Leeham News and Analysis
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Tariffs, Trade, and Turbines: Aerospace Leaders Call for Zero Barriers at Global Summit
By Chris Sloan
Sept. 16, 2025, © Leeham News: At the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Global Aerospace Summit, the topic of tariffs dominated the discussion — and industry leaders didn’t hold back in calling for a return to tariff-free skies.
Airbus: “A Very Successful Agreement for All”
Guillaume Faury, CEO of Airbus, opened with a reminder of what’s at stake. “The so-called zero for zero, the 1979 agreement with no tariffs on aerospace goods, has led to the very successful benefits for all involved,” he said. Faury boasted Airbus’s role in strengthening the U.S. aerospace trade position, particularly with its FALs in Mobile, Alabama which will be the fourth largest aircraft manufacturing facility in the world: “We contribute to the positive balance of aerospace in the U.S.”
He called the current setup a “North Atlantic Ecosystem” that binds the U.S. and EU together. “If zero for zero did not get approved, how much would that have put a dampening effect in terms of orders, whether it’s from airlines or leasing companies?” Faury asked rhetorically. “The very strong demand that we see in the market … would’ve had negative impact on the cost base, on the efficiency of what we do. We would have continued to do the same, but what we have now is much more effective.”
Guillaume Faury, the CEO of Airbus Group (center), makes a point in a press scrum on the sidelines of the US Chamber of Commerce Aviation Summit in Washington (DC). Credit: Chris Sloan, Leeham News.
Capitol Hill: “A Bargaining Tool for the United States”
Lawmakers at the event recognized the political heat around tariffs. Rep. Troy E. Nehls (R-TX), Chairman of the House Subcommittee on Aviation, told the audience, “There’s so much controversy about the tariff and how they’re affecting the American businesses … but the idea that [Trump] exempted aircraft parts — Donald Trump has looked at this and said, ‘Listen, we’ve been taking it in the shorts for years from these other countries. It’s just free and fair is what it is.’”
Although Nehls admitted he doesn’t like tariffs, he framed them as a tool to force investment back home: “You see a lot of these companies now…coming back into the United States. You’re seeing more investment in the United States into the trillions. So there’s gonna be a little pain up front, there’s no question about [that], but I support the administration…it is just a bargaining tool for the United States and for the president.”
Rep. Troy E. Nehls (R-TX), Chairman, House Subcommittee on Aviation, and Robin Hayes, Chairman and CEO, Airbus North America, appearing on stage at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Global Aerospace Summit on Tuesday September 9, 2025.
Industry: Jobs and Global Competitiveness on the Line
Aviation manufacturers made a united call for maintaining open trade channels. Dorothy Reimold of the Aerospace Industries Association pointed out that the industry employs more than 2.2 million Americans, calling it “a very, very robust industry for the U.S.”
John Murphy of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce called aerospace “one of the crown jewels of American industry” and highlighted that “more than a third of world trade moves by air — cargo is just a huge part of America’s competitiveness.”
Paul Feldman of GAMA credited the Modern Skies Coalition for aligning the industry’s messaging: “When the tariff issue really started to move, we were able to pivot and build on that collaboration. We agreed on a basic message, which was we need to preserve the 1979 agreement on trade and civil aircraft.”
Kristie Greco Johnson of NBAA added: “Thanks to a level playing field for the last 45 years under the 1979 agreement, we’ve been able to compete and compete well with consistent trade surpluses. … The jobs that are created in this industry … aren’t just manufacturing new aircraft, it’s the maintenance, overhauling … that have a lifespan from anywhere from 10 to 30 years.”
Panelists agreed that a side, but crucial benefit of the agreement is “Products made domestically and overseas have to be [at] that same high level of safety.”
Aviation and Tariffs panelists at Global Aerospace Summit (L to R): Dorothy Reimold, Vice President, Civil Aviation, Aerospace Industries Association; Sharon L. Pinkerton, Senior Vice President, Legislative and Regulatory Policy, Airlines for America; Kristie Greco Johnson, Senior Vice President for Government Affairs, National Business Aviation Association; Paul Feldman, Vice President, Government Affairs, General Aviation Manufacturers Association; and moderator John Murphy, Head of International, U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Brazil and Embraer: Fighting the 10% Tariff
The topic took on real-world urgency as Avelo Airlines announced its order for 50 Embraer E2-E195 jets. CEO Andrew Levy downplayed the impact of current tariffs, noting that 40% of the aircraft’s content is U.S.-made: “I don’t think it even would be 10% because a lot of the content of this aircraft is US made. … I believe that aviation assets should be tariff at zero worldwide. And I believe that that’s eventually where we will get to.”
Arjan Meijer, CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, was more blunt: “The 10% is a growth number. It’s being paid for the customer as we speak. … Any tariff is just distorting the market and creating behaviors that are not favoring global manufacturing … in the end, those costs will fall back to the passenger. And I think that’s what we should avoid.”
Arjan Meijer, CEO of Embraer Commercial Airplanes. Credit: Chris Sloan, Leeham News.
Airlines as the Economic Barometer
Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, wrapped up with a broader take on market sentiment:
“All the noise that happened earlier in the year — geopolitical questions, the budget, questions about tariff — as you get certainty whether you like the outcome or not … people get back to living their lives and businesses get back to traveling.”
It’s a basic collision between rationality and irrationality.
As noted in the article, tariffs apply to the customer, not the vendor. They are intended to punish the purchase decision, and the purchaser, rather than resolve the root causes of trade imbalance.
It’s similar to falsifying your assets to get more favorable loan terms, or using your charity to channel funds to yourself and your friends, or purchasing the accreditation of your university so your course offerings don’t have to comply with academic standards. All are shortcuts, and all diminish equitable exchanges of value.
Tariffs have a role to play where punishment of unfair behavior is a last resort. But when they are used as a cudgel, or to coerce trading partners, that’s a net negative that can only generate damage to economies.
This is visible in the latest CBO reduction in GDP growth, by 0.5%, which is a significant loss out of the target goal of 2% to 3%. Tariff income is expected to restore only about a fifth of that loss.
Tariffs also create inflation while they drive down GDP, which is a confliction that inhibits the monetary policy tools used by the Federal Reserve to regulate the economy. Thus generating a choice between two weevils, as well as attempts to takeover the Federal Reserve.
It’s good that the aviation community is driving these points home, but I fear it will fall on deaf ears. If there is no rational underpinning of the tariff policy, then rational arguments won’t work.
The effects of tariffs are just starting to slowly manifest themselves in macroeconomic data — and there’s a lot more pain to come, particularly for the US. Tariffs don’t just cause direct price increases — they also cause shortages (as goods flow elsewhere), and rising unemployment (as firms lose competitive margin).
In the aviation discussion, let’s not forget the effect of tariffs on materials (aluminum, steel, copper,…). Here’s an article from yesterday regarding the pain that such tariffs are inflicting on the US auto industry:
“U.S. Automakers Navigate Rising Metal Costs and Supply Woes”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Automakers-Navigate-Rising-Metal-Costs-and-Supply-Woes.html
Then, of course, there’s particular pain being caused by Chinese export restrictions on rare earth metals, and other “engineering” metals such as gallium and germanium…a countermeasure to US tariffs on China.
The price of Germanium is now up 500%, and the well is continually running drier.
#Pandora’sBox
From the article above — Rep. Troy E. Nehls is quoted as saying:
“…You’re seeing more investment in the United States into the trillions…”
Not at all, Mr. Nehls:
“Announce now, invest later: why investment pledges into the US aren’t matching reality ”
“We have all seen the headlines of corporate announcements of vast foreign direct investment (FDI) projects into the US. Add to this the $500bn (Y73.75trn) of projected FDI inflows from Japan and the €600bn from the EU following President Donald Trump’s tariff ‘negotiations’. At the same time, real FDI inflows into the US have visibly slowed since the start of Trump’s second term. According to US Bureau of Economic Analysis data, FDI dropped to $52.8bn in Q1 2025 (down from $79.9bn in Q4 2024), making it the weakest quarterly performance since 2022.”
“Basically, the US remains a highly attractive destination for FDI, with its 330 million consumers. However, the growing gap between project announcements and actual capital inflows reveals deep corporate concerns. Policy and regulatory volatility have made long-term investments more of a gamble than a genuine investment. It highlights that companies increasingly view the US as an unstable location, with it now more a stage for FDI theatre rather than a genuine destination for productive capital.”
https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/opinion/announce-now-invest-later-why-investment-pledges-into-the-us-arent-matching-reality/
I’m interested to see just how the tariff situation plays out, once
the dust settles.
The pattern thus far is that the dust isn’t allowed to settle.
If it begins to settle negatively, then changes are made, but they appear to be reprieves rather than directional changes in policy. That is what sustains the uncertainty, which then limits confidence and investment, in contradiction to the stated policy goals.
To the extent that the tariff policy succeeds at all, that success is due to concessions of businesses and other nations. Which is the same strategy used in filing lawsuits against the media and universities. It effects change by bullying rather than by meaningful progress.
That can only ever be a temporary advantage, because eventually people will rightfully push back against unfairness.
The really sad thing about the tariff policy is that every allegation is an admission. Historical unfairness is falsely alleged to justify actual unfairness in policy. Another part of the strategy that can only be temporary at best.
Trump is “a tariff man”, in his own words. And tariff is the tool he’ll go back to again and again. Eventually the world’ll have enough…
@Abalone
> Seoul is considering just accepting Trump’s 25% tariffs rather than signing an unreasonable deal that could harm its economy/sovereignty.
Also
> “South Korea and Japan would be better off paying tariffs and using their investment funds to support domestic companies rather than handing over large sums to the Donald Trump administration”
Seoul, Tokyo and Brussels have common tariff policies.
The agreed playbook is: minimal pushback, don’t rock the boat, make “pledges” to invest, flatter him…and use the ensuing relative calm to strengthen ties with the 85% of the world economy outside the US.
The tariffs will be paid by US-ians –not by Koreans, Japanese and Europeans. The latter only suffer a relatively confined reduction in exports — until such time as those exports can be re-directed elsewhere.
Note the recent EU agreement with Mercosur, and the accelerated trade deal talks between the EU and India.
Seoul and Tokyo are similarly busy.
In the meantime, US exports are declining…no surprises there.
“The tariffs will be paid by US-ians –not by Koreans, Japanese and Europeans. “????
The news is different
“For the year that began in April, Toyota expects U.S. tariffs to drag operating profit by ¥1.4 trillion, equivalent to $9.50 billion. It projected net profit to drop 44% to ¥2.660 trillion this fiscal year, down from its previous forecast of ¥3.100 trillion.” WSJ
Toyota warns of £7.1bn hit from Trump tariffs as it cuts profit …
Its figures came a day after the rival Japanese carmaker Honda reported a 50% drop in profit in the same quarter, to 244bn yen. That was mainly because of a 124bn-yen hit from US tariffs, the company said. Guardian
Tariifs may be bad… but the evidence is that that the costs are being borne by the vendors too
Chinese tariffs on US farm products are being felt by US farmers not the chinese consumers
The high school grade economics doesnt account for the global trading system and the old ideas on tariffs are just that – outdated
As noted, tariffs affect purchase decisions by artificially inflating costs.
So while vendors will see income reduction from lost sales, the tariff income to the US is taken from US consumers who purchase anyway. It’s essentially a consumption tax.
Which is ironic because Trump has said he’s against consumption based taxes.
The car companies are absorbing most of the tariffs is my understanding of the financials released
@ Dukeofurl
Tariffs on foreign goods increase prices for US consumers/manufacturers, thereby reducing demand. Reduced demand affects the exporter of goods into the US, thus reducing his turnover and profits (costs stay the same). This effect is ameliorated when the exporter finds an alternative market.
Chinese tariffs on US farm products are being felt by US farmers because nobody else is buying their produce. The Chinese consumer isn’t suffering, because China is sourcing agricultural products from non-US alternatives (particularly Brazil).
Since the US has put tariffs on all of its trading partners, it has no non-tariffed alternatives that it can turn to — one way or another, the US consumer/manufacturer is confronted with tariffs.
Anything else you need explained?
Duke
The importers pay the tariffs:
> GM warns that Donald Trump’s tariffs have significantly impacted its earnings, costing the company approximately $1.1 billion in the second quarter and projecting a *total annual cost of $4 billion to $5 billion for the year*.
Americans are paying the tariffs
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G0-DcHTWcAAixl_?format=png&name=large
@Dukeofurl
That’s true, Trump has warned US vendors not to pass costs along to consumers. Large corporations can do this temporarily, small businesses cannot.
But eventually the costs have to land on consumers. Trump is trying to delay that because it will manifest as inflation.
If there is inflation, that sets up a battle with the Federal Reserve, which Trump needs to lower interest rates to combat the loss of GDP growth due to tariffs. The Fed won’t do that if inflation is increasing.
The fundamental unsoundness of the tariff policy is represented by that situation, the simultaneous reduction of growth in GDP, with an increase in inflation. Those are structural indicators that normally don’t occur together, and can lead to recession.
Every action has consequences…
FT: South Korea resists US pressure to finalise ‘Japan-style’ trade deal
Seoul balks at following Tokyo in letting Trump decide where to invest billions of dollars of its capital
https://t.co/WktoQK1grP
“With Hyundai raid, Trump’s immigration crackdown runs into his push for foreign investment”
“The raid and subsequent diplomatic crisis show how the Trump administration’s mass deportation goals are running up against its efforts to bring in money from abroad to drive the U.S. economy and create more jobs. Moves like workplace immigration enforcement and visa restrictions could risk alienating allies that are pledging to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the U.S. to avoid high tariffs.”
“Hardly a week after immigration authorities raided a sprawling Hyundai battery plant in Georgia, detained more than 300 South Korean workers and showed video of some of them shackled in chains, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung warned that the country’s other companies may be reluctant to take up Trump’s invitation to pour money into the United States.”
https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-trump-immigration-raid-foreign-investment-ddfbe7d34ffedf46a25fa648c96a0000
Fun read
– Korean workers who were detained say that ICE agents did not arrest B-1 visa holders at first, but they came back to arrest everyone when they did not “arrest enough people.” A Korean worker said that “ICE was there with a set target of 200 arrests; when they couldn’t fill that target number they just arrested everyone”
– Another Korean worker asked during his interview with ICE agent, “I came in through a legitimate B-1 process and did what I was supposed to do, so why am I being detained?” and was told by the agent, “I don’t know, the higher-ups think it’s illegal.”
https://x.com/saber_k086/status/1967440312596300261
U.S. B-1 visa is for temporary business visitors, allowing travel for purposes like business meetings, conferences, and contract negotiations, but not for work or employment.
So that a B-1 visa doesnt allow Korean construction workers to build an LG battery plant. Thats why they were illegal, because the visa they did have didnt match what they were working on.
Simple when its explained.
The workers probably didnt understand the fine details of the B-1 but the Korean companies they arranged their visas and paperwork did understand what they were doing and thought they could get away with it.
Just to clarify, the Hyundai staff were in the US legally and are allowed to provide business services and consulting under their B-1 visas.
The restriction is that they cannot be employed full time by a US company. So the error Hyundai made was paying them from the US division of Hyundai.
It’s extremely common for foreign business to send staff for temporary supervision and setup of equipment under a B-1 visa. Until the current administration, it was never viewed as a violation.
There was no intent by Hyundai to sneak workers into the US, or to maintain them permanently or illegally. It’s just part of the current crazy in immigration enforcement.
https://www.politifact.com/article/2025/sep/10/south-korea-work-visa-immigration-raid-hyundai-ICE/
Duke
Read this 👇
> You may be eligible for a B-1 visa if you will be participating in business activities of a commercial or professional nature in the United States, including, *but not limited to*: Consulting with business associates
Traveling for a scientific, educational, professional or business convention, or a conference on specific dates Settling an estate Negotiating a contract Participating in short-term training…
https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-visitors-for-business/b-1-temporary-business-visitor
I hope you’re not a lawyer!
Now the Hyundai plant is paused til 2026. What a winning!
The LG battery factory is under construction still.
There was no training of american workers nor consulting.
The visa may have been B-1 but what they were doing- construction/fitting out related work- wasnt allowed under the rules.
Has nothing to do with the employer or consulting .
Theres a range of H class temporary visas for that purpose
Hardly any were LG direct employees , but contract labour hire .
The factory is a LG battery plant not the separate Hyundai car plant close by which wasnt affected by the raid. Your claims dont match the facts
And the issue of using wrong visa wasnt just in LG georgia
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/south-koreans-head-home-more-lges-us-battery-sites-after-raid-sources-say-2025-09-10/
“LG Energy Solution has also asked its subcontractors to prepare contingency plans and hire local workers”
“…prepare contingency plans and hire local workers…”
Good luck with that.
When TSMC was fitting out its most recent fab in Arizona, it flew over Taiwanese workers to do the job — because it couldn’t find local workers with the required qualifications/skills. This despite the fact that Arizona has an established semiconductor manufacturing industry.
And EFW recently announced that it would shutter its US conversion facilities due to ongoing problems with basic worker skills — like accurately reading and understanding documentation. No such problems at its European and Asian facilities.
Duke
NYTimes: “The plant, which is owned by the carmaker Hyundai and the battery supplier LG Energy Solution, is weeks from completion.”
Abalone:
The plant which “was weeks from completion” is now paused until 2026.
Good luck to find an abundance of local staff who can handle proprietary equipments with manuals in Korean.
Where are American battery plants with domestic-made equipment? Those who are stranded far behind can’t see where those front-runners are and still believe they’re running for competition. 😅
Duke
Do you know how they make batteries now?
For those who live in the real world, they’re well aware of:
> But long before immigration agents last week raided the battery plant and detained nearly 500 workers, sparking international headlines, Korean companies have faced persistent issues getting visas for workers with *technical knowledge who are vital* to getting the facilities up and running…
It’s the US which is desperate for foreign investments and knowhow, not the other way around.
Allowed under previous admin:
> … rely on a grey zone of looser interpretation of visa rules *under previous American administrations*
Not construction workers, Duke!!!
> Many of the people arrested were *skilled workers who were sent to the U.S. to install equipment*…
Cont’d
Discrimination??
> South Korea has long called for creating a new U.S visa category for skilled workers similar to the ones for U.S. free trade partners like Australia and Singapore
============
> More lawmakers from S. Korea’s ruling Democratic Party today demanded an official apology from the US over the Hyundai factory detentions, calling the treatment “insulting and inhumane” and that this was a “serious diplomatic incident that could undermine trust in the alliance.”
> Shocking new testimonies reveal systematic torture-like abuse at Georgia ICE facility on Korean workers: pregnant woman fearing for unborn child, handcuff burns, forced medical injections without consent, and staff neglecting workers having seizures and medical collapses.
> South Korea’s foreign ministry says it will investigate allegations of human rights violations of the now repatriated Korean workers and raise the issue “through diplomatic channels if necessary”.
> The mounting physical evidence and testimonies paint a picture of systematic human rights violations at the ICE facility.
The come-back of turboprop?
https://t.co/TF20B3xlLS
ATR is just trying to head off the German D328 turboprop- a re vitalised Dornier 328 stretched to 45 seats in 3 x seating
The D328 is around 1.5 tonnes less empty weight than AT42
Let’s not forget this gem, which kicks in in less than a month:
“Trump Administration To Impose Fees On Chinese Vessels”
“On Thursday, April 17th, the United States Trade Representative’s Office announced its plan to impose fees on Chinese ship owners and operators, as well as Chinese-built ships.
“All fees will go into effect on Tuesday, October 14, 2025. In every case, the fee is assessed based on the ship operators. Additionally, fees on Chinese ship operators and owners and Chinese-built ships are assessed per voyage, not per port call.”
https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/trump-administration-impose-fees-chinese-vessels
***
How many parts/materials used by the US aerospace industry come in by ship? Seats, cabin furnishings, bulk metals,…
Try circumventing Chinese ships — China is the world’s most prolific shipbuilder.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/countries-dominate-global-shipbuilding/
Port Fees On Chinese Ships Will Sink Trump’s Energy Policy Goals
> Who will be fired when President Trump learns his own administration is subverting his promise to achieve U.S global energy dominance? […]
It won’t be long before a White House advisor informs the president that there is no discernible difference between those fees and Biden’s LNG export licensing ban in terms of the adverse impact on America’s energy sector. […]
Beyond energy, the proposed port fees will deal a heavy blow to U.S. manufacturers who rely on integrated international supply chains. Indeed, more than half of the value of U.S. imports every year is composed of capital equipment, raw materials, and other intermediate goods – not final goods. Many of those industrial inputs – from electronics and automotive parts to machine tools and chemicals – flow into the United States on Chinese vessels.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danikenson/2025/09/16/port-fees-on-chinese-ships-will-sink-trumps-energy-policy-goals/
Some alarming context for “Drill, baby, drill”:
“Shale oil wells are gushers in their first year, then deplete rapidly. Shale companies therefore, have to keep ploughing more money into production just to keep output flat, a phenomenon known as the “Red Queen Syndrome,” named after Lewis Carroll’s ‘Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland’.
“Shale wells typically bleed off 70 to 90% in their first three years and drop by 20 to 40% a year without new drilling.”
“US shale oil and gas would collapse by 35 per cent in the first year after drilling stopped, the FT said”
“Declining output from oil and gas fields means that oil production will gradually become concentrated in the Middle East and Russia, where large fields decline more slowly.”
“The US shale patch is seeing the deepest jobs cuts in three years as producers respond to lower oil prices with slowing drilling activity and greater efficiencies through consolidation and cost cuts, Paraskova wrote.
“As the price of oil is dangerously close to breakevens for many smaller independents, the US shale patch is in a wait-and-see mode.”
“The US oil-directed rig count has declined by approximately 60 rigs this year, including 59 rigs in the second quarter alone, and the Permian Basin active completion crew count has declined to around 70 active crews, down by over 25% from 2024, the executive added.”
“The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States fell again the week ending Aug. 29, according to Baker Hughes data.
“The total rig count in the US slipped to 536, down 47 from the same time last year. The rig count is still near four-year lows.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Red-Queen-Syndrome-Hits-Global-Oil-Production.html
***
Trump wants the US to be an energy exporting superplayer.
Good luck with that.
I double checked
Who’s next??
FT: China bans tech companies from buying Nvidia’s AI chips
https://t.co/90gkYDgguE
https://x.com/i/trending/1968276657543979018
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G1Cvm_2WYAAwr4b?format=jpg&name=large
They will buy them through 3rd countries as AI chips for China are largely banned
China manufactures its own AI chips…it doesn’t need to get Nvidia chips via workarounds.
Companies such as Huawei, Baidu and SMIC are announcing/launching new chips in constant succession.
For example:
“Tech war: Huawei trumpets AI computing breakthrough for China ahead of Xi-Trump call”
https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3325942/tech-war-huawei-bypasses-nvidia-ai-chips-computing-breakthrough-china
So, this is a recurring theme worldwide — re-direction of trade away from the US:
“Swiss Exports to US Collapsed in First Month of 39% Tariff”
“Foreign sales to America excluding gold, adjusted for seasonal swings, were 22% lower in August than in July. That includes significantly fewer watch exports”
*** However 👇
“Still, total Swiss exports were largely unfazed by the hit to US trade. Higher shipments to European countries — including France, Austria and Poland — as well as Canada and Mexico helped to offset the dent, resulting in a retreat of just 1% from a month earlier.”
“…Switzerland is trying to diversify its dependencies, including with a new free trade agreement with the South American Mercosur bloc that was signed this week.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/swiss-exports-us-collapsed-first-060000220.html
Fascinating:
Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve lowered the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points.
In (anti-)response, US treasury yields are, today, UP…not down.
This should be an eye-opener for Don — who thought that yields would automatically fall if the Fed lowered rates.
The rise is probably caused by the perception of Don’s continuing attempts to rig the Fed, which is further shaking investor confidence in the US.
Crazy tariff increase
I used to work in Brazil
I tried buying nylon there from local producers cost 175% over world wide price making my business to close no export possible
Reason: import tax from foreigner was 180% so local producers increased their price to 175% and keep their marketshare
Same will work for european wines with 25% import taxes and you will see Californian producers increase their price by say 22% !!!
AND SO ON