Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
There's more to real news than a news release.
Open Forum, Week of March 9
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This morning’s LNA article on supply chain issues astutely refers to rare earth shortages as a headache going forward…and it’s a headache that is likely going to be made much worse by the political fallout from the US/Israeli war on Iran.
From Reuters:
“Rare earth shortages, particularly of yttrium and scandium, are intensifying for U.S. aerospace and semiconductor sectors as of early 2026 due to Chinese export controls. While not a physical shortage, the concentration of supply in China and restrictions have caused prices to surge up to 69 times higher, causing production pauses and rationing.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/rare-earth-shortages-worsen-us-aerospace-chips-despite-trade-truce-sources-say-2026-02-26/
From The Guardian:
“China maintains a near-monopoly on the global rare earth elements (REE) supply chain, controlling ~70% of mining, ~90% of processing, and over 90% of magnet manufacturing as of late 2025. This dominance allows Beijing to exert geopolitical pressure through export restrictions, creating significant vulnerabilities for Western defense and green technology sectors.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jun/07/china-has-a-stranglehold-on-the-worlds-rare-earths-supply-chain-can-australia-break-it
On the slow US catch-up:
“Building a complete, independent, and sustainable rare earth supply chain in the United States will likely take a decade or more, with many experts suggesting it could span 15 to 20 years or even “decades” due to significant infrastructure, environmental, and technical hurdles. While the US has ramped up mining (primarily at Mountain Pass, California), it lacks the downstream capacity to refine and process these materials into magnets, a sector currently dominated by China”
https://econofact.org/can-the-u-s-reduce-its-reliance-on-imported-rare-earth-elements#:~:text=Since%20the%20U.S.%20has%20almost,favor%20of%20U.S.%2Dbased%20production.
China has a massive Achilles heel in oil from the ME and particularly from Iran.
The delivery systems from Russia are too small to make that up.
Equally the offshore trade is huge, magnitude can shift to where the now shifted markets see no one is buying.
Being a mechanic (I still work on my own vehicles, snow blower, cycle ) I keep an eye on tools. I am seeing tools made in Vietnam of all places now. Thailand and Indonesia have popped up.
No one is going to be immune from a world wide recession.
Not true: 👇
> Russia supplies significantly more oil to China than Iran does.
The US knew this for at least a decade. The congress had hearings, and the administration passed acts. Results? Little to show for.
Rare earths aren’t rare!
######
BTW apparently some here are still stuck at last century’s petrostate thinking, time to wake up! This century is the century of electrostates! Old thinking would guarantee one becoming a dinosaur faster than you think.
Enjoy paying $4 for gas (petrol).
######
More are talking about this is the Suez Crisis of 2026: “The emperor has no cloths!”, says a kid.
“… some wars accelerate the very decline they are meant to stave off…”
“.. political fallout from the US/Israeli war on Iran.”
but it will reduce pressure on Boeing making the 777X available to customers for use.
Just like the GFC and reduced air traffic alleviated the urgency of 787 being delivered to customers.
Indeed.
If there is a spate of deferrals/cancellations coming from Gulf Carriers (and others) — inter alia due to revenue erosion from ongoing airspace closures and record-high fuel pricing — then there won’t be as much fallout if/when BA announces further (inevitable) delays to 777X cert…
2030?
“2030?” that would be 17 years from launch of the 777x (for upgrade) in 2013
In comparison…C929 (for new aircraft…first time using composites at large scale) launched in 2017 plus 17 years…that’s 2034 With first assemblies in 2028…that could work Especially with import substitution program delays for production equipment/tooling, composite material and CJ2000 engine development
Or shift to freighters or……………………..
Gulf carriers now would probably like to push their orders into the future.
Boeing would like to have some leeway in further pushing out 777X certification in the same direction.
win-win.
Pity the 26 to 30 777-9s sitting on the ramp. Another year (or more) of waiting?
@Uwe:
We have a saying that there is a Law of Unintended Consequences.
In regards to aircraft, the current disaster of course has been on my mind. The problem is you can’t even do a possibles chart. The forks become insane the 2nd level.
Chess has fixed moves and it takes massive computing power to sort out good moves from bad. The forks are temendous and you can’t write a simple rule like, loosing a pieces is bad. Sacrafice a piece can be good. I won a local chess trouman by doing that (the best chess players had other activites they wre comited to and one had broken his leg!). Throw out a Rook in what looked like an over looked capture, goes for it and two moves later check mate.
Initially the ME 3 are going to be hit hugely and others will pick up traffic (most of it is pass through). So others benefit at least in the short term.
How long that lasts of if it lasts is open to all the possible outcomes of what is happening not just in the regions but the spread to other areas.
Lufthansa is high in the Que for the -9, but if there is no traffic they won’t want it.
That could ripple into the single aisles easily.
Tend to think deliveries for both AB and Boeing will hold up pretty much no matter what happens with oil prices or if a global economic slowdown materializes. I base this on the fact that the fuel efficiency of the new planes are worth their purchase price. Maxes replacing NGs, A321neos replacing A320ceos; 777X replacing 773s. Etc.,… This has been the pattern for a couple decades now.
Airlines with severely-eroded revenue have fewer (or no) options to pay for new aircraft…
You assume that impact will just hit the gulf carriers.
I’d deem that underestimating the fall out from the US / ISR attack ( unprovoked, during negotiations showing progress.
Amusing : news here brought this in two consecutive sentences: major progress in negotiations, Iran stepping down. Massive attack on Iran. Any kind of conversation on anything with the US is from here on worthless. )
Fall Out from this will be comparable or worse than the GFC.
Traffic distribution over carriers will not just do a reroute.
I expect a massive contraction.
With AI help even the dumbest can ruin the world with ease.
But AI apparently does not help with projecting consequences.
This is probably due to : what you don’t ask is what AI can’t produce an answer to, independent of being capable or just hallucinating.
( the evolution of AI models shows a massive increase in AI hallucinations : i.e. not just trash in, trash out but even if you provide “your thought to be true” facts trash may come out in 1/3rd of answers. )
In Europe not many are impressed by US diplomatic finesse to get results. US often transitions to Tomahawks and GBU’s once negotiations gets to complicated with historical issues in the way often starting before US was founded. Not that the British-French did a good and careful job dividing up the Middle East after the Ottoman empire imploded causing many of the issues the people in this region suffers from where each each ethic group lacks their own territory (Kurds, Syrians, Assyrians, Druse, Alawite, Persians, Sunni, Shia, Jews, Palestinians, Bedouins, Christians, …) with their own airlines. They actually lived together under Ottoman rule without much ethnic conflict between them.
Show me any US diplomatic effort that was not based on screwing the other side.
“Fair” is a concept not available in the US philosophic domain.
“moral standards” is a tool like anything else.
@Uwe, the Marshall plan worked pretty well. Before that president Woodrow Wilson kind of misled the Germans to believe that WWI should just stop and each country pay for itself with no territory losses. Germany thought it was a good solution and was surprised when France and England did not agree and made Germany pay dearly setting the stage for WWII. Had President Wilson been more careful the WW I peace settlement could have been more logical and WW II been avoided with its massive losses.
Wilson never said there would be no territory losses for Germany. His catch phrase was Peace without Victory
He was a great promoter of Polish independence such as in his “”14 Points””
The return of Alsace-Lorraine from Germany to France.
The restoration of Belgium as an independent nation.
The creation of an independent Poland with secure access to the sea.
The readjustment of Italian borders according to “recognisable lines of nationality”
There was always going to be reparations , exactly like was imposed by Germany on Soviet Russia at Brest Litovsk treaty in 1917. Also France had to pay reparations in 1870 war. So no illusions there
The allies didnt get repaid for the cost of waging war , just the cost of civilian infrastructure destroyed in the main western battlefields of France and Belgium and commercial ships sunk by U boats.
Germany was untouched by war damage as the war hardly encroached on its territory. Why should France and belgium pay for the massive damage done by the unprovoked german invasion
Weimar Germanys inflation was deliberate, initially, as the costs of waging the war werent done by tax increases but domestic loans, thus the outstanding loans repayments were devalued by inflation during 1920s but it got out hand.
Paying the western allies in gold marks was within its domestic capacity especially as Treaty reduced the size (88% less) and cost of military compared to pre war.
Germany was not mislead. Surprising that 1920/30s german revisionism still has has its followers as its not based on actual facts
I wonder whether the ME3 has war risk insurance on their fleets? Seems like a few drones outtake out plenty of planes on the ground in Dubai.
No insurer covers war risk — by definition, it falls under force majeure.
“Asia Outbids Other Regions for Fuel Cargoes as War Chokes Supply”
“Tankers carrying jet fuel and diesel have sharply diverted toward Asia and away from their initial destinations in the west as the world’s most important oil-consuming region is grappling with a supply crunch amid halted traffic at the Strait of Hormuz.
“At least five vessels with diesel and jet fuel cargoes originating from the Gulf and India have made a U-turn near Africa’s southeast coasts and are now signaling their destinations are in Asia, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed on Monday.
“In recent days, disrupted crude flows from the Middle East to Asia due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Asian refining margins to the multi-year highs.
“Asian refiners, particularly state-held majors heavily dependent on Middle East oil supply, are considering slashing crude run rates by up to 30% amid the war in Iran that is holding up millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude stuck near the Strait of Hormuz.”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Asia-Outbids-Other-Regions-for-Fuel-Cargoes-as-War-Chokes-Supply.html
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China has 1.2 billion barrels of oil in reserve, so it’s much more comfortable than many other Asian countries.
Also, China now gets a majority of its energy from renewable sources, meaning that only 6.6% of its energy needs pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
It’s already sourcing extra oil from Russia to help negate shortfall; in fact, Russia is now shipping western Urals crude to China in ULCC tankers.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/china-oil-shock-iran-war-hormuz-energy-transition.html
Nearly 40 million barrels of oil on tankers station near China, up by more than 17% from the week before the conflict erupted, according to Kpler.
The worst East Asian economy hit by the new oil crisis is, check note, Singapore. Others include South Korea and Taiwan, of which their NG and oil relies 100% on imports. Just watch the reactions in the stock markets.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HC-Y3oLXYAADB69?format=jpg&name=medium
Those who said otherwise didn’t do their homework.
“”energy”” , especially fuel for power stations isnt the issue. but renewable is only around 25% of yearly demand for electricity
China needs 16 mill barrels of oil per day- worlds largest crude oil importer . thats of course used for liquid fuels and petrochemical feedstocks
Russia 20%, Saudi Arabia 15%, Iraq 12% , Iran 10%. plus UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Angola, Brazil
To say there are 1.2 bill barrels of oil held in storage, sounds a lot, but is only 75 days which is less than the “”standard”” which is 90 days
For power generation coal is still 52% of the fuel supply and as for LNG China is the worlds biggest importer – Australia, Qatar, Russia etc. They are also large importers of piped gas from Russia and Turkmenistan
Yes, an opportunity for BRICS to flex it’s muscles.
Yea I keep hearing that and not seeing it
> Oil markets just got a wake-up call.
The US-Israel strike on Iran sent prices surging and the Strait of Hormuz is now a live risk.
> China has spent 20 years building for exactly this moment:
🚗 50%+ of cars sold are EVs
⚡ 30%+ of final energy from electricity
🛢️ 1.4B barrels in storage—120 days of import coverage
While the US SPR sits 40% below decade-ago levels, Beijing has been quietly stacking.
> Meanwhile this crisis reshuffles everyone else’s calculus. Europe lost faith in Russian gas. US LNG reliability is being quietly questioned. Qatar just suspended exports for the first time ever.
Persian Gulf “stability” suddenly looks a lot less certain.
> China arrives at the bargaining table with real structural advantages—stockpiles, electrification, and clean-tech dominance over 80% of global solar and battery manufacturing.
FP: How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance
https://t.co/A9USh7dfUf
Sadly no results. Oddly I believe you could map all the oceans in under a couple years. Not sure if you could get a plan wreck detail fine enough.
https://www.airdatanews.com/mh370-search-yields-no-new-clues-twelve-years-after-boeing-777-disappearance/
While the families would benefit, we know how it all played out ion general. Missing is the details. The question of the rough data was resolved when wreakage showed up on the East Africa shoreline roughly in the time line and areas that they were calculated to for a crash in the general search area.
But it would be nice to get the voice and flight recorders, to see if there is anything that would help us to reduce the chances of a future similar disaster.
For instance, were the pilots in agreement or did one lock out the other(s)
I am going to disagree. We have more than ample known incidents where pilots were in the cockpit, locked out.
Unless and until we can come up with a quick mental screening that shows the state of someones mind, its a waste.
Maybe you could build programs that if an aircraft was set to go places it should not, it would just auto land.
It does not matter which pilot did it (other than clues to the state of someone and if there is a pattern you can use).
China is tighter as any country on spying on its people, let alone pilots and they did not catch the -800 pilot plans or mental state.
Finding MH370 just crosses I and dots T for the facts of granular detail as to what happened and when.
I fully admit its an emotional aspect that I want to see it solved for. Technically and Logically it makes zero difference.
TRANS.
If you look reeeeeeel hard, you will see MH370 parked on the ramp right next to Amelia………
Yea that has crossed my mind. I would call those the two big unsolved as to where (not mysteries).
Noonan got lost. Where around Howland they were lost is the unknown.
Not sure which search area is bigger.
Jan-Feb AB deliveries stand at an impressive 54 aircraft…
Are they going to average 82 a month for the remainder of the year!!
Let’s not kid ourselves.
Look for a revised delivery target upcoming shortly.
@OV: See this– https://leehamnews.com/2026/03/02/airbus-repeatedly-missing-the-mark-on-delivery-guidance/
The year end clean out @Airbus FAL’s always led to low deliveries in JAN, feb of the new year.
i.e. this is not really connected to full year deliveries ( planning, adjustments, final count )
It is and does as the deliveries are off for even the year to year shift.
That is going to have a downstream impact.
Frankly the frantic delivery garbage at the end of the year should quit. Airbus does not need to prove anything. They are still acting like a mfg wana be.
You will note that Boeing rolled right on (787 issue are currently attributed to seat issues)
The best production rate is a steady one, not jerks at the end of the month (see Soviet Union) or the end of the year (see Airbus).
What about the wiring defects that caused Boeing to stop delivery? Not just the 737 MAX, delivery of the 787 has also slowed to a crawl. What happened?
See my post below for more.
AB hugely upped production last year after a miserable Jan/Feb output.
Perhaps we should see what the situation is in a few months’ time?
It won’t be optimal, of course, because of the ongoing PW debacle; on the other hand, CFM is upping production compared to last year.
any idea on how many “gliders” Airbus has parked waiting for engines
Regarding the A320/A321neo:
I’ve found a handful of undelivered frames that are 0.3 years old…let’s say 4 months. That’s the oldest I’ve come across so far.
There are many dozens of frames with a test registration / hex code…so they presumably have engines and are undergoing flight testing (or about to).
In all, there are currently more than 300 frames in (various stages of) production.
===
As regards the A350:
3 have been delivered so far in March…so that line seems to be picking up some steam.
“Iran war has airlines reviewing growth plans as fuel surges”
“…Planemakers and aircraft leasing firms are worried that some of their customers may push back deals, according to people familiar with the matter.
“Discussions on future aircraft deals and leasing contracts, which provide airlines with aircraft sooner than outright purchases, have been put on temporary hold as some carriers in the Gulf and farther afield in Asia face operational difficulties, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the talks private”
“While carriers would normally need to pay penalties for delaying when they take aircraft, they might in this case declare force majeure, a clause that allows them to halt contracted deliveries without facing a fine, the people said.
“About 14% of Boeing’s backlog is from Middle Eastern airlines, according to Jefferies’ analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu. The US planemaker is especially exposed to the Middle East with its widebody order book with almost half of the orders for the upcoming 777X jet and a third of the 787 Dreamliner purchases from carriers in the region.
“Given the ongoing conflict, Middle East carriers may not be able to take deliveries of on order aircraft in the near term,” Kahyaoglu wrote in a note”
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/3213683/iran-war-has-airlines-reviewing-growth-plans-as-fuel-surges.
It seems after seeing Mr. Pete Heckseth’s remarks and insight, Gulf States are scratching their heads on contracts with OEM’s.
https://www.ibtimes.com/saudi-arabia-gulf-allies-reportedly-discussing-withdrawing-us-contracts-amid-rising-iran-tensions-3798677
Last year a lot of aircraft and arms deals were completed by the POTUS in this region.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpqe93rz5qvo
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/05/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-secures-200-billion-in-new-u-s-uae-deals-and-accelerates-previously-committed-1-4-trillion-uae-investment/
Very interesting…and not unexpected.
It won’t come as a surprise if some/all of those countries also end US use of bases within their territories.
The GCC countries are furious that the US ignored copious prior warnings about the consequences of a war on Iran.
===
“The United States Could Lose the Gulf”
“The Gulf states can no longer believe that the United States can or will protect them from existential threats. And even as they are forced to openly cooperate with Israel in its war, they will increasingly view it as a threat rather than a potential ally.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/05/iran-israel-united-states-war-gulf-countries-alliances/
Well, the viability of the 777x programme is now in question if this situation would lead to a catastrophic loss of orders.
https://www.aviatorsmaldives.com/post/20451
Please no more aircraft launches based on Sir Timothy wants…look at the A380 and 777x programs as failures (only about a dozen customers each). Why not ask South Asia airlines on what they want since are going to get 40% of the deliveries in the 20 years
“IndiGo CEO Pieter Elbers Steps Down With Immediate Effect”
“GURGAON — Pieter Elbers has resigned as CEO of IndiGo (6E), effective immediately, according to a company announcement dated March 10, 2026.
“IndiGo stated that Rahul Bhatia, Managing Director and co-founder, will serve as interim leader until a new CEO is appointed, which is expected soon. Board Chair Vikram Singh Mehta said the interim change aims to “strengthen the Company’s culture, reinforce operational excellence and deepen its commitment to delivering exceptional service.””
https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/indigo-ceo-elbers-steps-down-immediate-effect
Not surprising — the situation at Indigo has been a monumental mess lately.
Gulf money provides a substantial amount of funding to finance the build-up of data centers in the US. At a time when investors began to question the financing of private credit funds like Blue Owl, Blackstone etc.
https://altswire.com/blackstones-bcred-meets-record-7-9-redemption-requests/
##########
> In a stunning geopolitical shift, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar have simultaneously launched a comprehensive review of all financial agreements with Washington. This coordinated move, confirmed by both the Financial Times and Reuters, signals a potential fracturing of long-standing economic and security alliances that have anchored the region for decades.
The review comes amid heightened instability, following a series of Iranian ballistic missile strikes on the UAE and oil infrastructure in Bahrain. Gulf nations appear to be reconsidering their financial dependencies as the Pentagon “unleashes” U.S. soldiers for a high-intensity mission and the global energy market reels from the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Historically, these financial agreements—ranging from massive defense contracts to sovereign wealth fund investments—have been the bedrock of U.S. influence in the Middle East. A simultaneous withdrawal or renegotiation by these four major powers could trigger an unprecedented shift in global capital flows and weaken the dollar’s dominance in energy trading.
Wondering when we’ll be hearing that Saudi Arabia had ditched the petrodollar..
CNBC: Why China can withstand oil’s surge past $100 more easily than other countries
> The latest Middle East tensions shed light on how the world’s three largest oil consumers have taken different approaches to energy.
China has gradually increased the share of renewables in its total energy demand, more than the U.S. and India.
China is the world’s largest oil importer, but it relies less on energy imports than India does.
Natural gas imports through the route account for another 0.6%
The shift reflects two decades of strategic transition, giving China a unique position in global energy markets.
OTOH, the U.S. is the world’s largest consumer of oil, followed by China and India…
Of the three, India is the most dependent on petroleum imports, accounting for one-fourth of its total consumption…
Oil and natural gas only account for 4% of China’s power mix, far lower than the 40% to 50% share seen in many Asian economies
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/china-oil-shock-iran-war-hormuz-energy-transition.html
“The LNG project in Kitimat, British Columbia, exported five cargoes in the first 11 days of March, already exceeding half its total February volume, the data shows. A sixth shipment is due to depart on March 10.”
“All cargoes have been sent to Asia, with two heading to Japan, two to South Korea and one to the Philippines. The plant appears to be operating close to its full capacity of 14 million metric tons per year, according to the LSEG data.”
“LNG Canada is the first large-scale Canadian LNG facility to start production and the first major North American plant with direct access to the Pacific, shortening sailing time to Asian buyers compared with U.S. Gulf Coast exporters.”
wonder if the “Force majeure, a legal term meaning ‘superior force,’ allows parties to suspend contractual obligations when extraordinary events outside their control make fulfilment impossible” would allow the airlines to move their deliveries for years without any need to negotiate new terms with Boeing and Airbus Simply move x orders from x year to y year
Already in motion, according to multiple media outlets.
I’d be surprised if a force majeure clause would be required in order for Emirates and Qatar to terminate most of their 777X orders. The most recent contracts could, of course, be terminated using force majeure clauses.
I too have wondered about that.
I get a split screen take on it. If they have accepted the re-vamped delivery time line, have they adjusted the contract as well or that adjusts it automatically and its a mute. If not on the revised timeline it kicks in again.
Neither Boeing or Airbus can change a configuration on a short term notice and deliver to someone else so, at least 6 months and probably a year in the stream are impacted.
Even if you could and those you could, you then have to sell to someone to get their configuration ordered.
Short term regardless they will not be put into service and may well not be delivered. More storage. Mid and long is dictated by what happens and while we can speculate, if that did any good in this case, we would all be as rich as the OA says we are (and of course are not)
Gary Marcus on enduring issues with “AI”:
https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-spate-of-outages-including-incidents?
Can’t say we weren’t warned (repeatedly).
Another imp’t article on “AI”, from Fortune magazine:
https://fortune.com/2026/02/12/matt-shumers-viral-blog-about-ais-looming-impact-on-knowledge-workers-is-based-on-flawed-assumptions/
“Boeing says wiring flaws could delay first-quarter deliveries of 737 MAX jets”
“Boeing said on Tuesday first-quarter deliveries of its narrow-body 737 MAX jets could face delays due to wiring flaws, the latest hiccup for the troubled planemaker as CEO Kelly Ortberg looks to improve its reputation.
“”Our 737 program is performing rework on a group of airplanes to fix wires that have small scratches due to a machining error,” Boeing said, adding that production of its new MAX jets continue at the existing rate.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/10/boeing-says-wiring-flaws-could-delay-first-quarter-deliveries-of-737-max-jets.html
What does the KPI say?
Another raise of production rate goes unimpeded?
I’m glad they’re only “small scratches”.
Reassuring.
they been building the 737 for 61 years….is there any of old Boeing left?
No comment
> Sen Blumenthal remarks after Iran briefing: “I emerged from this briefing dissatisfied and angry frankly that I have for any past briefing in my 15 years in the Senate.. We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran.”
https://x.com/cspan/status/2031407407167922437
Oh I changed my mind: oil will blow through $130-$150 easily
Everything’s working according to plan, I kid you not.
let’s look at your oil price at $140 a barrel…compared to $60 a barrel in Jan 26…so here gas was about $3.10 a gallon in Jan…take $80 increase, oil analysts say for every $20 barrel increase is .50 a gallon at the pump….that would make it $5.10 a gallon
Just in:
“Oil Supply Risks Mount as Iran Lays Mines in Strait of Hormuz”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Supply-Risks-Mount-as-Iran-Lays-Mines-in-Strait-of-Hormuz.html
“In war, the first casualty is truth.”
Just sayin.
In Minnesota depending on where you are: gasoline has increased between 0.60 and$1.00 per gallon… This is on March 12.
Listen to those who have done their homework
> NYTimes Opinion: The Hormuz crisis hurts the U.S. MORE than it hurts China, which has been lessening its oil security problems with EVs for years.
https://t.co/LDROKwPBG0
Have you considered this?? 👇
Why can’t the US divorce from international oil supply?
“U.S. refiners are configured for imported crude oil feedstock. U.S. crude isn’t the right type. They can still refine it but the margins are worse and higher costs will be passed off to consumers.
More broadly, US production is hm high-cost production. In normal times, the U.S. benefits from being able to buy cheaper oil from world markets.
If U.S. severed the link in the long run, we’d probably pay higher prices than the global price, not a lower price.
The U.S. had oil import and export controls during the Cold War and U.S. consumers paid a 60% price premium compared to world markets.”
China gets about 1.5-ish million barrels a day from Iran. Iran isn’t blocking its own oil, and probably won’t attack Chinese vessels, either.
Other lost supplies China would’ve gotten from the Gulf they’ll buy from elsewhere, bidding up the price. Could be Russia, Canada, etc
Interesting question. Assuming for sake of argument, US controls Hormuz, could US hurt China?
My hunch is probably not—reason being that the oil market is a global bathtub. US would have to take the oil that travels thru Hormuz off the market entirely. Otherwise markets will just reroute non-Mideast oil to China, while Mideast oil gets rerouted elsewhere in the market.
Would the US be willing to deprive the entire world of 20% of global oil production, just to hurt China? Probably not.
In the long run, Chinese EVs solve the problem by decreasing the PRC’s reliance on oil from any source.
https://x.com/RKelanic/status/2030981858544984272
#########
One plays go while another plays checker.
“Dassault Chases Bizjet Market Pinnacle With Falcon 10X”
“Dassault Aviation’s fresh offering at the top end of the business jet market took its bow on Tuesday when the French airfamer rolled out its Falcon 10X model in Bordeaux. The very large cabin, ultra-long-range, high-speed aircraft is the second of several prototypes to be built at the group’s Mérignac production line, and one of these will soon be used for the first test flight.”
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2026-03-10/dassault-chases-bizjet-market-pinnacle-falcon-10x
If this is true, the impact is huge! He’s now in mess he created himself.
> U.S. intelligence assets have begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Iran is using smaller crafts that can carry 2 to 3 mines each. While Iran’s mine stock isn’t publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines…
https://x.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/2031433322555937181
It’s been reported:
> Washington had only two months of rare earths inventory, issue to dominate talks between Trump, Chinese President Xi.
Time to order 1,000 C919 and 300 C929. Deal?
WaPo: The Pentagon burned through $5.6 billion worth of munitions in the first two days of its Iran assault, according to U.S. officials, alarming some on Capitol Hill over how quickly the military has depleted scarce supplies of America’s most advanced weaponry.
##########
The game has changed: the (last) security guarantor has abdicated its responsibilities.
> Thought of the day: even if Trump ends the US involvement in the war today, the region will feel the consequences of the last ten days for decades to come
>
Related:
“South Korea opposed to U.S. moving air defense systems in the country to Middle East: President Lee”
“South Korean media has reported several flights of U.S. military transport aircraft at Osan Air Base since the Iran conflict started, noting that the C-5 Galaxy and C-17 Globemaster planes that were seen are used to typically carry Patriot systems and THAAD anti-ballistic missile systems.
“The U.S. move to deploy Patriot defense systems in South Korea to the Middle East comes against the backdrop of reports that air defense systems used by Gulf nations were running “dangerously low” on interceptors to defend against Iranian drone and missile strikes.
“IISS’ Kim said that U.S. missile supplies are already under significant strain, given that Iran continues to retaliate and the conflict is likely to be a prolonged one.
“If the redeployment happens, it will feed the perception that the U.S. is prioritizing its Middle East interests ahead of an Asian ally, an expert said.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/10/south-korea-patriot-transfer-iran-war-air-defenses.html
What’s up here with Paul Inman, NTSB?
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/white-house-says-ntsb-member-todd-inman-fired-over-alleged-misconduct-which-he-denies
I have done some looking.
Unfortunately anything coming out of Trump has to be labeled a lie. SOP for the dictators playbook, conjure up a lie. Fix leaf stuff we all know is a lie.
He crossed someone in that nut crew and in theory was fired.
I believe it has to be for cause and it will probably get over turned if he fights it.
New development:
> Boeing has paused 737 MAX deliveries while it assesses the scope of wiring damage on an undetermined number of aircraft and fixes the ones that have not gone to customers.
> “All in-service 737 MAX airplanes can continue to safely operate,” the statement added. “If action is required for the in-service fleet, we will issue updates through our normal service bulletin process.”
> Aero Analysis Partners (AAP) reports three deliveries in March, but none since March 5.
Word of the notice of escape came within the last few days, a second source tells Aviation Week.
Boeing’s February activity also included just three 787 deliveries amid ongoing supply chain struggles. The monthly figure was Boeing’s lowest for its signature widebody twinjet since November 2024.
Separately, Ringgold said Boeing’s planned 737 expansion in Everett, Washington, slated to open later this year, will increase capacity, “but it comes at a cost.” The line, which will build 737-8s, -9s, and -10s, will slowly ramp up and will have its own rate adjustments, separate from Boeing’s three MAX lines in Renton.
https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/manufacturing-supply-chain/boeing-737-max-wiring-issue-forces-delivery-pause-rework
BA -1.65% today
Down 16% from recent high reached on Jan 27
“notice of escape”- I love, love Boeing’s euphemisms!
“it escaped, all by its little self!”
> Boeing has paused 737 MAX deliveries while it assesses the scope of wiring damage on an undetermined number of aircraft and fixes the ones that have not gone to customers.”
Umm- what about the MAXes that *have* gone to customers- no need to fix ’em, I presume?
#should be fine / what an outfit
Vincent.
Notice of Escape at Boeing is actually a documented process for a vendor to notify Boeing that it has produced non-conforming product, and it is at Boeing. That’s why the reporting here is a bit suspect. Not that it didn’t happen, but why Boeing would say at the same time that it issued an NOE as well as said it is all done at Boeing. Its not washing, Vendors get NOE’s, internal Boeing issues don’t. The reporting has not told the story correctly yet. At least the system seems to be catching and IDing the problems…… Oh Yeah. Boeing also said that whatever they decided to do to in service aircraft will go thru the existing service bulletin process.
https://www.boeingsuppliers.com/content/dam/boeing/boeingsuppliers/boeing-suppliers/becoming/terms/clause-index/quality-clauses/q300-q399/Q320_Seller's_Notification_Of_Escapement_02112026.pdf
@Vincent
It’s now the operators’ responsibility to find out if any in their fleet suffers the same defect (and take corrective measures once Boeing has the time to complete its investigation and issue an service bulletin).
> The wiring damage occurred within Boeing, not at a supplier facility, the source added.
Pedro.
Here’s something we can agree on.
Boeing is being quite sketchy reporting the wiring issue.
They said it happened internally and yet they issued an NOE. I posted the updated NOE process memo, and it specifically said that it’s for Vendors to notify Boeing that there is a problem Boeing needs to be aware of. The reporting is suspect because the cause of the error isn’t readily identified. That’s really nontransparent.
Your note on in service aircraft being a burden to owners is probably correct. The operators, if notified of this, will be given a range of aircraft to check. what to look for and the remedial action needed as well as a compliance time frame, assuming Engineering doesn’t just buy it off. That’s industry standard, everybody does it.
My issue here is with a process called inside Boeing (and Airbus by other names) called Struc and Func. Structurally and Functionally acceptable for use as is. This means that a defect is not an engineering concern and over the years I’ve watched it used as a get out of jail free card by Engineering. I’ve always shook my head at the time and effort some defects get inside the factory foe some issues that engineering Struc and Functs the fleet for no remedial action. Either it needed rework or it didn’t, the location of the rework shouldn’t matter, but it seems to matter when minor defects are in the fleet. I suspect the fleet will never see a service bulletin here and it’s been one of those things I’m glad never bit me when I was working rejection tag planning for the fuselage sections I was responsible for.
The whole subject of when is a defect a defect shouldn’t include its physical location. If it REQUIRES rework in the factory, it should require fleet action, but in a very large number of cases, engineering says that non-conforming parts are fine to deliver. This process occurs at both Boeing and Airbus and is one of those ugly questions that rarely sees the light of day……. Have a great day
Confirmed by Boeing CFO per LNA
[Boeing CFO] Jay Malave said that a quality defect on the 737 line affected about 25 airplanes. The defect was spotted by Boeing and involves scratched wiring traced to a miscalibrated machine at a Boeing facility.
Airbus has had a recent **escape** in its A320/321 fuselage production which maybe related to the low February deliveries -35 compared to last years 50-
https://airinsight.com/airbus-delivers-only-35-aircraft-in-february/
PEDRO wrote
Reality check:
AI Summary
> Thorium research in US nuclear labs was primarily paused in the early 1970s, with a major shutdown of the Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in December 1969. (snip) The primary reasons for dropping the technology included **technical challenges like high corrosion, the high cost of a new fuel cycle, and a, at the time, perceived lower breeding ratio compared to fast-breeder reactors**.
PEDRO….PLEASE STOP AI DATA DECADES OUT OF DATE.
The corrosion issues are now handled by new metallurgy Qualified for 60 years of use. China is leading the world in safe nuke power not needing water for cooling, allowing plants to be built anywhere.
China’s thorium reactor program, particularly its molten salt reactor (MSR) at Wuwei, addresses corrosion challenges originally identified in 1960s U.S. experiments like the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE). Those early tests revealed that molten fluoride salts at high temperatures (over 700°C) aggressively corroded standard metals due to fluoride ion attack and impurities like tellurium.
Corrosion Mitigation Approach
China uses custom-developed alloys based on Hastelloy-N, a nickel-molybdenum-chromium superalloy originally pioneered in the U.S. in the 1960s but refined for better purity and resistance. These alloys withstand radiation, thermal stress, and chemical degradation in the fluoride salt environment, enabling reliable operation for decades.
Key Metallurgy Advances
Impurity Control: Modern Chinese Hastelloy variants minimize chromium carbides and include trace elements like niobium or titanium to block tellurium diffusion, a primary corrosion vector in MSRE findings.
Salt Chemistry Management: Online reprocessing removes fission products and maintains salt purity (e.g., low oxide/tritide levels), reducing corrosive contaminants far beyond 1968 capabilities.
Coating and Testing: Enhanced surface treatments and accelerated corrosion testing under neutron flux simulate long-term exposure, with alloys now qualified for 60+ years.
These fixes enabled China’s 2 MWt prototype to reach full power in 2024 and refuel online in October 2024 without shutdown, marking a breakthrough.
Maybe the reactor won’t need cooling for a stable reaction but I doubt the steam turbine producing the electrical energy will run efficiently without proper cooling.
Then there is waste and also uranium isn’t an endless available resource. Biggest producer of uranium is Kazakhstan (~40 %). About half of all uranium is enriched in the country north to Kazakhstan.
The ultimate thing is the price tag.
Current reactors primarily use low enriched Uranium-235, which is less than 1% of natural uranium in its ores.
Breeder reactors can use the much more abundant Uranium-238, potentially extending the lifespan of current reserves by a factor of 60 to 100.
Current reserves are at 90-100 years anyway
PNWgeek
The US sat on its hands while others took the effort and worked to resolve the issue. It’s all about priorities!
Funding in the US went away in the Nixon era.
Curious that this is what’s dropped from your quote which provided a good explanation:
“This decision, influenced by the Nixon administration and Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) officials, **prioritized the development of uranium-based liquid metal fast-breeder reactors**.”
It’s well-established that the US and other nuclear powers chose the path of uranium-based fission reactors because they produce plutonium as a by-product…and plutonium is necessary for weapons use.
Uranium-based reactors bring a whole plethora of challenges…but these were accepted because of the need to produce plutonium.
Doubtful that the US will have a working, commercial, thorium-based reactor any time in the near future.
Thats not now the case for US reactors. Its a once through cycle and no reprocessing to extract plutonium. The amounts of Pu needed come from specialised military reactors and of course recycled bomb materials.
MOX is a nuclear power station fuel thats a mix of oxides of fissile fuel, including mostly uranium and some plutonium.
30 thermal reactors in Europe use MOX in the form of sintered pellets
Pedro.
I snipped it because that was too simplistic an explanation of what really happened.
The National Nuclear program at the time was being driven by Hyman Rickover and the Navy. The Nascent NRC was staffed with graduates from his command. The Navy took advantage of the endless cooling possibilities of the ocean as an endless heat sink that would cool exceptionally dense reactor cores with little need to worry about wastewater as the oceanic dilution made occasional releases non consequential. The USAF was flying Chrome Dome missions at the time and felt that they would be cut out of the future battlespace as their manned bombers lacked the endurance to remain on station without a huge air tanker lift and rotation of aircraft and crews on station at fail safe distances…. Curtis Lemay, the architect of the Strategic Air Command saw nuclear energy as an answer to his endurance problem and reliance on a tanker force. His vision was the Nuclear Powered Bomber. The Air Force was tasked to produce an AIR COOLED nuclear reactor that could fly anywhere the crew wished to go . Missions were expected to go for weeks at a time. Remember that this was at the height of the cold war and piles of money were getting spent on RandD. The Air force came up with the MSR, the Molten Salt Reactor. It worked well, produced the power expected and ultimately became the power source for the Nuclear Jet Engine. The engine took cold air in the front and heated it to very high temperatures ejecting it out the back producing gobs of thrust. It did everything the designers asked it to do . It was light, air cooled, relatively simple and easy to produce. It also had the achilles heel of irradiating the airstream going through the engine. Basically, the longer you operated the engine, the more uncontained radioactive content would come out of the engine. You didnt actually have to bomb anyone, if you flew over them long enough, you could do more damage by spreading radioactivity over the entire country. This program got buried not so much as for the technical issues with corrosion, but because the NAVY got it disqualified by supposedly safer water cooled reactors.
Thorium Reactors did have corrosion issues and the Navy correctly called them out to keep the USAF out of the Nuke Powerplant Game that Westinghouse and the Navy captured with the blessing of the Atomic Energy Commission that was staffed with Nuclear Navy Veterans.
Fast Forwarding decades. We have all this data sitting in Tennesee, a Chinese Delegation visits Oak Ridge and scoops up all the data for the cost of making copies, and they go home and build Proof of concept reactors. They have had a 2 MW plant on line for a few years and are building a huge plant today with an expected turn on time of 2035. Suffice it to say that they will be successful and are way ahead of the world here. They are also building the first LFTR based Container ship.
https://maritime-innovations.com/china-thorium-reactor-ship/
https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=status+on+chinese+thorium+reactor+powered+container+ship&mid=FFD4D65F93195A767199FFD4D65F93195A767199&FORM=VIRE
Instead of Pooh Poohing the LFTR progress by citing very old data, look at what’s really happening.
https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=status+on+large+thorium+reactor&&mid=3CCC8DCBCE0A4844A7783CCC8DCBCE0A4844A778&FORM=VRDGAR
https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=thorium+in+5+minutes&mid=D443A227085670EE4028D443A227085670EE4028&FORM=VIRE
Have a great day
> WSJ: U.S. has not provided naval escorts to tankers because of the risks of Iranian attack on U.S. warships close to Iran’s shores.
Escalating Hormuz Crisis Raises Specter of Prolonged Closure
https://t.co/K19Ar2DZKN
Iran has imposed a war risk premium increasing insurance rates to transit the Strait of Hormuz by 4-7 times. 1,000 ships trapped. Iran & Chinese ships transit it. 13+ days with no effective US military defense or offense.
There you go, the US Navy dare not get near Iran because of the risks involved. Clear implication is the USN won’t get anywhere near the first island chain in a future conflict.
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Timing is pure coincidence! Can’t write a better script for comedy.
> Merchant vessel Seaway Hawk transporting decommissioned U.S. Navy Avenger-class Mine Countermeasures Ships USS Devastator, USS Dextrous, USS Gladiator and USS Sentry in the Delaware Bay to unload in Philadelphia tomorrow – March 9, 2026
> US retired its last dedicated minesweepers in Middle East in 2025.
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Reuters: Induction stoves fly off shelves in India as gas shortage fears spark panic buying
https://t.co/pXRlbE0Epn
Imagine where the components are made.
PNWgeek
Earlier than you could imagine
> China has already broken ground on a larger, 10 MWe demonstration reactor, also located near Wuwei in Gansu Province, which will generate both electricity and hydrogen. This facility, slated for completion by 2030, is designed to produce 60 MW of thermal energy, contributing to China’s larger goal of building a renewable and low-carbon energy hub in the desert.
Terminated in 1961! The good old days.
> The Aircraft Nuclear Propulsion program was terminated by President Kennedy after his annual budget message to Congress in 1961.
How about dealing with more practical problems like:
> One inadequately solved design problem was the need for heavy shielding to protect the crew and those on the ground from radiation; other potential problems included dealing with crashes.
Half-baked ideas are nothing new! There’s one from DJT happening in real-time.
Pedro……
We Agree
I said the 2nd reactor, tbeir 1st at scale unit was set to go online by 2035. It woulsnt suprise me ro see that date pulled forward.
The whole nuke bomber was fatally flawed in concept for so many reasons existing only to keep the USAF supposesly relevant while the navy jumped ahead in deployment of force. The 2 services reached something close to parity with ICBMS and sea based missiles sharing the load with conventional bombers. The so called nifty fifties were a great time to be designers as you could sell damn near any idea to the defense department….
Im finding the poweeplant for the container sbip especially interesting. You should be able to replicate them by the thousands and electrify vast areas now minimally served.
I really think Thorium reactors will be the next energy revolution and will lift people around the world. India for example is running full speed to gain the knowlege to deploy them
Have a grwat day
“… that was too simplistic an explanation of what really happened.”
Not really. It summaries:
“At the time, the US government was heavily interested in breeder reactors to meet the projected need for nuclear fuel.”
“The competition came down to a liquid metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) on the uranium-plutonium cycle and a thermal reactor on the thorium-233U cycle, the molten salt breeder reactor. The LMFBR had a larger breeding rate … and won the competition.”
> “Why did the US abandon a lead in reactor design?” Physics Today
> “A Brief History of the Liquid-Fluoride Reactor” Thorium Energy
> “Milton Shaw: And the decline of the American Nuclear Establishment”. Thorium Energy
> “Thorium-fuelled Reactor Using Molten Salt Technology”, Journal of Nuclear Technology
CNN:
> The Pentagon & National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US military strikes while planning the ongoing operation, [per] sources…
Top Trump officials acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the strait in response to strikes, per 3 sources.
> The reason, multiple sources said, was administration officials believed closing the strait would hurt Iran more than the US…
https://t.co/LPvG8imhu6
Military conflict during the Suez Crisis lasted only nine days.
#########
> Israeli and Western estimates say the number of Iranian missile launchers has remained largely unchanged despite a week of intense airstrikes due to the difficulty of locating small, mobile targets without full aerial control.
This was a part of a larger article I can access. Pretty funny that they get a whole 4 more seats! Remove one luxury seat!
“Russian flag-carrier Aeroflot is reconfiguring nearly 30 single-aisle jets to reduce premium accommodation in favor of more economy seats. The airline will change the layout of 22 Boeing 737-800s and seven Airbus A320s. Aeroflot says the 737s’ capacity will increase from 158 to 162, by cutting the business-class cabin from …”
ps: There is a place to comment on ME stuff (supposedly aviation related)
Flight Global
‘The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is set to require airlines to inspect 787s for fatigue cracks created by manufacturing errors involving too-large “shim gaps” between structural components.”
“A proposed airworthiness directive released on 12 March by the FAA is the latest step taken by the regulator to address gap-related structural issues affecting 787s.”
David.
This is a continuation of the Boing Alert Service Bulletin B787– 81205–SB570048 RB, Issue 001 dated August 11, 2025. It looks to cover 17 aircraft. The AD note indicated that Boeing has accomplished corrective action BUT there is now a recurring Ultrasonic inspection required. The cost per aircraft per inspection cycle is $24, 310 with a total per inspection cycle of $413,270 for the fleet.
This is not related to circumferential frame shimming at the fuselage; it is in the side of body/spar interface where excessive clamp up was used to mate parts. It’s unfortunate that it happened, but good to see the system caught a process error and issued corrections to the fleet.
As mentioned before for C929 program from 2024 article
Comac is going to use Brotje Automation (Germany/Shanghai Electric Automation (Brotje Automation parent) for mid front fuselage panel assembly line (Zhejiang Huarui Aviation)
here is a video of the type of MPAC being used on front fuselage of the C929
MPAC video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpS07wMlBf4
Comac C929 program has access to leading production automation equipment technologies
just a fyi…Shanghai Electric bought Broetje Automation in 2016 for about 180 million Euros.
just a fyi…Shanghai Electric was awarded C929 Aircraft Mid-Rear Fuselage Panel Automated Hole Drilling and Stud Insertion Production Line in November 2025
video of Broetje-Automation at a Glance (owned by Shanghai Electric Automation)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfsVqXQEoj8
Why are they building an automation process for aluminium fuselage wide body ?
google AI
“The Airbus A350 fuselage features a primarily carbon-fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) construction, utilizing large composite panels laid over composite frames to form the structure. It boasts 53% composite material content, employing CFRP for the skin, frames, stringers, and cabin floor beams, with titanium/aluminum components for specific reinforcements”
C929 is following the same method