• Strike creates gap for suppliers.
• Airbus places accelerated orders at some affected suppliers.
• Snapping up capacity may complicate Boeing’s post-strike recovery.

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By Scott Hamilton

Oct. 10, 2024, © Leeham News: There is no end in sight for the strike by the International Association of Machines and Aerospace Workers, District 751, ending its fourth week today.

The strike costs Boeing between $50m and $150m a day, depending on whose estimate you believe. (The world will have an understanding of the cost on Oct. 23, when Boeing reports its third-quarter financial results.)

A strike by the IAM 751 in 2008 lasted 57 days. Boeing lost an estimated $6bn in sales during this period and racked up more than $2bn in lost cash flow. It took Boeing about two years to fully recover from the strike. Then, Boeing didn’t have the overhang that it has today from five years of crises and an irate Federal Aviation Administration that oversees and restricts Boeing’s production.

But recovery, whenever it begins, has a new wrinkle that didn’t exist in 2008. Then, it was Airbus that was in disarray. Its A380 program was in shambles due to production issues. The fledging A350, Airbus’ answer to the Boeing 787, was being redesigned and tweaked for the fourth or fifth time due to poor market reception. The A400M program was an operational and financial disaster.

Today, Airbus is playing from a position of strength and dominance. Boeing is playing from a position of weakness and financial trauma.