Boeing, on its year-end and 1Q earnings calls, suggested there will be about 40 deliveries of thy 787 and the 747-8 this year, evenly split between the two.
Aerospace analysts don’t agree, at least on the 787 side. In reports issued this week, Bernstein Research and Buckingham Research forecast eight and seven deliveries respectively. Previously, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan forecast 15 and 16 deliveries, though JP Morgan yesterday warned its number could decline.
Dow Jones reported today that Ethiopian Airlines said its anticipated deliveries for the 787 in December has slipped from December to March. The Ascend data base currently shows Ethiopian’s first 787 scheduled for delivery in January.
Boeing hasn’t announced the date of the first delivery beyond a generic August or September. Ascend shows the first delivery, to launch customer ANA, in August and a total of 16 for the balance of 2011.
We’re not aware of anything specific that could slip the delivery dates, but as for the gross number of deliveries this year, we always felt the number 20 was highly ambitious and unlikely to be achieved due to the rework necessary on the 787s stacked up at Paine Field (now around 30) and the slow production rate of two a month. We think the seven or eight deliveries forecast by Buckingham and Bernstein might even be high.
Boeing has its 2Q earnings call soon, typically the last Wednesday in July (but not yet scheduled), at which new guidance will be announced.