HOTR: Boeing sees travel recovery end of 2024

By the Leeham News Team

Nov. 2, 2021, © Leeham News: Although US domestic passenger traffic seems to be booming, globally air travel remains well below 2019 levels preceding the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

Boeing sees domestic travel recovering in 2022. But international, widebody traffic won’t recover until the end of 2024, Boeing predicts.

In an appearance last week before the Aerospace Futures Alliance in Seattle, Janene Collins, VP of Contracts & Sourcing Supply Chain, also said Boeing expects a supply chain squeeze is likely to impact plans to increase airplane production rates.

Vaccinations, improving economies drive recovery

Collins said vaccinations and improving economies are accelerating air travel recovery. As vaccinations become more widespread and economies recover, pent-up demand is spurring traffic. However, international border restrictions and proof of vaccinations continue to inhibit travel recovery, however.

Supply chain squeeze

Collins also told the AFA conference that competition for raw materials and labor, especially in the US, is a rising concern. Shipping at US ports is backing up, with hundreds of cargo vessels anchored awaiting labor and truck drivers to unload and ship their freight.

On Boeing’s 3Q2021 earnings call the next day, CEO David Calhoun said, “We’re actively working to ensure the production system, including the supply chain, is stable prior to making decisions to further increase

the production rate. Raw materials, logistics and labor availability will also be key watch items for future rate increases.

“With economic activity picking up, labor availability within our supply chain will be the critical watch item,” Calhoun said.

Snippets from the Boeing earnings call

Other quick facts from the earnings call:

  • About one-third (122) of the current 737 MAX inventory of 370 airplanes is destined for China.
  • “We have to get better at delivering [737s] out of the completion center our inventoried airplanes,” Calhoun said. (Delivery of MAXes from inventory is taking about twice as long as previously expected, a knowledgeable source tells )
  • Boeing will increase the production capacity of the 777F, which currently is about 1.5/mo, due to the demand for freighters. Boeing did not specify the new rate.
Boeing faces cancellations for 787s

Boeing has about 110 787s in inventory, representing the suspension of deliveries since October 2020. LNA understands that one major customer sees as many as half of these aircraft as subject to cancellation before deliveries resume.  No date has been set for resumption. But, based on information LNA has obtained as affected airlines look for substitute lift, it may be well into the first quarter of 2022 before Boeing begins clearing this inventory.

Boeing, and airlines, are shopping for available 777-300ERs to provide substitute lift for the grounded 787s. Some airlines seek long-term leases, suggesting cancellations are possible. As the delivery delays pass 9-12 months, customers are able to cancel the aircraft–even if built.

 

163 Comments on “HOTR: Boeing sees travel recovery end of 2024

    • The air traffic increase is caused leaders flying in for the UN climate change conference #26. Here UN Secretary Antionio Guteteres will beg fir more money. Biden, Johnson and several global leaders were all caught napping side by side (I don’t blame them, the opening ceremonies were cliche) .

      There certainly will be consequences for aviation.

      31 OCT – 12 NOV 2021
      GLASGOW
      COP26. UN Climate Change Conference.
      IN PARTNERSHIP WITH ITALY

    • Yah, I saw that too. Question I have is…why? Is it the fix that is taking so long?

      • finding new/willing customers?
        ( how good is Boeing in rearranging the delivery heap.
        .. and how accommodating are customers?)

      • Imagine you are taking a few Max aircraft from Boeing. One comes off the line, has an acceptance flight, a few snags are ironed out and then it’s delivered with all the G&W as per contract. Then you get one from inventory. After it was rolled out, they parked it for 2 years with regular checks of engines and lines. It has a different spec to the line aircraft and it has a lot more snags to be fixed. Also, the G&W on some items is now down to a year….

        • I understand that – parking something for that long is never a good thing. Point I’m trying to make is that they have all this inventory there and like Airbus, their customers want their narrowbody jets. They’ve moved 195 since Dec 2020.

          I think BA underestimated the time it would take to get them up to spec.

          With the latest “Done by 2024” that means that potentially you could have a Max sitting there for 5 years, or so.

          Might as well pull everything useful off of it and put the pieces back into the production line, send the leftovers to the crusher, no? You’d probably get a lot closer to full contracted value for one right off the line, as opposed to one that’s been pickling for that long…

          • Frank:

            Clearly being parked is not ideal but new parked vs old is different.

            Also keep in mind, aircraft can be and are parked for years and then brought back into service.

            I strongly suspe3dcft that a bird coming back from a D check has a lot more gripes than a MAX that has sat for a few years.

            I worked around jet aircraft mechanics and that was there biggest issue was aircraft out of C and D checks.

          • @TW

            OK, I see your point. I was under the impression that leaving an aircraft sitting like that is probably one of the worst things you can do to it – especially since they are not being parked in the desert, with dry air – but in the pacific NW.

            Probably just a maintenance nightmare for the guys like you who have to clean up the mess of other people…

  1. Unfortunately, I think the Boeing estimate for return of widebody traffic (end 2024) may be quite realistic, for many reasons:
    – Heavily vaccinated regions like the EU and Singapore are currently experiencing sharp upticks in case numbers; various restrictions are being (incrementally) re-introduced so as to prevent healthcare overburden. The USA will probably show the same tendencies in about 4-6 weeks (the usual east-to-west lag).
    – Flights to/from Asia are only possible to/from a handful of countries. Singapore is leading the way with its VTL (Vaccinated Travel Lane) program, but — when you read the fine print — conditions may be considered punitive for some travelers. For example, if Singapore has a VTL program with Country A but not with Country B, then travelers from Country B must first spend 2 weeks in Country A before being allowed to use the VTL to Singapore. As a result, brief layovers in non-VTL “hub countries” are not allowed — flights must be direct.
    – Will your travel insurance cover you if you fall ill in your destination country? Will there be a hospital/IC bed for you? Who wants language barriers in the midst of a medical emergency?
    – If you’re going on vacation, will all the normal leisure/entertainment/sports facilities be open to you at your destination?

    Not trying to precipitate a discussion of the pandemic here, but these are realities that are still very much in our faces. For the time being, domestic/regional travel seems to be a far “safer” bet.

    • @Bryce

      Key A is getting protocal agreement + co ordination between countries which looks impossible, given the vx are disfunctional and nobody knows nothing, viz Delta variants ++ lurking

      Key B is insurance – premiums for any at risk groups are going to or already have soared – guess what: all ‘populations’ are ‘vulnerable’ – here is a once in a lifetime opportunity to make a lot of bank

      Both are going to impact domestic sooner rather than later

  2. “Shipping at US ports is backing up, with hundreds of cargo vessels anchored awaiting labor and truck drivers to unload and ship their freight.”

    This can’t be a “sudden” new problem, can it?
    derelict and deteriorating infrastructure?

    • The global logistics system was a highly optimised set up that couldn’t take a pandemic sized shock. Excess capacity costs money, and no one was paying for it to exist. Lose 5% of any part of it (eg truck drivers) and it goes wrong very quickly.

      • And yet, the EU isn’t experiencing logistical dislocation from lack of truckers and/or blocked-up sea ports.
        The UK certainly is.
        So, it seems to be specific to certain countries rather than a generic problem.

          • The “delay” in Rotterdam is/was only for river traffic on the Rhein/Meuse — not for sea traffic. The cause was/is construction work and installation of new IT systems. The solution is to temporarily make more use of rail and road rather than river barges. It’s causing zero dislocation.

            The situation in China was/is caused by several ports reducing/stopping operations as a result of CoViD lockdowns — not by a lack of truckers.

            The trucker shortage and lack of handling capacity seem to be predominantly a US/UK thing.

          • Recent Reuters report (I.e. not outdated old news @DoU):
            Port congestion has eased at most Chinese ports but the giant Los Angeles/Long Beach container port still has a backlog of 222,0000 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent unit).

            Recent AP report:
            153 ships at anchor, berthed or “loitering” — cruising while awaiting dock space 

            Recent Bloomberg report:
            Trucking trips originating around the U.S.’s busiest ports are showing massive increases in idle time, another sign of the supply-chain logjams plaguing American transport hubs. From the start of 2018 through October 2021, idle time per vehicle has increased by 50%, according to data compiled by Lytx, a San Diego-based company whose telematics that monitor vehicles are used by 1.4 million drivers worldwide. So far this year, there is more than a day’s worth of idle time per vehicle, up from 17 hours per vehicle in 2019 and 21.5 hours in 2020. The data found that 50 years in idle time has been wasted this year.

        • UK lack of truckers is a bit more nuanced. Lots of UK truckers retired just as COVID started to hit.

          This wouldn’t normally be a problem, there were people training to replace the retirees, but with COVID lockdowns in the UK the Govt. stopped all driving tests from taking place for long periods of time.

          A bit of forward planning would have shown this would become a problem & Govt. should have put measures in place to ensure future truck drivers could access testing & get qualified for the more specialist areas such as driving fuel tankers.

          This was compounded by the shift of large parts of the economy to Zero hour contracts including truck drivers from Europe who were providing services in the UK. Due to COVID lockdowns a number of EU drivers were effectively locked down in their home countries / EU & thus unable to drive to & from Europe & UK & of course within the UK.

          A relentless march towards Just In Time manufacturing/storage/delivery has made supply chains very brittle, it only takes a relatively small impact on one part of the chain to cause huge disruption.

          On the last point, of course the aviation industry & airframers are only too aware how important their supply chains are. Boeing & Airbus will only be able to ramp up supply of aircraft as fast as the weakest component in their supply chain allows.

      • That is a decidedly US centric cop out. ( doesn’t “The Market” fix everything instantly? 🙂

        Afaik there is no congestion at EU ports or problems
        with moving the stuff inland. Even the Suez blockage
        ( that did not touch the US pac coast ) has been mastered
        reasonably well. Quite a bit of careful marshaling of incoming vessels ( two delayed streams : the Suez passage ones and diversions around the Cape.)

  3. “Boeing has about 110 787s in inventory…as many as half of these aircraft as subject to cancellation before deliveries resume.”

    If/when 787s are cancelled, BA has to repay any prepayments made by the customer(s) — which makes a further (gaping) hole in its balance sheet.
    In this regard, its interesting to note that (parts of) all three major commercial aviation programs at BA — 737MAX, 787 and 777X — are now exposed to potential penalty-free cancellations by customers. The size of this potential problem is enormous: the link below (from Nasdaq) shows that Boeing has “liabilities totaling US$132.4b more than its cash and near-term receivables combined” — the excess above it’s “conventional” net debt of $40b comprises the sum of various prepayments made by customers on all outstanding orders.
    It appears that BA is reluctant to hand back these prepayments in cash– cf. the lawsuits filed by Norwegian and LOT.
    Meanwhile, as of September, the net 787 order tally for 2021 had shrunk by 9 units — which would seem to indicate that cancellations have already begun to some extent.

    https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/boeings-nyse%3Aba-debt-is-one-step-ahead-of-short-term-improvements-2021-08-18

    • “Boeing has about 110 787s in inventory …”

      notice the deafening silence and compare to the
      press claxon blaring 15..10 years ago for just ~50 frames sitting on the lawn.

      Media management has vastly improved at Boeing.
      What else is damped out?

    • @Bryce

      The unsold planes you show up as liabilities do not Boeing count as assets?

      • The planes have cost money to build, and they have some nominal value that will be added to inventory/assets. Perhaps the projected margin on them is added to goodwill. But the sums prepaid by customers are considered liabilities, because Boeing may have to repay them in the event of a cancellation prior to delivery (i.e. they’re effectively loans).

        A field day for a creative accountant 😉

        • Planes completed are not inventory but are counted as çash in hand’.
          Its just an accounting term not a really meaning only money in bank.

          • -> “Boeing and airlines … are shopping for… substitute lift for the grounded 787s. Some airlines seek long-term leases, suggesting cancellations are possible. As the delivery delays pass 9-12 months, customers are able to cancel the aircraft–even if built.’

            Looks more like depreciating assets like 737 MAX white tails!!

      • @Gerrard

        As the recent BA result shown, selling unsold planes generated little additional cash. BA is in need of cash for B777XF/NBA and debt repayment.

  4. Ryanair missed the golden moment to order737MAX, the market is coming back and MCAS and covid-19 wiped out the massive over ordering. Airlines are also going to be under a lot of pressure to keep their co2 emissions down.
    Now is the moment to put up a silly offer for some 787s

  5. Good news, we are holding a gun against the head of the Chinese,
    Ask them to accept those planes.

  6. at last!
    we start to hear about supply chain issues…
    But not the plain ugly truth, which is that quite a lot of faithful Boeing suppliers have been starving for much too much time.
    And BOEING is certainly not in a position to help them!
    and for quite a lot of parts, finding another source is time consuming, and expensive.
    One part missing, (out of 1 000 000) and you have a problem!
    stay tuned

    • While no where near all of it, one part in a million is an air freight opportunity.

      Not likely, you need hundreds if not thousands of the same part for any production system.

      but if its small enough and available, you can air freight it.

      If the supply issues go on long enough its an opportunity for Boeing and Airbus. The 777F is in production, the A330F is kind of in standby (with A330MRT being produced) and they can supply an freighter or two or three a month and that means 30-40 a year. Far more than conversion centers.

      This is the kind of problem that can create market shifts.

      • semiconductors are a production and not a transport/delivery issue. ( independent of vast amounts of hardware “stored” just off the Pacific US shore.

    • The chip shortage shows us the problem of missing 1 part out of hundreds of thousand.

      The MAX can’t be delivered without seats or galley etc.

      • Second Source management is “wichtig”.

        My design constraints given:
        parts available from two independent sources.
        no (replacable) US content 🙂

  7. Funny thing, seeing Boeing with more B787 in stock as during the grounding.
    That company is a mess.

    It’s basically in customers hands – they need the planes -> they take them, but will pressure some discount. They don’t, because air traffic doesn’t recover -> bad luck Boeing.

    What a shame if cancellations occure and you ahve to undo a newly built cabin.

    • I believe recent white tails have been sold with the existing cabin. Redoing the cabin would be quite expensive. Even Lufthansa (who believes in a fleet wide uniform cabin setup) was willing to take on white tails with cabins formerly customized for another airline. For the right price probably.

      • Where Lufthansa is concerned, Lufthansa Technik regularly does cabin stripping/fitting — so that one isn’t particularly unusual.
        Where other airlines are concerned: one can only assume that the cabin stripping/fitting is done at another location, at Boeing’s expense.

        I’m not aware of any/many airlines that are prepared to fly using interiors with a competitor’s color scheme/logo. An exception is the HiFly wet-leased A380, in which HiFly was content to leave the luxe SIA interior in place.

  8. What a shock!?! BA decimated the supply chain first by partnering for “success”, then turning it on and off like a switch.

  9. And yet another problem for Boeing:
    Reuters: “From Boeing to Mercedes, a U.S. worker rebellion swells over vaccine mandates”

    “AUSTIN/SEATTLE, Nov 2 (Reuters) – In Wichita, Kansas, nearly half of the roughly 10,000 employees at aircraft companies Textron Inc (TXT.N) and Spirit AeroSystems (SPR.N) remain unvaccinated against COVID-19, risking their jobs in defiance of a federal mandate, according to a union official.

    “We’re going to lose a lot of employees over this,” said Cornell Beard, head of the local Machinists union district. Many workers did not object to the vaccines as such, he said, but were staunchly opposed to what they see as government meddling in personal health decisions.”

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/boeing-mercedes-us-worker-rebellion-swells-over-vaccine-mandates-2021-11-02/?rpc=401&

    *** Let’s not descend into a discussion of vaccines or politics — the point here is that a labor problem is looming/occurring, and it affects US industry.

    • interesting split:
      Mercedes workers seem have a 2/3 rate and willing to go

      while the first example Textron only shows <50%
      with quite a bit of organizes opposition.

    • I’d suppose that a significant range of customers aren’t too sad about the delays. As long as the Covid19 shadow persists.

      We had a similar situation in scope of the GFC ~2008
      Boeing couldn’t deliver as promised but …customers had compatible issues too.

      One could expand synchronicity into intentional causation?
      (SCNR)

  10. There were doubts that Airbus’ return to pre-pandemic production levels is realistic due to supply chain concerns.

    If you consider that the Boeing supply chain had to endure way more significant cuts and even complete standstills, there is even more risk for Boeing here.
    They have to come back from zero in case of the 737MAX and 2-5/month for the 787 after all.
    Maybe the Boeing supply chain is more elastic due to more defence business etc.?

    Suggestion for future blog: How does the Airbus strategy of multiple factories for the single aisles compare to the Boeing approach of one major factory? In thepry the Boeing way should be more efficient?

    • Putting all your eggs in one basket is never a good idea.
      When BA was producing 787s at multiple locations, WA could be used to mop up the mess made in SC; with production only occurring in SC, there’s no mop-up location left.

    • Supply chain capacity is subject to factory capacity and available trained labour. The main difference I can see to Airbus programs is that Airbus was afraid to go too low in production rate not to damage the supply chain. While Boeing was going to zero (couldnt be helped due the groundings maybe, but its still reality).
      So if Boeing suppliers acted in good ol-fahioned US hire and fire mentality – that will delay any ramp up. It’ll take some time to train new staff. And that staff will start at the beginning of the experience curve.

    • IIRC Air Canada got some bailout money from the Feds and as a condition, they had to accept delivery of all the A220’s they ordered.

    • Its what happens when companies make massive profits in a short time. The oil companies would go on a drilling boom, the US car makers would buy all sorts of related business…repair chains , rental cars or in those places that allow it major dealers. The drug companies would scoop up competitors and new drug lines.
      It reduces taxes.

    • @TW

      RE: A350F

      You forgot LNA: “It’s also unlikely the Airbus Board would have authorized the program launch without customers ready to go.”

      • The Board has to authorise ‘to offer airlines a new plane model’

        Still isnt launched yet, but may have been talking turkey to very interested carriers but no firm details , prices and timing.

        Once carriers have committed then a launch will be announced with ‘customers’

  11. On the subject of the continuing massive interest in freighters:
    “AirAsia interested in potential A321neo freighter”

    “KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s AirAsia Group Bhd is in talks with Airbus SE about its interest in the manufacturer developing a new factory-built freighter version of the A321neo passenger plane, the head of its cargo arm said on Wednesday.

    AirAsia would seek to convert some of its 362 orders for the passenger version of the A321neo narrowbody to a dedicated freighter, said Pete Chareonwongsak, CEO of AirAsia cargo division Teleport.

    “For a lot of the markets that we need to reach both in range but also in capacity, it’s a great product,” he told reporters of the potential freighter. “Would we be the launch customer? I don’t know. We’ll see.””

    https://www.brecorder.com/news/40130937/airasia-interested-in-potential-airbus-a321neo-freighter

    • According to the FG article you referred to a few days ago:

      JP Morgan: “It became clear … that BA’s plan to eliminate the bulk of its MAX inventory by [y.e. 2022] was no longer realistic, has now pushed this to [y.e. 2023], implying at least a portion will remain into 2024”

      It expects BA will have 150 MAX in its inventory in 2024.

      Jefferies estimates BA will end 2023 with 100 737 MAX undelivered.

      It also believes BA won’t be able to increase the MAX production rate to 31 until 22Q4.

      • All of which illustrates why Tim Clark is unhappy — he knows that, at BA, dates slip as easily as skates on ice.
        Any sign of a TIA from the FAA yet?

        • From AW:

          “There has been a lot of speculation about Emirates possibly reducing its 777X order further … AW estimates the first 777-9 will be delivered to Emirates in the second quarter of 2024 and the first … 777-8 in the first quarter of 2025.”

          “Etihad plans to phase out its 777-300ERs by y.e. … raising questions about its intentions for 777X.”

          • The thing everybody thinks but doesn’t dare to say:

            Emirates considering A350-1000s

            Like Qatar, Etihad, BA, Qantas and a lot of their other friends/ competitors.

            They don’t want to become Airbus captive though.

          • @keesje

            They don’t want to become Airbus captive though.

            Imagine you work for Boeing and the reason that a customer is taking your aircraft is not that you make high quality machines, not because they are super efficient, not because they (and you) are making the best in the world…

            …but they are taking them because your customer doesn’t always want to order from your sole competitor.

            “Buy Boeing, so all your eggs aren’t in one basket”

  12. > keesje
    November 3, 2021
    The thing everybody thinks but doesn’t dare to say:
    Emirates considering A350-1000s
    Like Qatar, Etihad, BA, Qantas and a lot of their other friends/ competitors. <

    Makes sense, don't it?

    • Without support from the ME3, what’s the future of the 777X? Toasted (at least financially)??

      • Airlines like Lufthansa only have 364 seats in 4 classes on its 747-8. Airlines like that and say British Airlines are similar with premium heavy layouts.

        Their B777-9 planes will have around 350 seats if that which isnt that large in the scheme of things
        The 777-300ER sold around 850 planes over its 20 yr life, plus those of the 777F which is similar MTOW you are getting up around 1000 over the life of the plane.

    • It’s unreal, isn’t it?
      Back in May, the FAA said in a letter to BA that there wasn’t enough progress on addressing the pitch control issue in the 777X, it said that the plane design wasn’t yet “mature enough”, and it refused to grant a TIA.
      We’re now 6 months further and it seems that there has been little to no progress in the meantime…how else does one explain the FAA re-sharing the DG article?
      One can vividly imagine Tim Clark’s exasperation.

      • U.S. air safety chief says Boeing has ‘more work to do’

        https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/faa-administrator-says-boeing-more-155814948.html

        (from today)

        “Boeing is not the same as it was two years ago but they have more to work to do,” Dickson told the Senate Commerce Committee on Wednesday. Boeing did not immediately comment. “We have reset the relationship with Boeing in no uncertain terms.”

        “Line engineers had early warnings, whether it’s the (Boeing) 787 battery issue, or whether it was this issue related to synthetic airspeeds or the complexity of automation and overload of pilots in the system,” Cantwell said. “Those line engineers weren’t listened to.”

        Dickson said the FAA is delegating fewer responsibilities to Boeing for aircraft certification. He told the committee the FAA is “demanding more transparency” from manufacturers.

    • It’d be good if you could link to the original articles- some of use don’t use the Twit-twit.

      • It’s not app only. You can view the tweet and click the link in a browser.

    • is Synthetic Data like AoA, .. another one of these “Duh, simple, just do .. ”
      naive solutions that have unexpected but grave downsides?

    • With a well designed airframe shouldn’t TIA be achievable from near day one after a finished prototype had its first flight and achieved full flight envelope expansion ?

      How many 777X frames will be finished, sitting around somewhere, when Boeing is ready for a first customer delivery?

      • A replay of 787 terrible teens?

        Frames sent-offs to museums, sold at a fraction, wrote-offs, scrapped …

        But it’s a different time now, 787 gobbled up large number of orders, OTOH …

  13. Senate committee hearing: “Boeing has ‘more to work to do’ after fatal crashes says FAA head”

    “The head of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Steve Dickson, told a Senate committee on Wednesday that Boeing has “more work to do” years after two of its 737 Max planes fatally crashed due to design flaws in the model.

    Speaking to the Senate Commerce Committee, Dickson said, “Boeing is not the same as it was two years ago, but they have more to work to do.””

    https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/aviation/579910-boeing-has-more-to-work-to-do-after-fatal-crashes-says-faa

  14. > SWA = Texas. All you gotta know about the “Let’s go Brandon” crowd… <

    I am not so sure about that claim.

  15. > Imagine you work for Boeing and the reason that a customer is taking your aircraft is not that you make high quality machines, not because they are supImagine you work for Boeing and the reason that a customer is taking your aircraft is not that you make high quality machines, not because they are super efficient, not because they (and you) are making the best in the world…er efficient, not because they (and you) are making the best in the world… <

    "buy Boeing, because our aircraft are not *entirely* obsolete sh!t.."

    inspiring..

    • The original comment here reminds me of something said some years ago by an IBM salesman after all his reasons to by a nice new IBM mainframe instead of a different manufacturers product were comprehensively shredded.

      The comment was “No one ever got fired for buying an IBM”. We bought a different system very shortly after that.

  16. On the subject of the Senate grilling of the FAA, Dominic Gates now has a more detailed article (link below).

    Among many noteworthy and informative snippets of information:

    — “He added that the FAA is still issuing an airworthiness certificate for each individual 737 MAX that Boeing delivers to a customer today.”

    — “She said her committee has been told “by various whistleblowers” that the culture inside the FAA remains too cozy with Boeing.”

    — “Cantwell asked why rules are not yet in place to reform the way new versions of older aircraft models are allowed to be certified with less scrutiny, even though they might be significantly changed from the original model — an issue highlighted by the 737 MAX investigations.
    Dickson said the FAA has commissioned an outside contractor, the not-for-profit Mitre Corp., to examine the criteria used for such decisions, and has convened a working group of international regulators to harmonize the rules.”

    — “Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., raised a Department of Transportation Inspector General Report this month that found lacking the FAA’s inspections of airplane maintenance at American Airlines.
    Dickson accepted that criticism and said the agency is working to provide “professional development of our inspectors.””

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/u-s-senators-grill-faa-chief-over-safety-reforms-and-impact-of-vaccine-mandate/

  17. Off topic – but it is interesting to see alternative explanations of the crisis at Boeing.

    David Calhoun, Boeing CEO “this is Boeing being tough on Boeing”

    Steve Dickinson, FAA Chief: “We have reset the relationship with Boeing in no uncertain terms.”

    I know which one I think has more credibility.

  18. – What’s the potential impact for BA/ET as the internal conflict gets closer to the capital: its main hub?

    Note: I’m talking the impact to BA/ET (aviation stuff only, nothing else).

    – If there is no runway 3 for LHR, more narrow body direct flights?

  19. Current and former Boeing directors have reached an approximately $225 million agreement to settle a shareholder lawsuit over 737 MAX safety oversight, according to people familiar with the matter.

    Current and former directors’ *insurance companies* expected to pay Boeing about $225 million in settlement of shareholder lawsuit over oversight of 737 MAX.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/R_Wall/status/1456440454526881792

        • The original article fits in with the “mood du jour” among many groups in that country, i.e. “blame everyone else for our own mess”.

          The next chapter is already starting, i.e. feeling peeved that China is taking more AB than BA planes. Doubtless, the usual weapon — trade sanctions — will be deployed in an attempt to address this, with untold collateral damage.

        • Loren Thomson of the Lexington Institute at work.

          What do you expect from a SpinDoctor Mouthpiece?
          ( content wise it is the same old inane narrative
          he pushed during the “first tanker wars”.)

          • From Loren Thompson’s LinkedIn

            -> In addition to my role as Chief Operating Officer of the Lexington Institute, I am Chief Executive Officer of Source Associates — a consulting business that advises aerospace and defense companies

      • “One could posit” sounds a lot of better than saying “one could speculate without any facts”

        • @OldGooneyBird

          It not only sounds better, it is better

          It is certainly not to speculate to suggest/evoke such a reason rapidly to settle a lawsuit by such an extremely litigious and settlement shy company as BA

          This case was brought by powers much too important for BA to ignore, and besides, as was noted, they got off very cheaply – it’s what may be called a warning shot only

  20. Boeing has a press conference on commercial derivatives update on the 777X/737 MAX on Monday.

  21. With regard to cancelling 787 orders, Air Lease Corp. announced yesterday that it had cancelled three units.

    “Air Lease Corporation says the company has cancelled three Boeing 787 Dreamliner orders due to the airframer’s ongoing issues with the type.

    That said, even though the aircraft remains its primary worry, executives say the company could deliver up to 16 of the widebodies next year if and when the US airframer begins to restart its deliveries.

    “Our main concern is the ongoing 787 delivery freeze,” John Plueger, the company’s chief executive officer, says on 4 November. “We were scheduled to receive 10 new 787s by the end of the year. At this juncture we are uncertain we will be able to receive any of our 787s by the end of the year.”

    “In some cases these aircraft are or will be more than 12 months late and as such we have cancelled three 787s,” he adds.

    Executive chairman Steven Udvar-Hazy adds that the company’s ”big question mark” remains the 787.”

    https://africapearl.com/2021/11/04/air-lease-cancels-3-boeing-787s-this-year-could-deliver-up-to-16-next-year-news.html

  22. Calhoun on China:

    “If we can’t move airplanes into China, which is 25% of global growth in the next decade, our global leadership is going to suffer,” Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun told Aviation Week in June (AW&ST, June 14-27, page 46).

    Beyond industry specifics, politics are “a big factor”, one executive says. Given the tensions between the U.S. and China “there is no chance for Boeing to get an order soon and it does not look great for Europe either.

    https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/aircraft-propulsion/airbus-boeing-china-airline-orders-backlog-shrinking

    Thanks Dave – we’ll worry about our own market
    – AB

    • And, yet, AB is expanding its FAL in China so as to add A321neo manufacture…

      • More delays to the C919 then ?

        I wonder how those Leap-1C engine deliveries are going ?
        is there a plan ‘C’ for that

        • I’d imagine that “Plan C” may simply be not to certify/buy any more Boeings until LEAP shipments start…and, in the meantime, step up efforts on a domestic engine.

          • One single aisle maker has its production skyline largely intact while another has large gaps and is projecting a lower monthly build rate.
            While in China a new single aisle has uncertain engine delivery. Its an interesting idea that an advanced domestic engine of this thrust range can be made out of thin air, especially when it hasnt been …lets say , not something they have done before.
            What would be the ‘ development- production’ methods best suited for rapid technical progress, maybe theres a simple word to describe it ?

          • @DoU

            Bryce has already outlined what China plans to do – just as China has been successful with rest of their infrastructure it seems very likely they will succeed with this

            To remind you of what happens in these situations – the declining economy hands over to the ascendant

            c.f. England USA 19thC : Slater the traitor, Swann-Edison, Bessemer-Carnegie

          • @DoU
            You may be aware that the Chinese now have hypersonic missile capability, whereas the USA (and rest of NATO) doesn’t.
            Not exactly simple aerospace technology.
            And, yet, it was “not something they have done before”, and it nevertheless materialized “out of thin air”.

            Add to that example the Chinese space station currently under construction, and the recent successful Mars rover.

            History is replete with examples of complacent kings who thought they were untouchable at their zenith — only to be toppled by assumed “inferior” forces from outside.
            Stay tuned.

    • Frank:

      You have to ask What? Global Leadership !!!

      MAX debacle/tragedy and a 787 program that is stalled. Or is it the Space Capsule that can’t stand moisture? You know, the one with the thing sticking up in the air, clouds, rain (I mean its Floridian not Arizona!)

      Hopefully the teams working on the T-7 and MQ-25 can survive long enough for Calhoun to be gone and someone who has a long term outlook replaces him.

  23. Oil Prices and the Futures of Airtravel

    Airlines are back to hedging – the barrel at $80+ and many predict $100 or more for some time

    Hedging complexed by uncertainty as to future demand and what the bug will do next

    The spike is direct result of tarring and defunding the oil industry which makes sure that oil prices spike and stay spiked, handing oil companies massive profits and reduced investments

    And – a de facto fuel tax for airlines – how ironic

    Prices boosted by geopol confusions and failure of officialised green initiatives – Result : an oiler’s dream an airline’s nightmare

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/airlines-act-as-if-80-oil-is-heading-even-higher-1.1677510

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