Looking ahead to 2012 by AirInsight, Pt 2: Airbus

In the second of a series, AirInsight has this podcost with Barry Eccleston, president of Airbus Americas.

25 Comments on “Looking ahead to 2012 by AirInsight, Pt 2: Airbus

  1. He said pretty much what Boeing said the other day. I was amazed he said they were going to produce the A-380 at a rate of 3.5 airplanes per month (42 per year) in 2012. Since Airbus has only delivered 26 or 27 A-380s so far for 2011, that is a lofty goal. That is pushing out at least another 12 airplanes next year.

    • What he should have made clear was that the A380 will ‘move’ to a rate of 3.5/month, sometime in 2012. Taking into account 11 month production cycle, we are looking at 32-33 deliveries.
      Another point is that the 26 a/c deliveries in 2011 were driven not by internal capacity but RR engine availability, following the QF32 incident.

      • Sorry, I just don’t see another 5-7 A-380 deliveries in the 9 remaining days of 2011. That would be almost one per day. As far as I see Airbus has only delivered 1 A-380 in December 2011, so far. Maybe they will deliver one more in 2011? While the QF32 incident did slow RR Trent-900 engine deliveries for a while, I believe Airbus and RR have that issue behind them now. So far, Airbus has delivered some 60-62 A-380s since the first delivery in 2007. They have about 180 more to go with the current backlog. If they go to 42 airplanes per year, beginning in 2012, that is only about 4.25 years of production, or about 51.5 months.

      • ???? Airbus already delivered 26 A380s this year.

        ‘… I believe Airbus and RR have that issue behind them now’
        May well be the case, which does not change that fact that it was a factor in the reduced 2011 deliveries.

        ‘If they go to 42 airplanes per year, beginning in 2012, that is only about 4.25 years of production’
        First, it will not be 42/year for a few years. Second, what are you trying to show with the latter statistics? Are you assuming no additional sales?

  2. KC135TopBoom :
    Sorry, I just don’t see another 5-7 A-380 deliveries in the 9 remaining days of 2011. That would be almost one per day.

    Airbus delivered the last 3 for a summ of 26 in 2011 last week:
    Afaik QF # 12 and EK # 20 on dec 16 and
    CZ # 2 on the 17th

    • I believe Airbus originally forecast just 20-25 A380s for 2011. Apart from the engine troubles they should have had no reason why they couldn’t have gotten upwards of around 30 units out the door. The flow through the Toulouse FAL seems to be going well, it’s the Hamburg outfitting that seems to remain somewhat problematic.

  3. UKair :???? Airbus already delivered 26 A380s this year.
    ‘… I believe Airbus and RR have that issue behind them now’May well be the case, which does not change that fact that it was a factor in the reduced 2011 deliveries.
    ‘If they go to 42 airplanes per year, beginning in 2012, that is only about 4.25 years of production’First, it will not be 42/year for a few years. Second, what are you trying to show with the latter statistics? Are you assuming no additional sales?

    Why not? [Edited out.]

    Uwe :

    KC135TopBoom :Sorry, I just don’t see another 5-7 A-380 deliveries in the 9 remaining days of 2011. That would be almost one per day.

    Airbus delivered the last 3 for a summ of 26 in 2011 last week:Afaik QF # 12 and EK # 20 on dec 16 andCZ # 2 on the 17th

    Thanks, I missed the delivery to CZ. But I already said they had delivered some 26 or 27 this year.

  4. +++ Airbus Production at full Steam – Hiring in Fear of Production Bottlenecks +++

    Airbus (daughter of EADS) is planning to hire additional 4,000 employees in 2012 (Dow Jones Newswires). Airbus has already been hiring 4,000 new employees for A350 XWB production during 2011 (awp international).
    November 2011 was another busy month for Airbus, booking an increment of 149 orders for A320, A330 and A380 aircraft.
    Firm orders for the A320neo Family reached 1,196 units, ordered by a total of 21 customers, will possibly surpass 1,200 units until year’s end.
    ALAFCO lessor alone ordered 50 A320neo series aircraft. Qatar Airways followed suit with also 50 A320neo series orders. Aviation Capital Group signed an agreement for 30 A320neos.
    Actually, Airbus is delivering new aircraft with a cadence of nearly 2 units per day, which is up around 4% since last year. Qatar Airways also placed a repeat order for 5 more A380, which brings total A380 orders to 243 from 18 customers.
    Also the new A330-200F freighters sell extremely well, start to get a new cash cow for Airbus.
    Including November 2011 orders, Airbus’ total backlog stands now at a new record of 4,453 – consisting of 3,348 A320 Family jetliners, 925 aircraft in the A330/A340/A350 XWB families, and 180 A380s. (Airbus communique).

  5. Perhaps a bit overly generous view of Airbus’ world, but none more so than this comment:

    Evin Ormond :
    Also the new A330-200F freighters sell extremely well, start to get a new cash cow for Airbus.

    Airbus A330-200F order book for 2011 stands at -5. 7 firm orders from Turkish and Avianca are offset by 12 cancellations. If that’s a cash cow, I’d hate to see what a dog looks like!

    • Perhaps he made a factual mistake with that line, but why are you so critical of him when he essentially said a true statement?

  6. Erin Ormond wrote;

    “which brings total A380 orders to 243 from 18 customers”

    Well, the A-3XX (before being renamed the A-380, skipping over the A-350, A-360, and A-370 model numbers) was launched on 19 Dec. 2000 with 50 orders from 5 customers. From that point, Airbus has sold a total of (including the 50 launch airplanes) 243 airplanes in 11 years!!!! Burning up the sales record books for newly launched airplanes, isn’t it?

    “Including November 2011 orders, Airbus’ total backlog stands now at a new record of 4,453 – consisting of 3,348 A320 Family jetliners, 925 aircraft in the A330/A340/A350 XWB families, and 180 A380s.”

    Why, oh why, does the Airbus cheerleader squad always insist on grouping the A-330/-340/-350 orders together? The A-340 isn’t even offered for sale anymore (I doubt the 2 A-345s on backorder will ever get built). The A-350 is suppose to be a completely new airplane……that’s what the cheerleaders keep saying. Why don’t we let Boeing group the B-767/-777/-787 sales and backlogs together and see who has the bigger number. BTW, Boeing offers all three models for sale even today (they just sold 27 more B-767s to FedEx). The B-767F has outsold the A330F in the time period since the A-330F was launched. But on the Airbus side, only the A-330/-350 are currently offered for sale, and two models of the A-350 are doing poorly.

    As for the A-320 series, it (currently) does have a slightly heavier orderbook than the B-737 series. The A-32X series has a backorder of 3348, like you said, the B-737NG/MAX has a backorder of 3163 as of 12 Dec. 2011. But, just 4 months ago, Airbus had more than 1000 A-32Xs on backorder than Boeing had for the B-737, then the MAX was launched.

    • It’s Christmas, or shortly will be, time to forget damaged ego’s & the miriad of spurious numbers being bounced around here & prepare for a gay & jolly Xmas holiday.

      Another brilliant year for the duopoly, it’s very existance means everybody now gains passengers & carriers alike, YTD maths seems to indicate last years encumbent retains the crown yet again. by any measure thats quite a result for a relative upstart…..

  7. He said he got his numbers from the Airbus communique, which may have listed these together (for brevity perhaps?). Maybe you need to take it up with Airbus.

  8. Your absolutly right, Phil

    Merry Christmas to all of my friends here, and a Happy New Year!!!!!!

  9. I agree, Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you, friends as well as foes …

  10. Merry X-mas & a happy 2012 to everyone.

    It have been exiting times from an aerospace perspective. And it will remain so. Looking ahead NEO, MAX, A350, 777-8, 747-8i, CSeries, Comac, J20, JSF, X2, X3, KC767, PAKFA, A400M lots of interesting projects going on.

    One of the 2011 high lights IMO: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I14weyVGxCI

  11. The A380 tackles efficiency through economy of scale, the 787 and A350 through lighter materials. If the 787 and A350 underdeliver on the gains that were touted several years ago, that makes a better case for the 748, A388, and A389.

    • Well, not exactly. If the B-787 and/or A-350 underdeliver, that makes no case for the B-748 or A-388. It makes a case for the B-777 and A-330.

  12. What I’m waiting for to see in 2012 is the “actual” (i.e.-published) A350-1000 numbers, Boeing’s response and if Boeing launches the B787-10X.

    I am also looking forward to see how B737MAX and A32XNEO sales progress.

    Finally, I would like to wish everyone here “happy holidays” and a prosperous 2012. 🙂

    • I agree, Jacobin777. It would be interesting to see the real numbers of the A-3510. But I doubt it will make Boeing respond with a B-7810. Boeing’s response will be the B-777X, as it has been.

      I think the sales for both the NEO and MAX will top out around 2000 to 2500 for each airplane. That seems to be about the limit each OEM is willing to add to their orderbooks. Any orders above those numbers are so far into the future they are really just a wish book as opposed to orders. Keep in mind the NEO is scheduled for EIS in 2016 and the MAX for 2017. An order book of 2500 for each type is some ten years out from EIS to delivery. That is 15+ years from now for the 2500th NEO and 2500th MAX to be delivered. Some airline customers may not be in business by then. Don’t forget the Boeing NSA, around 2022, will also have a major impact on sales of both the NEO and the MAX, so will Airbus’s new NB design around 2028.

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