Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
There's more to real news than a news release.
Open Forum, Week of March 16
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“China argues US ‘abusing’ Section 301 again”
wonder how that’s Boeing order is coming along?
Breaking: Trump delays China summit
Another big order for Boeing went up in smoke?
#########
Barclays estimates Boeing has delivered just 8 aircraft in March to date
Wonder if the primary problem at Boeing atm is this new
737 MAX wiring issue; the “small scratches”.
What the KPIs are telling Kelly and the FAA?
’Tis but a scratch? What! Just a flesh wound?
What about the slow deliveries for A320/321 recent months as rework is required for a fuselage panel not to spec ?
Darn you Duke, you would bring that up.
How Dare YOu!
AB is doing better…but nothing to get excited about.
So far in March:
12 A320/321neo
4 A220
5 A350
2 A330neo
From Planespotters this morning, BA had delivered the following frames so far in March:
5 MAX
6 787 (including one to LH yesterday)
1 777F (Emirates)
1 767 (USAF)
The MAX delivery dates were:
March 4 (3x)
March 12 (1x)
March 13 (1x)
So far in March…. hides the fact the total for Jan/February was seriously down
https://airinsight.com/airbus-delivers-only-35-aircraft-in-february/
PEDRO [edited] wrote.
Barclays estimates Boeing has delivered just 8 aircraft in March to date
The full text of the article says Boeing has delivered 30 more airplanes than Airbus this quarter, surmises that the drop in March numbers may be due to scratched 737 wiring BUT EVEN MORE INTERESTINGLY says that Barclays doesn’t follow Boeing and merely note these things in context to its Airbus coverage.
Where is your analysis on Why AIRBUS CAN’T KEEP UP WITH BOEING this quarter?
[Edited]
Here’s the text and source so everybody can see it.
Investing.com – Airbus has delivered 75 aircraft in the first quarter of 2026 through March, according to estimates from Barclays. The European plane maker delivered 21 aircraft in March so far, including 5 A220, 4 A320, 7 A321, 2 A330 and 3 A350 aircraft.
The quarter-to-date deliveries include 16 A220, 13 A320, 38 A321, 2 A330 and 6 A350 aircraft. The A321 model accounted for the largest share of deliveries during the period.
Boeing has delivered just 8 aircraft in March to date, bringing its quarter-to-date deliveries to 105 units, Barclays said. The firm does not cover Boeing.
Boeing’s March delivery tally is impacted by wiring defects identified on approximately 25 737 MAX aircraft. The issue involves scratches on electrical wiring bundles resulting from a machining error.
Barclays released the delivery estimates as part of its coverage of Airbus.
https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/airbus-delivers-75-aircraft-in-q1-amid-boeing-woes-barclays-93CH-4562462
Oops:
“Barclays covers The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA), with analyst David E. Strauss leading coverage of the Industrials sector, including Boeing, GE Aerospace, and others.
“As of early 2025, Barclays holds a generally positive view of Boeing, having upgraded the stock and maintained a bullish stance.
“There are conflicting, AI-generated snippets from March 2026 suggesting “The firm does not cover Boeing”. However, the consistent analyst ratings from David E. Strauss through late 2025 confirm coverage by the firm.”
Abalone.
You apparently glossed over my point. Does Pedro, or you for that matter have any explanation why Boeing has produced 30 more aircraft so far this quarter than Airbus. The cherrypicking of contents in articles is astounding, Its almost like there is a SINGLE PRODUCT CRITIC in our midst.
Nice of you to point out the error on the Barclays coverage, I hadn’t noticed that until you mentioned it.
What is your opinion of Boeing having produced 30 more aircraft than Airbus this quarter so far, even with the 737 line paused, Boeing is up 30 this quarter. Id love to hear your perspective on that.
Silence of the Lamb.
Just like when Airbus mucks up software on thousands of aircraft and panels not to spec.
Also they will not replace those non spec panels if their (ahem) new calcs say they are fine (not that I don’t wonder about that, don’t like what you got? Change the spec don’t fix it.
“Atlas Air orders 20 Airbus A350F freighters”
“Atlas Air Worldwide has ordered 20 Airbus A350F freighters, a deal that makes the US cargo operator the largest customer for Airbus’ next-generation freighter and gives it early delivery slots for the type. Airbus announced the agreement on March 16, 2026, calling Atlas the biggest A350F customer to date.
“Atlas said the order also includes options for 20 more aircraft. Deliveries of the firm-order jets are expected to start in 2029 and run through 2034, giving the New York-based group a new widebody freighter platform as it prepares for the retirement of older cargo aircraft across the market.
“Michael Steen, chief executive of Atlas Air Worldwide, said the company was securing early positions for what it sees as a next-generation freighter, adding that the move fits its strategy of keeping a modern and fuel-efficient widebody fleet.”
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/atlas-air-orders-20-airbus-a350f-freighters
Abalone
Great news for the freighter community. I expect the A350F to be a very capable airframe. The A350 potato chip panel method of build is clearly better than the 787s circumferential barrels. Panelization of the fuselage sections is one of the few 2nd mover advantages that second to market competitors get by looking at 1st mover complications. The 787 guys designed themselves intoa
corner. The A350 learned a lot of what not to do from the 787. Some of us call 787s tupperware turds
For those Tupperware nurds…what are your thoughts on Chinese supplier of the C929 rear mid fuselage section for bidding tender for “Automated Production Line for Composite Material Flooring” Anything that sticks out as different than the other two guys?
“The automated production line for composite flooring is used for the automated production of composite flooring parts for civil aircraft. It consists of a raw material automated warehouse, a cutting machine, a three-coordinate milling machine for composite sandwich panels, an adhesive injection and edge banding machine, an automated edge banding buffer device, an automatic installation and adhesive injection machine for inlays, an automated adhesive injection buffer device for inlays, a tunnel drying oven, an automatic grinding equipment, an automatic testing instrument, a coding device, an automatic packaging and boxing equipment, a finished product automated warehouse, a gantry robot, a roller conveyor line, and a control system. It can realize the functions of automatic flow of flooring parts, cutting, CNC machining (including drilling, edge cutting, and side groove milling), automatic testing, edge banding, installation of inlays and adhesive injection, coding, weighing and packaging, and produce qualified composite flooring parts.”
HI Dave.
Looking at the description of the assembly and manufacturing xomponenrs you listed. I can envision an automated line banging out a lot of product. This is not a lot different than Boeing other than at last look boeing was still using aluminum faced flooboard assys in the aisles. But then again its been a while since Ive been in the panel shops and things can(and should) change.
@PNWgeek:
I am in no position to say which is better.
I would put it into a
1. Boeing is more tech intensives and pays the higher costs there
2. Airbus incurs more labor in hand build and costs but avoids the high tech and cost of spun end.
Its not the first mover though.
Starship did the assembled by hand method a long time ago and Airbus copied that (they had no choice, they had no other tech as they were caught with their gear down).
Starship build was viable and Airbus copy is viable. I have not seen which costs less (if either). Labor is not a slam dunk as it is skilled labor to do the frame and panel (I think of it more as Lincoln Logs, Erector Assembly (loved those) or Legos that I never had but did have a better system that did not survive the ravages of time when I was like 7) – very cool build system of somewhat Lego like, from Japan.
Reality check:
Airbus inaugurates new A320 structure assembly line in Hamburg
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rUAPHLWOSvI
What’s the equivalent at Renton?
What do I see over there after going through the following report? Overworked, under-trained, chaos.
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/on-boeings-factory-floor-workers-feel-overmanaged-and-undersupported/
Trans
What sort of “tech intensive” workshop looks like this?
From the link I posted above:
‘But despite Boeing leaders’ pledges, workers say the problems have permeated its factories for decades.
“Biggest lingering problem”
When the Everett flight line worker clocked in at 10 p.m., starting Boeing’s third shift, there was often a “garage full” of airplane parts.
But, Boeing’s digital record-keeping system showed only two or three entries matching the parts lying around, the worker told the Times.
No record had been made for some pieces taken off the plane, the worker said. Without that, there’s confusion about what jobs still need to be done – or done again.’
Another customer defects. Heard so many times customers would stick around, because sunk costs, additional training involved, risks of adopting a new platform, etc. But the decision by an experienced operator worth much more. Actions speak louder than words.
AirCargonews:
> Atlas Air Worldwide chief executive Michael Steen highlighted the current age of the global widebody freighter fleet, an issue he has highlighted in the past.
It takes just a minute to compare specifications of the A350F (volume, OEW, payload-range) to other heavy lifters to realize this is a very strong contender.
It’s 6 m longer than a A350-900 & lifts 111t weighing 129t dry.
Almost all long haul carriers ordered A350’s (cockpit & MRO commonality).
Winner.
Plus…the underlying program (A350-900/1000) is actually certified and flying!
Now there’s a boon 😉
+1
Check the latest news from Boeing’s Mr. Malave,
re the 777-X. I’m still thinking 2030- if then.
Yep- a winner. Plus it’s not made of Unobtanium, unlike the other guys’ offering.
Vincent.
Unobtanium???
Im curious what you mean here??
Borh aircraft, the A350 and the trip7x use basically the same stuff. I must be missing something…….
The A350F will be available long before its heavier, aluminum-hulled competitor.
I still wait for an A350F order from Cargolux.
Cargolux will have to wait a bit longer for its new freighters:
EIS for the 777-8F has a goal of 2029, but some customers already believe this won’t happen until 2030 per LNA
“US airports ask for donations for unpaid TSA staff amid partial government shutdown”
“A rising number of US airports are asking for donations to support employees affected by the partial government shutdown with airport security officials missing their first full paychecks Friday.
“Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employees have been working in airports around the US without pay since a shutdown began in February after Republicans and Democrats failed to reach a funding agreement. Democrats have since refused to support a bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security, the TSA’s parent agency, without first receiving guaranteed immigration enforcement reforms.
“Amid the shutdown, TSA workers have been faced with continuing to work at airports without pay or find other ways to make income.
“Some airports in response have started food pantries while others have requested community members donate small grocery and gasoline gift cards.
“Nonetheless, with some TSA workers not reporting for unpaid duty, lines at security checkpoints have intermittently grown long. For instance, at Miami international airport on Thursday, lines sporadically doubled the normal clearance time for security checkpoints.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/13/tsa-workers-pay-shutdown
👀
> UAE puts an indefinite ban on foreign airlines from operating out of the two airports in Dubai following Monday’s drone attack
Indian airline executives raise red flag saying UAE is protecting its flag carrier Emirates
Looks very positive!
AW: Stretched Airbus A220 Draws Interest From Air Canada, Azorra
> Earlier, key customers such as Air France, Delta Air Lines and Lufthansa have been pushing Airbus to launch the A220 stretch, which would likely feature around 180 seats in a single-class layout.
> Airbus has been discussing internally whether the larger -500 should feature the same range as the -300 (around 3,400 nm, or 3,900 mi.) or whether less—and how much less—would be acceptable. Historically, U.S. airlines have been interested in having transcontinental narrowbody range, a capability that European carriers do not need and do not want to pay for.
Good point. I looked into it further and longer routes and distances that are flown regularly or seasonally are
Seattle (SEA) to Washington Dulles (IAD): At 2,306 miles, this is one of Delta’s longest A220 routes, marketed as a coast-to-coast service.
New York (JFK) to Palm Springs (PSP): A seasonal transcontinental route (approx. 2,378 miles) scheduled to run between December and spring.
Atlanta (ATL) to Santa Barbara (SBA): A long-haul domestic route served by the A220-300.
Atlanta (ATL) to Seattle (SEA): One of the airline’s longest scheduled A220 flights at approximately 2,100 miles
Those are standard miles , so the longest route is around 2000 nm without any reserve allowances and of course passengers with baggage only and not the normal premium seat weights nor entertainment units.
Doesnt seem to be major issue with a shorter range A220-500 thats heavier as long as its closer to 2800-3000nm
Don’t miss the point:
The A220-500 has to play a different role than the A220-300!
5 or so extra seat rows for the -500 isnt going to change the role much
I still advocate for:
1) A simple stretch with the same wing and engine, and
2) A stretch beyond that with an additional row or two and an enhanced wing, also with possibly an engine option. Essentially a plane a bit less capable than an A321XLR with great economics that really challenges existing NB airplanes. This plane would serve as a bridge before both major manufacturers commit to totally new technology NB planes in the 2030s.
Reuters
“U.S. plane maker Boeing has asked suppliers to identify any impact to production caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, according to a message to suppliers seen by Reuters, as industry concerns rise that a longer conflict could further constrain aircraft production.”
“While the Middle East region is not considered a major manufacturing hub of components for new planes, suppliers like Strata in the United Arab Emirates make parts for Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner jet. Boeing, however, also sources parts like the vertical fin from other sites.”
Google AI
“Strata Manufacturing, based in the UAE, is a key Tier 1 supplier for Boeing, producing advanced composite parts for the 787 Dreamliner. They specialize in manufacturing 787 vertical fin ribs and, notably, the vertical fin assembly”
You forgot Airbus
Boeing: Strata is Boeing’s first direct composites supplier in the Middle East. It supplies primary structures including:
777/777X: Empennage ribs.
787 Dreamliner: Vertical fin ribs and full vertical fin assemblies.
Airbus: A long-term partner since 2010, Strata provides critical components such as:
A330/A330neo: Flap track fairings and ailerons (single-source supplier for aileron assemblies).
A350-900/1000: Flap support fairings and inboard flaps.
A320 Family: Recently expanded to supply 50% of Airbus’s global demand for A320 ailerons.
The trucks carrying assemblies can just go to Oman or Saudi Arabia for export further on
> … planemakers are also weighing the risk that the U.S. Trump administration could invoke the Defense Production Act to compel suppliers to accelerate output to support the conflict. If applied broadly, such a move could weigh on commercial aerospace, since many suppliers serve both defense and civilian programs.
#########
Don’t be misled:
> Under this new partnership, Strata will* supply 50% of Airbus demand for A320 family Aileron…
The agreement was signed a few months ago.
> Indian airlines have warned that… the war with Iran is weighing on their finances, as demand for travel to West Asia — one of the highest growth regions for Indian carriers — has depleted significantly, while costs are increasing…
PNWgeek
I remember you made a long post regarding BA’s delivery numbers last year. Do you still remember it?
This is what you posted:
> Delivery Variability Delta. **Delivery is controlled by the customer and not Boeing.** […]
There are a number of aircraft in varying but explainable situations where they cannot deliver. This is some of the hysteresis in the line and the part of the reason the delivery number of aircraft out of POST-PRODUCTION is variable. Boeing does not measure performance of Post-Production as it is not scheduled on bar charts or supplied by the Boeing MRP process. **Boeing reports PRODUCTION, that is measured when it leaves the assembly line and goes to a Post-Production Line Stall.**
https://leehamnews.com/2025/11/11/ups-md-11f-crash-theft-of-trade-secrets-lawsuit-impacts-on-cargo-market/#comment-553433
Just curious, do you apply a different yardstick to other airframers now?
Pedro.
No.
Now that I’ve answered your question, answer mine. Why did you use only the portion of the article saying Boeing delivered only 8 airplanes in March and point to the wiring faults. Is it a SINGLE PRODUCT CRITICISM tactic, because it sure looks that way to me. The article clearly pointed out that Boeing delivered 30 more aircraft than Airbus in the quarter, yet you focus on the only Boeing critical fact in the entire article. Why is that? I’d really like to know the thought process behind your parsing of data that continually finds Boeing faults and never becomes involved in any discussion of Airbus improvement opportunities even when presented with the opportunity to do so.
For how long?
> March 17 (Reuters) – The UAE’s General Civil Aviation Authority announced the temporary and full closure of the country’s airspace, as “an exceptional precautionary measure”, amid rapidly evolving regional security developments, the state news agency reported on Tuesday.
https://x.com/idreesali114/status/2033697033270251552
“Iran war shakes skies: Emirates jets fly back to Dubai nearly empty as travellers flee”
http://m.timesofindia.com/articleshow/129627506.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Demand destruction is here:
Bloomberg:
> Scandinavia’s biggest airline SAS AB has been forced to cut some flights after the Middle East war prompted a surge in the price of jet fuel. The airline has decided to make a “limited number of short-term flight cancellations,” it said by email. “The entire European aviation system is now feeling the pressure from a sudden fuel shock.”
#########
AW: Vietnam Warns Of Potential Fuel Shortage Following Export Curbs
> Vietnam’s aviation regulator has warned airlines to prepare for potential fuel supply disruptions from April. The Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam has issued an notice to carriers advising them to review network plans and secure airport slots in case of aircraft groundings.
Deutsche Bank analysts are predicting that thousands of aircraft worldwide may be grounded:
“Jet Fuel Prices Soar as War in Iran Ripples Through Global Aviation”
“Australia’s Qantas Airways, Scandinavia’s SAS, and Air New Zealand are three of the airlines to have already announced airfare hikes in response to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The airlines cited the abrupt spike in the cost of fuel driven by the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran as the reason for the move.
“Jet fuel prices rose from between $85 to $90 a barrel before the attack on Iran to as much as $150 to $200 a barrel this week. This has led several airlines to reconsider their financial outlooks for 2026, as the uncertainty makes it impossible to predict where the price of fossil fuels will go in the coming months.”
“Some airlines will be more affected than others by the increase in jet fuel prices. For example, several Asian and European airlines, such as Lufthansa and Ryanair, have oil hedging in place, meaning that a part of their fuel supplies is maintained at a fixed rate. However, some companies are concerned that even the hedged fuel reserves may be at risk.
““Absent near-term relief, **airlines around the world could be forced to ground thousands of aircraft** while some of the industry’s financially weakest carriers could halt operations,” Deutsche analysts were reported to have said in a note to clients.
“The uncertainty means that several airlines, across Asia, Europe, and North America, are seeing their shares plummet. Lorraine Tan, the director of equity research, Asia at Morningstar, stated, “The issue for the airlines now is that travel demand may be curtailed as costs become prohibitive for leisure travellers and as some companies start to limit business travel due to the uncertain outlook.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Jet-Fuel-Prices-Soar-as-War-in-Iran-Ripples-Through-Global-Aviation.html
“Top US counterterrorism official resigns over Iran war, urging Trump to ‘reverse course'”
“In a letter posted to his X account, National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent said that Iran posed “no imminent threat” to the US and claimed that the administration “started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby”.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg4g66r3z40o
===
“Why allies aren’t leaping to Trump’s aid in Strait of Hormuz”
“Leon Panetta, who served as U.S. secretary of defence and CIA director in the Obama administration, said Trump failed to lay the groundwork for an alliance that could help the U.S. against Iran when the going got tough.
“Now in many ways, he’s got a gun to his head because of rising oil prices and the damage that’s doing,” Panetta told CBC News Network on Monday. ”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-iran-allies-strait-hormuz-oil-shipping-9.7131218
PNWgeek
“… for that matter have any explanation why Boeing **has produced** 30 more aircraft so far this quarter than Airbus”
1. You previously said: “Delivery Variability Delta. **Delivery is controlled by the customer and not Boeing.**”
Is it still applicable? If not, explain why.
2. Don’t you remember: Production =/= deliveries?
This is the yardstick you used for Boeing:
“**Boeing reports PRODUCTION, that is measured when it leaves the assembly line and goes to a Post-Production Line Stall.**”
3. By what metric you used to assess production of AB vs. BA? Show me your proof. Thanks.
#########
The article clearly points out AB delivery is recovering:
Deliveries in March so far has reached 21 aircraft, over 250% of what BA is able to achieve. What a miracle!
Can’t believe you missed all of that.
PEDRO.
1) Boeing produced more aircraft than Airbus this quarter for any of a number of reasons, The reasons aren’t published, and I don’t make a habit of guessing. Airbus is scheduled to out produce Boeing and out deliver Boeing this year, I would expect that to be a regular occurrence based on Gross Numbers published.
2) Production is not equal to deliverys. The 737 line has paused delivery of aircraft, but the Production line has not stopped. This is clearly indicated in the Leeham Article dated Mar 17 2026, linked below. Note that he says the production cadence is unaffected…. You cannot catch up if the production line stops. Boeing is increasing the number of aircraft in Post Production and will work that quantity back down next quarter. This clearly shows the demarcation between the MRP based Production system and the Variability that can be introduced between Production and Post Production as issues slow deliveries. It’s really time to let Jay Malave, EVP and CFO of The Boeing Co try to show you a specific example of this fact of business.
https://leehamnews.com/2026/03/17/boeing-says-1q-deliveries-will-be-lower-than-forecast-but-will-catch-up-later/#more-49347
3) I don’t comment on Airbuses production system other than commenting on the work of other contributors. I’m a Boeing Master Schedule SME, not Airbus.
Now that your 3 questions are out of the way, let’s get back on point and address WHY PEDRO IS A SINGLE PRODUCT CRITIC.
We are 3 posts deep here and the cracks of your position are showing. this post is the first where you have even mentioned that Airbus is recovering. You say Airbus is recovering, that’s great news, but it’s also a tacit acknowledgement that they were previously in need of recovering from some deficiency. You never mentioned that. You never mentioned that Boeing delivered (from the article text I posted) 30 more aircraft so far in the first quarter than Airbus. You said that Boeing was out delivered by 250% in March by Airbus, thank God they are doing better because if they out delivered Boeing by 250% just in March, they must have been really constrained if they are STILL 30 aircraft behind in the count. But let’s give credit where its due, you did a great job of showing the narrow limits of your understanding of the Boeing production system where Production is MRP based and delivery is not, as I have explained many times, and you still cannot accept as fact. You are using an intentional misrepresentation of the Boeing Production System to DEFLEFT AWAY FROM SINGLE PRODUCT CRITICISM you level at your less preferred vendor. You even neglect to use the reply button to group this thread together because it clearly shows I answer your questions and you deflect away from mine.
Answer my questions you continually deflect away from. Why do you selectively pull only Boeing critical aspects of reporting for repost on this forum. Still waiting for your answer and try to use the reply button……….
PEDRO WROTE
2. Don’t you remember: Production =/= deliveries?
This is the yardstick you used for Boeing:
“**Boeing reports PRODUCTION, that is measured when it leaves the assembly line and goes to a Post-Production Line Stall.**
This is EXACTLY TRUE. In Fact Leeham just wrote an article about all the hundreds of 737s Boeing Produced that ended up sitting in a parking lot in POST production and the Change incorporation Process necessary to reconfigure the aircraft for their ultimate customers. Clearly they produced a few hundred aircraft and didn’t deliver them immediately. This shows in stark clarity that Production is not necessarily equal to deliveries. This is a great article, hope you can see it
https://leehamnews.com/2026/03/18/change-incorporation-configuration-control-and-the-high-cost-of-getting-it-wrong/
PNWgeek
Contrary to what you insisted otherwise, BA CFO today confirmed that the 737 MAX scratched wiring defect is traced to a miscalibrated machine at a **Boeing facility**, not external suppliers.
Exploding A350s anyone?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqmz7unq5GU
Not intended as a comment about fighters — instead, a comment about the abilities of the Chinese to perform impressive production ramp-ups.
Waiting to see how quickly C919 production will increase once the CJ-1000A engine is ready, ridding the program of the effects of geopolitical trickstering.
“China surges production capacity for J-20 and J-35 stealth fighters”
“Commercial satellite imagery shows that China’s state-owned aviation company has dramatically expanded manufacturing facilities for military aircraft, including the fifth-generation J-20 fighter, with total fighter production capacity set to reach 300-400 units annually.”
https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing/china-surges-production-capacity-for-j-20-and-j-35-stealth-fighters/166676.article
At this rate, China will be able to rapidly supply its friends in the Middle East with advanced capabilities.
“Waiting to see how quickly C919 production”
Like other global aircraft programs…its CJ1000 engine driven Otherwise back in early 2025 Xian put out information tender about expanding the C919 wing line with “duplicate” style (domestic supplier) with productivity improvements (current Wing FAL can do 4 a month rate) Best information as of today, they still haven’t formal tendered and awarded a contract for C919 wing line expansion
My current research finds the following…machines tools cutting, milling …China has many domestic suppliers, robotic drilling several domestic suppliers, ATL and AFP machines they have domestic suppliers but still only used military program not have transition to commercial side yet (no national champion for commercial aircraft production). Automatic drilling and riveting systems, several domestic producers (private companies, universities and AVIC research organizations) that work on military programs but no clear national champion to replace western suppliers (e.g. Brotje Automation can do some it) As for moving FALs, they have developed technology along with digital twins by using military programs like the Xian Y-20 cargo
As for composite material for commercial aircraft, they are building their own new factory ($127m) which will be ready in 2027 that will produce 80% of the aircraft industry requirements
The C919 wing production/tooling was comprised of Electroimpact and Gemcor equipment (they are not selling to China anymore) see link for Electroimpact Xian C919 wing assembly https://www.electroimpact.com/assemblysolutions
So import substitution strategy along with Russia leaving the CR929 program for the wings (note in 2023 first CR929 center wing box was built and was in testing) has slowed the ramp up of production of the C919 and development of C929 programs
PNWgeek
Apparently you failed to respond to my first question, to substantiate your claim that: “Boeing **has produced** 30 more aircraft so far this quarter than Airbus”. Please provide your proof with independently verifiable info. Thanks. I’m waiting.
US $3.99/gal gas (petroleum)
Hard(er) time for airlines is coming as consumers have to pay more for gas.
PEDRO.
It must be exceedingly difficult to maintain YOUR SINGLE PRODUCT CRITICS ROLE in this forum. You ask for independently verifiable proof that Boeing outproduced Airbus so far this quarter. LETS USE YOUR REPORTING. Since this is all about how yoi cjerey pick stuff.
YOU POSTED that Boeing only delivered 8 aircraft so far in March. That article also said that Boeing out delivered Airbus in this timeframe by 30 aircraft. You ask for specific proof that Boeing PRODUCED 30 aircraft more than Airbus in the reported timeframe. You sir are argumentative beyond belief because you cannot deliver that which you have not produced.
NOW lets address the larger unanswered question here. Explain why you repeatesly cherey pick only negative Boeing reporting. There are now multiple examples that you have sone eberything to DEFLECT away from.
Im sure it would make great reading, but I expext to die of old age before seeing the truth from you in this regard.
Just in:
AW: AerCap Places Its Largest-Ever Order For Neo Aircraft
ABALONE.
You are correct. Fighter jets aside, China is advancing towards building Big Jets at rate. There are challenges along the way. Some of these challenges are significant. Those who think Comac will not become a significant player in the industry are reading the wrong tea leaves.
Interesting view from Richard Aboulafia Testimony in February 6 2025 on China’s commercial aircraft industry with “Testimony before the US China Economic and Security Review Commission Made in China 2025-Who is Winning?” see link below
“page 15 of the pdf is interesting (4th paragraph)..political ill would create China favoring European suppliers and accelerate the domestic supplier ecosystem”
Well that is already happening and is no turning back to the US for the Chinese Overall, the report is a good summary of events over the past 35 years…interesting read
https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2025-02/Richard_Aboulafia_Testimony.pdf
Well written history and analysis of China’s industrial capacity for airliner building. Bottom line is that they are no different than the rest of the world with respect to building an aerospace industry. It’s a global business and no single country or regional group can do it successfully on their own.
He also shows how complex airline manufacturing is and how important it is to have mature systems.
Finally he points out the absolute necessity for after sales support for aerospace products. Customers just won’t buy your product unless there is very deep and highly responsive support available. China’s airliner industry will not have significant international sales until they have global support in place.
Russia’s SuperJet is/was a good example. The plane had considerable market potential, but poor support. Airlines needed to build their own support and that proved to be prohibitively expensive. Lack of spares meant they needed a a subfleet of ‘backup’ aircraft.
PNWgeek
You have said, and I quote: “Production =/= deliveries”. So it’s difficult for me to follow your logic using delivery numbers as the number of aircraft produced in that same period to prove of your claim that BA outproduced AB by 30 aircraft this year.
May be someone like Scott can explain to us how it makes sense. I rest my case since what you said above doesn’t make any sense.
It’s not that I’m a single product critics as much as others as a single product defender but fail to provide the necessary proof to substantiate their claim.
In other words, You can’t provide any proof so your claim isn’t valid.
@PNW and @Pedro: I’ve had enough of this back and forth. Drop it.
Hamilton
Granted I am sticking my head into the meat grinder, but then as my wife says, you are not always smart (I blame my mother who was fearless if not always right! – she could have given Don Quote lessons)
I have had disagreements with PNWgeek, but he is polite, follows the posting rules better than I do. (Hat dip to him).
So, some solid and some I have no business telling you, , so take it as a recommendation and not telling you how to run your show. Sometimes the best of us are helped by stepping back and thinking about an assessment.
This could not be more factual, the numbers do not lie. You have one person putting out false numbers and another politely correcting that.
The person putting out the false number should be the one brought up short.
You have the data, there is no ambiguity to this (unless the Sun ow rises in the West?)
You have some good commentators, they should be encouraged. The risk is it devolves into all vents and driving good people away.
The venues to be able to discuss aviation in a general way are very few. This is the only one I know of like it. I value it highly.
If someone is blatantly not being factual they are the ones who should be called up short.
Disagreeing what the facts mean is one thing, false hoods on clear fact is another.
“Airbus raises stakes in engine dispute with Pratt & Whitney: Reuters”
“Aircraft manufacturer Airbus is seeking damages against US engine maker Pratt & Whitney over delivery delays hampering production, according to Reuters.
“The move follows a series of public comments by Airbus representatives that revealed a growing frustration with Pratt & Whitney and its parent company RTX.
“According to Reuters, news of Airbus’ pursuit of damages came from sources that were familiar with developments.”
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/airbus-raises-stakes-in-engine-dispute-with-pratt-whitney
What an inspiring marriage that has turned into…🙈
any Collaborative Development Platform (CDP) specialists out there? what is Comac gaining with these collaborative functions
New tender from Xian Aircraft (e.g. C919 wing and center fuselage section and will be the C929 wing center)
Adaptive Transformation of Design-Manufacturing Collaborative Functions.
2.4 Project Overview: Based on the client’s existing collaborative design and manufacturing platform, upgrade and transform modules such as design data reception, technical status management, engineering change implementation, process planning and design, on-site document interaction, manufacturing data correlation feedback and statistical export. Migrate the design, process, quality and other data related to the C919 model from the original civil aircraft collaborative development platform to the collaborative design and manufacturing platform to enable the viewing and reuse of existing historical data, ensuring data consistency and continuity while guaranteeing high-quality and efficient production of the C919 model.
as a side note from 2022 news article “The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China’s top industry regulator, said it has granted China’s first corporate 5G private network license for COMAC to use industrial wireless dedicated frequency bands 5925-6125MHz and 24.750-25.15GHz, which feature high speed, fast connections and low latency.”
Thanks to yesterday’s US/Israeli attacks on Iran’s South Pars gas field, and the ensuing Iranian retaliation against Qatari gas installations, we now have 3-5 years of elevated fuel prices to look forward to:
“Iran attacks cut 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to 5 years: QatarEnergy”
“Iranian attacks on Qatar have wiped out 17 percent of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, causing an estimated $20bn in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia, QatarEnergy’s CEO says.
“Saad al-Kaabi told the Reuters news agency on Thursday that two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains, the equipment used to liquefy natural gas, and one of its two gas-to-liquids facilities were damaged in Iranian strikes this week.
“The repairs will sideline 12.8 million tonnes of LNG production per year for three to five years, he said.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/19/iran-attacks-cut-17-of-qatars-lng-capacity-for-up-to-5-years-qatarenergy
So, this one hit is going to cost Qatar a cumulative $60-100B in revenue.
San Luis Obispo Tribune: ‘Nearly $9 for a gallon? See where gas prices are highest in California’:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/nearly-9-for-a-gallon-see-where-gas-prices-are-highest-in-california/ar-AA1YYTsF
$166 a barrel? Middle East oil gives clue to where all prices could be headed if Iran war drags on
> Dubai crude oil prices surpassed $166 a barrel to a new record high on Thursday, according to market data provider Platts.
> “If the Strait does not reopen, this divergence is unlikely to persist,” Kaneva said in a note to clients this week. “Brent and WTI will ultimately reprice higher as Atlantic basin inventories are drawn down and the global market is forced to clear at a materially tighter supply level.”
> More broadly, analysts said that higher costs for oil and transportation as a result of the Strait’s prolonged closure will lead to sticker shock for consumers. In addition to drivers feeling pressure at the gas pump, rising fuel costs for trucks and ships can also be passed down to shoppers.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/19/166-a-barrel-middle-east-oil-gives-clue-to-where-all-prices-could-be-headed-if-iran-war-drags-on.html
“$200 Oil No Longer Crazy Idea as Middle East Supply Collapses”
“Middle East oil exports and production have collapsed, removing over 7–10 million bpd from global supply and creating a severe physical shortage.
“Tight supply and limited storage mean prices could surge to $150–$200+ per barrel, with some analysts warning of extreme spikes if disruptions persist.
“Even if the conflict ends, recovery will be slow, and temporary relief won’t fully offset the shortage, keeping prices elevated.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/200-Oil-No-Longer-Crazy-Idea-as-Middle-East-Supply-Collapses.html
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Before close of trading on Wall Street yesterday, we got a “NACO” (in addition to many earlier attempts at a TACO), with some very sheepish comments from Israel:
“Sentiment in markets then shifted as Netanyahu said that joint U.S.-Israel strikes had significantly degraded Iran’s strategic capabilities and that the war would “end faster than people think.”
“Crucially for oil markets, Netanyahu also emphasized that the campaign would not be open-ended and indicated that Israel would refrain from further attacks on Iran’s South Pars gas field at the request of President Trump. The move helped ease immediate concerns about further escalation targeting critical energy infrastructure.”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Slide-as-Netanyahu-Signals-Iran-War-Could-End-Soon.html
However, the damage to energy markets is now done, and it will take years to undo. And the Strait remains closed until Iran decides to change its policy.
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Meanwhile:
“Iran Negotiates Strait Passage for Yuan-Traded Oil with 8 Countries”
“Iran is negotiating with eight countries to allow passage through the Strait of Hormuz on the condition that oil is traded in Chinese yuan, CNN reported on the 17th. Following reports that these countries are considering a plan to permit ships from nations trading oil in yuan to pass through the strait, they are said to have contacted Iran to seek an agreement.”
“While it remains unconfirmed whether these measures are directly due to yuan-based transactions, ships from countries like Pakistan and India have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian government control. These vessels navigated close to Iran’s coastline through the strait, a route rarely used by foreign ships under normal circumstances.”
“Natasha Kaneva, an analyst at JP Morgan, remarked, “This situation has created a strait control system dependent on political agreements with Iran.””
https://www.chosun.com/english/world-en/2026/03/18/YQDQXG4PB5BCVNUI3C5SX3XFR4/
Google AI
“Pakistan actively uses the Chinese yuan (CNY) for trade and investment, including a 30-billion-yuan swap line with China and plans for yuan-denominated bonds. India, however, has not institutionalized yuan usage; while private refiners have used it for transactions (such as Russian oil), state buyers have paused its use due to high-level discomfort”
“International trade transactions in Chinese Yuan (RMB) avoid U.S. control primarily by bypassing the U.S. dollar-based SWIFT system, instead using China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS)”
The CBC had a good analysis of the issues around control of the Stair of Hormuz. The essence of the problem is that the geography allows Iran to maintain control with extremely low levels of effort. A handful of smart mines and small boats can effectively control it all. Highly mobile rockets which can be launched from anywhere in Iran can target individual ships. No great navy or air force is needed. Iran can keep control indefinitely. They have nothing to lose.
Basically, there is no military solution for the US at this point. It’s gotta be dipomatic.
The damage is done as far as the long term effect on the airline industry. The ME3 are down for the count. Only the fact that they have almost unlimited sovereign support will keep them in business. The rest of the airline industry will be severely challenged. This is a far bigger debacle than the Iraq/Afghan wars.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/qrM8QKGF538
Dont rely on those app user generated prices.
Users put in the price – which many other similar type of apps use elsewhere – some users are faking it and its not even near the price .
The purpose is a mix of online trolling and locals putting in a high price to keep others away so more fuel remains tanks
Northern California gas station didn’t charge $9 for gas
https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-138147857501
video from CNBC
Airbus CFO: Supply chain improved, one supplier struggling to deliver
Rate supply-single aisle for 75 per month in 2027
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/19/airbus-cfo-supply-chain-improved-one-supplier-struggling.html
FG: Airbus confirms feasibility of 100-seat ZEROe hydrogen fuel cell aircraft concept
There is some confusion online about the A380 used as flying test bed with a engine attached to a pylon on rear upper fuselage
Some say the cryogenic hydrogen is tuned into a gaseous form for turbo prop engine power and yet the latest information is that its a hydrogen fuel cell which creates electricity for the motor to drive the propeller .
That creates a thermal tax For every megawatt of electricity generated, fuel cells produce between 0.4 MW and 0.6 MW of waste heat.
Reuters: Airbus Seeks Pratt & Whitney Damages Over Engine Delays, Sources Say
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-03-19/exclusive-airbus-seeks-pratt-whitney-damages-over-engine-delays-sources-say
Reuters Mar 5:
> The U.S. and Israeli air war against Iran has grounded passenger and freighter flights across the region, including in Doha and Dubai, two of the world’s largest cargo hubs.
That has led to a 22% reduction in global air cargo capacity, according to data from aviation and logistics consulting firm Aevean.
> Middle East-based carriers account for about 13% of global air cargo capacity and Qatar Airways is the world’s second-largest freight carrier after FedEx, according to IATA.
Times (of London)
> Airlines have been warned that they will face jet fuel shortages as soon as next month, risking flight cancellations to long-haul destinations at the end of the busy Easter holiday period.
Wow
Fuel stations run out of diesel across Australia’s NSW
SMH AU
Eighty NSW petrol stations without diesel as price passes $3 a litre
> Premier Chris Minns says the effects of limited fuel supplies are being felt across NSW, and about 80 petrol stations were without diesel on Thursday as the cost passed $3 a litre in parts of the state.
The average price of petrol rose 5¢ a litre in 24 hours to $2.38 in Sydney. Minns said independent retailers were especially afflicted by issues accessing regular supply. In Broken Hill, diesel reached 305.9¢ a litre on Thursday afternoon, while Tibooburra in the far north-west recorded 315.9¢.
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CNN: War with Iran could weaken the US economy more than expected, key Fed official says
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Remember this? Proofs are coming fast
From a research scholar research in ColumbiaUEnergy:
>> In the medium term, the war will likely accelerate global demand for Chinese batteries, solar panels and more.
> WOW. Just in the last two weeks, BYD showrooms around the world are seeing a surge in customer demand from people who are deciding that now is the time to switch to EVS, with oil prices so high.
https://
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
2026-03-19/byd-showrooms-are-bustling-across-asia-after-iran-oil-shock
Bloomberg: Asian Consumers Turn to EVs Amid Iran Oil Shock
>>> Perfect timing for all the American car companies that bascially threw in the towel on EVs.
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Bullish!
> Here is something I had not realized. Functionally, the US’ strategic petroleum reserve may have less capacity than the stated figures.
Should stocks fall below a certain threshold, it could damage the structural integrity of the actual storage facility.
FT report:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HD3WAiHbAAIE1B4?format=jpg&name=900×900
The cupboard is bare and the Emperor wears no cloths
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> It was already going to be a tough year for housing without war/oil/rates jumping, so all these things hitting at the pivotal spring selling season for homebuilders essentially wiped out any hope for rebound in spring 2026.
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March 20 (Reuters) – Rising gasoline prices are already starting to bite U.S. household finances and Americans overwhelmingly expect fuel costs will keep climbing as President Donald Trump’s war with Iran crimps global oil supplies, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
Some 55% of respondents in the Tuesday-through-Thursday poll said their household finances had taken at least “somewhat” of a hit from the increases in gas prices. Among those seeing an impact, 21% said their finances were affected “a great deal.”
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HD27jvxXYAAwLCT?format=jpg&name=large
NTSB:
> The NTSB is investigating a close call at Newark Liberty Airport on March 17 in which an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 overflew a FedEx Boeing 777 while both jets were attempting to land on crossing runways.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HDzVWyJaQAA86FL?format=jpg&name=large
Tennis Anyone!
Watch the video below titled “China Unveils the World’s First Humanoid Tennis Robot”. The capability is not driven by pre-programmed motions but is autonomously acquired through deep reinforcement learning, marking the world’s first realization of high-dynamic tennis rallying through a humanoid robot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfS1UvJb_D0
So give this 5 to 10 years, humanoid robots will help build Chinese commercial aircraft!
FG
P&WC details hybridisation plan for PW127 engine that could power ATR Evo
The CBC had a good analysis of the issues around control of the Stair of Hormuz. The essence of the problem is that the geography allows Iran to maintain control with extremely low levels of effort. A handful of smart mines and small boats can effectively control it all. Highly mobile rockets which can be launched from anywhere in Iran can target individual ships. No great navy or air force is needed. Iran can keep control indefinitely. They have nothing to lose.
Basically, there is no military solution for the US at this point. It’s gotta be diplomatic.
The damage is done as far as the long term effect on the airline industry. The ME3 are down for the count. Only the fact that they have almost unlimited sovereign support will keep them in business. The rest of the airline industry will be severely challenged. This is a far bigger debacle than the Iraq/Afghan wars.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/qrM8QKGF538
What you write about the Strait of Hormuz was already well known before the US and Israel started this war — so the current mess is no surprise whatsoever.
Here’s something else that’s well known:
“Oman claims Israel pushed US into Iran war when deal was possible”
“Oman’s foreign minister has claimed the US has “lost control of its own foreign policy” and accused Israel of persuading Donald Trump’s administration to go to war with Iran – a conflict he described as a “catastrophe” and a “grave miscalculation”.
“Writing in the Economist, Badr Albusaidi, the Omani minister who mediated the latest nuclear talks between Iran and the US, offered an unusually damning assessment of events leading up to the US and Israel’s bombing of Iran and the war it has triggered across the Middle East.”
“According to Albusaidi, Iran and the US had been on the “verge of a real deal” in nuclear negotiations held in Geneva in February, describing the talks as “substantive”.
“As revealed by the Guardian this week, a similar assessment had been made by the UK’s national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, who attended the final stages of the nuclear talks. According to sources, he had been surprised at the significant progress towards a permanent, substantive nuclear deal and judged that it was enough to halt a war between the two sides.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/19/us-lost-control-of-its-own-foreign-policy-oman-foreign-minister
> UK security adviser ‘attended’ US-Iran talks and judged deal was within reach
Exclusive: Jonathan Powell thought Tehran’s ‘surprising’ offer on its nuclear programme could prevent rush to war, sources say
Britain’s national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, attended the final talks between the US and Iran and judged that the offer made by Tehran on its nuclear programme was significant enough to prevent a rush to war, the Guardian can reveal.
Powell thought progress had been made in Geneva in late February and that the deal proposed by Iran was “surprising”, according to sources.
Two days after the talks ended, and after a date had been agreed for a further round of technical talks in Vienna, the US and Israel launched the attack on Iran.
Powell’s presence at the talks, and his close knowledge of how they were progressing, was confirmed by three sources.
One source said he was in the building at Oman’s ambassadorial residence in Cologny, Geneva, acting as an adviser, reflecting widespread concern about the US expertise on the talks represented by Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy on several issues.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/uk-security-adviser-attended-us-iran-talks-and-judged-deal-was-within-reach
“Airbus starts assembly of 2nd test A350F”
“Airbus has begun assembling the second A350F to be used for the program’s flight test campaign as the manufacturer targets certification and entry into service in the second half of 2027. The aircraft (701) is having its fuselage joined in Toulouse (TLS) and will move into Station 40 for final assembly this month…”
https://cargofacts.com/allposts/freighter-aircraft/airbus-starts-assembly-of-2nd-test-a350f/
===
On the other hand:
“Boeing’s 777-8F Freighter Entry Set for 2029 Following Delay of 777-9 Passenger Jet”
https://blog.gettransport.com/fr/news/boeing-777x-freighter-delay-2029/
…and that was before the recently-revealed GE9X wear issues.
More are coming?
> United CEO Scott Kirby says the airline is prepping for oil to hit $175/barrel & “doesn’t get back down to $100/barrel until the end of 2027.”
> United plans to reduce short-term flying by about 5%
Richard Aboulafia’s testimony is a well written history and analysis of China’s industrial capacity for aerospace design and manufacture. Bottom line is that they are no different than the rest of the world with respect to building an aerospace industry. It’s a global business and no single country or regional group can do it successfully on their own.
He also shows how complex airline manufacturing is and how important it is to have mature systems.
Finally he points out the absolute necessity for after sales support for aerospace products. Customers just won’t buy your product unless there is very deep and highly responsive support available. China’s airliner industry will not have significant international sales until they have global support in place.
Russia’s SuperJet is/was a good example. The plane had considerable market potential, but poor support. Airlines needed to build their own support and that proved to be prohibitively expensive. Lack of spares meant they needed a a subfleet of ‘backup’ aircraft.
> “A recent internal assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency that was circulating inside the Pentagon in recent weeks determined that Iran could potentially keep the passage shut for anywhere from one to six months, four sources familiar with the document told CNN.”
What’s the plan now? Too bad the POTUS started a war without any plans.
“Iran war wipes more than $50bn off value of world’s biggest airlines”
“The world’s 20 largest publicly listed airlines have lost about $53bn in value since the US-Israel war on Iran began in February, The Financial Times reports.
“The UK newspaper said the airline industry is in the grip of its worst crisis since the COVID-19 pandemic, as the war has disrupted the Gulf’s hub airports and grounded flights.
“The report also said that airline executives are sounding the alarm of possible fuel shortages as the war heads into its fourth week.
“Jet fuel, which accounts for a third of airlines’ costs, has doubled since the war began on February 28, raising the possibility of an increase in airline tickets, the report added.”
https://aje.news/ohi6b8?update=4423824
For a minute, imagine an alternate universe where governments have heavily incentifivized both production and adoption (including *consistent* mandatory measures) of SAF
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‘Really significant’: analysts warn top fuel suppliers could cut exports to Australia
> Energy minister says he is not aware of any cuts to imports from Malaysia, but expert says warnings are ‘really significant’
> Morrison said there was an obvious risk that major suppliers in the region, including Australia’s biggest supplier South Korea, will also prioritise domestic use over selling to Australia.
“South Korea, Japan and India are all very vulnerable. They hardly produce any oil so they are all very dependent on oil imports,” he said.
“If they are facing the situation where crude oil supplies are declining and there’s no sign of the conflict ending, obviously they would prioritise their domestic markets over exports.”
> The New South Wales premier, Chris Minns, said on Friday that at least 107 petrol stations in his state did not have any diesel, while 42 have no fuel at all, out of approximately 3,000 stations statewide. The Daily Telegraph reported the NSW government was “war gaming” a fuel rationing system, but Minns has been reluctant to discuss contingency plans publicly.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/20/fuel-crisis-prices-some-petrol-gas-stations-running-low-supplier-malaysia
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“Under current consumption cover metrics, current stocks are around 29-36 days (**counting tankers at sea**).”
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Remember “the good, old days”?
Australia last rationed fuel in the 1970s. Could we do it again?
As oil prices skyrocket, analysts believe the disruption to the global supply will last months, not weeks. So what other options are there?
> Just when most of us had managed to put the pandemic behind us, along comes another global crisis sending prices higher and threatening to change the way we live and work.
The US-Israel war on Iran has unleashed a global energy shock that has sent global oil prices soaring and triggered a spike in fuel costs.
With daily reports of petrol stations running out of fuel as Australians rush to fill up amid fears of shortages, there has even been talk that governments could be forced to take even more drastic action: fuel rationing.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/22/australia-last-rationed-fuel-in-the-1970s-could-we-do-it-again
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Jet Fuel Crisis Accelerates as Kuwait Strikes Remove ~10% of Seaborne Supply
> Strikes on Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdulla refineries on March 19 have intensified the jet fuel crisis, which was already strained by the effective four-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Kuwait is the world’s second-largest exporter of jet fuel, and the affected volumes represent close to 10% of global seaborne trade, or just under 260,000 bpd of jet fuel exported in 2025.
The disruption will have an outsized impact on northwest European supply, as destinations like France, the U.S., the Netherlands, and Belgium are among the top receivers of Kuwaiti jet fuel.
https://windward.ai/blog/jet-fuel-crisis-accelerates-as-kuwait-strikes-remove-10-of-seaborne-supply/
“Qatar Airways is sending five more widebody aircraft to the safety of Teruel Airport (TEV) as the airline looks to reposition valuable assets away from the dangers of Iranian missiles and drones.”
Reuters article
US lawmaker asks Pentagon to review Safran ventures in China
“A congressional committee chair has asked the Pentagon to review Safran’s (SAF.PA), opens new tab joint ventures in China, saying the French aerospace company’s commercial ties with Chinese companies raise concerns in light of its U.S. defense contracts.”
“Moolenaar’s committee for months has been reviewing the activities of American and Western aerospace companies in China, also including Airbus”
“Moolenaar sent a similar letter to the Pentagon in December raising concerns about Airbus and its ties to Chinese companies including Xi’an Aircraft Industry Group, or XAC.”
let me know how that big Boeing order from China is coming along!
ps Google AI “Boeing has long-standing subcontracts with Shenyang-based firms, mainly within the AVIC (Aviation Industry Corporation of China) group, focusing on component manufacturing for its commercial aircraft. Key partnerships involve producing 777 empennage tips, 737 tail fins, and interior composite panels, strengthening its supply chain within China” wonder if Moolenaar is reviewing this?
> Washington Is Flying Blind on China
Americans talk incessantly about the need to compete with their country’s greatest rival and how to do it. Yet many U.S. policymakers have never been to China.
U.S. officials are left grappling with an abstraction. This can lead to serious misjudgments, such as the escalating tariffs Mr. Trump imposed last year, expecting they would bring China to its knees. In the end, he retreated after Beijing showed it had the tools and capacity to push back.
Seeing China up close — its manufacturing juggernaut, technological and innovative capacities, state-of-the-art infrastructure and state-fostered industrial ecosystems — would help prevent such miscalculations and hopefully lead to U.S. policy that is less complacent, less theatrical and more focused on what’s actually needed to revitalize American industry.
> Nvidia’s Huang calls China ‘formidable’ in robotics as firm bets on physical AI
Huang says US robotics industry will have to rely on China’s supply chain…
… 3D chess vice one dimensional game within Beltway….
New Airbus Tianjin A321 FAL
video…start at 10 minute mark
Airbus Boosts A320 Production Capability with New Tianjin Assembly Line
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VdOhf7BQrI
Note the FAL was done by Broetje Automation (Germany) (noted in 2024 Shanghai Electric Group (they own Broetje) year end results mentioned “Broetje Automation won aircraft assembly line from International aircraft manufacturer with turnkey project thru Broetje Shanghai”
As you can see in the video, China doesn’t need US production equipment/tooling solutions anymore!
One of the benefits of new aircraft launches and production ramp ups are the innovation gains for production equipment and tooling companies. But if US companies are being “limited” (e.g. export controls and geopolitical influence) to only US business, commercial and military aircraft programs, this can cause a future consolidation of US companies in this sector (everyone chasing limited market opportunities). While their global competitors increase innovation with new products and processes in the global aircraft markets (e.g. Europe and China).
this is special….some of these Airbus activities have been around for almost 20 years…so what’s the real deal? Why investigate now? Do you really think China going to give Boeing new aircraft orders?
Moolenaar: French Aerospace Company Supports the CCP’s Military Capabilities
https://chinaselectcommittee.house.gov/media/press-releases/moolenaar-french-aerospace-company-supports-the-ccp-s-military-capabilities
drill down in the announcement to the December 19, 2025 letter to Pete Hegseth about wanting investigate Airbus Activities in China
link for letter chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://chinaselectcommittee.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2025-12-19-letter-to-sec-hegseth.pdf
interesting article that was reference in the letter.. some pics of A320 Tianjin
https://archive.ph/Er0h7
Iran prepared to let Japanese ships transit Hormuz, FM says
> Tehran is prepared to allow Japanese-related ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway through which 93% of Japan’s imported crude oil flows, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said in an interview.
Discussions with Japan on the matter have already begun, according to a transcript of Araghchi’s interview with Kyodo News posted to his Telegram account Saturday. Araghchi said the issue had been raised during his phone call last Tuesday with Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/03/22/japan/politics/japan-iran-hormuz-trump/
Apparently, the conditions for permitted passage are:
– Ship/cargo/buyer has no affiliation to US or Israel;
– Cargo settled in yuan;
– $2M toll fee per ship;
– Ship must follow specific route that hugs the Iranian coast.
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“Iran Negotiates Strait Passage for Yuan-Traded Oil with 8 Countries”
https://www.chosun.com/english/world-en/2026/03/18/YQDQXG4PB5BCVNUI3C5SX3XFR4/
Keep an eye on the US ten-year treasury yield: it has breached 4.4% after smashing thru 4.3%
By the end of the year, everyone is fluent in stagflation (or depression).
“As of Monday, March 23, 2026, the spot price of gold is trading around $4,300 – $4,500 per ounce, marking a significant daily decrease. Gold prices are down over 12% from a week ago” (note Jan 29 $5,300 per ounce)
When will it spread to the aerospace industry? It still relies on the broad industrial manufacturing base.
Reuters: One battle after another: Iran war deals new blow to Europe’s industrial heartland
https://wtvbam.com/2026/03/23/one-battle-after-another-iran-war-deals-new-blow-to-europes-industrial-heartland/
U.S. media outlets are full of articles about how bad things are supposed/imagined to be in Europe.
There seems to be some discomfort with the fact that equities and currencies in Europe, Asia and EM outperformed those in the US last year and in the first 2 months of this year. CNBC, in particular, is making a daily sport of trying to pull Europe, China and Japan down…