EADS and its subsidiary Airbus will have their year-end 08 press conferences January 13 and 15 to discuss 2008 orders, events and the outlook for 2009.
This comes on the heals of a January 9 analyst report by Goldman Sachs (London) on EADS with a Sell recommendation entitled, “It’s worse than we thought.”
The gloomy report follows one in December, also a Sell rating, that Goldman today says wasn’t gloomy enough.
The Goldman analysts look at plunging worldwide airline traffic, the dismal state of affairs in China’s aviation sector and what is now at least a three year delay in the troubled A400M program, also worse than thought in the December report. (More after the jump.)
Goldman believes that the A400M will have a negative impact on the A350, pushing introduction of the A350 from 2013 to 2015. The reason: engineering resources necessary for the A400M will be diverted from the A350, delaying this program.
We remind readers that we’ve previously identified the diversion of engineering resources from a variety of programs at Boeing, most specifically the 747-8, to the delayed 787 as a major issue at Boeing. This Goldman prediction sounds like deja vu all over again.
Goldman makes the mistake, as is so often the case among observers, of citing the A350 vs the 787 instead of recognizing that two of the three A350 models compete with the Boeing 777, not the 787. Goldman reported that a 2015 A350 EIS gives Boeing a five year head-start over the A350 with the 787. (This assumes, of course, that Boeing actually makes its first delivery in 2010, as the fourth revised schedule now calls for.) In fact, the first A350 model to enter service will be the -900 model, which is aimed at the 777-200 series, not across from the 787-8, which competes with the A330 series and Boeing’s own 767-300ER.
Be all that as it may, Goldman’s London analysts are as negative on the aerospace sector as Goldman’s New York analyst, given the sharp declines in commercial aviation worldwide.