Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same
By Scott Hamilton
June 14, 2025, © Leeham News: Embraer’s 20-year market forecast for airliners with 150 seats or less shows a decline in anticipated turboprops and a jet outlook (100-150 jets) about the same as last year’s study.
The study was released days before the Paris Air Show, which begins Monday.
Credit: Embraer.
Embraer now sees a demand for 1,780 turboprops and 8,720 jets. Embraer and ATR, now the only new producer of turboprops outside China and Russia, previously forecast a demand for around 2,100 turboprops. A few years ago, Embraer appeared on a path to develop a new turboprop. It shelved the program, stating there wasn’t a new engine available.
Embraer’s current airliner family consists of the 76-seat E-175 E1, the 100-seat E-190-E2 and the 144-seat E-195-E2. Officials publicly acknowledged that Embraer is studying whether to enter the mainline jet segment of 180- to 230 seats.
Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada
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By Karl Sinclair
June 14, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus Canada President and CEO Benoit Schultz is quietly confident that the A220 program has turned the corner and put the worst of its recent problems in it rear-view mirror.
Hosting the official opening of the Mirabel Delivery Centre (CDL), where airline representatives arrive to inspect and formally accept possession of their aircraft, he was definitive in how committed the company is to the program. “I want to say Airbus is in Canada, in Quebec, to stay. We’ve made that investment in the program now seven years ago with the view of the long-term partnership and with the view of the value that we can bring to our customers building our aircraft here in Canada.”
Credit: Airbus Canada
In addition to the pandemic and tariff hurdles that all OEMs have had to grapple with, the A220 was hit with engine snags, due to a problem with the Pratt & Whitney geared-turbofan (GTF) powered-metal coating.
This limited the time-on-wing (ToW) interval, which is getting resolved. Current engine deliveries, fresh from the factory, are approaching 10,000 hours before heavy maintenance checks, according to Schultz – with further improvements forthcoming.
Little known, most unknown in Air India 171 crash
By Scott Hamilton
June 13, 2025, © Leeham News: One day after the crash of Air India flight 171, very little is known about what happened. Almost everything remains unknown.
What we know
- This is the first fatal crash of a Boeing 787. The accident airplane was delivered in 2014 and is a 787-8,
A screen show of a video of Air India flight 171. The camera is from a distance and the quality is grainy, but to many this seems to show that that flaps were not extended for take off. However, some flaps positions are set at 5 degrees, and may not be readily visible in this shot.
the first sub-type of the family of airplanes.
- There were 242 passengers and crew on board. One passenger survived; there were fatalities on the ground, but the number is fluid. One news report cited a total of 290 killed in the plane and the ground.
- Two videos of the accident surfaced yesterday. One shows the plane’s final seconds as the flight appeared in a relatively flat-attitude climb followed by a slow descent into the ground and explosion of fuel. The other showed the 787 on its take off roll, ascent, descent and crash. Both show that landing gear remained down throughout the short flight. The grainy videos appear to show the flaps were not extended for take off. The second video shows what appears to be a lot of dust thrown up as the plane lifted off the runway. Some speculate that was from the runway overrun area, but the angle and distance from the CCTV doesn’t include this detail.
- A Mayday call was sent from the flight. Most reports end with this one word. A few said the words “no power” were included in the Mayday.
- The weather was clear, but it was humid and more than 100 degrees in temperature. These hot conditions extend take off rolls.
- The plane was headed to London, some 10 hours away. A heavy fuel load would be on the plane.
The speculation
- The videos appearing to show the flaps were up led to the possibility that for some reason the plane was not properly configured for take-off. A flapless take off often leads to crashes, and the presence of a cloud of dust as the airplane lifted off could lend credence to a flapless roll. Flaps up after lift off could lead to a stall.
- However, past accidents with misconfigured flaps and slats included a wobbly take off and immediate crash within the airport perimeter. The video shows a smooth climb, such as it was, and smooth descent, suggesting the pilots retained some control over the airplane.
- “No power” in theory points to a problem on the take off roll, as well as a climb out. “No power” can mean any number of things: complete failure after lift-off, or reduced power at a critical point of the take-off and short flight.
- Fuel contamination could be a factor, but investigation will look into this possibility.
- The landing gear remains down throughout the flight. Normally, the gear would be raised right away. This leads to speculation of a hydraulic issue or perhaps the pilots mistakenly raised the flaps instead of the gear.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 26.
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 13, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to improve the emission situation for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
We have examined different ways to lower global warming over the course of the series. Over the last weeks, we have summarized what practical results we can expect from the different alternatives we have to reduce global warming from Air Transport. We looked at the following alternatives:
Airbus forecasts that almost three times more aircraft needs to be produced by year 2044
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Thursday, 12, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus has released its forecast for new airliners needed between 2024 and 2044. The forecast says there is a need for 43,420 new aircraft over the next 20 years. It means we need to produce and deliver an average of 2,170 aircraft per year during the period.
During 2024, the world deliveries were 1,200 airliners. To meet the Airbus-predicted demand, production and deliveries of aircraft by 2044 must almost triple.
We examine what this means for the existing OEM structure and the opportunities it presents for new players in the commercial aircraft industry.
Figure 1. The Airbus predicted shift in air travel from Europe and Americas to Asia-Pacific. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The growth in air travel and, consequently, the demand for new aircraft is expected to continue unabated over the next 20 years.
- With 1,200 aircraft delivered in 2024 and the need for more than 3,000 aircraft by 2044, there are opportunities for new players to enter the market.
Paris Air Show preview: Don’t look for big news
By Scott Hamilton
June 11, 2025, © Leeham News: Don’t look for big news at the Paris Air Show, which begins on Monday and runs through Thursday.
There won’t be any program launches. Orders from ATR, Airbus, Boeing and Embraer shouldn’t be anything huge. The engine makers won’t have anything new to announce, except perhaps Pratt & Whitney Canada. PWC has quietly been developing a small version of the Open Fan engine for MAEVE, a start-up Netherlands/German company.
The obvious question is whether the sibling, “big” Pratt & Whitney, is developing a full-size version for mainline jets. At big PW’s air show briefing, president Rick Deurloo vowed it’s only interest is an evolution of the Geared Turbo Fan engine.
Maeve and Pratt & Whitney Canada revealed a re-design by Maeve of its proposed 76-100 seat, five-abreast regional airliner powered by a new-design Open Fan engine. Credit: Maeve.
MAEVE is developing a 76-100 seat, five abreast aircraft aimed straight at the US Scope Clause-restricted market. It went public this week with its concept, which has operating specifications that directly compete with Embraer’s older generation E175 E1. MAEVE’s airplane is a hybrid-electric aircraft.
P&W: the troubled GTF will be the best engine for the next single-aisle airplane
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By Scott Hamilton
June 11, 2025, © Leeham News: Three manufacturers are designing engines that could be used on the replacement aircraft for the Airbus A320neo and Boeng 737 MAX families.
Rick Deurloo, president of Pratt & Whitney Commercial Engines. Credit: PW.
GE Aerospace and Safran, via their joint venture CFM International, are designing the RISE Open Fan engine. As the name suggests, the fan on open to the air and not surrounded by a nacelle. The Open Fan is an off-shoot of the 1980s Open Rotor engine that was equipped with counter-rotating fans with no nacelle. The Open Fan has only one fan, with vanes aft of it that may be adjusted to tweak efficiency.
Pratt & Whitney is placing its bet on an evolution of the Geared Turbo Fan (GTF).
Rolls-Royce is developing a new turbofan engine called the UltraFan, a conventional nacelle-equipped GTF of its own.
PW and RR believe conventional engines are the best choice for the next single aisle airplane. GE believes the RISE is the best choice.
At a media briefing in advance of the Paris Air Show, PW president of Commercial Engines Rick Deurloo basically threw down the gauntlet to GE.
Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now
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By Scott Hamilton
Boeing 737-10 MAX. Credit: Boeing.
June 9, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing announced the addition of a fourth 737 production line in 2023 as the last 747 rolled out of the Everett (WA) widebody factory where the Queen of the Skies was born.
To meet burgeoning demand, Boeing said it would assemble the 737 in Everett. Plans were put on hold a year later when the Alaska Airlines flight 1262 experienced a full cabin depressurization on a new 737-9 MAX minutes after take off from Portland (OR). A failure by Boeing during the assembly to resecure a door plug led to a 60-lb piece blowing out of the fuselage.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) froze Boeing’s plans for the Everett 737 production on what’s called the North Line.
Boeing’s CEO Kelly Ortberg reaffirmed plans to establish the North Line. Doing so requires FAA approval. The North Line will be exclusively for the 737-10 MAX, which has yet to be certified by the FAA.
Boeing has quietly been laying the groundwork for the new line in the intervening year. Tooling, floor plans and other elements necessary to establish the line continued at a low pace. The company recently leased about 250,000 of space in a nearby industrial park to serve as a staging area for 737 kits.
The North Line will supplement the main 737 factor in Renton (WA), which is slowly returning to higher rates from a complete production suspension in 2019 following the grounding of the 737 after two fatal accidents of the MAX five months apart. The root cause of both accidents was a design flaw in the flight control system.
Boeing quietly returned to a 737 production rate of 38 a month on May 30, keeping a low profile in deference to the FAA, reported The Air Current on June 2.
Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25.
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 6, 2025, ©. Leeham News: We do a Corner series about the state of developments to improve the emission situation for Air Transport. We try to understand why development has been slow.
We examined alternative, lower-emission propulsion technologies four weeks ago and compared them the following week to the industry’s typical improvement in fuel consumption over time. Then, we examined the improvements that SAF can offer by 2050. Last week, we complemented the picture with the different Emission Trading Schemes (ETS) that exist globally.
Now, we discuss what warming contrail avoidance could achieve in reducing global warming.
Figure 1. A summary of the CO2 and non-CO2 Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF = warming effect) contributions from Air Transport. Source: The report “The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000-2018” by Lee et al. (2021)
New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development
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By Scott Hamilton
June 5, 2025, © Leeham News: Decades of research and development by GE Aerospace are a key element in the potential program of a step-change engine for the next new single-aisle airliner.
Mohamed Ali, SVP, chief technology and operations officer. Credit: GE Aerospace.
The RISE open fan engine, a joint project of GE and France’s Safran under the banner CFM International, has a huge fan without an engine nacelle, hence the name “open fan.”
One major concern about an engine without a shroud or nacelle to contain a blade failure is that the engine “throwing” a blade could penetrate the fuselage, causing injury or death to the passenger and substantial damage to the aircraft.
In a briefing last week by GE Aerospace, Mohamed Ali, the Senior Vice President, chief technology and operations officer, said the RISE’s composite blades benefit from millions of flight hours of composite blades on the GE90 (Boeing 777), CFM LEAP (Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo), GEnx (Boeing 787) and GE9X (Boeing 777X) engines. None of these engines (which have nacelles) has ever thrown a composite blade.
GE says the RISE can reduce fuel consumption, and with it lower emissions, by at least 20%. RISE is currently a development program. However, the company clearly is betting that this is the wave of the future. Rivals Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce instead are betting on evolutions of conventional turbofan engines as a “safer” bet.
GE targets RISE’s entry into service in 2035. Officials say the R&D remains on track to meet this date.