Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
- Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada June 14, 2025
- Little known, most unknown in Air India 171 crash June 13, 2025
Updated, May 29, 2025: Department of Justice, Boeing OK to Non-Prosecution Agreement
UPDATE, May 30, 2025: The Non-Prosecution Agreement was filed with the federal court in the Northern District of Texas yesterday. Here is the document: 5-29-25 Boeing-MAX DOJ NPA
May 23, 2025, (c) Leeham News: The US Department of Justice and Boeing okayed the framework of a Non-Prosecution Agreement to finally resolve the litigation dating to the 2018/19 737 MAX accidents and the Jan. 5, 2024, Alaska Airlines flight 1282 accident. The notice was filed today in the federal court of the Northern District of Texas.
Boeing agrees to pay a total of $1.1bn in fines, compensation and investments. Some of this was previously paid with a Deferred Prosecution Agreement reached in 2021; and some was agreed in a second DPA reached last December. The first DPA was essentially voided following the Flight 1282 accident and the second was rejected on procedural grounds by the judge in the Texas federal court.
The notice may be downloaded here: NPA Notice 5-23-25.
The full agreement should be filed next week, the DOJ said.
Family reaction
The DOJ said many families of the victims of the 2018 and 2019 crashes support the NPA. However, a law firm representing some families said they do not agree.
“Families who lost loved ones reacted with tremendous grief and even anger at the sudden turnaround in allowing Boeing to withdraw from its earlier guilty plea in a criminal fraud case announced by the Department of Justice (DOJ) late today,” Clifford Law said in a press release. “The DOJ said it does not intend to proceed with a criminal fraud trial against Boeing regarding two crashes of the 737 MAX8 aircraft six years ago killing 346 people. Many family members have repeatedly said that the DOJ is not working in the public interest in this matter.”
Pathetic. No accountability fro Boeing.
The deal isn’t yet a fact — it has to be approved by the court in Texas if it is to be enacted.
Central to this process will be whether the judge thinks that the deal does justice to the victims’ interests under the Crime Victims Rights Act.
If the judge rejects the deal, then trial will begin on June 23.
It is, however, worse than disgraceful that BA and the DOJ are behaving in such a gratuitous manner in complete disregard of the victims’ families sentiment.
Expect the Rubber Stamp.
I have very low expectations these days, in view of the ongoing degradation of rules-based administration at the other side of the pond.
That being said, Judge O’Connor has — up to now — shown great moral fiber, and a willingness to “shake the tree”. So, maybe we’ll get a surprise here.
I’d be very happy to be wrong, in this case.
Here’s a relevant citation from the pertinant Fifth Circuit Appeal Court ruling in this matter:
“With the above in mind, the logic of our court’s decision in In re Dean, is instructive and, in application here, determinative. As in Dean, the victims’ families “should have been notified of the ongoing [DPA] discussions and should have been allowed to communicate meaningfully with the government . . . before a deal was struck.” 527 F.3d at 395. That is particularly true if the deal, in ultimate outcome as approved by federal court, means no company, and no executive and no employee, ends up convicted of any crime, despite the Government and Boeing’s DPA agreement about criminal wrongdoing leading, the district court has found, to the deaths of 346 crash victims.”
“If a sought-for final stage is a Government motion to dismiss, we are confident, as in Dean, that the district court will assess the public interest according to caselaw as well as the CVRA, including violations already admitted to, as well as any other circumstances brought to its attention by the victims’ families. See United States v. Hamm, 659 F.2d 624, 629 (5th Cir. Unit A Oct. 1981) (en banc) (reiterating Supreme Court and prior Fifth Circuit precedent that district judges are empowered to deny dismissal when “clearly contrary to manifest public interest” as assessed “at the time of the decision to dismiss”) ….”
https://reason.com/volokh/2023/12/18/fifth-circuit-rules-that-victims-families-challenge-to-the-boeing-deferred-prosecution-agreement-is-premature/
Of course, they get away with a lot because American Government is a HUGE Failure of epic proportions. Greedy Company that hates women Veterans.
Before everyone pops an artery. Consider what the tobacco companies pay per lung cancer death. Ford paid for the Pinto. Or what is contemplated for opioid deaths. And then decide what scenario was more egregious. The settlement works out to $3.18M per victim. If you have an issue with rate that is offered then consider what the rest of industry pays. If not $3.18M then what is the right answer? Most victims families are not nearly as fortunate. You could put Boeing out of business, but they already have negative value. Is that really winning
I think the victims’ families are more interested in getting to the truth of the matter than in increasing the size of their monetary compensation.
Why did BA flout the law and conspire to commit fraude against the FAA, thereby putting hundreds of lives at risk?
Concealing and faking so as to deceive a safety regulator is pretty grave stuff.
That’s the crime that BA was arraigned for, and no answers have yet been given.
I’m getting $1.28 million average per victim,after a hard battle.
What we are really after is finding out the truth about exactly how this disaster came about and in particular the period between both crashes.This is what Boeing and the US establishment really doesn’t want us to know
@All
Discovery is fair game. I think it’s healthy to reveal how this went wrong. If you want the truth, BA wanted this certification cheap and quick and cut major corners. The main problem was their own testing revealed major problems before cert. Institutionally, Boeing was overconfident in its product. Hubris and sloppy work proved otherwise.
Btw…my math is $1.1B for 346 victims. You can check my math At least it’s done now. The families can move on. It’s been 6 years. This could easily have gone far longer and eventually only the lawyers win.
“At least it’s done now. The families can move on.”
Not true at all.
The deal is between the DOJ and BA…but it has yet to be approved (or not) by the overseeing court.
https://www.enca.com/business/us-boeing-reach-deal-resolve-max-criminal-case
My maths is $445 million for 346 victims
This is what was announced,although some sources are saying $445 additional compensation for the families .
There is a lot of sneakiness going on ,huge fines that go to who knows who and by far the biggest number is just compensation for the airlines for late delivery,which is somehow dragged into the equation
Perhaps Scott or Bjorn could go through the $1.1 billion and tell us what it means?And all of the other vague “fines” have been imposed.”Investment” has been mentioned as part of the “settlement”,what the hell is that?
wiki
“Among airlines based in modern economies (e.g, North America, Western Europe and Japan, for example) compensation payments to the families of airline crash victims can run from $2.4 million to $4.1 million per passenger”
IIRC the big tobacco settlement in the late 1990s is to compensate health care costs bore by states, not to compensate individual deaths.
Not a lawyer, in states that did not sign up to the Master Settlement Agreement, individual smokers (or their surviving families or estates) should be able to sue a cigarette manufacturer.
Too big to fail…too big to be held accountable
This (shameful) development should come as absolutely no surprise to anyone. The current administration, with its super cosy relationship to Boeing, is in no way minded to have Boeing labelled a ‘felon’, with all the business implications that would have. Sadly, this is just another example of morality being trashed for profit and gain. My thoughts are with the victims’ families and loved ones. They have been so let down and have deserved so much better throughout.
+1
In 10 years Boeing will state they never were convicted of any wrong doing. Forgiving supporters will believe & repeat. The fine will be written down in a number of years from company results, probably deductible from state taxes.
I have predicted the second Trump government would step in to save strategic Boeing in a dozen visible and invisible ways. We see it in the Qatar / Middle East, situations like this, more to come. Trump only seems impressed by free market dynamics / international law if they work for the US.
https://www.bhfs.com/insights/alerts-articles/2025/trump-secures-trillion-dollar-deals-during-gulf-visit-signaling-shift-to-commercial-diplomacy
Longer term benefits / continued inefficiencies / credibility ? Tbd..
So, will the next safety problem be found and acted upon by Boeing, or will they hide the data, and see if it causes an accident or incident again?
A spreadsheet analysis of the costs involved to management seems to be the driving force these days. They control the FAA and the inspectors. There
is no countervailing force. They are in total control. Other than their conscience, what is stopping them from ignoring a major safety issue again?
There are no penalties to them directly. Not even much mention in the news. Only a few billion dollars of penalties to the corporation. Is anyone
taking reponsability for the missing bolts? Does the FAA even today know who was working on the retrofit of the door and forgot the bolts?
https://www.wral.com/story/boeing-still-doesn-t-know-who-removed-and-reinstalled-the-part-that-blew-off-an-alaska-airlines-jet/21564695/
Do you see anyone being held accountable for the last major Boeing incident? The door plug? It’s been investigated for over a year, congressional
hearings have been held. The FAA Chairman have testified, BUT, NOT ONE PERSON HAS BEEN HELD ACCOUNTABLE.
https://data.ntsb.gov/Docket/?NTSBNumber=DCA24MA063
I guess in the future we’ll just blame the ‘artificial intelligence’. We have an open loop. Someone didn’t do their job, and it could have cost
someone their life. And no one wants to find out who that someone is. Other than peoples conscience, where is the incentive to do the right thing?
How can we have any trust in the system? Because Boeing now has put a sign on the door? William LeMessurier is an Engineer with Integrity.
His story is written about in obscure journals for doing the right thing. https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/structural-integrity/
Very few people knew what he did. But, he did the right thing. Even now, his name is mostly unknown by the world. He should get a medal.
The someone at Boeing doesn’t have integrity. Either the someone that knew about the missing bolt issue and didn’t report it, or the someone that
should have checked the repair and signed off under time pressure etc. There is no integrity at Boeing, until that someone steps forward and takes
responsability for their action or lack of action. The NTSB inquiry is still open.
As long as people are not charged, the corporate fines have never changed a company.
What changed Boeing finally was Airlines telling Boeing they would not order aircraft unless they changed.
It was not the two MAX-8 crashes that caused that. It was the door blank failure and the reality it had gotten so bad quality control wise that the actions involved were not logged. The FAA finally put boots on the ground and the knee jerk reactions were a way of life contrary to all cert standards and in place systems.
Its a bizarre wold where people die and nothing happens but people don’t die with the incident in the US and that started the change. The people on the aircraft were beyond lucky and fortunate there was no loss.
Its worth reading one of the books on the Johnsonville Damn collapse. Said damn was purely to create a lake for a group of Millionaires aka tycoons of the day and not one was held accountable.
Haha never heard of (the breakup of) Alstom??
https://www.counterpunch.org/2016/12/02/behind-ges-takeover-of-alstom-energy/
https://www.economist.com/business/2019/01/17/how-the-american-takeover-of-a-french-national-champion-became-intertwined-in-a-corruption-investigation
> Last, the case raises uncomfortable questions about American officials’ uncompromising techniques. It suggests that foreign companies may receive more lenient treatment if they pass into American ownership. The possibility of a link between Alstom’s legal woes and the sale of its crown jewels to ge has vexed French policymakers, not least Emmanuel Macron, France’s president.
FG: Boeing makes design tweaks to address 777-9 thrust-link problem
> “The 777-9 team is making improvements to the new airplane’s thrust links to address a vibration that led to cracking of the structural..
Qatar Airways Secretly Cancels New Boeing 737 MAX 10 Order (as part of its mega deal with Boeing)
FYI.
Ordered was cancelled 2 months ago.
Hardly anything secretive about it.
I’m sure you’re capable of going back to Boeing’s March orders and deliveries and see for yourself.
https://www.scramble.nl/civil-news/boeing-march-2025-orders-deliveries
Now that was easy wasn’t it 😆
Hi Greg,
Check your figures!
Your Scramble.nl link from March only lists a Qatar cancellation of 25 737 MAX — without specifying subtype.
As it happens, Qatar ordered 28 MAX-8s all the way back in 2014, of which only 3 have been delivered. So, since 28-3=25, that suggests that your March cancellation relates to those frames.
Pedro’s post, on the other hand, specifically relates to the MAX-10…which Qatar only ordered in 2022. And the official cancellation was only announced 2 days ago.
https://onemileatatime.com/news/qatar-airways-cancels-boeing-737-max-order/
“Now that was easy wasn’t it 😆”
***
Mmmhh, a cancellation of a total of 50 MAXs puts a sizable dent in all the pzazz surrounding that recent big widebody order from Qatar…
Hi Byrce.
Long time no time .
Right on cue I see..
Defending your ole mate again.
Golly it’s so good to be back.
Don’t say anything stupid or incriminating and get yourself banned again.
Guess I have to do some explaining to you as well.
FYI
Qatar never directly ordered the Max 8.
They leased 9 from the cancelled S7 order from Air Lease.
So , nice try, but you see your error in judgement, the 25 cancelled orders were indeed the Max 10’s, not the 8’s.
Be good as always,and do send my best to Pedro.
CHEERS 🥂.
And do send your bogus link of Qatar directly ordering max 8 in 2014 😆
Dang, well put.
Hi Greg,
Easy to find on Wiki 😎
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_737_MAX_orders_and_deliveries
Nice to see your use of the wonderfully Antiquated wiki orders and deliveries site as your proof.
You know ,the same one that shows Iran Air A320 orders listed as current..😆😆.
Lame attempt at proving a point.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A320neo_family_orders_and_deliveries#Orders_and_deliveries_by_year
Here you go ..see for yourself.
Look forward to your denial that the Qatar max 10 order was cancelled months ago, but not showing up on the May orders and cancellations list next month .
CHEERS 🥂
US suspends engine sales to Chinese planemaker COMAC, New York Times reports
“Citing two people familiar with the matter, the New York Times said the move was in response to China’s recent restriction on exports of critical minerals to the U.S.
The newspaper said the department had suspended some licenses that allowed U.S. firms to sell products and technology to COMAC to develop its C919 aircraft, according to one person familiar with the matter.”
Interesting development…though not surprising.
China has — or is aquiring — alternatives for the US parts in the C919. On the other hand, the US has no alternative sources for the (quantitues of) rare earths that it needs.
***
So, the much-heralded trade truce didn’t last long, dit it?
Meanwhile:
“No Rebound in US/China Container Traffic”
“It’s been nearly two weeks since the China/US trade deal, but container traffic from China to the US hasn’t shown a strong rebound, see chart below.
“This raises the question: Are 30% tariffs on China still too high? Or are US companies simply waiting to see if tariffs will drop further before ramping up shipments?”
https://www.apolloacademy.com/no-rebound-in-us-china-container-traffic/
***
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/comac-aircraft-engines-united-states-suspend
If parts can’t be shipped to China for the C919 technology restrictions can one connect the dots and “assume” 737″ can’t be exported to China based on the same reason?
Seems it’s prepared and they have sufficient stocks for the time being. Will see who can hold their breath longer and who has a higher tolerance of pain. TACO.
Trump doubles steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%
Makes a easy decision for the auto makers, keep mfg. overseas So US industries has to subsidize the US steel/aluminum makers for not investing in new technology, processes and facilities for the the last 50 years!
“Steel prices have climbed 16% since Trump became president in mid-January, according to the government’s Producer Price Index.”
“As of March 2025, steel cost $984 a metric ton in the United States, significantly more than the price in Europe ($690) or China ($392), according to the U.S. Commerce Department.”
> The 2018 steel tariffs just called to remind you that steel is produced by a tiny sliver of the economy, but used as an input by a much broader swathe of manufacturers.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GsOvdnUWkAAzHlb?format=jpg&name=900×900
https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1928577991690322207
Sounds plausible:
> .. that was what help sink the machine tool buisness! Cost too much to keep companies operating, orders for new machinery plummeted! Did not create jobs but lost jobs.
> The 2018 steel tariffs had a net negative impact on the machine tool industry. While they aimed to bolster domestic steel production, the increased costs of steel & aluminum inputs raised production costs, reduced competitiveness, and contributed to job losses in the sector.
> Small machine shops were particularly hard-hit, facing higher material costs & supply chain disruptions without significant demand growth. Retaliatory tariffs further limited export opportunities, & the industry’s reliance on specialized steel imports exacerbated challenges.
> Although some domestic steelmakers saw temporary benefits, the downstream effects on machine tool manufacturers were largely detrimental, with estimated losses in jobs and production outweighing gains in the steel sector. Trump will destroy the industry!
https://x.com/JahnkeRobin/status/1928593473667510393
> Automakers warn the White House that “auto plants may have to idle in pandemic-style stoppages”
https://x.com/jimsciutto/status/1928785828135776758
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2025-06-01/china-rejects-trumps-accusation-that-it-breached-geneva-trade-deal
The complete Non Prosecution Agreement is now available in this post.
From the Status Report filed with the court last week, and linked in your original article:
“Other Family members continue to advocate for the Government to go to trial, consistent with feedback they have shared with the Government and the Court throughout this case. They are
opposed to any pre-trial resolution, and some made clear they intend to litigate a motion to dismiss”
From the link below:
““Any resolution that allows Boeing to walk away without an admission of guilt is a miscarriage of justice,” Erin Applebaum, a partner at Kreindler & Kreindler LLP, said in a statement. “We trust the court will see the agreement for what it is and reject the government’s efforts to let Boeing escape accountability for the deaths it caused.””
Of note:
“…the company will admit to the underlying accusation of “conspiracy to obstruct and impede the lawful operation of the Federal Aviation Administration Aircraft Evaluation Group,” but that admission does not constitute a guilty plea.”
https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/international/us-asks-judge-to-dismiss-criminal-charge-over-boeing-737-max-crashes/
+1
“$455 million to strengthen the company’s compliance,safety and quality problems”
This is amazing,why hasn’t anyone noticed this?
It’s just what they should be doing anyway, and failure to do it was the cause of death of the psssengers.
Were it not for this ruling they were going to spend the money on share buybacks?
Boeing Announces Plans For New 737 MAX 10 Production Line In Everett
article has Everett plant layout with 737-10
https://simpleflying.com/boeing-plans-new-737-max-10-production-line-everett/