Boeing projects 20-40 747-8, 787 deliveries this year

Boeing projects there will be 20-40 deliveries of the 747-8 and 787 this year.

The projection came in its 2010 earnings announcement today, which includes the 2011 outlook.

According to the Ascend data base, 18 747s are scheduled for delivery this year, a figure we believe is reliable because while the 747 has had its issues, the program appears to be in much better shape than the 787. In fact, BCA Jim Albaugh recently told employees that the first freighter without traveled work rolled off the assembly line, an indicator of the program status.

The math, of course, means two to 22 787s will be delivered. Ascend shows 45 787s scheduled for delivery, beginning in August. We don’t find this figure realistic, nor do we believe the optimistic forecast of 22 is possible.

Of the line numbers identified by Ascend, only four are beyond the current block already assembled and parked at Paine Field in Everett, all of which require retrofitting from the fire, the tail assembly and other problems. Boeing previously has said it is possible the current block will be skipped altogether and deliveries will commence in the second block. No firm decision has been made on this, however.

11 Comments on “Boeing projects 20-40 747-8, 787 deliveries this year

  1. Pingback: Tweets that mention Boeing projects 20-40 747-8, 787 deliveries this year « Leeham News and Comment -- Topsy.com

  2. It is good to see up to 18 B-747-8Fs could be delivered this year. OTOH, I would axpect between 8 and 12 B-787-8s will be delivered in 2011. That still falls within what Boeing thinks they can deliver of each type this year for a total between 20 and 40 aircraft.

    So, I think Boeing can deliver up to 26-30 total airplanes of the two types.

  3. I understand that the new 747 is due for release in the middle of the year and production is planned at 1.5 per month, suggesting a total for the year of about 9. Is it usual to release a stockpiled bunch of planes at the start of a program, as these figures suggest?

    For what it’s worth, Jim McNerney is predicting a “roughly 50-50 split” between the 747 and 787 production this year. But as 25 is quite different from 40, and in any case both might be wrong, I’m not sure how meaningful these figures are.

    • A month or so ago there were 10 747s parked around Paine Field. Add these to current production and you come to 18.

  4. Boeing are once again unrealistically optimistic & see the glass as being half full with regard 747/787 production, whereas Boeing pessimist’s more accurately see it being half empty.

    I agree the 747 appears to be in far healthier condition than the 787 but I’m adamant that Boeing will struggle to meet fifty percent of either of the figures quoted.

  5. I am sceptical about the figures quoted. Over 10 customer aircraft of each type would need to be flying today to come anywhere near these delivery targets.

    • Why? Boeing is thinking about adding a few of the assembled aircraft to the flight test program. IIRC, they have already added 1 or 2 to B-747-8Fs the test program.

  6. As far as I know all previous new airplane programs dribbled out deliveries at the start before ramping up later. They haven’t previously delivered planes faster at the start than later on by drawing on a stockpile. I’m curious what’s different about the 747-8 and the 787.

    • they’ve been building them for ~2 years – just haven’t been allowed to deliver any yet…

  7. Here’s hoping they’re right…
    and questioning what hat BigB management uses to pull these figures out of.

    With all the missed targets, deadlines and milestones on the 787 and largely as a result of that on the 748 – how does Boeing keep coming up with these numbers. Is it just an accounting trick to inflate expected production numbers? Are Chicago and Seattle really that far apart that they can’t communicate?
    maybe load up the dream-lifter with corporate types every now and again and make them face the reality of the shop floor – prevent them from getting lost in power-point dreams.

    • Seattle really that far apart that they can’t communicate?

      Probably more of a language barrier than distance caused.

      Nontechnical management types live in a cloud castle completly
      detached from the ground. They don’t even have access to
      basic mental concepts relevant for engineering.
      The Sapir-Whorf hypothesis gets a proof here.
      ( Read “Babel 17” from Zelazny to have an idea )

      ..
      I wonder how these numbers would look under Euro accounting
      rules ( that force you to be much more conservative in
      attaching value to assets than GAPP allows and some other
      shenanigans to beautify your results taken away).

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.