Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing for Boeing, outlined Boeing’s update for the Current Market Outlook for the 20 years from 2012-2031. Aircraft in the world fleet has nearly tripled from about 6,500 to more than 19,000 today.
(We will post more detail July 5.)
- Fuel prices have forced some regional jets out of the market because they are no longer viable, Tinseth says.
- There will be 13,000km in of high speed rail in China by the end of this year, more than the rest of the world combined.
- By 2020, China will open 97 new airports.
- 60%-80% of travel is tied to GDP and economic demand.
- Passenger travel has historically grown at 5% per year.
- Non-stop, point-to-point, more frequency growing and airplane size is shrinking.
- Expect to see world fleet grow to nearly 40,000 airplanes by 2031. 40% of demand will be for retirements, 60% for growth.
- Replacement market is very, very important for us. 500 retirements last year.
- There will be demand for 940 production freighters.
- China, Asia, Asia-Pacific will grow the fastest. 35% of demand will be here.
- Cargo traffic has been much more volatile because more closely tied to economies. Growth has been steady but has slowed.
- Over next 20 years see demand for 2800 freighters, 940 new, rest conversions. 940 airplanes valued at $250bn.
- About Airbus Mobile: I was a salesman and to be successful you have to do three things: it’s about the product and pricing; it’s about people; it’s about your relationship. Your customers are focusing on those things, not the address on your business card. What drives US and North American airlines, it’s about the business case. I don’t see how this drive the business case. You have to ask Airbus about efficiency. They are building airplanes in four different places.
- About the $500bn increase in value over 20 years: We will see some modest up-gauging in single aisle market, from A319/737-700 size to address airport issues to A320/737-800 and will see it go to 737-9/A321. This is driving some of the change. The twin-aisle market sees the strength in the 777-300 size aircraft.
- On the twin-aisle market: it’s split about 50-50 between small twins and large twins, a little heavier toward large twins. Long-term expect shifting up from 787-8 to -9 and -10.
- On Very Large Aircraft: demand down about 1%. Big airplanes are operated by a handful of carriers in a handful of markets. We’ve probably been a little optimistic in this. A380 after 10 years has sold about where we expected (there are 258 sales–editor).