Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Little known, most unknown in Air India 171 crash June 13, 2025
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Little known, most unknown in Air India 171 crash
By Scott Hamilton
June 13, 2025, © Leeham News: One day after the crash of Air India flight 171, very little is known about what happened. Almost everything remains unknown.
What we know
- This is the first fatal crash of a Boeing 787. The accident airplane was delivered in 2014 and is a 787-8,
A screen show of a video of Air India flight 171. The camera is from a distance and the quality is grainy, but to many this seems to show that that flaps were not extended for take off. However, some flaps positions are set at 5 degrees, and may not be readily visible in this shot.
the first sub-type of the family of airplanes.
- There were 242 passengers and crew on board. One passenger survived; there were fatalities on the ground, but the number is fluid. One news report cited a total of 290 killed in the plane and the ground.
- Two videos of the accident surfaced yesterday. One shows the plane’s final seconds as the flight appeared in a relatively flat-attitude climb followed by a slow descent into the ground and explosion of fuel. The other showed the 787 on its take off roll, ascent, descent and crash. Both show that landing gear remained down throughout the short flight. The grainy videos appear to show the flaps were not extended for take off. The second video shows what appears to be a lot of dust thrown up as the plane lifted off the runway. Some speculate that was from the runway overrun area, but the angle and distance from the CCTV doesn’t include this detail.
- A Mayday call was sent from the flight. Most reports end with this one word. A few said the words “no power” were included in the Mayday.
- The weather was clear, but it was humid and more than 100 degrees in temperature. These hot conditions extend take off rolls.
- The plane was headed to London, some 10 hours away. A heavy fuel load would be on the plane.
The speculation
- The videos appearing to show the flaps were up led to the possibility that for some reason the plane was not properly configured for take-off. A flapless take off often leads to crashes, and the presence of a cloud of dust as the airplane lifted off could lend credence to a flapless roll. Flaps up after lift off could lead to a stall.
- However, past accidents with misconfigured flaps and slats included a wobbly take off and immediate crash within the airport perimeter. The video shows a smooth climb, such as it was, and smooth descent, suggesting the pilots retained some control over the airplane.
- “No power” in theory points to a problem on the take off roll, as well as a climb out. “No power” can mean any number of things: complete failure after lift-off, or reduced power at a critical point of the take-off and short flight.
- Fuel contamination could be a factor, but investigation will look into this possibility.
- The landing gear remains down throughout the flight. Normally, the gear would be raised right away. This leads to speculation of a hydraulic issue or perhaps the pilots mistakenly raised the flaps instead of the gear.
What we don’t know
- What we don’t know is why whatever happened, happened.
The investigation
- Recovery of the flight data (FDR) and cockpit voice (CVR) recorders, plus the control tower recording, should be very revealing and provide answers to the questions and theories above and more—provided data can be recovered from the FDR and CVR. The airplane’s tail, where the FDR and CVR are stored, appeared basically intact. But until these recorders are recovered, their conditions are unknown.
- The FDR will tell everything the plane was doing: whether the flaps and slats were configured properly, aircraft performance on the runway and lift-off, the power of the engines and more. The CVR will tell investigators what the pilots said throughout the operation of the flight (from gate pushback to crash) and what, exactly, the Mayday call was about, and if the pilots executed the pre-flight checklist completely—including setting the flaps and slats. The CVR will also reveal any cockpit warnings that may have gone off.
- As a matter of routine, investigators will examine pilot history, aircraft and engine maintenance history, weather conditions, whether the pilots had the presence of alcohol or drugs (prescription or otherwise) in their system, the passenger manifest to determine if any of them had nefarious backgrounds that might be a factor, the baggage manifest in case there was anything suspicious or hazardous that might be a contributing factor, etc. Although the videos didn’t show a pre-crash explosion or fire, it is routine (at least in the US) for law enforcement to participate in probes to rule in or out criminal activities.
- The videos didn’t appear to show any bird strikes, but the angles and quality are a factor. Investigators will determine if bird strikes were a factor.
What’s next
- Recovery of the FDR and CVR is an investigative priority, followed by analysis of data of these and of the control tower recording. It’s possible if all goes well to have the initial analysis and disclosure within days. Otherwise, an extended analysis period could be in store.
- The next few days could provide answers to key questions. Until then, it’s all speculation.
I also read from various serious newspaper sources (Guardian, LeMonde…) that the surviving guy mentioned 1) hearing a big sound few dozen seconds after take-off, 2) flickering lights just before the crash
I also heard (but seems more difficult to get serious source confirmation) that the flight radar ADS-B data seems to mention the take-off happened early (A/C not using whole available runway length for take-off roll) which looks strange considering the weather conditions
1. I would not pay too much attention to eye witness reports. They can often be miss-leading and possibly be mixed up in the confusion and especially shock after such an accident
2. Apparently the ADS-B coverage at that airport is not very reliable and there are very few data points with long intervals in between. So it could be not the whole track is shown. One comment I read is that previous take-offs looked very similar on ADS-B records.
Agreed. When I was getting my pilots license, our instructor who was a very experienced pilot had a reference to a small plane crash. 5 experienced aviator reported 5 different ways of how it acted.
Eventually they found someone who had been filming something else but caught the airplane in the background. Before the Video era, they had not a clue how important what they had was.
Some weeks later when they saw the continued reports of we can’t figure it out, they came forward with the film.
It was nothing like what had been reported.
Its not that witnesses are bad people or making things up, its just an area people generally are not good at recording things mentally.
That Boeing 787 Dreamliner Air India plane had a previous history of electrical and mechanical malfunctions especially with the flaps functions and other unknown electrical problems the pilots had experienced on many previous flights. The malfunctions of the aeroplane on previous flights would have been recorded and brought to the attention of the Air line company. The previous passengers who flew on that aeroplane were very lucky because the pilots ignored all of the dangers associated with electrical and mechanical malfunctions and continued to fly the plane regardless of the dangers. It was criminal negligence of the pilots and of the Air India airline company because they should have grounded the aircraft for a serious comprehensive maintenance and repairs to the aircraft. Criminal negligence of the Air line company because the planes should not be used if they have electrical and mechanical malfunctions that will obviously endanger the passengers and aircraft! The plane should be 100% perfect condition at all times before any flights! It was very serious criminal negligence! Very bad maintenance and servicing of their air craft! All Planes must have regular legal maintenance schedules!
Can you point to some evidence that supports your claims?
Thanks.
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The plane had a history of electrical and mechanical problems on many previous flights. but the pilots ignored the dangers it was criminal negligence of the pilots and of the Air India airline company because they should have grounded the plane for a comprehensive maintenance! The pilots flew the plane with many malfunctions including problems with the flaps functions it was criminal negligence because of very bad maintenance on the plane! Criminal negligence! the plane should not be used when it has mechanical and electrical problems ! The Air line would have been notified of the previous problems with the plane and should have grounded the plane for service and maintenance! Criminal negligence!
I know it is important to wait for the preliminary findings from the FDR/CVR. Besides the flaps that don’t appear to be lowered, could it be that the aircraft was somehow setup with wrong weight settings and the auto pilot then reduced the thrust too much so it could not continue to climb?
If the RAT was deployed ( vague photos available ) just reduced thrust can’t be valid.
IMU:
Automatic RAT deployment happens on AC System cut out.
Small correction:
“The plane was headed to London, some five hours away.”
The flying time from Ahmedabad to London is ten hours…not five.
So, the plane would have had a full load of fuel.
The plane is reported to have backtracked to the very start of the runway before commencing takeoff, so the flight crew evidently expected a very long ground roll.
Forgot to take into account the time zone change. Thanks. Fixed.
That Boeing 787 Dreamliner Air India plane had a previous history of electrical and mechanical malfunctions especially with the flaps functions and other unknown electrical problems the pilots had experienced on many previous flights. The malfunctions of the aeroplane on previous flights would have been recorded and brought to the attention of the Air line company. The previous passengers who flew on that aeroplane were very lucky because the pilots ignored all of the dangers associated with electrical and mechanical malfunctions and continued to fly the plane regardless of the dangers. It was criminal negligence of the pilots and of the Air India airline company because they should have grounded the aircraft for a serious comprehensive maintenance and repairs to the aircraft. Criminal negligence of the Air line company because the planes should not be used if they have electrical and mechanical malfunctions that will obviously endanger the passengers and aircraft! The plane should be 100% perfect condition at all times before any flights! It was very serious criminal negligence! Very bad maintenance and servicing of their air craft! All Planes must have regular legal maintenance schedules!
Has there ever been an event where 2 engines have simultaneously just turned themselves off with no spluttering and signs of obvious distress?
I think accident investigators will already have a fairly good idea what happened and we will quickly know what basically happened so there is little point in speculating and making oneself look a fool.But here I go,pilot/flight control interface problems have been known to take a decade or longer to emerge
FYI a 5 hr flight suggests a very light fuel load as the 787 can fly 15-17 hrs on a full fuel load.
10 hours, not five. See other comments.
The crash in India reminds me of this very close call with an Emirates 777 in Dubai in 2021.
Although the Emirates aircraft didn’t have an engine problem, it did have an incorrectly configured FMC…resulting in a horrendously long ground roll and alarmingly shallow climbout.
It could easily have resulted in a crash.
https://onemileatatime.com/news/emirates-terrifying-boeing-777-flight-washington/
***
Not suggesting that this is the cause of the Indian crash — just pointing out the similarities in takeoff behavior.
I am aware of this happening a few times, why wouldn’t the pilot just floor the throttle?
Perhaps a pilot can answer?
Lift isn’t just determined by speed — air density and wing geometry* also play a role.
If the FMC configures the wings for an incorrect set of takeoff parameters (weight, runway length, airport altitude) then the situation becomes precarious.
* Wing geometry: more specifically the value of a line integral taken along the perimeter of the wing cross-section, per point along the wing axis.
The value of this integral is adjusted using flaps, slats, ailerons, etc.
Apply whip to a dead horse? Think again!
( assumed the RAT was really automatic deployed triggered by loss of AC power.)
Other potential issue based on hot, humid and history: arcing in the distribution. ( does that potentially deenergize the engine FADEC units? )
Total power loss would kick in the RAT.
The 787 has two power centers, one fore and one aft.
Its designed to isolate faults in either one or separate the two if one has a major fault.
In testing they had a massive fault in the rear panel and the system failed to isolate. It was corrected.
In that case they think a wrench was left in the panel and vibrated to across two of the power busses.
Anything is possible.
@Grubbie:
It takes time to build airspeed even with throttles(s) full open.
If you are wallowing you have even more drag than normal as well as the gear still being down. Gear does not have to be up but it is a drag and if you are in a high drag situation, that can push you over that stall edge.
The engines have to spool up, modern edges are far better but not instant like a car. At least at the point of wallowing, flaps look to be up (you could still have flap 1 selected which deploys the slats on the front of the wing partially)
Big question is why they did not have flying speed.
Giant fuel cutoff toggle switches just below the throttle look interesting
Cross my mind, too… Fuel problem.
Certainly possible but it would have to manifested itself once in the air not on the 11,000 feet of runway.
They have the FDR by now so results should be available soon. Looks like fuel starvation or wrong T-O settings of flaps/thrust, but we will know any time.
Depends on condition and how fast they can get it translated from computerese to data and the timelines correct.
I wonder how bad (toxic) the fire was from the composite construction.
That’s a very good question…🤔
Did you have the same concerns with the A350 hull loss in Japan?
I think it’s best that we do not interact.
Regards.
Agreed.
The question still stands.
From the BBC:
“Boeing 787-8/9 flight control inspection introduced until further notice”
“…The regulator says from 15 June, there will be a one-off check before flights leave India for the Boeing 787-8 and 787-9 fleet.
“This will cover various systems, including the electronic engine control system and the cabin air compressor.
“Flight control inspection” will be introduced in transit until further notice.
“Power assurance checks will also take place within two weeks.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c8d1r3m8z92t
Oh-oh:
“Did wing flaps cause Air India crash? Aviation experts zero in on ‘mechanical failure’ as it emerges identical 787 jet made FOUR emergency landings in last month”
“Experts viewing footage of the Air India Boeing 787-8 ahead of the crash have said its configuration on taking off from Ahmedabad airport in India ‘doesn’t look right’.”
“It has also been reported that an identical Boeing 787 made four emergency landings last month – an American Airlines plane with issues linked to its wing flaps not being properly deployed.
“The aircraft is to have returned to Amsterdam not long after take-off towards Philadelphia, before later aborted flights to Philadelphia from Dublin, Barcelona and Zurich, the Telegraph reported. ”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14808925/What-caused-Air-India-crash-wing-flaps-Boeing.html
***
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/12/whistleblower-raised-safety-fears-boeing-dreamliner-factory/
“The American Airlines plane was initially forced to return to Amsterdam after a problem with its flaps was detected shortly after take-off for Philadelphia on Jan 7.
“The aircraft dumped fuel over the North Sea before landing at Schiphol airport at a higher than normal speed, attributed to the flaps problem.
“The flight was rescheduled, only to be cancelled after its crew discovered a hydraulics issue.
“In the following weeks, the plane – which was eight years old and had completed more than 4,000 flights – was forced to abort flights to Philadelphia from Dublin, Barcelona and Zurich.”
Clearly they would not have even been able to get the throttles to advance if the flaps were not set to A position. Right or wrong. The computers read the setup and will not allow throttle advance.
It may well be it was Flaps 1, if hydraulics were not working then no takeoff on that alone let alone flaps.
Issues on takeoff are different, worst case the flaps don’t come up. Low speed its needed unless its flaps 15+
Hydraulic issues once aloft are a totally different thing.
No two aircraft are identical. Its either the same aircraft as crashed or its not.
They will have some very immediate info from the wreckage and what position the flaps are in.
An yes, engineers can tell torn damage on metal that occurs and impact and may look like flaps were down.
The flap tracks would also be part of that spec for yea or nay.
Bad data input would explain a lot. Pilots not catching out of normal settings but it has happened.
That affects thrust and flaps settings.
A lot of alarms would go off otherwise.
The 787 was down at the far end of the runway when it rotated. It should have been rotating when it came into view from that electronics bldg in the one video or very shortly after.
Not mentioned is Ground Affect. Wing builds up a slightly compressed air cushion under the wing.
It can be enough to lift off and get some climb, even if you do not have true flying speed.
But as soon as you are 30-50 feet off the runway, it disappears.
It may be a factor in getting the lift off at all.
Far more to it but it sure looks like they took the full runway and were not at flying speed when they rotated.
This shows the -8 flap settings and what they look like on side profile.
Flaps 5 would be hard to see per Scott. Two 787 Pilot sources I know (one personally) say Flaps 15 would be normal, others talk about Flaps 5 as normal.
https://fi.pinterest.com/pin/aviation–765893480369029912/
I will mention the video ‘What really happened to AI171’ as
being thoughtful, circumspect and not jumping to conclusions. The guy is a 777 Captain w/ a lot of experience (Captain Steeeve, his spelling) on YT.
YMMV, of course. Also looking forward to what Juan Browne
at Blancolirio (777 FO) thinks, once the dust settles.
Juan is unusually reticent about this one
Massive demand for seat 11a from now onwards
+1
@Grubbie:
Juan is a full time pilot as well.
Best info would come from 787 pilots as its a unique aircraft in the Boeing lineup.
I have two 787 confirmations that flaps 15 would be normal. The one person I know. He was an electronics guy who moved over to delivery. Extremely sharp person. He worked on the 747 AF1 that is the current flying AF1.
Captain Steve is interesting but I don’t think his analysis holds up. Granted its an opinion. He says the 777 and 787 are virtually identical air-frames and that is totally not right. 777 is also not mostly electric.
This guy does an outstanding job laying out the various possibles and why they should not occur.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC5YpPXrzR8
I have seen a picture of (left?) wing, if flaps were extended no more that 5 deg.
Authorities will have a good idea on flaps by now.
The only hole in the Swiss cheese seems to be wrong data input and then not caught for not normal for that temp.
Speed is listed at 174 knots now. That is flyable with Flaps 15 but not 1 or 5 from what I can garner.
At what point in the video did Captain Steeeve say the 777 and 787 are “virtually identical”?
I sure didn’t hear that..
He has interviewed and posted his take. One I saw was yesterday.
I don’t say he is wrong, just how he presents and obviously there was an issue or issues that got that aircraft where it was.
This one has the view of the wing. That is one of if not the key right now. Even if the NFO pulled up the flaps after takeoff, that is a key but the length of take off is a factor. This one repeats the mid runway takeoff but others have posted clearly it used the full length of the runway.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFIdi7E2rjc
This is the one I saw. The Quote is, its a very similar airframe. So I did misquote but its an odd way to put it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7EZkungFEE
One 787 pilot and a person I know who worked the 787 said flaps 15 not 5.
It could have Flaps 1 or even 5.
I think you could see Flaps 15.
The Gear lever is in a completely different location than the flap lever.
Anything is possible but even flaps up and not gear, they were way too long on takeoff.
I believe I have located the Small Bldg (shack in some description) that is seen in the one video where the takeoff is shown.
https://www.google.com/maps/@23.0803912,72.6405961,185m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDYxMS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D
Its almost exactly 1/3 of the way down the runway from the end they took off from.
Juan Browne has a new vid up re the 787 crash, focusing for the moment on the Ram Air Turbine and related stuff.
Sorry I can’t get a link to post.
Here it is. Its extremly distinctive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPk31EhtakE
Top aspect is the horrendous loss of live.
But this is now an aircraft issue. I won’t speculate really bad for Boeing if true. The only failure of that type was virtually total going into San Antonio on a test flgiht.
Batteries should also be involved. Hydraulic only or alternator and hydraulic?
Thanks for providing the link.
You are welcome.
This link may be helpful. Its 777 but I think there is a lot of similarities. I like the visuals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3o0g5b_kIk
I don’t of course know if the 787 drops the RAT alternator (they call it a generator but that is wrong, Alternators are A/C and what your cars and most power plants have)
Caveat on the 787 is its more electrical and its got two battery systems, one aft and on up front. Probably linked to the respective power panels.
“The next few days could provide answers to key questions. Until then, it’s all speculation.”
So true, on Anet, there are over 26 pages of posts of “speculation”. On YouTube, every pilot, real and imagined has their speculation up and ready for hits.
It is times like these I think of the loved ones and friends at the arriving airport, or in this case, who were probably at home and saw SKY NEWS flash Breaking News. Heart wrenching.
Very well put.
It is and then some. Each loss of life is a ripple, it affects far more than the person who has died. Family, friends, community.
If the audio is accurate and no reason to think not, implications are beyond awful.
I was on the end of one of those losses, some of those impact are still with us 60 years latter.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/rescuers-search-missing-people-aircraft-parts-after-air-india-crash-kills-over-2025-06-13/
“The aviation ministry said that investigators and rescue workers had recovered the digital flight data recorder – one of the two black boxes on the plane – from the rooftop of the building on which the jet crashed.
There was no information on the cockpit voice recorder, the other black box, which is also crucial to the crash probe.”
Reports are both were recovered.
FDR is the most important one but with possible total electrical failure, we could have another Jeju type crash though they should have data for most of the runway and initial takeoff. .
Authorities should get Video into the cockpit as well. Actions are what counts not bad voice recordings.