Can the 787 pay its debts?

By Bjorn Fehrm

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04 February, 2015, © Leeham Co: Boeing has presented its results for the last quarter of 2015. It was a quarter for Boeing with solid performance in revenue ($96.1bn) and in cash generation ($9.4bn).

Despite that, Wall Street was not pleased. The 747-8 program is not selling well and the upcoming production bridges for 737NG to 737 MAX and 777 to 777X are no longer to be ignored.

The results presentation is also our chance to check our analysis around the 787 program; will it be able to pay its debts within the forecasted period by Boeing (in the program accounting block of 1,300 units)?


  • Boeing reports deferred costs in line with or slightly better than expectations. We decode what this means for the deferral curve for the 787 and from which parts of the 787 program the improvements came.
  • Smith also gave new information regarding learning effects for 787-8 and 787-9 and when the 787 goes cash positive. We check if this changes any of our assumptions for our forecast for the program.

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