Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 13. March 14, 2025
NASA hit by DOGE layoffs, office closures; Boeing’s X-66A R&D continues for now
By Scott Hamilton
March 11, 2025, © Leeham News: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is the latest federal government agency to come into Elon Musk’s sights for major cost cutting, and a union representing about 1,000 probationary employees is worried about the impact that massive layoffs on the agency might have on aerospace research and development.
Musk is a special representative of President Donald Trump. He heads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which has wreaked havoc throughout federal government departments, slashing jobs and programs. NASA (which contracts with Musk’s SpaceX and Boeing, a Musk competitor) announced that it is cutting the Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy, the Office of the Chief Scientist, and the Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility branch in the Office of Diversity and Equal Opportunity.
NASA provides funding and research support to Boeing and other aerospace companies in the commercial aviation, defense, and space sectors. Airbus, Boeing’s prime competitor, has also benefited from NASA research.
Currently, Boeing’s highest-profile projects with NASA are its SLS space booster, the Starliner crew capsule, and the X-66A Transonic Trussed Brace Wing (TTBW) research project for a new commercial airliner.
The SLS and Starliner projects are years behind schedule, billions of dollars over budget and fraught with technical problems. SpaceX competes with both space projects. Boeing previously warned that about 400 employees associated with the SLS could lose their jobs if NASA cancels this program.
Boeing is proceeding with the X-66A research, the company says. Whether NASA continues its funding remains to be seen.
TTBW
Concept of the Boeing-NASA X-66A demonstrator now under development. Credit: NASA.
“There has been no change to the Boeing R&D expenditures for the X-66 program, and the program remains on track,” a spokesperson told LNA last Friday. “The X-66 model just successfully completed its first two wind tunnel tests.”
The X-66 is a former Delta Air Lines Boeing MD-90 being converted to a high-wing configuration as a proof-of-concept high aspect wing ratio design that can potentially significantly reduce fuel consumption. Lower fuel consumption also benefits emissions.
The first flight of the X-66 is targeted for 2028.
Boeing has a long history of collaborating with NASA. It has:
- Focused on high-rate, composite manufacturing demonstrations in which co-investments mature these technologies for lighter weight, affordable structures;
- Co-sponsored Common Research Models to advance aerodynamic design capabilities; and
- Engaged in multi-year emissions testing with the Boeing ecoDemonstrator program to understand how advanced fuels, engine combustor designs and other technologies may reduce atmospheric warming. The data analysis of that research is ongoing.
GE Aerospace is using a NASA supercomputer to develop the RISE Open Fan engine. GE claims this engine will reduce fuel consumption by 20% after installation on a new airplane, which could be a TTBW or a conventionally designed aircraft. GE says the RISE will be ready to enter service in 2035.
Airbus has benefitted from NASA research in the past, but it did not respond to an inquiry about current programs from which it may benefit.
Union denounces layoffs, office closures
The union that represents about 1,000 probationary workers across NASA, the International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers (IFPTE) who are at risk of losing their jobs denounced the office closures and layoffs.
Probationary employees aren’t necessarily new hires. Under federal government rules, a long-time employee who accepts a new job within the agency is considered probationary for the first year, no matter how long the person was employed by the agency before the transfer.
“We had a fairly strong sense that we were going to see mass terminations of probationary employees, as we’ve seen at other federal agencies, happening at NASA,” a union official told LNA last Friday.
“[NASA] is doing their best to retain their workforce. We suspect that the acting agency leadership understands the need for workforce succession planning. If you lose that, you’re potentially losing just expertise that will have to be replaced.”
IFPTE said that many of these have advanced degrees, some of whom have spent a decade or longer working on NASA-related projects or building their skill sets.
“Or they’re people that have basically just transferred from being a contractor and then being hired onto NASA as a civil servant or simply just taken a promotion within NASA and then the probationary period starts again,” the union official said. “There’s a lot of incredibly experienced people that are in that pool of probationary employees just happen to be new to that position.”
NASA is a place where they can do engineering and science and research that they can’t do in many other places, such as academia or the private sector, the union official said.
“Despite what NASA’s current leadership claims, make no mistake that this was not a decision made by NASA; it was made by the lawless and rouge DOGE,” the union said in a statement yesterday.
It will be interesting to see how these layoffs at NASA
play out. Good stuff on the X-66A; thank you.
Hi
Did you knew Elon M isn’t smart as people though….scrap
Everybody who voted for that madman shares the responsibility for this.
And that does what? Accountability is one thing, we are all in this together. I get to enjoy the same impact as they do. Joy.
Whoa that’s whom you voted for?? 😭
I gather you do not read the comments?
When it’s bad, bury the past!! No one should be held accountable, no need for any analysis of the past so that others can learn.
To be fair, the greatness of the age of American aerospace didn’t include a DEI bla bla bla branch
To what extend do YOU know if “DEI” has affected NASA?
Only that it wasn’t free,both financially and in terms of general administrative chaos
First thing in the morning and you give me a great laugh.
A bureaucracy does not need your so called DEI involvement.
The Maiden into the Volcano thing.
The biggest beneficiaries of “DEI” are in fact white men, presumably the less educated/less skilled ones. Second biggest beneficiaries are white women. Black/brown people (the unspoken bad people in the anti DEI claims) are down near the bottom. The whole anti DEI thing is nothing but racist dog whistles.
@Grubbie:
And how many failures did we cause because we dismissed hugely talented people?
Perhaps we would not have run pure oxygen in a capsule, rookie mistake.
I suggest as a starting point you read the incredible contributions of women in code breaking in WWII (people of color not allowed).
And keeping on Aviation, you might review the Tuskeegee Airmen the T-7A is named after.
don’t worry, it will shortly be renamed the “very heterosexual cis-gender white male gold hawk”
Or ‘X Æ A-12’ / ‘X Æ A-Xii’ depending on which hour of the day
From outside we wonder where the internal opposition is in the US for all the decrees and radical actions by this government. This seems not MAGA in any way.
And what form is the opposition supposed to be?
Riots? Insurrection? Sabotage?
MAGA is a thought process?
You forget that ‘rule by law’ once meant something.
The federal government is supposed to consist of three separate branches that are considered independent of each other and provide checks and balances.
You have some very wrong notions.
The So Called Rule of law is reserved for the well to do.
The US Constitutions for its high sounding premises, was held to only apply to well to do, land owners, ie, the tech billionaires of the ages.
Women were not allowed to vote until the 20s as I recall (I believe Montana actually preceded that by a few years)
American Japanese interment in WWII was not done under any rule of law.
Check and balances only work if they do their job, Supremes twist logic like a pretzel to make their right wing decisions.
Congress people are bought and paid for or threatened into compliance.
The current state of global and geopolitical affairs effectively expose and underscore the limitations & weaknesses of democracy as a form and system of governance. It has just been proved once again that democracy sometimes is no better than autocracy if there is no focus on the value system and morality of elected leaders, who, when act with utter impunity and disregard for long held traditions, norms, values and without any institutional checks; only create a mess of everything they touch upon. With a felon at the wheel and without any sort of checks on him, one can only expect violations of almost sacrosanct rules & norms as well as utter chaos on the roads besides witnessing accidents and destruction caused by him with his road rage, leaving only hapless victims on the roads, which is exactly what’s been happening and everyone is virtually helpless and going to be in this state for the next few years to come as well. May God bless and help everyone….
It is gonna get worse before it gets better…
Or…it’s going to get worse before it gets calamitous…then further degenerating to cataclysmic.
Well, The Union of Concerned Scientists moved the Doomsday Clock up a minute or two a while back. Nuclear War and Global Catastrophic Climate Destabilization have a challenger, a sibling rival let’s say bred of unregulated capitalism and fascism. That being Economic Chaos. With soon to be 99.9 % of all stock, land and water in the hands or under control of just a few folks, Calamitous and Cataclysmic events are sure to follow. With my original comment, I was just trying to be positive.
“who, when act with utter impunity and disregard for long held traditions, norms, values and without any institutional checks”
There are institutional checks in the system. They just weren’t applied, by other people. He got protection in the US senate, from the Supreme Court and the lower court judges (Eileen Cannon in FL comes to mind).
Those people didn’t do their jobs. For whatever reason.
Donnie is a greedy con-artist, whose motives are unknown. The people who were to enforce the guardrails, blew it.
Here’s the scary question: what checks — if any — are still functioning in The Pentagon?
Donnie replaced all the top brass. Is there still a morally-intact layer beneath that?
Was there ever a morale layer in the Pentagon?
Individually there are some fantastic people.
As a whole, its a pyramid scheme. We start out with 10,000 lieutenants. Their job is to get on the list to captain. That means most are discarded. 3 strikes and you are out.
So then there are 300 captains who want to be Colonels. When the goal is to get to the top and the rewards are to those who play the game, you get greedy politico types.
Think Patton. Effective general, nasty piece of work.
Democracy means choosing our dictators for the next four years.
….. and the rest! Hasn’t the great orange one previously expressed his admiration for Putin’s way of governing and dealing with his opponents – where aerospace instruction appears to involve fledgling-style flying lessons, but without the wings! And hasn’t he previously displayed a distinct disinclination to leave the White House when his time is up? However, I don’t think the current policy of isolationism will pan out well in the long (or even short to medium) term once other countries start the”make themselves great again” process and decide to levy tariffs in advance. I can certainly see defence buying strategies being changed to reflect an increasing non-American preference going forward, and that will surely be to the benefit of the various competitors as their raw materials etc become relatively cheaper. Perhaps there will be a “brain drain” in the opposite direction away from America?
If you give someone the rights of a dictator, why should he hand down the rains when time is up? As far back as in roman time you can see that often didnt work out well.
That’s why when writing the german constitution they where obsessed to add so many checks and balances. So that one man can never again rise to be dictator. Never again.
Well the US Constitution as imperfect as it is, does and did have checks and balances.
But, two out of three branches subverting it and you wind up with the Orange one who walks through the door.
Its ironic that they all (if this succeeds) cut their own throats as they are the next target.
Is anyone really arguing that Starliner shouldn’t have been cancelled years ago?Going slightly off topic,there are lots these disastrous projects that just keep going like V 22,LCS and DDG 1000
Obviously Musk shouldn’t be the one doing the cancelling
Agreed on Starliner even though you don’t have to be a DEInier to get there.
V-22 is much like the F-35 program. The base idea was fine, a great deal of it is very workable, then you get to execution. In this case the V-22 was reformed and then the stupidity began of not supporting it.
And there is the stupidity of pilots. The chip alarms were screaming at them for 90 minutes. Kind of like the F/A-18 shoot-down by our own cruiser, why would you land a helicopter on the Air Defense Command center cruiser in the middle of recovery ops on a carrier?
While the concept of the LCS is flawed, again it was execution that failed it. Its not the first flawed doctrine by all militaries. UK in WWII thought pulled anti tank guns were the way to go, they are not, it worked once and then failed miserably for the rest of the war.
DDG 1000 was a wild leap and failed. If you want artillery off short support not hing replaced a BB with 14 inch plus guns, of Heavy or Light Cruiser with 8 and 6 inch guns. But even a BB failed because they use HE against fortifications.
LCS program is winding down, DG1000 has been terminated at 3 hulls and the v22 has been used as the stepping stone to the upcoming FLRAA V280 Valor.
Musk knows nothing about government bureaucracies and why they are structured as they are and why they pursue programs, including his own public funded rocket program. This talk of DEI being detrimental to “excellence” in public and private institutions is a smoke screen for maintenance of mediocrity and privileges in all “white” institutions and organizations. Academic performance and test scores over the past 30 plus years has shown the disparage so-called minorities outperforming the “white” plurality in the USA. First it was Asians and now it’s the Africans. Check the results from the Ivy League and State Universities across America.
DEI is an attempt to created a more level playing field and opportunities for other than (in our case) white people in power.
I would have put my Mom up against any man, she was not perfect, but she was extraordinarily capable.
You are only threatened if you won’t work. The entitlement is not Social Security, its a white privilege position on society. Sure I had my ups and downs, but I never had to battle prejudice and I could have written a ticket to anything I wanted to do.
In the end I found I liked working with my hands and worked in what many disdain in getting their hands dirty but I loved it.
I had decent schools and a good education free of surviving in the hood. My only limitations were me.
I wish you would apply your limitations to this fine blog. Sometimes I think you’re a self appointed co-host.
I am sorry it offends you.
I feel compelled to pass my limitless wisdom on.
TW
😂 What a shame!
“Airbus, Boeing’s prime competitor, has also benefited from NASA research.”
To be fair, Boeing also benefits from research taking place at Onera, DLR, or NLR (to name a few) in Europe. The ‘Common Research Models’ mentioned was tested at the Onera transonic wind tunnel S1MA in the French Alps too.
In any case, any scale-down of NASA is a loss for the global aerospace industry.
To be fair, NASA has always been open and shared its results, and in the case of enabling a competitive Aircraft Industry in Europe, much to Boeing regret (be interesting to see where or what we would have sans Airbus)
It was their mandate though I don’t know it still is or has possible restrictions. When you compete with friends, takes on a iffy vibe (and yes, I still think of Europe as friends no matter who or what is in the WH)
Astounding to watch the ongoing self-induced implosion in the US.
You can’t run a government the way you run a business — governments have obligations that don’t apply to enterprises.
Is there any plan at all? Or is this just a revenge-driven stampede?
A French parliamentarian said a few days ago that the Court of Nero has come to Washington — he hit the nail on the head.
Its worse than Nero – or was it Caligua- promoting his horse to become a Consul.
The republican congress has just overturned the Gregorian calendar by voting that the next 2 years is legally only ONE Day , so as to allow Trumps ’emergency declarations’ to continue for more than 15 days without a confirmation vote needed in congress.
To save money the government need to back down its budget a couple of decades to match tax revenue and its T-bills roll over as there is a risk foreign governments does not want new US T-bills due to turmoil and that will jack up US interest rates and inflation. Switching international trade to € instead of $ will push down $ to more logical value. The idea of review of government cost and identify duplications is well needed and require efficiency improvements every year as industry is used to, but in a more analytical and structured way than what happens now.
Most of the budget is pre obligated.
Social Security is a huge one. Pisses me off they call it an entitlement. I paid into it from the day I took my first job at 16. I paid into it for 50 years.
In those 50 years all retirements were taken away. In the meantime our illustrious politicos were robbing Socail Security to pay for their whims.
The Social Seciuty obligations are there, they were paid for. If more money was needed then that tax should have been higher (and they should not have let big corporations gut the retirement system, Socail security was supplemental)
I believe 70% of the budget is obligations.
So, do you cut the woman off her food stamps she uses to feed her children? Do you let children starve. Do you put 65+ year old people into the streets to die?
Do you keep giving corporations trillions in tax cuts?
Do you do like Europe did and cut your defense so far the Russians decide they can take over Ukraine?
And yea, defense is never pretty, there is always bad programs, that is as old as time. Make it efficient? LOL.
You can’t cut your way to prosperity. All countries have been through it, here its called the Great Recession.
“Do you do like Europe did and cut your defense so far the Russians decide they can take over Ukraine?”
Spare us — the Russians also weren’t deterred by the US presence in NATO…or the fact that the US was a signatory to the 1996 Budapest Memorandum.
The Russians manipulated the fact that the West doesn’t want to wage a major war.
—
And, for balance:
“The Crumbling Foundation of America’s Military”
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/12/weapons-production-munitions-shortfall-ukraine-democracy/680867/
“How Years Of Decay And Neglect Crippled America’s Navy”
https://thefederalist.com/2023/07/11/how-years-of-decay-and-neglect-crippled-americas-navy/
You are aware Ukraine is not a member of NATO.
And yea, I know the issues with the US Military. But then we did not quite close up shop completely either.
Maybe we will.
Was anything going to deter Hitler?
“The Russians manipulated the fact that the West doesn’t want to wage a major war.”
I think far more accurate is Europe manipulated itself.
And I know its a common reaction, but does the US always have to be the one that saves the world? Well Western world anyway.
The attack on Social Security by the Trump administration is simply a continuation of the Republicans Social Security privatization scheme going back to 1983. We all know what that means, a ruse by so called Fund Managers to get their hands on public funds so that they can embark on crazy finance schemes (see results on private managed pension funds in the USA over the past 40 years), that benefits the Wall Street “high rollers”, their friends and political allies but results eventually in fund contributors (working stiffs) having to take periodic “haircuts”. List of pension funds that have ended up screwing the workers are endless from Delta Airlines, Continental Airlines etc., and off course as recently discussed in this forum, Boeing..
This is Elon’s style to act as quick as possible correcting inevitable mistakes later. I could understand the reasons.
Since Airbus has left the H2 target for NB in 2035, some have guessed at Airbus launching a new NB sooner.
The open fan RISE may hit TRL5-6 at end of 26.
Rise will be interesting, being 50-50 JV between GE and Safran.
Not just CFM involved, its how valid is chucking a couple of props under a wing going to go over?
That assumes the tech works. The Supper Computer giveth and the Super Computer tacketh away.
Happy Boeing
https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boeing-maintained-faster-delivery-pace-in-february-as-recovery-progressed/162150.article
Dual Post
” which has wreaked havoc throughout federal government departments”
I had to laugh at this one. As if for decades government departments haven’t been wreaking havoc on Americans and their jobs. How much sympathy did you have for all the Keystone pipeline employees on whom government departments wreaked havoc? How much sympathy did you have for the millions of small businesses did government departments wreaked havoc on, shuttering them, by fearmongering over the yearly flu?
It’s too bad people like you care more about government sinecures than the American tax payer.
Covid caused rows of reefer trucks full of bodies.
No businesses were shuttered by the seasonal flu.
There is plenty of room for disagreement on the factual response to covid. No need to make up stuff.
“Covid caused rows of reefer trucks full of bodies.”
It’s true there were lots of reefer trucks for propaganda photos, but they weren’t filled with bodies.
“No businesses were shuttered by the seasonal flu.”
Of course. Like I said, the government shuttered millions of businesses fear-mongering over the seasonal flu. No sympathy for government workers made taxpayers lives worse while living off their backs and acting sanctimonious.
Like I said, there’s no need to make stuff up.
My son worked at a nursing home. They have about 150 beds and lost 26 people to covid in the first month of the pandemic.
Happy to chat if you are willing to deal with facts.
Thank you for standing up for facts vs. fiction.
The CoViD-19 pandemic killed more than 1.2M US residents…whereas a seasonal flu typically kills about 25,000-50,000 US residents per year.
It’s amazing how the MAGA crowd don’t bother to check even basic facts.
It’s also amazing how they expect government services to just magically appear when they need them, without being willing to fund those services — even the basics, such as law enforcement, fire department, infrastructure, defense, disaster relief, ATC, etc.
Taxes in the US are already much lower than in many/most other countries — which manifests itself in crumbling infrastructure, for example. And these people want to lower taxes even further…?
@Ken:
You don’t get the nature of projects do you? AKA Keystone.
We built a Pipeline in Alaska from Prudhoe Bay to Valdez (yea I worked on it)
When it was done, all those jobs went away. No more pipelines in Alaska.
Did you know that the Oakies wanted to dig a ditich for our pipeline, cause that is the way they did it in West Texas (the welders were Oakies).
Darn right they stopped it, thing called permafrost, you can’t burry a hot pipeline where there is permafrost, it melts and there goes your pipeline (they did miss a sec ion of PF, North of Atigan Pass, yep, melted out, broke, 50,000 gallons into the Sak River (winter fortunately so it jelled and they got it cleaned up pretty well)
So yea, its the life of construction, you finish the job or it gets cancelled (and the AK Pipeline half complete had a massive financial meltdown and was almost canceled). Then you move on. If you have not hosed the economy you probably can move somewhere else and get a job.
You want a steady job, you transfer over into mechanics and electrical, always a job for people who can fix things and keep things running.
Native Americans are supposed to jump with joy when someone tries to run a pipeline through their lands and water supplies? You think maybe they did not get beat up enough already? Sacrifice for the nation?
We are also missing the fact that the oil is still moving from Canada to the US and supporting many railroad workers in the process…
Will the 25% tariffs on aluminum be the straw that breaks Boeing’s back?
No
Good news!
Boeing planes finally are appreciating assets:
Boeing plane prices could increase by millions with tariffs, says AerCap CEO
In an absolute worst case scenario, AB will grab “75% to 80% of the global market”.
“A ‘worst case’ scenario where retaliatory tariffs are executed, the price on international planes would be untenable for domestic airlines, meaning the market could potentially split where Boeing serves the US market (or 20-25%) and Airbus serves the rest of the world.”
https://bsky.app/profile/byerussell.com/post/3lkb7ho2ff72b
The situation was heading in that direction anyway — even before tariffs.
Years of scandals, screw-ups, accidents, quality issues, late deliveries, outdated products, and openly-discontented customers have started to noticeably push interest away from Boeing.
any issues with conflict of interest? SLS space booster and Starliner clearly compete with SpaceX’s product line.
Or was COI abolished for DOGE by decree?
Wondered about this too. But these kinds of obvious conflicts of interest seem unimportant these days.. Truth has dropped down the priority list anyway and it’s ok really, isn’t it.
@All
There is a conflict of interest if Musk is involved with NASA decisions. Having said that, Starliner and SLS are boat anchors.
Full on.
Actually well past a conflict of interest as Musk got to where he was on government money for his rocket and huge tax breaks on his junker cares.
NASA can’t design its way out of a can now. But it can have competition and the intent was to have that.
Space X was not the only one that got part funded.
Boeing showed you can’t part fund a hide bound elephant into success.
Of the someplace between 6 and 10 companies involved in various aspects of COTS, only Space X succeeded.
Orbital Sciences is on low blower with only NASA contracts.
ULS is up for sale.
for the sake of variety…good interview with CEO of Aer Cap
AerCap CEO on tariff impact: A Boeing 787 will go up by $40 million ‘in worst case scenario’
Discusses worst case scenarios with tariffs
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/03/12/aercap-ceo-on-tariff-impact-a-boeing-787-will-go-up-by-40-million-in-worst-case-scenario.html
Good god, I knew Donnie was stupid,but not that stupid!Instead of just bullying Canada,now the metal tariffs are universal,so American manufacturers have no choice but to pay what is in effect a huge tax.This is really very sportsmanlike. I think the EU could have just sat on its hands because this cannot possibly last very long.
We have not seen the true depths of Donnie stupidity and add into that his cognitive decline, if we are lucky he is gone in 6 months.
Boeing beats Airbus in February delivers, 44 to 40.
Is Airbus melting down? That is what happens when you puff up your deliveries to make the end of the year look good. Then the hangover starts.
BA has the luxury of delivering from the parking lot, using a stockpile of engines from last year.
In contrast, AB is delivering solely from the line, and grappling with a shortage of engines.
Wow how could BA count delivery of KC-46A last month that were found to have substantial structural issues?
“Just ship it”
Shouldn’t the inspection happened before the deliveries were accepted? What have I missed here?
The buyer is treated like an ATM by the seller? Put the card in, the cash comes out automatically?
You guys are just a gas.
Of course Airbus will swamp Boeing this year, if you can’t see the humor in Boeing ahead for a couple of months………………
Or realize it is humor.
But it does break Airbus run of beating Boeing every month for I don’t know how long. 2019? 2018?
Supposedly Airbus is having supply chain issues but that seems (don’t pardon the pun) a stretch of A220-600 worthy.
Clearly Spirit has some affect on A220 and A350. Kind of dumb of Airbus not to just buy that stuff and get on with the program. Like the A220, great deal and you pay the price of billions spent latter.
Airbus is going to have to do something as with the Hydrogen program dropped like a hot potato (Boeing called that one right) they need something to keep the engineers working and engaged.
So, maybe an A321 replacement, move the A220-500 to the hot plate project wise and use it to replace the A320 (which is less and less of A320 series production though dash numbers would be better as its the same danged airplane.
That would cause Boeing consternation.
This is a nicely written article on production. Boeing slips the 777X and F and Airbus slips the A350F to the right.
https://flightplan.forecastinternational.com/2025/03/12/airbus-and-boeing-report-february-2025-commercial-aircraft-orders-and-deliveries/
As for KC-46A, they were accepted at the factory and delivered. Maybe the USAF should have better inspectors? It will be resolved soon enough.
AB may be eager to take over those “work packages” from Spirit ASAP, unfortunately Spirit is short of like $600 million that they agreed to pay AB as part of the transaction.
So, Airbus shoots itself in the foot and has lots of money.
The sure makes sense. We call that penny wise and dollar foolish (Euro in their case, no idea what you use for a penny but its 1/100 of a dollar)
Pence?
TW
How about approval by regulators? 🙄
“600m dept to Airbus”
if Boeing buys Spirit that turns into a Boeing liability?
‘As for KC-46A, they were accepted at the factory and delivered. Maybe the USAF should have better inspectors? It will be resolved soon enough.’
https://theaviationist.com/2025/03/07/usaf-halts-deliveries-kc-46-cracks-discovery/
Boeing discovered cracks in the aileron hinges of two KC-46s which were being readied for delivery, prompting the U.S. Air Force to launch a fleet-wide inspection while the root cause is being investigated.
The U.S. Air Force has recently paused deliveries of Boeing’s KC-46 Pegasus tanker aircraft and launched a fleet-wide inspection on the 89 aircraft currently in service. This decision came after cracks were discovered in the ‘outboard fixed-trailing-edge support structure’ of two planes, which were set to be handed over to the Air Force.
https://breakingdefense.com/2025/03/air-force-pauses-deliveries-of-boeings-kc-46-tanker/
A source with knowledge of the program told Breaking Defense that the issue revolves around cracks found on the aileron hinges of two aircraft yet to be delivered to the Air Force.
https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing/usaf-pauses-kc-46-deliveries-over-structural-cracks/162038.article
The US Air Force (USAF), which operates 89 of the 767-derived tankers, has paused delivery of new aircraft after the discovery of structural cracks in two recently assembled jets that Boeing was preparing to turn over.
cracks in a “zero” hour airframe?
How can that be explained?
( similarities to the 777X thrust link issue ? )
We all know you are Boeings biggest supporter but do not tell me you never worked in a business that did not have quarterly goals as well as yearly ones or do you work for DMV for example
Our DMV works very well.
I was never an upper, I kept machinery running. My only goal was to keep the lights and heat on!
Despite DOGE’s chainsaw tactics:
“The U.S. debt and deficit problem worsened during President Donald Trump’s first month in office, as the budget shortfall for February passed the $1 trillion mark even though the fiscal year is not yet at the halfway point.”
“Government spending eased slightly on a monthly basis though it still far outpaced revenues, according to a Treasury Department statement Wednesday. The deficit totaled just over $307 billion for the month, nearly 2 1/2 times what it was in January and 3.7% higher than February 2024.”
“For the year, the deficit totaled $1.15 trillion through the first five months of fiscal 2025. The total is about $318 billion more than the same span in 2024, or roughly 38% higher, and set a new record for the period.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/12/us-budget-deficit-surged-in-february-passing-1-trillion-for-new-year-to-date-record.html
I think this article highlights quite well what is wrong with our government and industry partnerships. Why does it take over three years to develop a flying prototype of a derivative aircraft?
Lets see, you tear the wings off, remove the engines and build a structure to hold an upper wing.
What could be simpler.
And move the engines from the back to the front.
Easy-peasy.
Jan:
Nah, thats the easy part! You just pull the old engines off, mounting an engine on a wing is been done forever (well I guess since the ME262 for jets).
The old engines are thrown away, GTF put on.
Granted Boeing had an issue with the thrust links on the 777X so ?
Bad news for Boeing…and other US aircraft manufacturers:
“Tariff Turmoil Leaves US Factories Paying More for Metal Than Overseas Rivals”
“(Bloomberg) — American manufacturers are paying much higher prices for aluminum, steel and copper than rival plants overseas, in a trend that’s sapping business confidence and stoking worries about inflation even before tariffs on metals come into effect.
“US prices for the three key industrial raw materials have been ratcheting higher for weeks, partly driven by manufacturers’ efforts to build up stocks before US President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on the metals. In the process, they’ve decoupled from prices that manufacturers are paying in other major industrial economies including China, Germany and Japan.
“For aluminum consumers, prices to get spot supplies are about 23% higher than in Europe. Steel prices are about 40% more — exceeding the 25% levy that Trump plans to slap on both metals on Wednesday. In the copper market, where tariffs could be months away, US manufacturers are already paying about 10% more than European buyers, according to Bloomberg calculations.
“Such extra charges don’t take into account Trump’s Tuesday announcement that he’d boost tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% on March 12 to retaliate against Ontario’s move to raise taxes on electricity sent to the US.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tariff-turmoil-leaves-us-factories-103000648.html
remind me again why a foreign mfg. company (or US company to reshore) would want to locate to the US to produce its product when the raw materials (ex steel and aluminum) are so much more?
Because we are all going to get rich!
ps: That is inside information so don’t spread it around.
@ David Pritchard
Not only are the costs of raw materials higher — so is the cost of labor, if you can find a suitable workforce at all (ask TSMC and EFW about that).
EFW said that they have a worker qualification problem.
less of a cost problem.
Germany could for a long time accept high labor cost due to excellent qualifications in the workforce. ( with exploding energy cost here this balance starts to turn )
For the US the plus effect of cheaper energy cost is stunted if a qualified (and/or educatable ) workforce is unavailable.
Yes, when I said “ask…EFW about that”, I was referring to workforce suitability rather than cost.
TSMC had a similar problem in Arizona — had to bring in personnel from Taiwan because there weren’t enough qualified/suitable workers available locally.
Basic literacy is a problem.
So is math.
In international education rankings, the US is at position 31.
And, yet, DOGE wants to shutter the DoE…🙈
“In international education rankings, the US is at position 31.
And, yet, DOGE wants to shutter the DoE…”
Potentially the current DoE is responsible for that position?
I am rather uncertain if Musk’s “dismantling / purging established institution” can lead to any meaningful improvement.
Whiffs of “denazification” drives in Germany’s past.
the ideologically blindered in one direction are replaced by the ideologically blindered in the other direction.
The de-montage of the education system got a good push from Bush 43 : “no child left behind” ( a rather defeatist slogan see Pink.)
World shaking event, must be the 2nd time I have agreed with Ewe!
Right or wrong, the US is a republican (small r) form of government.
It was formed with a lot of states rights and only some carve outs for the National aspect (Armed forces, foreign trade).
Education was a state responsibility, Federal Government had zero to do with it.
As time has gone on, Feds have usurped various functions and while they do not directly control, they do spread a lot of money out and that has strings attached.
So when something stupid gets put on the states, all states wind up with stupid.
Instead of 50 laboratories and a best practices, its all dictated by the Feds.
Then they cheat to get testing results required because they can’t be met.
But you also break a system suddenly and its a mess.
@TW: you still need more exercise to at least not mange my name.
US Education downfall:
pushing nonelitist agendas.
leaving no child behind.
DEI, PC and other ideological aberrations.
introducing “non”science into the curriculum ( god made earth and everything on it over a week while being bored out.)
High financial entry hurdles.*
Industry: a learning by doing environment.
( IMU a formal education provides better coverage and avoids keyhole view caused failures.
* at my university (late 70ties/80ties ) the brightest and intesely engaged students came from poorer households. Rich kids where busy with dick ( or silicone ) waving/wobbling.:-)
That was in an environment of BAFÖG and ZVS. i.e. well planned and executed empowering in education.
Reminds me of the meme spreading around social media: Do nothing and win (for those outside of the U.S.).
From the linked article:
> Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports is unlikely to arrest decades of declining market share and stagnating production, if the past is any guide. The materials were among Trump’s earliest tariffs during his first term, implementing a 25% duty on steel and a 10% duty on aluminum in 2018. Since then, there has been little change in American steel output while US aluminum production has further declined amid idling of domestic smelters.
> Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts expect all forms of copper shipped to the US to be hit with a 25% tariff, keeping prices on New York’s Comex trading at a hefty premium over other benchmarks.
The import tariff is expected to “fully pass through into US domestic prices, with Comex to trade at a sustained premium” to the London Metal Exchange, analysts led by Eoin Dinsmore said in a March 1 note.
just a fyi…US has only 2% of the global production in aluminum with only 9 smelters that are at 100% capacity Also, the US has only 5% of the global production of steel. So what is 25% tariffs going to do to improve mfg. technologies and capacities in these two areas…
@Abalone
Since the US is at position 31 in international education rankings the DoE doesn’t seem to have done a very good job though, has it?
Might that indicate inadequate funding?
Benchmarking to other countries, does the US spend enough (per capita) on education?
It all boils down to the general aversion to taxes in the US: if you don’t sow, then you also don’t reap.
volume of spending is not decisive.
( look at US Health System vs other nations. )
How you spend it is relevant.
If you work it as a public to private wealth transfer ..
Add a carefully applied to the wider population aversion to elitism. “We don’t need to schooling!”
Some big countrys feel that the top 5% of each graduating class is enough to run the country and the rest just fill out the ranks at lowest possible pay. The bnp/per capita will fall way below those countries with good schools and good trade education. Still it does not effect the top earners that mainly get annoyed that they cannot find skilled craftsmen to fix their estates and yatchs. Each country choose their way forward. The average school quality will effect the nation 20-30 years later.
just a reminder Google AI
“A significant 54% of adults read below the sixth-grade level. “
The truth is, that higher education can be a total waste.
I would have been well served to go a trade school route. I am not suited to sit behind a desk nor am I a financial guy like Frank P or in fact a lettered engineer (not that the lettered engineers can’t be complete idiots)
Unless you have janitors, your high paid people clean their own offices at a huge cost.
Unless you have mechanics, your heating system, your cooling system and your power are failed and no one can do the work needed (let alone the computers melting down)
People look at a fire sprinkler and do not realize the miles of pips, vales, alarms and a fire pump to move the water. All that requires repair or maint (maint is a small part of it if you do your job). Things break, I spent a career fixing those things.
Buildings have to be constructed. It does not take a PHD to install a beam.
US has decided a degree (or had) was the end all to be all. But those degrees are often pursued in fields that don’t pay anything because they ain’t worth anything. But they cost 100k or 200k to complete.
I know of one guy whose whole field of study was Dante’s Inferno. Phew, who cares? It sure does not keep the power on.
The important part is to identify ALL the people in your country who have base talent (that includes districts in Watts that are basically war zones) and get them the education that works for engineers and computer techs.
Shunt people like me off into the trades where we can prosper.
And its not that I am not educated, I am. But its not been done any course that gets me be a doctorate or PHD. Educated and well read are not the same things.
Google AI “In 2024, a record high of around 10.59 million students graduated from undergraduate programs at public colleges and universities in China. That number was more than double as high as the number of degrees earned at all levels of higher education in the United States.”
“China is consistently ranked #1 in math by the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) and the International Mathematical Olympiad. ”
“The PISA is a global test that measures math, reading, and science skills in 15-year-olds. In 2018, China scored 591 points on the PISA, with Singapore, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea following close behind. ” (note no US)
In the race for the lead in technology and higher skill jobs, you need to read, write, math and science skills.
Google AI “What is China’s current literacy rate? The literacy rate reached 99.83% in 2021”
just a reminder Google AI
“A significant 54% of adults read below the sixth-grade level. “
The US will not maintain being global leader with sixth grade level of literacy skills
Very true the last.
At what price does China and those countries get those results?
I understand there is some brutal emotional damage.
@ Transworld
“I understand there is some brutal emotional damage”
No need for drama — it’s just a matter of proper funding.
The one suffering from ‘brutal emotional damage’ has their head in the sand coping.
“.. At what price ..” or “China $xyz, but at what cost”
is an established longstanding disinformation campaign https://www.google.com/search?q=china+achieves+…+but+at+what+cost.
I guess it’s a big deal if
even Dalio talked about this
https://x.com/GaryStoneSWS/status/1894395148773331238
Not good sign if Americans are serious to on-shore “high-tech” manufacturing, for like modern ship building (forget about chips, nope — not “freedom fries”), though the Secretary of Commerce said Americans should make toys and sneakers themselves 😱
But Mattel CEO has rejected the idea of making their products in the U.S. Whoops!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GmGZn0_X0AACBRA?format=jpg&name=large
Let’s see which states sit at the bottom of education ranking and which are red states:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GlhqJz8acAAnDkE?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gl2CzNkbwAAHmsW?format=jpg&name=large
Sliding away a bit from aerospace (sorry Scott..), but aerospace is per definition international / multinational strategic business and governments have always closely involved.
On the political side I think in the Western world we see everywhere populist parties with bold right wing nationalist messaging and the usual schoolbook enemies, immigrants, woke, left, religions, LHBTQ, others etc. to be defeated.
In most western countries these parties / individuals gained a lot of votes but have to compromise to form majorities for government or are sidelined by other majorities.
In the US the Trump clan gained absolute power and immediately started attacking, excluding, firing, insulting the opposition, justice, old friends. In recent weeks they were spreading so many acquisitions, untruths, populist decrees everyone seems flabbergasted/ dizzy, hampering regrouping.
Thing is, we all know our American friends and they mostly share the same values, hopes and needs and they’ll right the ship. Trump already gets polls, intel and feedback not meeting his expectations and assumptions, he’ll adjust.
On top I think EC, S America and China will cozy up a bit, Donald will protest and gets invited to discuss, get his priorities right, compromise in a decent way.
Your assertion/fantasy that “all will work out in the end” assumes that we’re dealing with a rational person.
The world is full of irrational people…including in positions of power.
Trump seems determined to go ahead, little sign of turning back.
NYTimes
Trump’s Big Bet: Americans Will Tolerate Economic Downturn to Restore Manufacturing
Remember farmers of the mid West who were hurt during Trump 1.0 trade war continued to vote for Trump in 2024. Election slogans and misunderstanding of the world work wonders in the US.
I have seen many on social media who insist it’s high tariffs of 1870 to 1900 that brought industrialization to the U.S. (from various backgrounds). Nothing will change until they bang their heads against the wall and crushed by reality. Bye bye the good old America, those days were gone.
SpaceNews: Boeing remains committed to space business
It just goes on and on…🙈
“FAA to mandate 787 forward-pressure bulkhead inspections”
“Administration plans to require airlines to inspect 787 forward-pressure bulkheads to address a concern involving gaps caused by manufacturing defects.”
https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/faa-to-mandate-787-forward-pressure-bulkhead-inspections/162205.article
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/faa-proposes-inspection-of-boeing-787-dreamliners-key-component-93CH-3927445
Some background:
“In 2023, Cuevas was contracted by an aviation staffing company to do repair work for Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. at a Boeing hangar in Everett, Washington, and later at a Spirit supplier. He alleged that he witnessed holes being improperly drilled on the 787 bulkhead in a way that deviated from Boeing’s manufacturing specifications. The changes were made without Boeing’s permission, the lawyers said.”
“The “unauthorized change” caused fasteners to not fit properly into those holes, “seriously undermining the integrity of the aircraft,” his attorneys said in a whistleblower complaint filed with the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration that was made public on Wednesday. His allegations were also laid out in a separate complaint filed with the Federal Aviation Administration.”
https://time.com/6992821/boeing-spirit-whistleblower-787-richard-cuevas-retaliation/
https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/278082231/boeing-ties-employee-incentive-plan-to-company-wide-performance
Good to know all corporations use the same play book. Years back our section hit all the performance metrics, which were based on site location not anything else.
The other two sections in far different locations failed. So they announced while we did great, we did not get the bonus.
Gives you a warm fuzzy feeling and enhances loyalty for sure.
From your link:
“Under the new structure, 80 percent of bonuses will be based on Boeing’s financial performance, while the remaining 20 percent will depend on improvements in safety, quality, and program execution.”
—
So, at Boeing, financial performance is 4 times more important than safety, quality and program execution…and that gives you “a warm fuzzy feeling”…?
Obviously you don’t get sarcasm.
Nor do you read the surrounding writing that puts it into context.
Another example of how paper audits do not work.
https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/italian-authorities-unveil-aerospace-fraud-thousands-of-faulty-parts-in-boeing-787-jets-prompting-faa-inspections-and-global-safety-warnings-new-updates-you-need-to-know/
And clearly Boeing system failed.
From your link:
“Boeing maintains that its comprehensive quality management system, bolstered by supplier audits and third-party certifications, is effective.”
🙈
Yea that is beyond funny.
Spit into the face of a Hurricane and wonder why you have spit on you.
Reuters: How faulty parts on Boeing’s 787 jets flew below the radar in Italy
> After performing material inspections on the components, investigators allege MPS manufactured 539 below-grade floors for Boeing that were supplied via Leonardo, according to a confidential document prepared by prosecutors.
The faulty floor fittings ended up in as many as 477 jets still in service, the document said, a handful more than the potential population of affected jets cited by the FAA.
In the event of an emergency landing, the lower-quality floor fittings could lead to a collapse of the jet’s floor, aerospace experts who tested the parts on behalf of prosecutors said in the document.
The FAA has raised a similar worst-case scenario, adding it would need multiple adjacent parts to fail simultaneously.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/faulty-parts-boeings-787-jets-060749485.html
If you read the link I put down, this is no more than a repeat. Well done.
My issue is not that Boeing messed up, Leonardo messed up.
Well, Boeing messed up, they are not requiring inspections, but then that was Boeing MO before. Hopefully under Ortberg its changing.
Years back they built a 747 sized Hangar in Anchorage (I kept it running). The first steel package for the frame was found deficient for a Seismic 4 area.
When the supplier was asked why they did not meet the spec, it was in the requirements the comment as an all time all too good.
Sure we saw the spec, but you had no inspection requirement to prove it. We build solid low cost stuff. If you want inspections, go to firm X, they do the fancy engineering.
Without a requirement for a Weld X ray in this case by a third party, the spec is meaningless.
Every welded joint on the Alaska Pipeline was X Ray inspected, by a third party. Then it was analyzed to be sure it met the weld penetration spec. That is how inspections should work. Paper means nothing, all due nods to ISO 9000.
FAA was the same at the Renton factory. Well the paperwork was in order. Dumb, totally dumb.
“My issue is not that Boeing messed up, Leonardo messed up.”
Of course Boeing messed up — it’s their name on the side of the plane.
—
#Built_to_a_price 🙈
That is one view. Leonardo can and should have their own protocols that exceed anything Boeing put out.
Boeing holds the ultimate blame but Leonardo is not excused. They want to play in the big league they should execute like it.
Italy probably still working on McDonnell Douglas specs
A memorable trip of your lifetime for most
737-800
https://x.com/steve_schilsky/status/1900339914178240515
Audio reveals panic moments before American Airlines plane engine bursts into flames
Dozens of passengers are forced to stand on the wing of the plane
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/american-airlines-flight-on-fire-denver
“Airline pilot unions split on response to a 737 MAX engine flaw that caused dense, toxic smoke on two flights
Scully weighs in
https://t.co/Se0RC2dV5W
https://x.com/dominicgates/status/1900538363758924196
“Scully weighs in”
so it has already made its way into the FBI X-files?
SCNR!
Sully’s argument appears correct:
even with very low probability but with enough traffic
chances for an event increase : they happen.
caveat: in a range of cases protective measures cause fall out on their own.
there is an interesting parallel:
in (cancer) screening you have false positives and false negatives.
with a rather low rate of real positives you overlook a small number of cases ( smaller than the actual case cohorte )
BUT on the false positives side your cohorte is the full range of tested persons. i.e. even with 2..3 percent false positives your indicated positives are dominated by the false positives.
Like the Reagon crash and NTSB, all those close calls, not a matter of if, its when.
And everyone puts their head in the sand.
That Seattle Times article is worth a thorough reading. Thanks for the link.
#shouldbefine
“Just ship it”
We know from the BA bonus link posted above by @Transworld that, at BA, financial performance is (four times) more important than safety.
So, if you think you can get away with it, just fly it.
🙈
That is why you have AHJ, its not exclusive to Boeing.
But Boeing bashing and US bashing is entertainment for some, quite tiresome and predictable.
As for this issue being “rare”- it has already happened twice in ten months.
Oof.
Yea, seriously ugly.
> U.S. consumer and business confidence has weakened over the fallout from tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump and threats of additional levies, and increasing concerns about higher prices. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s closely followed GDPNow tracker suggests the economy could shrink in the first three months of the year.
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2025-03-11/us-airline-stocks-tumble-as-deltas-forecast-cut-spooks-investors
How is Hungry doing these days?
From blood on Wall Street to blood on the street
This is great news! Warms the cockles of my heart. SKF became our go to bearing. Fafnir was good until bought out by Timken. Never had a problem with an SKF bearing (I installed lots and lots of those into electric motors ). Our local rep sold us a bearing heater at cost because they wanted feedback on it (SKF brand though no idea if they made it, but it was fantastic – huge leap up from using a torch to heat bearings (interference fit so you had to bet them up to 200 to 220 deg on the inner race to slide on)
https://verticalmag.com/press-releases/boeing-and-skf-aerospace-announce-expanded-partnership/
Looking forward to seeing how this is going to play out
FT: Europe weighs Trump risk to its US weapons systems
… “many European governments are feeling buyers’ remorse for decades of US arms purchases that have left them dependent on Washington for the continued functioning of their weaponry.”
Trump is transactional. While I don’t blame the worry, he likes to make a big deal about making money.
Its certainly not going to spur any US purchases as the worry is being cozy with the Russkies.
I never thought to see that let alone a significant portion of his base just fine with it.
Truly strange times.
We have a number of special elections coming up, those will be trends to watch.
Fully revealed how the economic impact is going to go, that can flip seats in even red republican districts. One state race a Democrat won in a severely Red district.
In the meantime, arms deals with US not going to be on top of anyone’s list. A lot of US systems now have serious competition.
F-15EX is one no one can match range or payload. Kind of like the SU series, modernized. C-130 has the C-390 for competition now. Chinook is unmatched as is the CH-53E (also in cost). Only a couple countries took up the V-22.
F/A-18 lost out to the Rafale Navy version in India, that was a puzzle as its not a carrier designed fighter though India has some base of Rafale in their Air Force.
P-8 and E-7 stand alone.
“P-8 and E-7 stand alone”
There are alternatives.
The Airbus C-295 is available in AEWC and ASW/ASuW versions.
The Embraer C-390 is available in an ASuW/MPA version.
There’a also a Saab 340 AEWC.
And, of course, Airbus is now developing the A321 MPA.
Maybe not the same as the offerings from BA, but they remove the risk of depending on an adversary.
That’s now the new game in town: reduce dependence, even if it means having to adjust to different tech. Don’t be surprised to see big fleet/order revisions as a result.
Rafale was specifically designed for carrier operations
There’s a joke that the Rafael is too big for IN aircraft carriers
Hi @TW Is it true that there’re only two, I repeat, only two* F-15EX delivered to operational base (in like four years)??
P8 has the much better and more modern Japanese P1 as a competing alternative that is in production. Due to Japanese past reluctance to exporting its weapons, many nations overlook what they produce indigenously.
With regards to the E7 there are a number of alternative platforms that can carry a similar sized airborne radar starting with the obvious Airbus commercial line up to the SAAB Erieye radars on the large Bombardier G6000/6500 business jets (Globaleye).
Now that Trump’s America is turning into an unreliable partner, many of these off the shelf weapon systems and platforms in the “Western” alliance are going to be preferred over the USA offerings because there is no longer an incentive to keep America “sweet” by paying the tax of procuring USA systems to keep the USA as a friend and ally.
@ Pedro
Yes, indeed — it’s the talk of the day here in the EU.
Poland is a test case: it wants more fighter jets in addition to the ones already ordered, and is considering the Eurofighter Typhoon. In theory, more F35s are also an option, but that would only throw good money after bad in terms of increased vulnerability.
Same applies to Apache helicopters: I doubt there’ll be any new orders from Europe. Germany has elected to use modified Airbus H145M helicopters (it ordered 82 of them), based on observations made in Ukraine. Other countries will be watching that.
You can also forget new orders for the Patriot missile system, in view of the recent denial of replenishments to Ukraine: instead, there’s renewed interest in Europe’s SAMP/T and IRIS-T systems.
EutelSat is also pitching a replacement to Starlink.
Pandora’s box has been opened…and it won’t be closing again.
https://kyivindependent.com/germany-should-lessen-reliance-on-us-weapons-amid-shifting-politics-airbus-defense-chief-says/
@ Pedro
Some Canadian news on this topic:
“Canada is actively looking at potential alternatives to the U.S.-built F-35 stealth fighter and will hold conversations with rival aircraft makers, Defence Minister Bill Blair said late Friday, just hours after being reappointed to the post as part of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s new cabinet.
“The remarks came one day after Portugal signalled it was planning to ditch its acquisition of the high-tech warplane.”
“There has been a groundswell of support among Canadians to kill the $19-billion purchase and find aircraft other than those manufactured and maintained in the United States.”
“Blair is suggesting that the first F-35s might be accepted and the remainder of the fleet would be made up of aircraft from European suppliers, such as the Swedish-built Saab Gripen, which finished second in the competition.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/f35-blair-trump-1.7484477
Candada would be far better off with any fighter including an SU-35 than the F-35. I would not blame them for that let alone the economic insanity going on. Good neighbors should not be treated like that. Both sides make fun of each other but prior it was like your collage team against mine.
F-35 is a costly bird to own and Candada does not have the resources for everything. they should focus on one key area.
But……… they also have a industrial footprint in the F-35 program as one of the founding member’s and the Orange one would retaliate and kick them out.
Tough call for them.
Thx @Abalone
The Griffin may have to re-engine to de-A
The Gripen has a Swedish-manufactured engine, made under licence from GE. Under the current circumstances, that is, indeed, an issue.
The Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale don’t have this problem.
Time for SAAB to start working on switching the Gripen from the GE 414 to the similar sized and power output RR designed EJ200 found on the Eurofighter.
@ Branaboy
Sounds like a Gripen G might be a good idea — featuring the engine change that you highlight, and some further changes here and there to remove other US content.
I suspect that there’d be many prospective buyers.
FG: Portugal suggests it may pass on F-35 acquisition, questioning US reliability
“Three Countries Formerly Known as Allies Reconsidering F-35 Purchases”
Portugal, Canada…and now Switzerland, also.
Add Türkiye to the list, which is ordering 40 Typhoons.
There’ll probably be more defectors in the coming weeks, as the penny continues to drop. Prime candidates are NL and IT, which placed top-up orders last fall (relatively inexpensive to cancel).
https://www.emptywheel.net/2025/03/15/three-countries-formerly-known-as-allies-reconsidering-f-35-purchases/
Vietnam regulator proposes approval of Chinese COMAC jets, documents show
“Vietnam’s aviation regulator has proposed to recognize China’s aircraft design certifications as equivalent to U.S. standards, facilitating the entry of jets from Chinese state-owned planemaker COMAC, according to documents seen by Reuters.”
One country at a time
And on that topic:
“Cathay Pacific pushes back B777X timelines, talks to COMAC”
“Meanwhile, McGowan disclosed that a team of senior Cathay Group managers, led by CEO Ronald Lam, visited COMAC in late 2024. “We’re delighted to witness COMAC’s continued success,” said McGowan. “We view the development of a Chinese-made world-class aircraft as an extremely positive thing for the entire industry. I think our particular route structure and market demand require a larger narrowbody aircraft, and we’re interested to see if COMAC’s plans, in due course, will include the introduction of a stretched variant of the C919.””
https://www.ch-aviation.com/news/151516-cathay-pacific-pushes-back-b777x-timelines-talks-to-comac
—
A broader question:
What countries will be willing to (continue to) order BA commercial aircraft now that we’ve seen how US parts can be withheld at a whim…?
Ahhh, so lets unpack that.
Everyone is seeing and planning for the 777X dealys, check.
Hong Kong is owned by China. CP is beholden to China to exist. Check.
Of course they are talking to COMAC. I would not be the least bit surprised they guy some..
But, you could stretch a C919 a mile and not come up with what a 777 can carry.
Logic bust.
Hehe may be there’re more than one thing cooking! Think again.
Delay of 777X? I smell compensations are coming, or else…
Defecting to the A350 would reduce exposure to US whim…
Sparrow in hand vs pigeon on the roof.
undelivered planes carry nothing ..
and even if: the competitiveness of the 777X is questionable.
Numbers where reasonable for the point in time of the initially planned EIS. 5+ years later the competition has moved on
and is delivering a stream of new frames. Customers are happy.
It’s interesting that Cathay only had wide-body aircraft until 2021!
@David:
Vietnam has economic ties to China as well as confrontation in the Western Philippine Sea (South East Asian Sea by some geographers). You should note that Vietnam bought 6 Russian Diesel Electric Subs (small investment with huge impact, over half the Japanese shipping fleet and a significant number of warships)
Call it as a low or no cost sop to China. COMAC C aircraft a huge deal for China and means nothing to Vietnam.
Would Singapore do that? I kind of doubt it. Japan, no. Thailand, Malaya, maybe. Indonesia, yes. Australia and New Zealand, no.
Your route structure would be impinged. Would Vietnam buy a C919?
So yea, dribs and drabbles and fractured, but when its all about PR then it has no cost to China.
The issue starts the day a C919 crashes outside of China where they can’t cover it up like the 737-800 crash in China.
Let’s not forget the recent Jeju 737-800 crash — it will be hard to do a cover-up there.
Really curious as to why a double bird strike caused so much flight control dysfunction.
Duh, simple:
Obviously third world pilot error.
Add in massive deficiencies on the MX side.
add in the imbecility of having an airport in bird flock country.
( or heli lanes intersecting with glide slope to a runway touchdown.)
I don’t think we will ever know on the Muan crash. They clearly will have some idea on the failure of the electrical system(s).
With the recorders not working, exact details of actions by the pilots let alone exactly what they were seeing just are not there.
Starting the APU would seem to be obvious move though its a head scratcher as to engines providing power for 4 minutes of flight but loose electrical on both engines.
There should be radar tracks on course, speed and altitudes.
But you also get into the training aspect. The engine fire on the 737 in Denver, 55 minutes after the problem, rather than return to Colorado Springs, they stay in the air apparently to get to their maint facility.
Stunning to find pilots are trained to think that casually on an engine issue when you only have two and one is limping along.
Juju crash also then reflects on what kind of training they got.
@ Uwe
You were right — the foreign pilot blaming has already started (see comment above this one) 🙈
A handy way to detract attention from the electrical failure on board…which, of course, couldn’t possibly have anything to do with the plane design…right?
How convenient that the FDR and CVR stopped working 2 mins before the crash landing — god only knows what they would otherwise have revealed to embarrass the OEM 🫣
Monday quarterback knows the perfect answer for every aviation incident, NTSB investigators should be ashamed because they can’t have such answers sooooo soon!
BTW AFAIK there’s no evidence that there’s an engine fire while the aircraft was flying.
Readying more misinformation campaigns like the previous one which blamed those “third-world” pilots?
They at least avoided going overboard like the last time:
https://www.reuters.com/article/world/us/ntsb-apologizes-for-gaffe-over-derogatory-asiana-pilot-names-idUSBRE96C023/
Note where they did the testing and its been spring like up here (our version of spring). Maybe look in Candada next time?
https://archive.ph/d4k99
so much for government procurement specs
“The Swiss government enthusiastically ordered a plush $117 million private jet for its officials, only to realize upon delivery that not only is the runway in their capital city too short for the jet to take off, but the aircraft is also so large that it doesn’t fit in any of their hangars”
“The prestigious aircraft, delivered with much fanfare in December 2024, was meant to be a symbol of Swiss efficiency and precision. Instead, it has become an ironic testament to the pitfalls of failing to measure twice before buying once. The jet, it turns out, is simply too large for the facilities at Bern-Belp Airport, where the Swiss government typically houses its official aircraft.”
“Assembly of the A350F has begun”
“The first components for the new Airbus A350F freighter have arrived at the manufacturer’s factory in Hamburg.”
“Initially the freighter was scheduled to enter service in 2026, but this plan was postponed (to Q 2027). Airbus had cited supply chain issues, specifically related to aircraft parts provided by manufacturer Spirit AeroSystems of Wichita, Kansas.”
https://cargoforwarder.eu/2025/03/16/assembly-of-the-a350f-has-begun/
—
In view of recent transatlantic political developments, what’s the betting that AB is looking to remove its dependence on Spirit Kinston for A350 center fuselage panels (and Spirit Wichita, for other parts)?
Replacing that capability is going to be costly and you again have a supply chain issue as it does not happen short of 3 or 4 years.
Flip is if Europe does not tariff US aerospace parts its not an issue for Airbus at least near term.
Long term with an erratic (to say the least for now) trade partner, means you will start to move sources to Europe.
That is the core stupidity of Trump, while I am not happy with the way the US off shored its industry, this is not the way to go about correcting it. It takes both a lot of time, investment and some common sense. None of which Trump has.
Europe is a natural ally. We can disagree on things but at the core, democracy is a valued asset (other than in Trump and the 2025 nuts view).
WWII was fought with allies. Brits being t he biggest, but Poles, Czechs and Free French all made major contribution (the first two in the Battle of Britain supply experienced pilots).
The Pacific saw the Aussies and NZ adding major contributions and holding key ground until the US build up could kick in.
Anyone that thinks China and Russia would not crush the US and Europe are deluding themselves.
“…Replacing that capability is going to be costly…”
Continuing to source major parts from an isolationist, tantrum-prone source will be much costlier if/when continuity of supply is interfered with.
The effort/time involved is irrelevant: decoupling has now become a matter of national security.
Leonardo in Italy is a potential new source…and they’ve already indicated that they’re unhappy with the low 787 line rate.
Fewer people are planning vacations
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GmFOYmxWcAEhhhq?format=jpg&name=medium
Record high share of consumers think business conditions are worsening
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GmKsyyCXYAAZwGK?format=jpg&name=large
Consumer sentiment is already impacting airline revenue forecasts, but when is it going to manifest itself in (mass) order deferrals/cancellations?
Already, a sizeable portion of the 737 MAX backlog is in ASC 606…but methinks that portion is going to be growing.
Rising costs driving Canadian snowbirds to sell Florida condos, spend winters elsewhere
https://cbs12.com/news/local/rising-costs-driving-canadian-snowbirds-to-sell-florida-condos-spend-winters-elsewhere-florida-march-17-2025
Not only are the insurance costs sky high, plus the under-funded condo fees which are now being hit by huge one-time assessments, but Donnie has p!ssed off a bunch of customers, who bring OUTSIDE CAPITAL to the state.
Well done. great bit of business acumen, that…
“Canada’s Carney to Meet With European Allies as Trump Tensions Persist”
https://time.com/7268834/canada-carney-europe-trip-us-ties/
Over here in Europe, we can’t wait to increase our imports from Canada! When will Canadian oil and gas start shipping our way? We love diversified energy supply chains…especially from reliable and respected trading partners. Big contracts with Qatar kick in in 2026, but there’s plenty of room for Canadian product here 👍
I absolutely love the thought of having an EU passport
Well, from a recent poll, it seems that a large portion of Canadians wouldn’t mind joining the EU — which is hugely flattering for Europeans (and a slap in the face for Donnie).
Unfortunately, that would require modification of the 1957 Treaty of Rome, so it won’t happen in a fortnight. But, in the meantime, there’s always potential membership of the EEA (à la Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein)…which would be a natural extension of CETA.
” …spend winters elsewhere ..”
Maybe Cuba?
Or Venezuela?
:-)))
WSJ: Trade War With Europe Puts $9.5 Trillion at Risk, U.S. Firms Say
Reuters: Airbus leads call for Europe to create sovereign infrastructure fund, buy European
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-others-call-sovereign-infrastructure-050828912.html
On-Again, Off-Again U.S. Tariffs Agitate Aerospace Workers
(From AW)
Fifteen aviation industry associations wrote to U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on March 12 seeking a meeting about the state of the industry. The letter asks Trump administration officials to “provide an exemption for aerospace from any tariff consideration to give time to consider all relevant polices to bolster industry competitiveness and ensure there are no unintended consequences.”
A trade war threatens to destabilize an aerospace industry that has become increasingly integrated over decades, Greenberg says. He notes the industry has structured itself within trade relationships that predate the 2020 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement [USMCA], which Trump promoted and signed. The USMCA replaced the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement [NAFTA], which succeeded the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement [CUSFTA] of 1989.
“The supply chains have become so integrated in aerospace that it would be very difficult for the manufacturers to move into a phase of solely U.S.-based suppliers or solely Canadian suppliers,” Greenberg says. “Almost all of the big employers that we deal with have some form of integration.”
Greenberg doubts that Trump’s vision of restructuring or relocating industries to the U.S. will easily work for aerospace.
Trump is a wrecker not a builder. Policy change takes years to work and that assumes the cost is not so immense as to make it non commutative.
Trump is off his rocker and not a clue how the world works, nor cares. Having money means he is immune.
Nice position for a narcissist to spin out all their fantasies. Bad bad bad news for those of us not and that is 90% (depending on how you want to slice the wealth thing)
The Russian Superjet has made its maiden flight with the domestic PD-8 turbofan:
https://www.defensemirror.com/news/39070/Russia___s_Superjet_Powered_by_Domestic_PD_8_Engine_Performs_Maiden_Flight
And making two a year will be achieved in 2035.
Was there not supposed to be a 1500 built Russian LCA by now?
Still waiting for delivery of the 737 MAX 7 🙄
too small! I want the -10.
and my X-Mas present for 2030 should be a 777X.
( back, when I was a young boy I got a Moon landing for my birthday 🙂
Who knows the biggest risk to the US economy is…
> TD COWEN: “2025 looked set to be a blue sky year for the [airlines] sector, but the outlook rapidly clouded over due to US policy-induced uncertainty.”
https://bsky.app/profile/byerussell.com/post/3lknnlxu54k2j
“The first Airbus A321 XLR for @wizzair UK will be G-XLRA, seen here today at Airbus Hamburg with rto-test prior to its first flight, wearing a huge XLR-sticker on fuselage… Wizz Air has ordered 47 XLR and will operate the XLR from London-Gatwick to Jeddah as its first route starting end of March… It’s also the first A321 XLR powered by the @prattandwhitney PW1100G engine which will be delivered to a customer.”
https://x.com/digro65/status/1901627005725987111
Cross-border trips to the U.S. reach COVID lows with nearly 500,000 fewer travellers in February
> “This is like COVID all over again,” he said in an interview with CBC News. “With the rhetoric coming from Trump — people just don’t want to come down here.
“If you’re not buying American liquor in B.C., you’re definitely not coming here to save 20 bucks on gas. There’s just a huge reduction in Canadians — you can see it in the Costco parking lot, at Trader Joe’s. Canadians are voting with their wallets right now. That’s what’s happening,” he said.
Saunders said the 51st state taunts, the tariff threats and the reports of Canadians being detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) are all driving people away.
“We’re only two months into a four-year administration. If they keep this up there will be no Canadians coming down here — there will be a 100 per cent boycott of this country,” he said.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cross-border-trips-decline-235k-february-1.7485695
Not just Canadians:
“Foreign tourism into the U.S. is suddenly reversing and is now expected to drop, due in part to ‘polarizing Trump administration policies and rhetoric’”
“President Donald Trump’s “America first” stance is helping to discourage international travel into the U.S., according to a recent forecast. Research firm Tourism Economics slashed its outlook and now sees a 5.1% decline in visits, flipping from an earlier view for an 8.8% increase. Spending by foreign tourists is expected to tumble 11%, representing a loss of $18 billion this year.
“The outlook for international travel to the U.S. has drastically changed and is now seen declining this year instead of rising.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/foreign-tourism-u-suddenly-reversing-162938981.html
This should not be a suprize to anyone. The bully policies of the current administration’s blind support for Russia, Israel, imperialism, aquisations they spread around are met with surprize and embarasment.
We love our US collaegues, families, friends. But typical US brands are giving in. Now voices in Germany, Portugal and other countries are e.g. questioning F35 purchases. If Trump doesn’t adjust quickly this can become ugly.
Recent US administrations appear sociopathic.
The “taste” changes but depravity does not change.
Canada Reviews F-35 Order As Trump Backlash Grows
(from AW)
New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will consider alternatives to the Lockheed Martin F-35A fighter as a national backlash grows against U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and threats on Canadian sovereignty.
Sweden manufacturer Saab lost a rival bid three years ago to build, maintain and upgrade F-39E Gripen fighters in Canada, but the latest move could reopen the opportunity.
Canada’s approach to fighter deals has been disrupted before by industrial tensions with its southern neighbor. In 2017, Canada canceled a deal to buy 24 Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornets as an interim replacement for the oldest CF-18A/Bs. Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ordered the cancellation after Boeing filed a trade complaint against Bombardier’s C Series airliner program. The U.S. manufacturer lost the case, but not before Bombardier felt compelled to sell the C Series program to Airbus, which rebranded the narrowbody as the A220 family.
Thank you! 👇 Pls watch!
https://x.com/Angeladoneit/status/1902173071131263024
FG fact-checks Boeing CFO’s word salad?
FG: West adds that Boeing purchases “nearly all” its aluminium and steel from US suppliers and that those metals account for only “1-2% of the average cost of an airplane”.
That may be true, but the aluminium supply chain is still heavily dependent on non-US suppliers.
That is because US firms primarily produce aluminium alloys (which are used in aerospace manufacturing) using “pure aluminium” sourced from companies outside the USA, including to a large degree those in Canada, says Kevin Michaels, managing director of consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory.
Sheila Kahyaoglu with financial firm Jefferies estimates that the aluminium and steel tariffs mean Boeing needs to charge 15% more for a 737 and 5% more for a 787 to maintain the same profit margins, according to a 12 March research report.