Boeing projects there will be 20-40 deliveries of the 747-8 and 787 this year.
The projection came in its 2010 earnings announcement today, which includes the 2011 outlook.
According to the Ascend data base, 18 747s are scheduled for delivery this year, a figure we believe is reliable because while the 747 has had its issues, the program appears to be in much better shape than the 787. In fact, BCA Jim Albaugh recently told employees that the first freighter without traveled work rolled off the assembly line, an indicator of the program status.
The math, of course, means two to 22 787s will be delivered. Ascend shows 45 787s scheduled for delivery, beginning in August. We don’t find this figure realistic, nor do we believe the optimistic forecast of 22 is possible.
Of the line numbers identified by Ascend, only four are beyond the current block already assembled and parked at Paine Field in Everett, all of which require retrofitting from the fire, the tail assembly and other problems. Boeing previously has said it is possible the current block will be skipped altogether and deliveries will commence in the second block. No firm decision has been made on this, however.