Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 4. Propulsive efficiency April 19, 2024
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
Looking ahead to 2012 by AirInsight
In what is the first of a series of OEM podcasts looking ahead at 2012, AirInsight kicks off with Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing of Boeing Commercial Aircraft.
Separately, Aspire Aviation takes a long look at the Boeing 737 MAX.
Looks like it is going to be the economy and fuel costs (as usual) that will define 2012 for Boeing. I suspect the same for Airbus. Randy expects the MAX to do well in 2012, and my guess is so does John.
The B-77W and B-788 will do well, but in my mind there is a question is how well will the B-747-8I and A-380 do?
Is there going to be another delay in the A-350 program? If there is, that will sit well with Boeing for both the B-777-300ER and the B-787-9. If the A-350 stays relitively on its current schedule, that is good news for that Airbus program, but at the costs of the A-330 program beginning to wind down.
For those of younger age and not aware, the 747 almost bankrupted the Co.
and if it had not been for good 727 and 737 sales in the early 70’s, it appears
that we would have, because it was much to big for it’s time!
The A380, is only about 30% bigger compared to the 747-400 it is replacing,
while the 747 was 300% bigger compared to the 707/DC-8’s they were sup-
posed to replace.
So, while the 747 took close to 10 year to be the right size for the market, the
A380 has been in reasonably good demand from the start.
It will continue to build up sales, to a point within the next 5 years, when they
will stretch it, at which time it will have an extremely low seat-mile costs and
will dominate the med/long range market for the first halve of this century, as
the 747 did during last halve of the 20th century!
The 747-8F will do so in the freighter market, while the passenger version
will just struggle along, unfortunately!
Happy Holidays to you all.
Hi Rudy and Merry Christmas. Like you, I have been around for a while, since the days of the historic B-367-80, and the B-707s an KC-135s it gave birth to (I was fortunate enough to fly on the KC-135 for 22 years). As you know, and most people seem to think the B-747 did come out of the 1963 USAF program called the CX-HLS, which became the C-5. It did not. The B-747 was launched in April 1966 at the request of Jaun Trippe, the head honcho at PanAm, and his initial order of 25 airplanes. Trippe wanted an airplane at least twice the size of the B-707-320B.
Yes, Boeing did almost go bankrupt, but it was less because of the B-747 and more the fault of the very troublesome P&W JT-9D-3A. Although the B-747-100 did have some faults, too, like just bearly having enough range with a full pax load for TATL service.
But the airplane was developed by Joe Sutter, who may have been a friend of yours.
You and I both know the history of the B-747, and Boeing’s bet of the company for the second time in 15 years, or so. Others here may not know it, so that is why I summerized it.
But back on topic. As I said (in the AirInsight Airbus thread) in the 11 years since the A-380 was launched they have only delivered about 60, or so airplanes, from a total order over that time of just 243 airplanes. In the first 11 years after the B-747 was launched Boeing delivered some 315 airplanes on about 360 ordered. Today, I agree the B-747-8I is selling even slower than the A-380, but the B-747-8F is doing reasonably well. It will, most likely be the “F” model that pays for the program. Although Boeing has had models that started off slow in sales only to become successful later.
Recent signals from the 787 line make me nevous.
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/flightblogger/2011/12/boeing-makes-final-787-deliver.html
The last 6 yrs on 787 showed reality to be worse then even pessimist reporting.
Rewiring issues? That’s what delayed A380EIS by 19 months..
It doesn’t say anything about wiring or rewiring issues on the B-787. It does talk about an APU issue, which is the first I have heard about that.
I see the RR Trent-1000 package B engine/B-787 combination did receive its FAA certification on the 19th of Dec. That is good news and clears the way for the first Package B delivery to NH, hopefully in a few days. The other two B-787s Boeing hopes to deliver to NH have Package A engines.
A routine Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) audit of the next three planes due for delivery found some wiring had been installed incorrectly.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2017022179_boeingana16.html
Thanks, keesje. The ‘wiring issue’ sounds like it is not a very big deal. It could be almost anything, including where and how wiring harnesses are fastened and clamped (mthe FAA wiring issue a few years ago on the AA Md-80s? It was all about the clamed routing of the wiring harness in the wheel wells). The story say anything about the wiring being incorrectly installed.
The 3 APUs have been replaced by the supplier. Apparently they would not start.