Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Consultant Presses Embraer To Confirm Large Bizjet Plans
Oct. 21, 2025, © Leeham News: From our partners at AIN:
Embraer Executive Jets leader said company will take its time before taking its next step
October 16, 2025
Embraer this week reaffirmed that it is actively studying the case for entering the large-cabin business jet market. Speaking at its investors day event at the New York Stock Exchange, a leading consultant urged Embraer Executive Jets president and CEO Michael Amalfitano to confirm whether his group will step up to compete with Gulfstream, Bombardier, and Dassault, and he didn’t rule out the move.
Embraer hasn’t produce the large cabin Lineage 1000 business aircraft for almost five years, but it is now contemplating a return to the heavy jet segment. Credit: AIN.
Dean Roberts, v-p for strategy, sustainability, and development with Rolland Vincent Associates, argued that the time is right for the Brazilian manufacturer to expand its portfolio beyond its Phenom and Praetor family of light and midsize jets. In his view, its U.S., Canadian, and French rivals aren’t fully addressing the market.
The case for Embraer to invest in the development of a business jet at the top end of the sector has to compete with the aerospace and defense group’s ongoing ambitions to directly challenge Airbus and Boeing in the race to dominate the next generation narrowbody airliner market.
The full story may be found here.
Air New Zealand Starts Trials With Beta’s CX300 Electric Aircraft
By Charles Alcock • Managing Editor
October 20, 2025
Air New Zealand has begun a series of test flights with Beta Technologies’ Alia CX300 electric aircraft. On October 17, the carrier flew the six-seater on an initial flight from Tauranga Airport before flying it 43 nm to Hamilton Airport where it will be based until December when it is due to relocate to Wellington International Airport.
The U.S. manufacturer is leasing the aircraft to Air New Zealand so that it can be evaluated as part of the Star Alliance operator’s Next Generation Aircraft program. In December 2024, the airline confirmed an earlier agreement to buy up to 23 Alia CX300s, saying that it aimed to be ready to launch commercial cargo operations in 2026.
The full story may be found here.
Korean Air Partners With eVTOL Aircraft Developer Archer
By Charles Alcock • Managing Editor
October 20, 2025
Korean Air plans to operate up to 100 of Archer Aviation’s Midnight eVTOL aircraft and has begun a partnership with the manufacturer to launch commercial services. Under an agreement announced on October 20, the companies said they are now exploring multiple use cases for the vehicle, which could includes government applications.
According to Archer, the partnership covers exclusive arrangements to operate the four-passenger Midnight in South Korea. In October 2023, Korean Air signed a strategic partnership with Hyundai-backed Supernal, but it remains unclear what progress it is making with its plans for an eVTOL aircraft. Joby Aviation and Eve Air Mobility also have Korean partnerships in place.
The full story may be found here.
VoltAero Seeks Funds for Cassio after Investor Backs Out
By Charlotte Bailey • Writer
October 16, 2025
VoltAero is battling to keep its plans for a family of hybrid-electric aircraft alive as it urgently seeks new investment in the face of French insolvency proceedings. The company this week confirmed that around €5 million ($5.8 million) in equity capital promised by France’s ACI Group is now stalled as that company faces its own funding crisis.
Through a filing with the commercial court at La Rochelle in western France on October 7, VoltAero has initiated “a formal redress procedure” to address possible claims by creditors while it seeks to secure new funding. The company has indicated that it might expedite plans to establish a U.S.-based subsidiary, even though it has its headquarters in the Nouvelle-Aquitaine region where it employs 35 people.
The full story may be found here.
I’d prefer to see Embraer enter the mainline narrowbody market — possibly in cooperation with India — to alleviate the long waiting times for narrowbodies, and to provide more geographically-distributed supply.
Just as I welcome RR’s intentions to enter the narrowbody engine market, for similar reasons. In addition to RR, I also think there’s plenty of market share for a purely-EU engine offering in the NB segment — the CFM construct is commercially satisfactory but exposes Europe to too much geopolitical whim.
Embraer would probably be (very) interested in such alternative engine offerings.
Interesting –
Similar to a BBJ setup, a E2 -195 shortened to 190 length but benefiting from the 195 bigger wings and higher MTOW Could probably make it close to the 5500/6000 NM range. Add in the Autostart and some Humidifiers and you get a pretty nice Jet.
Could make a compelling ACJ TwoTwenty competitor, which is possibly hampered by the same engine issues 😉
It seems to me Embraer over the last 30 years has been successful in exploiting their niches.
The E190/now E195E2 segment (after Fokker went out) the Phenom 300 (value for money), E170 for US (no competition), even their cropduster.
The KC390 is a bold new move, facilitated by 30 years of pork barrel lazyness of LM on the C-130 Hercules.
Directly attacking an established segment.. not sure it’s a good idea for Embraer.
I agree that the C-390 was and is at least interesting, not sure bold but not unfair as they did venture into the area that was reserved for TP .
Y-17 was a jet but an exotic one.
I don’t know I wou9ld call LM lazy (a lot of other things, no big rooter for them) but the USAF was only buying C-130 and no program continued to do anything else. The out of USAF sales are a combint5ion of what was available as well as USAF bought and good house keeping seal of provably.
C-390 was a government program though it was interesting to see Brazil back out of the original numbers ordered. A400 was not a leap of any kind, just larger C-130.
One advantage for the Herc is 4 engines not two. I don’t know its been a factor ever. It would be interesting to compare ops with one engine out for both.
The two outstanding areas for the C390 would be noise and speed. I believe it would be a far better setup than a Herc for the USN Looking Glass update.
C390 would make a dynamite AWACs and a natural Sub Hunter and maritime patrol.
Hercules orders are done by congress, not DoD / USAF..
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/lockheed-martin-c-130_b_2852603
First flight, 71 years ago.
Hercules orders are done by congress, not DoD..
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/lockheed-martin-c-130_b_2852603
First C-130 flight, 71 years ago. In terms of space, load, multirole and speed it has become outdated decades ago. The US militairy told congress long ago but had no choice.
https://www.military.com/defensetech/2010/10/25/so-the-air-force-wants-a-c-130-replacement-by-2024
This take is a bit one-sided. There are reasons for the C-130’s persistence.
Similar to the B-52 also designed in that era, the C-130 is durable, adaptable, and has a very high cycle life. It’s cheaper to operate than most other aircraft.
Also like the B-52, it’s versatility is related to being designed around a simple box. You can do a lot with that box without major modifications, and at low cost.
Certainly you can design a better aircraft 70 years later, but it has to be a substantial improvement to overcome the C-130 advantages. Same story as the B-52.
Most of the C-130’s produced today replace older units facing retirement. And each generation has steadily improved capability over the last generation.
So the decision equation is not as simple as it would seem. It’s not just a matter of “outdated” performance specifications.
https://simpleflying.com/how-many-c-130-hercules-left/
@ Keesje
Precisely.
The C-130 is LM’s version of the 737: “Our product is SOOO good, let’s just slap a new layer of lipstick on it and buyers will stand in line to get it”
Intrinsic vanity and arrogance in both cases.
And, predictably, same result in both cases — customers just migrate to a better product elsewhere.
You don’t decide how good your product is — your market decides that for you.
I think the C-130’s persistence is political. The C-130J is produced on a very labor intensive old production line with decades of unionized labor and congress add-on orders rolling in without competition. No price pressure at all.
An C-130J goes at $200mln, more than twice the price of a (superior) KC-390. If you add in full support & spares the price goes up much further.
https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/media-releases/2023-07-24/multibillion-dollar-investment-new-c-130j-hercules-aircraft
The C-130 unfortunately has become a schoolbook pork barrel program. Providing local NG units with the aircraft needed to sustain the popular local air bases and all (part time) jobs / positions, the stability they bring with them, spread out in all states.
https://quotulatiousness.ca/blog/2013/03/15/is-lockheeds-c-130-hercules-the-all-time-champion-in-us-pork-barrel-politics/
What is interesting is that the KC-390 has been rapidly gaining NATO orders. Looking at the specs, bigger bay, carries more, is pre-tubed for tanker role,flies faster higher, quieter.
https://saflyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/10-How-they-compare-the-C130J-vs-the-KC-390-1024×491.jpg
For Europe it seems the perfect addition next to the larger, more capable and expensive A400M.
It is surprising to me LM and Boeing have not been acting on upcoming transport requirements. Other than with unfeasible VTOL, expensive stealthy powerpoints. Basically leaving the market open to Embraer and Airbus.
If the A400M would have been a US design, no doubt the USAF / Marines would have ordered hundreds..
https://i0.wp.com/aerobuzz.de/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/20250319_AAR_A400M-und-CV-22B-USAF_Screenshot-2.jpg?resize=900%2C580&ssl=1
Hey, just imagine how great it must be by spending like a trillion every year! All the pork barrels… hundreds of thousands of jobs depending on them.
B-52 is good if the opponents are the goat herders.
The MIC is ossified, but when one closes their eyes, there’s nothing to see!
Keesje, still not much evidence for your position. It’s common for you to assert political motivations here, without considering other factors.
There are active orders right now for C-130s, and they used in 70 countries around the world.
Further they have just been selected as the new TACMO aircraft. Again because they can be modified for many roles at low cost.
You can believe what you want about politics, but the C-130 is here to stay, and for decades to come. That has everything to do with economics and versatility, which cannot be rationally denied.
https://www.c-130.net/c-130-news-article749.html
@ keesje
Absolutely.
Outside the US, there have been very few recent orders for the C-130J.
Basking in past successes of the program is clearly not a guarantee of future interest.
The plane is a dinosaur on US life support.
Back to the standard factual denial methods, I see. The article I posted discusses upgrade contracts around the world. Why would most C-130 operators be upgrading their “dinosaurs”?
Seriously, there are facts, and then there are opinions expressed in pursuit of the anti-US agenda here. Pretty obvious that the facts are most representative of the truth.
Not much remains of the original C-130A requirement
The USAF next step-up was the later Lockheed C-141 which is why the Herc stayed true to the 4 props and fat fuselage approach – but much greater GW , then a stretch and of course more powerful/efficient engines- themselves replaced in last 20 years
Hi Rob, while I provide sources for all my comments, you simply conclude there’s still not much evidence.
So I have to provide more evidence.
Alternatively there is the possibility that there can never be enough evidence, if conclusions don’t confirm your viewpoints.
BTW, I’m not seeing much evidence from your side. Maybe not required?
Don’t know.
The reason behind the USAF wanting another transport aircraft is the US Army with bigger and bigger vehicles.
Here is a nice comparison of military transport aircraft:
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_milit%C3%A4rischer_Transportflugzeuge
Most important is the column “Frachraum Abmessung” – cargo space.
“B” stands for “Breite” or “Width”.
A C-130K could be as long as it wants but vehicles are limited by a height of just 2.7 m and a width of 3.1 m. Bradley?
After two decades, the RAF abandoned their fleet of C-130. The last dozen or so are sold.
IIRC many have switched to other transports.
Indeed — sold them off to Türkiye.
They obviously wanted to dump the old junk and replace it with something more viable, capable, modern and versatile.
One could make a comparison to commercial aviation:
– Some airlines like to squeeze every drop out of an old airframe, and will keep it for decades, giving its interior an occasional upgrade. US carriers are a prime example. So is the USAF vis-à-vis the C-130.
– Other airlines like to refresh and modernize on a more regular basis, preferring new toys over old junk. The Gulf carriers come to mind.
Y-20 a Chinese modified version of the Il-76- 1st flight 1971. So the same as the C-130J , a refreshed old timer.
Old junk you say, when China still fly their Il-76 or others with C-5 or An 124
Left unspoken is whether Embraer intends to offer a custom designed large cabin business jet. The Lineage was simply an E1 that was modified for bizjet purposes. It was never quite on par with its Dassault or Gulfstream or Bombardier competitors on operating parameters.
Yep.
Is there room for 4 Luxury Jet builders in that category?
Nothing new under the sun, a bit bigger, faster is pretty well out, range?
Clearly it would be an E2 version. As the Airbus Twotwenty is at a similar price point to the largest Gulfstream and Bombardier etc. It offers twice the cabin space
A smaller fuselage and newer high speed high altitude wing for Embraer would be out of the question
It is sad to see the e-vtol world falling apart.
I think e-VTOL proponents are finding out it’s not about vision and a bright future, but about available battery capacity, operational restrictions & certification.
As was totally clear 10-15 yrs ago for those willing to listen..
Beating the biggest Gulfstreams, Bombardiers and Dassault on range and speed requires a new aircraft design.
I think Embraer was more focussed on the Energia programs.