Leeham News and Analysis
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Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same
By Scott Hamilton
June 14, 2025, © Leeham News: Embraer’s 20-year market forecast for airliners with 150 seats or less shows a decline in anticipated turboprops and a jet outlook (100-150 jets) about the same as last year’s study.
The study was released days before the Paris Air Show, which begins Monday.
Credit: Embraer.
Embraer now sees a demand for 1,780 turboprops and 8,720 jets. Embraer and ATR, now the only new producer of turboprops outside China and Russia, previously forecast a demand for around 2,100 turboprops. A few years ago, Embraer appeared on a path to develop a new turboprop. It shelved the program, stating there wasn’t a new engine available.
Embraer’s current airliner family consists of the 76-seat E-175 E1, the 100-seat E-190-E2 and the 144-seat E-195-E2. Officials publicly acknowledged that Embraer is studying whether to enter the mainline jet segment of 180- to 230 seats.
Small jets still relevant
“Small narrowbody jets, defined as 100 to 150-seat aircraft, are essential in building airline network connectivity in today’s volatile, competitive, and polarized world,” Embraer states in its study.
“A mixed fleet of large and small narrowbodies allows airlines to access every market size, offering the right capacity for every route, and providing the opportunity to add frequencies without introducing excess capacity.
“The small narrowbody segment has become increasingly relevant over the last years. It has proven to be an effective tool for navigating a dynamic environment that seeks growth in secondary markets and flexibility to adjust capacity quickly to changes in demand,” Embraer writes.
Emerging markets, especially in Southeast Asia, helps demand, the company states. Fluid evolution of other markets means airlines should have multiple fleet types of efficient aircraft to efficiently serve these diverse sectors.
Market sizes
Embraer breaks out China for the first time in its forecast. China will lead in annual growth for Revenue Passenger Kilometers and North America (Canada, the USA and Mexico) will lead in jet aircraft deliveries.
“The overall forecast for the number of new sub-150-seat aircraft remains almost unchanged from Embraer’s previous estimate,” Embraer states.
The annual RPK regional growth rate forecast is:
- 7% China
- 7% Latin America
- 4% Africa
- 4% Middle East
- 1% Asia Pacific
- 1% Europe & CIS
- 4% North America
Embraer believes the RPK share by the end of 2044 will be 39% in the Asia-Pacific region.
That’d be cool if Embraer developed a bigger plane!
Embraer must be deciding where to allocate its limited resources: a next-gen Turboprop or into the heart of the NB market. This report provides them with cover to keep the next-gen TP on hold and redirect resources to a larger NB.
The ATR will continue its dominant position in the market.
Agreed. The TP orders are so martinal there is only room for one player to make money.
China and India may try to hone in but then as my folks found out when they opened a businesses, too many and everyone lost money. The established business could afford to loose longer.
In this case if China decides to get into the arena, they will persist and ATR would fold their tent. Deep pockets or more resources count (and determination to use them).
Embraer needs a partner or several and I don’t know who that would be.
China is committed to the 919. BBD get back into it?
A next-generation TP like the Maeve M80 will combine the market of the low-end of RJ with TP, diverge from the rest of the RJ market.
Embraer has been getting very chummy with India lately — which is a huge aviation market.
India is capable of making military aircraft, but would probably love to start its own commercial aircraft manufacture. Embraer could help with that — the OEM is already talking about increasing output by 75%, and potentially opening a FAL in India. This in return for an order of at least 200 aircraft from India.
It’s entirely feasible to envisage a scenario whereby Embraer launches a full-size narrowbody with Indian cooperation and co-funding. That would be a win-win for both countries.
We discussed Embraer going for a bigger aircraft already more than 15 years. And they stretched the E195 when launching the E195E2. Naming it the same E195, to not wake up Airbus and Boeing I guess.
https://07185918574543712684.googlegroups.com/attach/35d4515a510e6/Embraer%20E200-E2%20Boeing%20737-7%20Southwest%20Keesje.jpg?part=0.1&view=1&vt=ANaJVrEaQ5DYo2iDoy6osmA9TmA4NRjLat8GT7Bif7Nl6zz1bSYhMV47_2J6udCFjqdOwxXnTMKKZ4ecONFXZvvnGrviQ1_KfFw6H_0RvN5cCda2JDglgYs
In my opinion creating a credible ~149 seat E2 version (with 30-31 inch pitch, reasonable galley and toilet space) would be a good idea, to really match the A220-300 and be a 737-700/A319 replacement.
It seems 4 seatrows/16 seats / 2.8 meter stretch, 2 plugs would be required.