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By Karl Sinclair

Nov. 14, 2024, © Leeham News: Airbus (AB) and Boeing (BA), the two largest commercial aircraft makers in the world, have a combined backlog of over $1tr in orders to deliver.

Both OEMs announced plans to increase production rates in the upcoming years to satisfy demand.

Airbus issued guidance for an increase to the A320neo family delivery rate of 75/mo by 2027. It is also targeting a rate of 14/mo on the A220 program by 2026.

Boeing previously projected a return to 50/mo on the 737 MAX family by mid-2025. However, LNA is told that internally, Boeing sees 2028 as a more likely timeframe. The consulting company Accenture thinks it will be five years (ie, 4Q2025) before Boeing achieves rate 50/mo.

Boeing’s 737 production rate was 52/mo on March 9, 2019, the day before the second MAX crash. Regulators worldwide began grounding the MAX on March 10. The Federal Aviation Administration grounded the US-registered MAXes on March 13 for what turned out to be 21 months.

Just how realistic are projections by Airbus and Boeing?