Update, Jan. 28: Think again, Heidi, Airbus says. The company said no way. See this story.
Heidi Wood at Morgan Stanley predicts Airbus may have 1,000 orders by the Paris Air Show and that Boeing will have to respond earlier than its long-talked about 2019-2020 EIS of a new airplane to replace the 737. Here is what Wood says in her report, issued this morning the bold face is hers:
What’s new: Airbus could announce between 500-1,000 new NEO orders by Paris air show (June), which adds pressure for BA to come up with a new 737 replacement. We believe BA could announce a new narrowbody by Paris Air show; re-engining makes less sense, in our view. Crucially, management discussed a new plane by 2019+ however we believe these sizable Airbus’ new orders changes the game & could cause BA to accelerate plans. Our 2013-2014 model contemplates rising R&D vs. the Street, as we reason the new narrow has to occur by 2017/18 for BA to retain its most important customers.
If Wood is correct, watch Airbus crow (1) that this is the “fastest selling airplane ever” and (2) “I told you so” to every doubter.