

    • Of course, Rolls responds…….(they better)…..

      Rolls-Royce defends A350-1000 engine from Emirates criticism


      “DUBAI (Reuters) – Britain’s Rolls-Royce (LON:RR) said on Tuesday it was taking steps to improve the durability of its Trent XWB-97 jet engines but denied a suggestion from one of the industry’s most influential leaders that the Airbus A350-1000 engine was defective.

      Chief Customer Officer Ewen McDonald acknowledged that the company’s largest engine faced challenges in climates like Dubai, where Emirates has held off ordering the A350-1000.

      “The engine works really well in what we call benign operations … But in sandy, hot conditions it is challenged, as all modern engines are, because the temperatures are very high. We see it across the industry,” he said in an interview.”

      What? That face palm is the Airbus sales team sitting in the Airbus Chalet in Dubai………..The A350 sales team had a good year, nonetheless and should be receiving some nice bonus checks.

      Egypt Air ordered 10 A350-900s


      • Is that the same ME environment that the GP7000 performed so admirably in?

        You have to wonder where Emirates gets its numbers from. Airlines closely held secrets.

        And TC can only blame himself when he bought the last of the A380s with the defective Ubber Improved wondrous Trent 900 that was going to get better SFC than the GP7000 with all the extended overhaul times you get from a CFM56.

        And yes its true, TC claimed a miraculous (from memory) of 7% SFC for the Trent 900 Supper Dooper which would be hard to get from an all new engine.

  19. Mr. Hamilton has been very quiet of late. Is he at the Dubai Air Show wearing a Ghutra (head covering)?

    • @williams: Nope, not at the air show. I’ve stepped back for a while to concentrate on writing the sequel to my book Air Wars https://tinyurl.com/3yhm77tn.

      We’ll have a recap of the air show next week.


  20. With these large orders, is this a bubble. Since the Emirates and Turkish orders seem to be replacement aircraft for the future I would say no in these cases.

    • Tim said EK can make use of all aircraft they ordered if those arrive tomorrow. Their A380s would fly like another two decade. Replacement?

      • I would not bet on those 10 year A380s flying another two decades. Same for the 777s presently flying. They will start being replaced starting near the end of the decade.

        • Lol. Repeated delays of the 777X said to force EK to refurbish interior of both A380 and 777-300. TC said their A380 would fly beyond 2040!
          The 777X is too small as a direct replacement of the A380.

          • The oldest ones will start retiring in 2032. Emirates work them like a rented mule. What do you think is going to replace them? The next biggest and longest range plane available. The last A380 delivered two years ago will be flying…maybe….to 2040.


            “So, what’s the latest on the retirement of the Airbus A380? This week, Emirates President Tim Clark has been quoted by airliners.de as saying that the airline intends to fly the A380 until at least 2041. This would be 20 years from when the newest A380 was delivered to the airline, in 2021.

            This is the first timeline I’ve ever heard from Emirates that puts A380 service as far out as the 2040s. Earlier this year, Clark was quoted as saying that the airline intends to start retiring the A380 as of 2032. That didn’t actually tell us much about when the planes would be fully out of service, though:

            The claim wasn’t that all A380s would be retired by 2032, but rather that this was when the airline would start to retire the aircraft in larger numbers
            Emirates has already retired some of its older A380s, so you can expect the A380 fleet to already progressively shrink prior to 2032
            Even with that 2032 timeline, the expectation was that A380s would still be flying into the mid-2030s”.

          • The 777X is the replacement unless something bigger comes along. And that is not looking realistic any time soon.

            Maybe someone in Toulouse saw Keejse Ecoliner concept 15 years ago on Anet and will apply it to the A350. A double decker A350.

          • The first refurbished A380 went into service this year. It would retire by 2032? It would be too soon to fully amortize the investment.

            The timeline is determined by EK, not by a blogger on that website.

          • Said “Blogger” was quoting from the interview.

            But you are right, all 107 or so Emirates A380s will be flying till 2040 and then replaced with pixie dust.

          • If the blogger was quoting from the interview as you said, who is “I” in “This is the first timeline I’ve ever heard from Emirates that puts A380 service as far out as the 2040s.”? TC? Nope. 😂

            You’re sure you have a crystal ball that give you 100% certainty what’s on the market by 2042?? Great. Be my guest.

            Furthermore, you bet the most recent order placed would be delivered around 2040-42 to replace the A380s?? 🤭

          • Both OEMS have stated at present have no stomach for a large VLA, but I digress, back to your pixie dust and arguing semantics.

          • https://www.airliners.de/emirates-fliegt-airbus-a380-18-jahre-lang/71492

            “A380 until at least 2041
            Tim Clark made it clear to airliners.de for the first time that Emirates will operate the A380 aircraft for longer than planned according to current planning.

            “We currently expect to fly them until at least 2041, as there will not be a similarly large replacement by then.”

            Clark had tried in vain and intensively to convince Airbus in particular to build a successor. “A [new] double-decker super four-jet aircraft could operate 20 to 25 percent cheaper than the A380,” said the Emirates boss.

            He recently presented the Airbus board with detailed plans for a new giant aircraft, just like Emirates wants. “Built according to the latest metallurgical findings, this would be a high-wing aircraft, something like an enlarged A400M, with four very large Ultrafan engines suspended under its new super wings. They would be unrivaled in efficiency than the A380 engines developed in the 1990s,” explains Clark . “That would be achievable by the late 2030s, with introduction in about 15 years.”

            No A380 successor planned
            Since this will not happen due to the manufacturers’ strict refusal to invest in it, Emirates will need more of the largest types available in the future, all of which are significantly smaller than the A380. And the airline needs a correspondingly larger airport in order to handle the larger number of aircraft and movements as air traffic continues to increase.

            “We’re trying to convince the government to make this major investment soon,” says Clark. He estimates it will take about eight years to construct the necessary buildings at the new airport. “We will then have around 150 gates on the building instead of 70 today,” said the Emirates boss.

            The Dubai Air Show will take place at the exact location where the gigantic facilities at the DWC are to be built, first next week and then again for the next few odd years.”

            Who needs a crystal ball?

          • 1. Lol. Who boldly proclaimed Emirates’s order is for replacement a few posts above?
            According to your latest quote, can’t you see there is no replacement for the A380? Quite contrary to what you posted? Right??

            2. If I go back some twenty plus years, what the newspapers reported:
            AB revealed its A380 and BA rushed out its Sonic Cruiser.

            What happened afterwards?

            Oh, our poster said: who needs a crystal ball? 😁
            Didn’t you learn a thing or two over the years? Guess not. BA’s (former) CEO once touted: the civil aviation market has become global and any slump in one region can be balanced out by other markets. What happened? 🙄

          • I am tired of debating through Google Translate with you.

            There is no replacement for the A380. What do you think will replace the A380s as they are made in aluminum Coke cans? Airbus will happily sell you an A350-1000.

            The End.

          • Apparently you refused to read what I posted below. Lol. Also refused to admit how far off you were when you boldly proclaimed the EK order is a replacement of what they currently have.

            Even LNA talked about the end of A380 opens a door for AB for an alternative. It’s a matter of time, I believe.

  21. Sensational title but the content is interesting……..

    Boeing Outflanks Airbus At Dubai Airshow With Big Ethiopian Airlines Order


    Ethiopian Airlines agreed Tuesday morning to order 11 Boeing (BA) 787 Dreamliner jets and 20 737 MAX airplanes, which included an option to buy 15 additional Dreamliners and 21 extra 737 MAXs. The deal marks the largest purchase of Boeing airplanes by a company based in an African country, the company said during the announcement.

    Ethiopian Airlines CEO Mesfin Tasew said the order enables the airline to modernize and increase its fleet to support the company’s growth plan.

    The airline has more than 80 Boeing jets in its fleet and touts the largest fleet of Dreamliners in Africa. The new 737 order is a major show of support from Ethiopian Airlines. The order marks a healing of relations between the two companies, after an Ethiopian 737 MAX crashed in March 2019 and killed everyone on board. The crash grounded Boeing planes worldwide, due to Boeing design flaws playing a key role in that accident, and in another involving Indonesia’s Lion Air airlines a year earlier.

    “We have checked and confirmed that the design defects of the aircraft have been fully corrected by Boeing and we have renewed our confidence in the aircraft,” Tasew told Bloomberg.

    • Or to put it bluntly, we don’t want to change with all the costs and get put on the back end of a long list for A320 type.

  22. If a sale is used to renew confidence in an aircraft type, someone is paying a price.

    • No, its PR spin. Ethiopian had a legitimate problem with the image of the MAX and Boeing shot itself in the foot blaming pilots.

      So now they have to justify the comments made such as we will never buy a MAX again.

      And its true, the MAX has been gone through with a fine tooth comb. It does what it should have all along.

    • If the only job of an airframer is to have huge sales, BA would have been a very successful co. rn.

    • So I went onto Planespotters to have a quick look-see;

      They’ve taken about 140 aircraft in those 10 years, since 2013 – or about 14 a year. That’s about ~1 in 3 of the 455 orders.

      You know, maybe some people are catching on to the game being played; order huge numbers, get huge discounts and don’t take all of them. Perhaps it’s time for both OEM’s to start sliding scale pricing on these aircraft.

        • That sir – is A Bridge Too Far.

          Who knows which delivery relates to what contract?

          Some interesting tidbits:

          – There’s a period, from Dec 2018 until today, when Emirates only took A380’s (16 of them) for pax service. The last two aircraft they have taken, were 777F’s.

          – MSN 684 is on the Airbus Production list and looks to be A350 #1 for Emirates

          – 690, 693, 694, 695 & 696 also look like theirs.

          I thought they weren’t taking any A350’s?

  23. It seems Airbus & RR are not in a hurry to help out Emirates. If Emirates e.g. prefers the 777-8 over the A350-1000, they probably have good reasons for that. Such as hot airfield performance, payload, fleet commonality, price, engine MRO..

    • keesje:

      Keep in mind its not just the A350-1000 that has had reported early RR wear out issues.

      Don’t get me wrong, I think TC attempts to manipulate the situation and makes himself look like an idiot.

      Its a lot like the A350 coating issue, no one talks but then it finally breaks through and its wide spread.

      The Trent 1000 and the Trent 10 issues come into context, RR had issues going back to the Trent 900 and it then makes sense there would be other problem engines in the line (much like P&W with issues up and down the GTF chain)

  24. No Leeham coverage of the Dubai doings? Some major dealings going on

    That is strange.

    I am having to look to Simple Flying and Flight Global (mostly its headlines as articles are limited to 3 a month) to find out what is going on.

    Then the War Zone tells me that NATO is buying the E7.

    The E-7 much like the A330MRT and KC-46A had its teething issues (granted its more complex by orders of magnitude) but has been a show stopper since then. Also keep in mind only the Frame is Boeing, the rest is by others.

    • @TW: We’ll do a post-show wrap and analysis. We’re not on site and everyone else is reporting the orders. Nothing to add to being a stenographer, so our analysis will appear next week.

      • Flying to and staying in Dubai is not cheap but would have loved to have Scott interview Mr. Clark.

    • This?

      E-7 Wedgetail Radar Jet Chosen By NATO To Replace Aging E-3
      NATO has followed the U.S. Air Force in opting for the E-7A Wedgetail AEW&C aircraft as a partial replacement for its aging E-3 AWACS fleet.

      Per some posts on Anet, other than a couple for Airbus today, there are no more press conferences scheduled. I think on the civilian side things have died down for the show. Airbus could surprise.

  25. Interesting point from the airliner.de article. Mr Clark (a CEO is more technically inclined than most) presented a proposal for a A380 replacement. Apparently Airbus said, ” no thanks”.


    Tim Clark made it clear to airliners.de for the first time that Emirates will operate the A380 aircraft for longer than planned according to current planning.

    “We currently expect to fly them until at least 2041, as there will not be a similarly large replacement by then.”

    Clark had tried in vain and intensively to convince Airbus in particular to build a successor. “A [new] double-decker super four-jet aircraft could operate 20 to 25 percent cheaper than the A380,” said the Emirates boss.

    He recently presented the Airbus board with detailed plans for a new giant aircraft, just like Emirates wants. “Built according to the latest metallurgical findings, this would be a high-wing aircraft, something like an enlarged A400M, with four very large Ultrafan engines suspended under its new super wings. They would be unrivaled in efficiency than the A380 engines developed in the 1990s,” explains Clark . “That would be achievable by the late 2030s, with introduction in about 15 years.”

      • Of course, but admit it, you want to at least see the plans TC proposed. How he got to the 25 percent lower cost number.

        Airbus probably sent him away with an A350-1000 brochure.

        • Hmmmm, I wonder what aircraft will Emirates use to fill in for the A380 when it starts retiring older airframes?…………….Hmmmm.

          • You raise a good point – thee is nothing out there to do the job. They won’t find a like-for-like replacement. Any route an A380 flies will get less capacity on it, unless they order more aircraft, which means hiring more pilots/stews.

            Here are the different seating arrangements according to wiki:

            14 76 — 399 489
            14 76 — 401 491
            14 76 — 426 516
            14 76 — 427 517
            14 76 — 429 519
            — 58 — 557 615
            14 76 56 338 484

            Typical 3 class seating for a 777-9 is 349-357 (8F + 49J + 292-300Y).

            You average ~500 seats and now you have to drop to ~350.


            Conspiracy theory time!

            Not one US carrier supported the A380 program and placed any orders – not even for the high density NE to Europe market. All while Emirates was ordering dozens.

            Would an extra 100 or so airframes led to a re-wing/Neo version of the models and made the business case for Airbus?

            Instead, Emirates is kinda stuck using the type until 2040, having to D check them 3 times and either more capex devoted for future orders or a capacity shrink on the horizon.

          • Problem with the conspiracy theory blue chippers from Europe and Asia were in on it.

            I go you one further, instead of bringing out the 800, Airbus should have debuted with the 900 series for which the big wing was designed for. The great CASM numbers would look even better.

            Agreed, would be interesting seeing the A380 rewinged. I remember the airlines complaining the A380 like the 777X was designed for the ME carriers and the orders shows and showed it. An A380 with less but more efficient wing may…….may have fared better.

            Either way, you are right, EK is stuck. Guess better get DWC opened quickly so they can compete with Turkish Airlines with WB twins.

          • ‘Either way, you are right, EK is stuck. ‘

            There is a well respected BA retiree here who postulated to me that Emirates will become the B-52 user of the A-380.

            As other airlines retire their A-380’s they will gobble them up, on the cheap. Then using the Delta model, they will re-furb the heck out of them, opening an MRO to become the pre-eminent authority on the type.

            Since they will have fully paid for the aircraft at a pittance, they can keep an inventory of parts for airframes that are no longer good for use and work the heck out of any planes that have life in them.

            As long as they keep the interiors fresh (I was reminded how the A-380 is the only aircraft with the space to put in those fancy apartment type seating classes) and maintain them properly, they can lessen the blow of losing the type in one fell swoop.

            Yah – 4 older engines are less fuel efficient that 2 cutting edge motors, but last I checked there was plenty of cheap go-juice in that area of the world.

            TC has said that they are looking to keep them until the start of the 2040’s. Deliveries were started in 2010 to 2020, which means in service some ~30 years, or 3 ‘D’ checks.

            Could they make it 4 D checks and get another 7-8 years out of them, in the worse case scenario? That would take the early ones close to 2050…


            It seems like they do have a few parked, here and there. I wonder if they are strategically rotating them, saving the life in the type – in an effort to stretch them out as long as possible?

    • Williams:

      The problem with TC is while he may be technical (I am in the BS camp) he comes across as trying to spin things and you have to triple check his mouthings.

      He insisted that the upgraded Tent 900 would jump 7% (or it had to for it to meet his claim) and that was and is impossible.

      So he wound up with a bunch of A380s that were less capable than the ones he had, making a mixed engine fleet out of it. Either he is not technical or he is equally stupid.

      Interviews are only good if the interviewer holds the subjects feet to the fire and that is rare.

      Some great shots of the F-15QA flying and what they have done with that aircraft by going to FBW. Just move it over to the MAX and …………

    • Would love to what Black Friday Special did Emirates get for this face saving order.

      Did Clark believe the words he was selling…………………….Maybe, but he got a great deal on 15 A350s.

    • Remember this?
      “in 2019 Clark said at the event that a decision on a purchase of the Boeing 787 would likely be months away as he weighed his options. He signed the next day.”

      When are those 787s delivered?
      How much BA is going to make/loss from that deal? 🤭

      • Yes, but I am not talking about that, I am about the Black Friday Deal Emirates got yesterday.

    • I think Emirates is a position to place orders, have second thoughts later on, change & get away with it undamaged. How many changes have they already made on A350/777x orders over the last 10 years? I would hesitate qualifying recent Emirates orders as rock solid.

      Maybe they’ll change their minds, again. Is it more like LOI with a lot of conditions? The 777-8 will be a heavy, expensive 777-9 derivative. The 777-9 itself is a heavy expensive 77W derivative aircraft, hopefully certified in 2025, 5-6 years late. What could go possible wrong with this Emirates order? I would love to review this contract..

    • Just having a look. The A350 is a like for like replacement with the 777-200/LR/ER, pax wise. However, they’re losing capacity if they try to replace their -300/300ER’s with the A350-900.

      Side note:

      Emirates has various seating arrangements on their A380’s. One of them is with no first class, 58 business class seats and 557 sardine class seats in economy, for a total of 615 pax.

      Anyone know what routes they fly these on?

      • They used them from Copenhagen to Dubai before COVID. I once flew it. 100 times more comfortable than being squeezed into a 777-300ER with 10 abreast.

      • Why do you think the A350-1000 was such a hot topic of discussion? It would be perfect for probably half the routes the 777 presently flies.

        • That’s a good point. If I had to answer why the A350-1000 doesn’t sell as well, I think that airlines by and large, home in on a definitive model of a series, which get’s the bulk of the orders.

          For the 777 line, it was the 777-300ER.
          For the 787 line, it’s the 787-9.
          For the A350 line it’s the A350-900.
          For the A330Neo line it’s the A330-900.

          Only the A330Ceo has orders almost split between the -200 and -300.

          It holds in the NB segment as well;

          737Max 8
          A321Neo (shifting away from the A320Ceo/Neo)

          Trends change. Needs change. Some models may just fit better and are more economical.

          • The A350 line was designed as the 777 replacement. We are just now starting the beginning of a 10 year long period of airlines replacing their 777s. Some of chosen the 787, the A350 or both. An airline needing seats really there is not much of a choice. The 777-9 or A350-1000. I see better days ahead for the A350-1000. One can argue its the heydays of the 1000 are starting.

          • @williams

            Yes and no. It’s a tweener. It was made to sit in between the A330 and the A380 (remember in 2004 the A380 was still around and deliveries only started in earnest in 2008. In 2006 the A350 was re-designed. Test flight in 2010. EIS in late 2014).

            It also does compete with the 787-10, in terms of pax – but has some 2000 more miles in range.


            It would be interesting to know how many more orders of the A380 did Airbus need, to think about keeping it around and making a Neo?

          • Good question, we know Airbus wanted more than just Emirates, even though Emirates was good for at least 120 new A380s. No doubt the sales team picked up the phone and made the calls, and even a more efficient A380NEO, with CASM numbers below that of twins was not enough to move the order needle.

            A plane 20 years ahead of its time or one that was obsolete in that no one other than EK needed a bus to carry that many passengers.

            But hey, thats why the A350 is as good as it is because of the lessons and tech learned from the A380.

  26. Oops.

    Reuters: Boeing chief strategy officer to depart in 2024 as part of restructuring

    @Scott what do you think about this?

    • https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/collaboration-and-cannibalisation-to-extend-emirates-a380-fleet-life-clark/155872.article

      Collaboration and cannibalisation to extend Emirates A380 fleet life: Clark

      “Emirates is aiming to keep 116 Airbus A380s in service over the next few years, with the effort supported by a series of maintenance agreements disclosed by the carrier.

      The carrier is the largest operator of the type, and eventually placed total orders for 123 before Airbus discontinued production.

      While a few of the A380s have been withdrawn from the fleet, Emirates president Tim Clark says he is committed to “keep them going as long as possible”.

      “We have to keep a careful eye on [the supply chain], so we’re cannibalising some of the early aircraft and storing the parts,” he said, speaking during the Dubai air show.

      “We’ll try to keep 116 going for as long as we can. Back-end of the next decade, it’ll drop to 90.”

      He says the fleet will decline as the Boeing 777-9 takes over the high-capacity long-haul task, “unless I can persuade [Airbus] to build another [A380] – I’ve been banging on about it, and each time they consign me to the loony bin.””

      • “unless I can persuade [Airbus] to build another [A380] – I’ve been banging on about it, and each time they consign me to the loony bin.””

        Not a problem TC.

        You fund it and we’ll build it. We’ll do the heavy lifting and you do the cheque scratching…

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