Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Rolls-Royces sees NMA “addressable” market as 4,000-5,000, same as Boeing January 22, 2019
- Rolls sees end of Trent 1000 issues, but a spike in 787 AOG possible January 22, 2019
- Additive manufacturing explained January 22, 2019
- Leeham News and Comment is now Leeham News and Analysis January 21, 2019
- Celebrating 20 years for Leeham Co. January 21, 2019
Airbus poised to out-deliver Boeing in 2019
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- LNC’s Corporate and Enterprise subscribers received this Jan. 3.
Jan. 8, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus is positioned to out-deliver Boeing this year, boosted by the addition of the Bombardier CSeries acquisition last year.
LNC projects that Airbus will deliver nearly 950 airliners this compared, compared with Boeing’s projected deliveries of about 890 jets.
These are LNC forecasts, not those of the manufacturers. Guidance for the year should come on their respective year-end earnings calls: February for Airbus and Jan. 30 for Boeing.
2019 Outlook: A critical year for Mitsubishi’s MRJ regional jet
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
January 8, 2019, © Leeham News.: Mitsubishi Aircraft’s MRJ should originally have entered service 2013. Now the plan is 2020, a record seven years of delay. But 2020 can be the last delay. On December 21, the program got “Type Inspection Authorization” from its Certification office, the JCAB (Japan’s Civil Aviation Bureau).
The brunt of Certification flying should be finished in 2019. Then follows the paperwork and the preparation for service entry with ANA. The year will be critical for how the MRJ project will enter service and ramp serial production.
Summary:
- The MRJ has seen more delayed years than its original schedule. But the last declared delay might be the final one.
- The project got a declaration of health just before Christmas. Its oversight authority, JDAC, supported by the FAA, said it was ready to start Certification flights with the aircraft.
- It’s now for Mitsubishi to succeed with these flight so ANA can get the first aircraft by 2020.
- Work on capacity improvements for the smaller variant, the MRJ70, is also ongoing to make it more suitable for the US Scope Clause market.
Pontifications: AFA holds aerospace job fair that WA state should have done
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 7, 2019, © Leeham News: The first dedicated aerospace job fair in Washington State may draw more than 1,500 people today, says the president of the organizer, Aerospace Futures Alliance.
Kelly Maloney, AFA president, opened the fair day-long today citing 1,100 pre-opening registrations by job seekers. She told me later that another 500 walk-ins may show up.
Thirty-eight companies, ranging from the Seattle area’s giant, Boeing, to Tier 3 and Tier 4 suppliers, were present to receive the hopefuls, who ranged from new entrants into the job market to upper-middle aged people.
2019 Outlook: ATR begins year in commanding position
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Introduction
Jan. 7, 2019, © Leeham News: ATR, the turboprop airliner OEM, enters 2019 in a commanding position.
Year-end 2018 order numbers for ATR and rival Bombardier aren’t in yet.
Through October, ATR held 74% of the backlog. Bombardier, buoyed by a large order for 25 Q400s from India’s SpiceJet (the 2027 deliveries in the Chart below), had 26% of the backlog.
Bombardier contracted to sell its Q400 program to Longview Capital Partners, parent of Viking Air. The Canadian company previously purchased all legacy de Havilland programs, including the Beaver, Twin Otter and aerial firefighting aircraft.
Viking restarted production of the Twin Otter and is gearing up to restart the Beaver.
Its plans for the Q400, Q300 and previous Dash 8 programs hasn’t been announced.
Summary
- Bombardier neglected the Q400.
- Small market over 20 years.
- ATR would like new program.
2019 Outlook: COMAC’s slow but steady progress
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Introduction
Jan. 4, 2019, © Leeham News: This is not the year where China’s COMAC will have break-out progress for the C919, its challenge to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737.
Flight testing is slow and entry into service (EIS) is now targeted for 2021—a slip of five years from the original schedule.
The C919 launch-to-EIS is approaching the eight years record of the ARJ21.
But these delays don’t mean COMAC isn’t making progress.
Summary
- Boeing’s JV with COMAC for a 737 completion center opened last month.
- Despite delays, the C919 progresses.
- Progress continues on the JV with Russia for the CR929.
Legendary Herb Kelleher dead at 87
Jan. 3, 2019, © Leeham News: The incomparable Herb Kelleher died today. He was 87.
Kelleher was a co-founder of Southwest Airlines, which rewrote airline service in the US and which became the forerunner of many, many low cost carriers across the globe.
Herb Kelleher, wrestling for the rights to an advertising tag line. The publicity stunt literally drew worldwide attention. Photo via Google images,.
When I lived in Dallas from 1985-1996, I interviewed Kelleher many times and on occasion would lunch with him “just because.”
What follows are memories about Herb I’ve written as part of my own unpublished memoirs (of a sort) about my lifetime in commercial aviation.
Legendary antics
Kelleher’s antics are legendary, as was his smoking and drinking. He was an open flirt with his female flight attendants and they loved him for it. He was an absolutely ruthless competitor, but his clownish approach to life overshadowed it. He could be deadly serious and totally irreverent.
I need not recount his many antics, his dressing like Elvis, his motorcycle riding or similar activities because they have been well covered and are well known.
There is one story in particular to tell. It’s about Malice in Dallas. (See here, one of six parts.)
KKR invests $1bn in small lessor
Jan. 3, 2019, © Leeham News: The US private equity fund KKR agreed to invest $1bn in boutique lessor Altavair, a deal that includes taking a 50% stake in the company.
KKR may supplement the investment with additional commitments, the companies said.
2019 Outlook: Irkut leads Russia’s airliner industry
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
January 3, 2019, © Leeham News.: The last year was a quiet year for the airliner side of Irkut Corporation (Irkut). It continued testing its two MC-21 single-aisle airliners and rolled out the third test aircraft.
Behind the scenes, there were larger changes. Irkut was handed the shares of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft Company (SCAC), the designer and producer of the Superjet 100. The move is part of merging the Russian airliner industry into one company.
During 2018, United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), the parent of Irkut and SCAC, started the consolidation by moving all new airliner projects to Irkut, including the CR929 widebody project with China. The consolidation will continue 2019.
Summary:
- Consolidating the disparate airliner projects within UAC makes sense. The competition is International, not Irkut versus Sukhoi, Tupolev or Ilyushin.
- Will this improve the checkered fortunes of Russian airliner business? It’s the right move to get away from 70 years of Soviet isolation and rules of business. But it’s not the last change; more is needed.
- The coming year will be crucial for the SSJ100 to find its model for how to support Western airlines. Interjet went half OK but CityJet didn’t. Will Adria be better?
- It’s also an important flight test year for MC-21, which needs to pick up speed to certificate in 2020.
- The CR929 widebody is now an Irkut project. Will the change improve the chance of keeping the time plan?
LNC’s Top 10 stories in 2018
Jan. 2, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing dominated the Top 10 news stories last year, as measured by views.
Displacing Airbus at Hawaiian Airlines, which ordered the 787-9 and canceled the A330-800, led the readership.
Boeing’s flip of the Hawaiian Airlines order for the A330-800 to the 787-9 was the most read story of 2018. Photo: Hawaiian Airlines.
Airbus’ launch of the A350-900ULR came in second.
Here are the Top 10 stories on Leeham News for 2018: Read more
2019 Outlook: A pivotal year for Embraer
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Introduction
Embraer E190 2.
Dec. 28, 2018, © Leeham News: If it cannot be said that 2019 will be a pivotal year for Boeing, this is not the case from Embraer.
It will indeed be a pivotal year.
Embraer Commercial Aviation is to become part of a new joint venture with Boeing.
This leaves some of Embraer’s military and all of its business aviation business remaining.
EMB’s KC-390 program will move to a second joint venture in which EMB owns 51% and Boeing owns 49%.
Summary
- Year-to-date Embraer sales, financials were below expectations.
- E175-E2 has no firm orders and the conditional sale has been removed from the backlog due to international accounting standards.
- Customer service follows Embraer Commercial Aviation.