March 7, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Representatives of the four major commercial engine
manufacturers have divergent views of the next round of engine development, either for the Middle of the Market/New Mid-range Airplane (NMA) or New Small Airplanes (NSA) coming in the next decade.
Officials of CFM, GE, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce appeared at the annual ISTAT conference in San Diego yesterday.
PW’s Rick Deurloo, SVP of Sales, Marketing Commercial Engines, had the added task of dealing with the highly-publicized teething issues surrounding its new Geared Turbo Fan engine on the Airbus A320neo.
March 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing effectively did a soft launch today of the 737-10 MAX at the ISTAT Americas conference in San Diego.
Randy Tinseth, VP-Marketing, revealed basic specifications for the MAX 10, the first time Boeing has done so in a public forum.
March 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg wants the company to participate in the aftermarket aircraft services business and set a goal of $50bn in revenue in the coming years.
He looks at Boeing’s current business, the former Boeing Commercial Aviation Services (CAS), and sees a single-digit market share in a worldwide trillion-dollar market potential. Muilenburg understandably wants a greater share of this.
But LNC believes there is an additional driver: the intensely competitive commercial airliner business faces even greater competition in the coming years. Prices are under pressure today. China is developing its own aerospace industry, which will eat into sales by Boeing (and Airbus) in the home market. Russia has ambitions to renew its home-market airliner industry.
Boeing’s new Global Services unit is a hedge against the prospect of falling profits at Boeing Commercial Airplanes as these factors converge.
March 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing rolls out its 737-9 MAX tomorrow.
Last week, I received a call from one of the network/cable news organizations asking, What’s special about this airplane?
The answer is: Nothing.
March 3, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We will now go through how airline turbofans are maintained. First, we will describe the typical work which is performed, then look into the markets for engine maintenance.
In the markets for engine maintenance, we will look at who the players are, how they are related to the engine OEMs and why the market dynamics are very different between engines for single-aisle aircraft and wide-bodies.
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 2, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The single-aisle, long-haul operations are on the increase. The new re-engined Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX generations are good for destinations of up to 3,000 nm, after taking into account reserves, winds and alternates planning. The Airbus A321LR is good for up to 3,500nm sectors.
Last week, we showed the Bombardier CS300 is joining the crop of single-aisles capable of 3,000nm city pairs, the distance between London and New York.
We also wrote the cost level of the single-aisle aircraft is competitive with the next step up dual-aisle, the Boeing 787 and Airbus A330neo.
But how do the different cost areas pan out? Is fuel cheaper or more expensive for the dual-aisle? What about the single-aisle crew costs? For clarity, we engage our cost model.
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 1, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: AirAsia X, the long haul sister of Tony Fernandes’ AirAsia, finally turned a profit during 2016. The airline, which started operation in 2007, had a bumpy ride from the start.
After scaling back operations in 2012 and focusing the fleet on the more economical A330-300, the business gradually turned. The low fuel prices of 2015-2016 finally brought the airline profitability for the last fiscal year. Read more
Feb. 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: ATR today holds an almost monopolistic position in the large turbo-prop market with 87% of the backlog at YE2016. Bombardier, once the dominant turbo-prop manufacturer, has a mere 13%.
China and Russia are not included above.
ATR had a backlog of 212 aircraft vs Bombardier’s 31. In addition, ATR had options for more than 400 aircraft and LOIs for about 70 more. BBD had options for just 12 Q400s at the end of last year.
Feb. 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: When Boeing announced it will reduce 777 production to 5/mo, with actual deliveries of the 777 Classic to 3.5/mo beginning in 2018, the aerospace analyst at Goldman Sachs immediately concluded Boeing will have to reduce the rate to 2-2.5/mo.
Since then, and other analysts (whether publicly or privately) reached a similar conclusion.
On the 4Q/YE2016 earnings call in January and again last week at a Barclays conference, company executives said 90% of the positions in 2018 and 2019 are sold.
Shortly after the Barclays conference ended, one analyst called me to challenge the assertion by Greg Smith, Boeing’s CFO, about 2019. By his assessment, the analyst could only get to 60% in 2019. Did I see anything differently?
At that point, I hadn’t looked. When I did later, I got to 59% based on firm orders. I could get to 74%, giving Boeing every benefit. But I couldn’t get to 90%.
February 24, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: After having analyzed how the engine gets stressed during different phases of flight, we now look into how engines are used. The de-rating of engines for takeoff is important, as not 100% thrust is needed for all takeoffs. If the aircraft is lightly loaded or is taking off from a long runway, with low temperatures or altitude, the engine can be thrust de-rated so that it experiences less stress.
Once in the air, the engine is run below maximum settings by use of cost-index. These actions will result in less fuel usage and also longer engine operation between overhauls. We will now finish the operations part of our engine clinic with how airlines keep the engines away from the workshops by swapping the engines between fleet aircraft.
A visit to the engine workshop costs in the millions of dollars, so the longer the engine can operate before a shop visit, the better. Read more