Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- How good is the COMAC C919? March 20, 2025
- Boeing CFO Brian West: OK on tariffs for now, backlogs and inventories help March 20, 2025
- Pontifications: Southwest’s core problems are not solved by business model changes-yet March 19, 2025
- Boeing 2024 Proxy Statement: Executive Compensation includes retirement gifts for Calhoun, Deal; housing support for Ortberg, Pope, and other stuff March 17, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 13. March 14, 2025
Embraer reports record revenue in 2024, eyes growth in 2025
By Leeham News Team
Feb 27, 2025, © Leeham News: Embraer closed 2024 on a high note, posting record-breaking revenue and strong aircraft deliveries across its commercial, executive, and defense sectors.
The Brazilian aerospace manufacturer reported total revenues of $6.4 billion for 2024, a 21% increase year on year (YoY), reaching the high end of its guidance range. The company’s Defense & Security division saw 40% revenue growth.
The fourth quarter of 2024 was particularly strong, with revenues totaling $2.31 billion. Embraer delivered 75 aircraft during the period, including 31 commercial jets (20 E2s and 11 E1s) and 44 executive jets (22 light and 22 medium).
For the full year, the company delivered 206 aircraft, comprising 73 commercial jets, 130 executive jets, and three C-390 Millennium military transport aircraft. This marked a 14% increase in total deliveries YoY, aligning with its guidance.
Financial results
Embraer’s recent deliveries. Credit: Embraer.
Embraer’s adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) reached $265.1 million in Q4, with a 11.5% margin, while EBITDA stood at $328 million. For the full year, adjusted EBIT stood at $708.2 million, equating to an 11.1% margin, and EBITDA stood at $922 million, with a margin of 14.4%.
Excluding Eve Air Mobility, free cash flow reached $995.5 million in Q4 and $675.6 million for 2024, fueled by strong aircraft deliveries and financial gains from the Boeing arbitration.
In December, Moody’s upgraded Embraer’s credit rating from “Ba1” to “Baa3” with a stable outlook.
Embraer’s firm order backlog reached an all-time high of $26.3 billion, more than 40% higher YoY and 16% higher quarter-over-quarter.
Future outlook
In a call with investors, Francisco Gomes Neto, Embraer’s CEO, highlighted ongoing supply chain bottlenecks but said the situation was improving.
He described 2025 as “even better than 2024 in all aspects.”
Looking forward, Embraer projects deliveries of 77 to 85 commercial aircraft and 145 to 155 executive jets.
Total revenue is expected to range between $7–7.5 billion, with an adjusted EBIT margin between 7.5% and 8.3%.
Analysts at J.P. Morgan said 2025 would see “consistent improvement in profitability.”
“We see 2025 guidance as neutral for the stock as despite the continuous growth in deliveries and top line it implies an adj. EBIT of US$525-623 million vs JPMe at US$634 million and consensus of US$632 million, limiting short term upside to EBIT and point to an expansion of up to 12% yoy at the high end and 3% at the mid-point,” the research note said.
Positive start to 2025
Japan’s ANA this week ordered 15 E190-E2s aircraft from Embraer, with options for an additional five aircraft. ANA’s E190-E2 will be the first of the next generation E-Jets to operate in Japan.
Earlier this month, the company’s E-Freighter, the E190F, was confirmed as fully certified by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), paving the way for global operations. Full certification from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Civil Aviation Agency of Brazil (ANAC) was achieved in 2024.
And in a significant order, Embraer Executive Jets agreed a purchase agreement with Flexjet including the Praetor 600, Praetor 500 and Phenom 300E models, as well as an enhanced services and support agreement.
The firm order for 182 aircraft and options for another 30 will nearly double the size of Flexjet’s fleet in the next five years in a deal valued at up to $7 billion at current list prices.
This shows that they can sell aircraft profitably. What a number of folks miss is how solid their engineering is….. You seldom see airworthiness directives issued against them….. Boeing really screwed up not acquiring them and EMB dodged a giant bullet in the long run…..
+1
Full heartedly on board.
I have said it before, back during one of our serious downturns, my favorite diesel engine mfg was working and testing new and upgraded engines at full speed (pun intended)
I was at one of their schools and had a side discussion with the guy doing the course. He said their philosophy was never to stop, they needed to be ready for the upturn.
I am not often impressed and Embraer impresses me. Airbus as well but they are bigger and less agile.
I did have huge questions on them pursuing the TP though maybe that was to keep engineers busy (you don’t want to loose them, hear that Boeing?)
I know I had clinched jaws but I felt Boeing should have kept the deal with Embraer to set themselves up for the future.
What we don’t know is if Calhoun would have ruined it. He did have a vampire like touch.
Lo many years ago I got to ride in a Bandeirante (sp) for the first time. Wow. Very Impressive speed and landing speed was still good.
The competitor airline at the time was flying twin otters (great bush plane but most communities in AK have a Bandeirante class runway)
The Twin otter took off first and we took off 10 minutes latter and passed them like they were standing still.
The Bandeirante operating airline must have got at least 4-1 more flights per day out of their aircraft.
Much like the one A300 flight I was on. I had heard of these things but man, this is a really well done aircraft. Made the DC-10 look like a laughingstock.
I latter got to fly 767 and L1011. Both were solid like the A300.
I also really liked the 767. Very solid and seemed
well engineered, and the 2-3-2 seating was very
nice.
I had a number of 747 trips, I liked the 737/A300/L1011 better.
It had the dutch roll and you could really feel it in the back.
Good thing I had a background of working on the ocean!
@PNW
Embraer enjoys a nice market segment with little competition (and none likely to enter soon). They also have modest production rates.
Those modest production rates allow them to arrest any fleet risks before their fleets grow to outsize levels.
They also have a talented workforce of young engineers and technicians, aren’t obsessed with shareholder return, don’t keep telling themselves that they’re the best, and are genuinely proud of what they are.
In theory the modest production rate is a problem as the costs are a lot higher.
They are making work and good for them.
“Brazil’s Embraer approves additional (4-year) pause in the development of E175-E2 jet”
“SAO PAULO (Reuters) – Brazilian plane maker Embraer said on Tuesday its board approved an additional four-year pause in the development program of E175-E2 jet, according to a securities filing.
“Embraer said the decision is related to discussions in the United States over the maximum take-off weight limitation for up to 76 seats aircrafts, as well as global market condition and the continue interest for the current E175 jet in the North America.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazils-embraer-approves-additional-pause-220002876.html
There is disagreement on if the E1 meets the ICA) 2027 emissions, that may be driving the orders for the E175.
No hope for the next 4 years on any government action on that.
I would love to see the E2-175 fly in the US. Porter will fly the E2-195 (or is) across the borders.
It does not seem like the E2 175 can loose enough weight short of a shorter fuselage and then you loose pax numbers.
@TW
Hard to imagine the E175-E1 stoking too much anxiety as it relates to emissions. It is a relatively small fleet in the grand scheme of things. A lot of the current E175 orders are to replace aging CRJ and E-145 aircraft. Also added benefit is that it is well in service. Airlines buying this aircraft are getting something that has EIS risk worked out.
The E2 would almost need to be re-designed at this point. This design has gone stale. Just my opinion…this design will never enter service. Four years is a program delay to avoid cancellation penalties.
And yes Porter is in service for E195…ironically they were one of the first customers (never taking any aircraft due to Billy Bishop airport dispute) of the C-Series (A220).
@Casey:
Its the emisions deadline fro 2027.
I have seen reports that the GE engines are not compliant. GE says they are.
If not compliant, then production of new ceases though I continue to think pre existing orders can still be made.
E2-175 is fine as it is, but its out of scope. Embraer had each modl with its own wing so its optimized and I think PW has the GTF issues sorted for new builds (still the repair backlog biting fleets)
Porter with the E2 has probably the most optomize aircraft around, at least per seat though range is an aspect it does not beat or match (cabin ) the A220
They are in a good central position.
@TW
I am no expert on which aircraft are emission compliant. The CF34 on the E1 are getting out there.
However, if there was a real risk to not being able to build aircraft this would have been addressed long ago. If a 2027 deadline was real, then Embraer would already be in trouble.
The GTF issues are somewhat remedied. The E175 was powered by the smallest member of the family that never entered service (well kind of the core entered service on the Falcon 6X and soon G400).
Roundabout way of saying if for some reason this aircraft did come back it would probably be closer to 2030 before it ever saw EIS. Not the least of which there is presently no backlog.
wonder if Embraer uses SPS fasteners?
Reuters
Exclusive: Aerospace industry scrambles to deal with fallout from huge US factory fire
“Analysts warn SPS Technologies fire could strain industry’s output”
“Engine maker GE Aerospace, the world’s largest aerospace firm, said it had sent teams to SPS and was looking at alternative manufacturing sites and backup suppliers.”
“A third industry source said SPS is also a significant supplier to Europe’s Airbus.”
“Some fasteners produced at the factory are also highly specialized and not easily sourced by other manufacturers, analysts and industry executives said.”
I wouldn’t be surprised if this will be the major supply chain issue for 2025
SPS 500,000 sq ft factory is still burning…..
video …aerial scene shows widespread damage
https://youtu.be/wRT9cQBgJsI
SPS Technologies annual sales is $1.5 billion but has multi mfg sites
2025 Black Swan event for commercial aircraft industry!
@Pritchard
SPS produces commercially saleable small details. Translation…they are the Home Depot of aircraft level hardware that is not a unique design. None of this stuff is profound to make generally, but there is absolutely a process to move all that production over to other sources in an efficient manner.
Unfortunately this keeps happening. The smallest suppliers can be a single point of failure.
Au contraire:
“While most SPS parts are produced by multiple suppliers, some portions of these aircraft fasteners were higher value and complex parts only produced by SPS, according to one of the two fastener company executives who spoke on condition of anonymity.”
“It can take years for another factory to obtain the qualifications to produce them, he added.
“”These are not commodity fasteners,” Michaels said, adding that there is “a lot of concern given the large number of sole-source fasteners and unique capabilities associated with this facility.””
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-aerospace-industry-scrambles-deal-211425492.html
just released…..Reuters
“Spirit AeroSystems on Friday reported a $577 million operating loss for the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with $215 million in operating income during the same three months a year earlier, which was helped by a funding agreement with key customer Boeing.”
“Cracks In KC-46 Tankers Halt All Deliveries”
“The Air Force will inspect its entire fleet of 89 KC-46A Pegasus aerial refueling tankers after cracks were found on two of the four new planes set to be sent to the Military Delivery Center, the Air Force told The War Zone exclusively. The issue was discovered by Boeing, which makes the jets, the Air Force said.
“In addition, Boeing “is taking measures to temporarily halt deliveries until we fully understand the root cause and implement an effective corrective action plan,” the Air Force stated in response to our query about the latest problems with the troubled Pegasus program.”
“The cracks were not found on any flight surfaces or hinges, but rather on the primary or secondary structures,” the Air Force told us.”
https://www.twz.com/air/cracks-in-kc-46-pegusus-tankers-halt-all-deliveries
New planes.
I wonder who the lucky person was, who got sent into Ortberg’s office, to give him the good news?
Or do you just send him an anon text, from a burner phone?
Anyone know what Vegas has as the over/under on the KC-46 fleet grounding? 14 days?
Not just new — they were pre-delivery.
One wonders why/how there was — evidently — insufficient QC conducted on the components of the aircraft prior to and during manufacture: if there had been, then things could never have gotten this far.
Nothing has changed at BA…absolutely nothing.
That is far from the truth, it does not mean there are not and are going to be problems that have not been caught yet.
There is a good discussion on the tech details in the Boeing/Ortberg/777 titled blog if anyone cares to read it.
Update from the BA parking lot:
“Boeing finishes 787 repairs, closing Everett ‘shadow factory’”
“…This marked the end of a long, expensive slog to fix 122 Dreamliners that has locked up the time of hundreds of mechanics, taking them away from regular jet-production work.”
“Though the completion of the fuselage-gap rework is a positive milestone, other slowdowns in the jet-production system remain. A separate inventory of unfinished 787s newly built in North Charleston, S.C., has been piling up due to parts shortages.”
—
“Other teams of mechanics are still reworking 737 Maxes in storage, of which about 55 remained at the end of January.”
—
“And the Everett mechanics freed up by the end of the 787 rework may soon have to help rework the inventory of about 30 previously built 777Xs that are lining unused runways at Paine Field, the first of them parked there for the past six years. Those were built in advance of the 777X completing its flight tests, which extended much longer than expected and continue today. Only when the giant new plane is certified can all those jets be taken out of mothballs, relubricated and updated with system changes.
—
https://www.kentucky.com/news/business/article301363629.html#storylink=cpy
At last a glimmer of hope..
Now if the FAA would get off the tuckous and certify the Allegris seats, certainly would go a long way to clearing out all those surplus 787’s.
Like 15 awaiting delivery for Lufthansa alone.
It certainly seems to be a positive step as regards the 787 and the MAX — although 55 of the latter still in the parking lot is not trivial.
Not good as regards the 777X: a hefty 30 frames…some of them corroding now for 6 years — will old junk like that ever find an actual buyer?
—
Who says the Allegris seat delay is the FAA’s fault? Also possible that Collins screwed up.
https://paxex.aero/lufthansa-allegris-787-delay-collins/
Looks like 6 787s already have the Allegris seats installed, so it’s on the FAA now to certify.
Desperate to fly them without those seats, just like the A350’s.
Good luck Lufthansa.
https://simpleflying.com/lufthansa-boeing-787-delivery-delay-new-allegris-faa-certification/
The FAA won’t certify if Collins has screwed up on spec and/or paperwork.
Just because something is installed doesn’t mean that it satisfies regulation.
Just look at the 777X: 30 of them built, but none of them certifible — that’s not the FAA’s fault.
It’s up to Boeing and Collins to convince the FAA to certify. The issue revolves around emergency evacuation. The doors to the business class suites are viewed as a potential impediment to evacuation. Etihad had the same issue with its 787s. These doors were locked in the open position. This despite the fact the same design is on A350s and EASA OKd them.
TY Scott…
More to it than I realized.
Emirates CEO Tim Clark on Trump Tariffs, China Eco, Boeing 777X
Interesting video with Emirates…new orders are looking for deliveries in the mid 30’s
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-03-05/emirates-ceo-on-trump-tariffs-china-eco-boeing-777x-video
Emirates’ aircraft retrofit programme cost increases to $5 billion
““We’ve had to take control of our own destiny,” Emirates president Tim Clark said on the sidelines of the ITB trade fair in Berlin on Wednesday. “I could see the problems on the horizon, so we took the decision then, and thank God we did.”
“Yes, we’re looking at additional fleet, bearing in mind that we’re looking now into the mid-2030s, simply because the manufacturers are not in a position really to offer many new aircraft to any client before the turn of this decade,” said Mr Clark.”
Pic story of female aircraft designer leading C929 aircraft project
Interesting pics of C929 mock up
https://english.news.cn/20250306/9e5d80e4b59c411a8315715299a5e82b/c.html
Cool. Thanks for that.
“Vietnam considers removing barriers for China-made COMAC aircraft to operate in country”
“Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha assigned the transport ministry to review existing rules to remove regulatory hurdles to enable COMAC planes to operate in Vietnam, the government said in a statement, after a meeting in Hanoi between Ha and COMAC Board Director Tan Wangeng.”
https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/business/20250116/vietnam-considers-removing-barriers-for-chinamade-comac-aircraft-to-operate-in-country/83982.html
Boeing Seeks Plan B After Fire Destroys Key Supplier’s Plant
“Boeing is searching to find alternative suppliers, but replacing the parts isn’t an easy task. Many might look like typical bolts, but the fasteners must be manufactured to hold up to the demands of air travel, and some of the designs are complex. They are used in jet engines, landing gear and other parts of the plane”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/boeing-seeks-plan-b-after-fire-destroys-key-supplier-s-plant/ar-AA1AoeGT?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds
…and they were made in a sub-standard building with wooden floors and an out-of-service sprinkler system…
and how many more US aerospace suppliers probably have those issues?
A scary question.
Just look at Spirit Aero…and ask yourself why Airbus is getting paid for its part of the planned acquisition.
On a related note:
““Shocking is not overstating the condition of some of our facilities,” said Representative Donald Norcross, chairing a House Armed Services subcommittee hearing on munitions manufacture a month after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/12/weapons-production-munitions-shortfall-ukraine-democracy/680867/
does anyone have info on the Chinese backlog of Boeing aircraft on order and in the parking lot?
Google AI
“The last major order from China to Boeing, an agreement for 300 single- and twin-aisle airliners, was signed on November 9, 2017”
other info
“Boeing delivered a record high of 202 new aircraft to China in 2017, representing its sixth consecutive year of more than 140 deliveries to the country, Boeing China announced Thursday.”
@Pritchard
Interesting question…I could do a better job teasing out answer…but I would say around 44 (mostly CSN) on order that are allocated to direct sales. A lot of lessors hold open order…and you would need to tease out where some of those orders may be allocated. Not many on order by most accounts.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_737_MAX_orders_and_deliveries
Oh, look! It seems that Ortberg isn’t any different from his predecessors:
“Boeing new CEO (Chief Executive Officer), Kelly Ortberg, received $18.4 million in total compensation package for the five months he led the company in 2024.”
“Of the $18.4 million he earned, approximately $16 million is in equity-based incentives that will vest over three to four years.
“His salary for the period was about $525,000, supplemented by a $1.3 million “new hire” cash bonus.”
https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/2025/03/08/boeing-ceo-kelly-ortbergs-18-4m-pay-package-explained/
And on a related note: financial performance first, safety second…
“Boeing ties employee incentive plan to company-wide performance”
“Eighty percent of the bonuses are tied to Boeing’s financial performance, with the remaining 20% tied to progress on improving safety and quality, and program execution, according to the 2025 proxy statement filed on Friday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-ties-employee-incentive-plan-221537944.html
—
Sounds like “just ship it” is back…
from Simpleflying
“Boeing’s total unfulfilled 737 orders amount to 4,772 aircraft. Applying the accounting ASC 606 adjustment to remove estimated delivery cancelations, Boeing has an order book of 4,296 Boeing 737s. This lags behind Airbus’s A320 backlog. Airbus has a backlog of 7,725 narrowbodies, of which over 500 are A220s. That implies that Airbus’s order book for the A320 family sits at over 7,000 aircraft, which is over 2,200 aircraft more than its Boeing 737 rival.”
…and bear in mind that a sizable portion of that 737 backlog can be cancelled without penalty, due to ongoing delivery delays.
Not a pleasant situation to be in when consumer sentiment is weakening. Moreover, there’s increasing foreign consumer backlash against US products, for obvious geopolitical reasons.
That ASC606 allowance is 10% of the 737 backlog — which is a very hefty portion.
Are there that many distressed airlines at present? Or are these just dissatisfied customers?
Just wait until Trump’s worldwide tariff-athon starts on April 2…with the inevitable international retaliation against the US, which may well include aviation products. Who’ll want (late) Boeings if/when they suddenly become 10-25% more expensive?
@Abalone
I believe the premise of ASC606 is to flag unlikely orders due to distress or for conditions that make delivery “highly unlikely”
Certainly there are more angry customers than that. It is definitely a difficult exercise to determine market share and backlog wrt to airliner orders. I prefer to look at the next 5 years…anything longer than that is more of an idea than a plan. And to that end, both Airbus and Boeing are sold out. Their market share is set by their ability to make planes. Even if an airline order falls out, there is very little meaningful risk to whitetails. Somebody will pick those delivery slots up.
And the ironic part is that Boeing will probably make more money should those scenarios occur. Dumping highly marked down orders for short term slots is not the worst thing in the world. Fundamentally not being able to produce planes is.
“Boeing must face shareholder class action following MAX 9 blowout”
“(Reuters) – A federal judge on Friday certified a class action accusing Boeing of prioritizing profit over safety and overstating its commitment to safe aircraft, prior to the January 2024 mid-air cabin panel blowout on an Alaskan Airlines 737 MAX 9.
“U.S. District Judge Leonie Brinkema in Alexandria, Virginia, said shareholders led by Rhode Island’s state treasurer who owned Boeing stock between January 7, 2021 and January, 8, 2024 may sue as a group for damages.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-must-face-shareholder-class-001446918.html
They just announced a return to the office and salary cuts. These reports don’t seem so trustworthy now—maybe they’re doing some creative accounting.