Update Nov. 22: Bloomberg News has this report detailing the source of the FOD.
It’s become a worldwide sport, trying to forecast how long the widely expected delay from the in-flight fire of Boeing 787 ZA002 will be.
Morgan Stanley predicts the first delivery of the 787 to All Nippon will slip from February to 2012. This is the most dire prediction.
Here’s ours, and this has several elements to it. Everything that follows is based on numerous conversations with many sources who have knowledge of events.
We note, as we and others have before, that we anticipated more delivery delays that would have followed the first delivery to ANA due to the cumulative effect of other, previously revealed problems and issues. These will be dealt with in parallel to the fire issue. Recall that when Boeing announced first delivery would slip from December to February, the Rolls-Royce engine failure and tail assembly and instrumentation issues were identified as the causes of the delivery slip. These and other issues remain outstanding, we believe, and would have caused additional delays had the fire not occurred.
The other remaining question is when will the test flights resume.
Again, based on our information, Boeing is working with the FAA to create a scenario where flights can resume with a work-around the electrical system situation pending this fix. This would enable testing of other systems to resume. The FAA has yet to be convinced this scenario is workable, so at the moment we do not have a forecast for when flight testing will resume.