Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 14. Airframe for lower friction drag May 26, 2023
- Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 14P. Airframe for lower friction drag May 26, 2023
- The Small Airliner Problem, Part 6 May 25, 2023
- Pontifications: Looking ahead to a major Defense procurement: Boeing vs Lockheed-Airbus May 23, 2023
- Making the case for competing the next USAF tanker procurement May 22, 2023
The economics of a 787-9 and A330-900 at eight or nine abreast
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Nov. 16, 2022, © Leeham News: Over the last weeks, we have looked at the economics of our typical long haul widebodies when fitted with normal and high-density seating.
We continue this series by comparing the Boeing 787-9 and Airbus A330-900, when both fly eight or nine abreast economy cabins. As before, we fly the world’s busiest long-haul route, London Heathrow, to New York JFK and look at the comfort and economic data.
Summary
- The 787-9 is the more capable aircraft with about 700nm longer range than the A330-900.
- The economics of the two on routes both can fly is close. It comes down to cabin layouts.
The A350 enhancements, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Nov. 3, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we described the New Production Standard (NPS) of the Airbus A350. Now we look at the economic performance of the A350-900 versus the Boeing 787-10 on the world’s busiest long-haul route, London Heathrow to New York JFK.
We compare the economics with a nine abreast economy cabin and what difference the NPS and a 10 abrest change for the A350 produces.
Summary
- The 787-10, with its long fuselage, is seat mile cost-optimized for medium long-haul routes.
- Airbus gives the airline the option with the A350 NPS, comfort, or seat mile optimization.
Engine Development. Part 8. Throttle push or not?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
October 6, 2022, © Leeham News: The early years of 2000 saw new engine programs launched for the new Boeing 787 Dreamliner and Airbus response, the A350.
Substantial differences in the life of these aircraft programs made the engine programs develop differently. It was about throttle push or not.
Summary
- The Dreamliner engines changed as the 787 programs went through many stages.
- The Airbus A350 program was a standard program in comparison.
The industries’ CASM trap
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 11, 2022, © Leeham News: The airliner world measures efficiency in CASM, Cost per Available Seat Mile, and RASM, Revenue per Available Seat Mile. An airliner with more seats then has lower CASM or RASM.
Looking at seat counts, we can see that the hottest selling single-aisle, the Airbus A321neo, is closing the gap to widebodies like Boeing’s 787-8 and Airbus’ A330-800.
So it’s CASM, and RASM should be phenomenal. Or is it? Are we comparing correctly, or are these Apples and Oranges comparisons? We use the cabin generator of our airliner performance model to understand it better.
Summary
- The measurement of economics per seat makes sense for internal airline work.
- When comparing different airliner types in the same size class or between types (single-aisle, widebody), it’s the wrong method.
How Boeing is Rebuilding Engineering Excellence
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 9, 2022, © Leeham News: As described in our Monday article, Boeing is preparing for its Next Boeing Airplane (NBA). At the same time, the company is hard at work to ensure this will be no repeat of the 787 and 737 MAX program debacles.
The 2022 Chief Aerospace Safety Officer Report was issued two weeks ago. It gives insight into the work that shall ensure such failures won’t happen again. Here is what the report says about how Boeing is rebuilding its Engineering Excellence.
Summary
- The 787 and 737 MAX failures came from a company culture where engineering excellence played second fiddle to short-term business objectives.
- Boeing has now made changes from the board level to how it organizes its engineers. These changes go in the right direction, but will they be enough?
One or Two hops cheapest for long flights? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 2, 2022, © Leeham News: We tested the notion that it’s more economical to divide a long flight into two shorter flights last week. The test was a typical long-range flight of 11 to 12 hours.
We found that if all operational costs are counted (the so-called Cash Operating Costs, COC), the theory didn’t work. You gain on fuel costs, but you are doubling other costs like landing fees, etc.
Now we test the theory on an Ultra Long Range (ULR) flight, using our Performance and Operational Cost model.
QANTAS 787-9. Source: QANTAS
Summary
- The widespread idea of two shorter flights being more economical than a single long flight applies to ULR flights.
- The theory says this is because a long flight takes more fuel than two shorter flights. It’s not the main reason why the theory holds for ULR flights.
An A330neo freighter, should it happen? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
April 14, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we speculated that Airbus might decide to upgrade the present A330-200F freighter to a neo variant based on the longer -900 fuselage.
To understand how competitive it would be, we compare its economics to the 787, 767-300F, and A330-200F freighters.
Summary
- Airbus’s A330-900F would be a modest upgrade project, as all bits needed are in production today.
- The result would outcompete all present midrange freighters and give a 787 freighter a match in the market.
An A330neo freighter, should it happen?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
April 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we started a discussion on what should be Airbus’ response to a 787 freighter. We have seen in a series of articles that the 787 freighter would beat the present A330 freighter, and the question is, will Airbus leave this segment to Boeing, or will it respond?
We look at what’s involved for Airbus to upgrade the present A330-200F to a neo freighter and what performance it would have compared to a 787 freighter.
Summary
- An upgrade of Airbus’ present A330-200F freighter to a neo variant based on the longer, more capable A330-900 would be a modest project for Airbus. All the special bits needed were developed for the A330-200F.
- The resulting A330-900F would be a competitive freighter, and as all needed parts are in serial production today, it could hit the market before a Boeing 787 freighter.
A Boeing 787 freighter, which model and how good? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 24, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we discussed the creation of a Boeing 787 freighter. It shall replace the Boeing 767-300F, which is running into emission rule problems in 2027.
After looking at what 787 variant makes for the best freighter, we now compare the economics of the 787, 767-300F, and A330-200F freighters.
Figure 1. The 767-300F freighter (top) and its possible replacements: 787-8F (middle) and 787-9F (bottom). Source: Leeham Co.
Summary
- When a Boeing 787 freighter arrives at the decade’s end, its economics will change the freighter market’s dynamics.
A Boeing 787-10 HGW, how good is it? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
March 3, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the predicted performance of a new version of Boeing’s 787-10 with an increased Gross Weight as announced by Boeing (called 787-10 HGW by us). We compared its performance and economics to Airbus’ A350-900, the nearest competitor.
The comparison was over a very long route, LAX to Sydney, where the 787-10 HGW performed well but was limited on the cargo side. Now we fly San Franciso to Tokyo, a more typical route for these aircraft, looking at the performance and operating economics.
Summary
- The 787-10 can perform long routes like LAX to Sydney in the HGW version but has payload limits compared with an A350-900.
- On the typical 10 to 12 hours routes, the 787-10 HGW shows its strengths.