Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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Aviation’s recruiting problem shifting from pilots to technicians, cabin crew
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
August 19, 2024, © Leeham News: Boeing issued the latest edition of its annual Pilot and Technician Outlook (PTO) last month, forecasting demand for 2.3 million new aviation personnel by 2043.
Of these, 649,000 are new pilots, 690,000 are new technicians, and 938,000 are new cabin crew.
“Driven by aviation traffic trending above pre-pandemic levels, personnel attrition, and commercial fleet growth, the demand for aviation personnel continues to rise,” said Chris Broom, vice president of Commercial Training Solutions at Boeing Global Services.
Source: United Airlines.
The Seattle-based OEM says demand for new personnel will be driven primarily by single-aisle airplanes, except in Africa and the Middle East, where widebody airplane demand will be the key factor.
According to the forecast, greater Europe — what Boeing now calls “Eurasia” — China and North America will account for more than half of new industry personnel.
The company believes South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa will be the fastest-growing regions for personnel, with demand expected to more than triple within 20 years.
Two-thirds of new personnel will address replacement due to retiring staff and other attrition, while one-third will support growth in the commercial fleet.
Summary
- The global pilot shortage may peak sooner than expected.
- Technician recruiting is increasingly hampered by competition from other industries and obsolete educational programs.
- Increasing cabin crew attrition could drive higher costs for airlines.
Growing Opposition to ALPA’s Attack on Regionals
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Kathryn B. Creedy
Analysis
May 15, 2023, © Leeham News: Using the same tired arguments, the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) on May 5 urged the Department of Transportation to reject SkyWest’s year-old proposal to create a Part 135 public charter under Part 380 of the Department’s regulations to serve Essential Air Service (EAS) markets.
Credit: Republic Airways
ALPA, in a letter co-signed by nine other unions, claimed SkyWest Charter is a backhanded attempt to bypass the 1,500-hour pilot experience rule. The airline says its proposal is to continue serving most of its EAS points under the same regulations governing other EAS carriers. Further, it attacked the public charter rule objecting to JSX operations, a catalyst for engaging the business aviation against the union.
ALPA may be skating on thin ice, not realizing the 1,500-hour rule is increasingly irrelevant given statements on Capitol Hill favoring pilot training reform and the popularity of the EAS program among legislators.
