Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Pontifications: Boeing NewCo exec, Slattery, faces challenges March 25, 2019
- Bjorn’s Corner: Why did Ethiopian Airlines ET302 and Lion Air JT610 crash? March 22, 2019
- Congestion costs billions, but airlines show little concern March 21, 2019
- Boeing didn’t want to re-engine the 737–but had design standing by March 20, 2019
- Pontifications: Fluid, dynamic events upend MAX story March 20, 2019
Bjorn’s Corner: Yaw stability, Part 3.
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 08, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Yaw stability, which we discussed last week, has in itself no tricky dynamic problems. It’s a matter of making the vertical stabilizer large enough to have enough weathercock moment on the aircraft.
The tricky stuff comes through the interaction of yaw stability and roll stability.
Figure 1. The surfaces affecting yaw stability on an aircraft. Source: Leeham Co.
Boeing’s 777X analyzed, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 07, 2019, © Leeham News: In our analysis series about the Boeing 777X, it’s time to look at the performance of the 777-9 and 777-8 and compared them to their main competitor, the Airbus A350-1000.
Figure 1. First flight test Boeing 777-9 with the GE9X engines mounted. Official roll-out is set for March 13th. Source: Boeing.
Summary:
- The 777-9 is a larger and heavier aircraft than the A350-1000. Its wide wing and efficient engines compensate the added weight when compared with the A350-1000. Both have best-in-class fuel efficiencies.
- The “cut and shut” 777-8 has the same capacity as the A350-1000. Here the wings, engines and empennage from the 777-9 give it Ultra Long Haul capabilities. In normal route use, this capability weighs on its fuel efficiency.
Boeing strikes new pay deal with Machinists
By Bryan Corliss
March 4, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing and the Machinists Union have come to terms on a deal that will raise wages for the company’s hourly work force and help the company compete for workers in a tight Puget Sound labor market.
The two sides have agreed on a pact that raises new-hire pay by $4 an hour in all job classifications, and raises pay for experienced workers in 32 specific job classifications by as much as $10 an hour.
In all, as many as 16,000 people are getting raises at Boeing, which is about 55% of the IAM-represented work force.
“Not everybody is getting something here, and that’s hard,” said IAM 751 President Jon Holden in an interview with LNA. “But we were using whatever leverage we could to make some improvement.”
In a statement, Boeing said it is “committed to pay that is competitive within the local marketplace.”
Rolls cites timing, analysts cite poor financial condition for NMA withdrawal
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Introduction
March 4, 2019, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce last week announced it had withdrawn from competition for the Boeing NMA engine provider, citing a 
mismatch in timing between its Ultra Fan being ready and Boeing’s desired entry into service.
Warren East, the RR CEO, glossed over other reasons, but they were there: the program making commercial sense and the impact of the Trent 1000 engine challenges.
Aerospace analysts interviewed by LNA and whose research notes were provided have other reasons.
Summary
- After dissecting RR’s financial statements, with special charges, accounting changes and Free Cash Flow analysis, some analysts concluded the company simply doesn’t have the money to develop the engine for the NMA.
- Although CEO East glossed over the Trent 1000 issues, some analysts feel this was more important than let on.
- CFM, according to one analyst (and many observers), believes it is the favorite for the NMA engine selection, so RR bowed out.
Pontifications: Doubts continue over Boeing NMA launch
March 4, 2019, © Leeham News: Another week, another NMA story.
For an airplane that doesn’t exist, the prospective Boeing NMA continues to dominate much of the aerospace news.
By Scott Hamilton
Last week’s announcement by Rolls-Royce that it withdrew—in December, as it turns out—from the competition to power the NMA prompted a flurry of stories in aerospace media, including LNA.
Some stories suggested RR’s withdrawal meant Boeing was getting closer to launching the airplane.
Boeing, in January, said Authority to Offer might come this year and program launch had moved from 2019 to 2020.
Two prominent consultants predicted at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference last month the odds were 60-40 or 65-35 Boeing would proceed.
Maybe, but I have to tell you that conversations I had last week in the wake of the Rolls announcement are not encouraging.
Bjorn’s Corner: Yaw stability, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 01, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We now continue our discussion of the yaw stability of an airliner.
Last week we defined the basic conditions of yaw stability. The aerodynamic side force from an angled airflow stemming from an aircraft yaw angle or sideslip must be higher behind the center of gravity than ahead of the center of gravity.
This is why aircraft have a large vertical wing at the rear of the aircraft called the vertical tailplane. Figure 1.
Figure 1. The surfaces affecting yaw stability on an aircraft. Source: Leeham Co.
Transcript: RR told Boeing before end of 2018 it’s out of NMA competition
Feb. 28, 2019, © Leeham News: The announcement today by Rolls-Royce that it has withdrawn from the competition to provide an engine for the Boeing New Midmarket Airplane came as a surprise.
Warren East, CEO of Rolls-Royce. Source: Youtube.
This leaves CFM and Pratt & Whitney as the remaining competitors.
RR’s withdrawal wasn’t the only surprise.
CEO Warren East revealed Boeing had been notified shortly before the end of 2018.
Shareholders OK Boeing-Embraer JV; court, anti-trust approvals next
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Introduction
Feb. 28, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer’s shareholders this week approved the joint venture between their company and Boeing, moving another step closer to completion expected by the end of this year.
Boeing will own 80% of the new company and have governance control; Embraer will own 20%.
The shareholders’ action comes after a Brazilian court for the fourth or fifth time enjoined the companies from proceeding with negotiations. Higher courts overturned each previous injunction and will likely do so again.
Global regulatory anti-trust reviews are the step. All decisions are expected by year end.
The KC-390 is the largest plane designed and produced by Embraer. Source: Embraer.
John Slattery, CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, gave this take on the pending joint venture in his column on LinkedIn.
Summary
- “NewCo” will be based in Brazil and be responsible for Boeing’s commercial airplanes up to 150 seats.
- A second joint venture is planned for military development.
- The KC-390 is a focus of the second JV.
Airbus appears poised to launch A321XLR
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Introduction
Feb. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: The longer Boeing dithers on launching the New Midmarket Airplane, the harder it is to close an already difficult 
business case.
News last week that Airbus finally, at long last, is appears about to launch its Xtra Long Range A321XLR this year is overdue. Doing so will make Boeing’s NMA business case more difficult to close.
The aircraft should have been launch in late 2017, an insider told LNA recently. But the corruption scandals enveloping Airbus disrupted plans and drove executives to indecision. Launching the A321XLR was put on hold.
Summary
- Killing the NMA.
- A321XLR details.
- Narrow market.
- Engine down select soon.
Pontifications: March is a critical month for engine OEMs
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: Even as Boeing put off a decision whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft until 2020, next month could be an important milestone—not only for the program but especially for the engine makers.
Unless delayed, engine down-select is supposed to be made in March.
This is a critical decision that could have huge implications to one of the engine OEMs—Rolls-Royce.