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By Scott Hamilton

Oct. 31, 2024, © Leeham News: When Boeing held its first investors day since 2018 in November 2022, then-CEO David Calhoun projected that the production rate for the 737 would be 50/mo sometime next year, three years hence.

John Schmidt, Accenture. Credit: Accenture.

This rate was slightly below the 52/mo production on March 9, 2019. The next day, an Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 crashed on take-off from Addis Ababa. It was the second MAX crash in five months. The two disasters killed 346 people. China grounded more than 80 MAXes operated by its airlines the same day. Europe’s EASA regulator and Transport Canada followed shortly. The Federal Aviation Administration didn’t follow suit until March 13.

Twenty-one months later, the FAA recertified the MAX. Global regulators followed, with China’s CAAC being the last to do so.

In March 2019, Boeing planned on boosting production to 57 a month by the end of the year. Planning was underway to increase production to 63/mo and even into the 70s.

Calhoun’s guidance blew out the window when a door plug blew out of a 737-9 MAX at 16,000 ft on Jan. 5 this year. But for the grace of God, there were no fatalities and only minor injuries. Pilots made a safe emergency landing. The ensuing investigation revealed production and safety lapses. The FAA clamped down on Boeing, officially capping production at 38/mo for now. In reality, new production hovered around 20/mo before the assemblers, the IAM 751 union, went on strike on Sept. 13. There is no end in sight.

Boeing's new production 737 line has been well below the target of 38/mo all year. Source: Bernstein Research, Oct. 29, 2024.

So, when will Boeing get to a rate of 50/mo? A consulting firm—which occasionally consults with Boeing—predicts it will be another five years. Around November 2029. It’s a stunning prediction.