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By Judson Rollins

Introduction 

August 19, 2024, © Leeham News: Boeing issued the latest edition of its annual Pilot and Technician Outlook (PTO) last month, forecasting demand for 2.3 million new aviation personnel by 2043.

Of these, 649,000 are new pilots, 690,000 are new technicians, and 938,000 are new cabin crew.

"Driven by aviation traffic trending above pre-pandemic levels, personnel attrition, and commercial fleet growth, the demand for aviation personnel continues to rise," said Chris Broom, vice president of Commercial Training Solutions at Boeing Global Services.

Source: United Airlines.

The Seattle-based OEM says demand for new personnel will be driven primarily by single-aisle airplanes, except in Africa and the Middle East, where widebody airplane demand will be the key factor.

According to the forecast, greater Europe — what Boeing now calls “Eurasia” — China and North America will account for more than half of new industry personnel.

The company believes South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa will be the fastest-growing regions for personnel, with demand expected to more than triple within 20 years.

Two-thirds of new personnel will address replacement due to retiring staff and other attrition, while one-third will support growth in the commercial fleet.

Summary

• The global pilot shortage may peak sooner than expected.
• Technician recruiting is increasingly hampered by competition from other industries and obsolete educational programs.
• Increasing cabin crew attrition could drive higher costs for airlines.